摘要
利用浙江十里丰早稻白背飞虱种群动态调查和文献资料及系统分析技术组建了白背飞虱种群动态模拟模型。本文描述了模型结构及有效性检验，利用１９８３年至１９８９年的发生量达１１倍之差的９块早稻田间调查数据进行有效性险脸，表明所有田块模拟与实测主害代高峰期的差异在±５ｂ之内，７块田模拟主害代高峰虫量在田间实测值的±２０％区间之内之内。灵敏度分析表明模型对迁入格局和总迁入量相当敏感，迁入主峰早、迁入量大且集中，是大发生的征兆．近期迁入虫源是主要虫源；气温对早稻白背飞虱种群的影响不大。
simulation model of white-backed planthopper (WBPH)Sogatella furcifera (Horvath ),population dynamics on first season rice in Zhejiang province, China,was con-structed using field population data together with information from the documents。 In thispaper the model is described and its predictions are compared with independent sets of fielddata。 For nine data sets from 1983 to 1989.repersenting a 11-fold range of WBPH peak densi-ties,the time at the peak of the WBPH population was predicted within 5 days in all nine cas-es(acccuracy of observations 5 days ) The pcak density of the population was predicted within20%of the observed one in scven cases,Model parameters were varied within realistive limitsin order to determine the scnsitivity nf the model. The model was sensitive to changes in andamount of immigration.Simulation analysis showed that the earlier and the more the majorimmigration does,the larger thc pcak density is,and the reverse is true。 A very short concen-trated period and high level of WBPH immigrntion tshould result in damaging WBPH popula-tion。 Temperature condition has no significant cffect on peak WBPH population on first sea-son rice
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
1994年第2期188-195,共8页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金和国际科学基金
关键词
白背飞虱
模拟模型
种群动态
迁入
white-backed planthopper.simulation model,population dynamics,immigration。
