摘要
建立由数据库、模型库及图形显示系统组成的二化螟种群时间动态预测模拟系统，此系统可进行全省区域内二化螟种群时间动态的模拟测报绘图和种群时间动态影响因子分析。系统模型的有效性检验和灵敏度分析表明，预测的各地一代发生期比较接近田间实际发生期，计算绘出的全省各地发育进度和发生代次能反映出各地理区域的基本发生趋势。地理海拔、早稻收割、耕作制度等都将影响种群的时间动态。
A computer simulation system for prediction of population temporal dynamics of thestriped rice borer(SRB),ChilO suppressalis(Walker)in Zhejiang province was developed.The sys-tem consists of a database,a set of models and a subsystem of graphics,and can be used to simulateand predict the population temporal dynamics of SRB and analyze the influencing factors. The re-suIts of validation and sensitivity analysis revealed that the predictions matched well with the ob-served data for the first generation,and computer-produced maps of temporal dynamics depicted thetime dynamics through whole province reasonably well.The temporal dynamics of SRB could be ef-fected significantly by temperature,day-length, harvesting of early season rice, and the croppingsystem as well as elevation.
关键词
二化螟
种群时间动态
模拟系统
Chile suppressalis(Walker)
population temporal dynamics
simulation system
