摘要
本文以１９８２～１９９２年安徽省棉花品种区域试验的年度平均皮棉产量及其组分和纤维品质指标为资料，建立ＧＭ（１．１）动态模型，对棉花新品种产量与纤维品质的发展趋势进行研究。结果表明，皮棉产量呈上升趋势，到２０００年可达１４７９．３６ｋｇ／ｈｍ２，产量组分中单株铃数、衣分呈上升趋势，单铃重呈下降趋势，分别可达２３．０５８个、４２．０５１％和４．５９ｇ。在纤维品质指标中，主体长度和细度均呈上升趋势，单强、断裂长度和成熟系数呈下降趋势，到２０００年分别可达３２．２８２ｍｍ、５７７８ｍ／ｇ、３．５３９ｇ、２１．３２６ｋｍ和１．４７ｇ。、－０．３１２和０．５５８。２．２纤维品质指标的发展趋势分析纤维品质指标主体长度、单强、细度、断裂长度以及成熟系数的ＧＭ（１．１）模型及精度（表４）。由表４所得模型预测值与实际值基本吻合，经检验，模型精度除断裂长度为三级外，其它均达一、二级标准，预测值可靠。利用表４模型预测１９９５、２０００年纤维品质指标，并以１９９１年为基数计算到２０００年安徽省棉花新品种纤维品质指标平均年递增、递减百分率（表５）。表５结果表明，９０年代棉花新品种纤维品质指标的发展趋势是：主体长度和细度升高，预计到２０?
A dynamic model GM( 1.1) has been developed on
the data basis of the yield,yield components, fiber quality of the varieties that joined the Anhui
Province RegionalVariety Test to predict and study the developing trend of yield and fiber
quality of the newcotton varieties. The results showed as follows : there is an increasing trend
of yield thatwill reach 1479. 36kg/hm2 in 2000. However, the developing trend of yield
componentsdiffers with each index. An increasing trend occurred for bolls per plant, lint
percent,model length and fiber fineness that will reach 23.06 bolls per plant, 42.05%,
32.28mmand 5778m/g, respectively. A decreasing trend occurred for boll weight, single
fiberstrength and breaking length and fiber maturity that will reach 4.59g/boll,3.54g, 21.33km
and 1.479, respectively.
出处
《棉花学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第4期213-216,共4页
Cotton Science
关键词
棉花
产量
纤维品质
预测
品种
安徽
cotton grey dynamic model GM(1.1)yield fiber quality
prediction
