摘要
本研究通过在不同生态棉区定点系统调查和定株观察表明，棉花铃病发生的关键因子是８月份降雨量，当月雨量１８０ｍｍ以上，其中连续５天日平均雨量达到或超过１０ｍｍ，铃病发生严重、并出现明显的烂铃高峰，其病铃一般占总烂铃６０％以上。综合南北棉区４个试验点的１９８０～１９９３年历年棉铃发病率与当年７、８、９三个月降雨量、雨日、温湿度等气象因素的相关性进行逐步回归分析，得出烂铃病发病程度的预测模型，即Ｙ＝０．０８９７１ｘ＋５．２７９７（ｘ为８月份雨量），应用这一模型，根据当年８月份的天气预报及结合本地棉花长势，可以预报当年棉花铃病发生轻重的趋势。
Results of systematic survey on fixed
pots and investigating on fixed plants infour cotton ecological regions showed that the rainfall
in August is the key factor causingcotton boll rot. When the precipitation rate in August reaches
above l80mm , with a five-day rainfall duration in which the average rainfall kept more than
10mm per day,theboll rot will occur heavily and the obvious peak time appear. Percent of rot
bolls in thisperiod was higher than 60 percent during the season。 Interrelationship was
analysed be-tween the rate of boll rot and the meteorological elements in July, August , and
Septem-ber. such asDreciDitation rate rainy days, temperature, and humidity in 1980～1993.
Theforecast model Y=0.08971x+5.2797(x=precipitation rate in August; Y=rate of bollrot) was
obtained using progressive regression analysis。 According to this model, weath-er forecast,
and cotton growth vigour in a certain area, the occurrence extent of boll rotcould be
predicated。
出处
《棉花学报》
CSCD
北大核心
1995年第3期175-178,共4页
Cotton Science
基金
"八五"科技攻关资助
关键词
棉花
烂铃
气象要素
预测
cotton boll rot meteorological factor prediction
