摘要
目的估计湖南省洪江区吸毒人数。方法应用捕获再捕获法对洪江区吸毒者人数进行估计,同时,应用最优分配随机分层抽样的方法验证。一种捕获再捕获法(CR1法)以抽样调查调查人数为第一次捕获,以公安部门登记在册687人为再捕获。应用Seber调整公式,计算估计吸毒人员总人数。另一种(CR2法)采用戒毒所登记的记录,以4个月为间隔,前后两次为捕获再捕获。最优分配随机分层抽样方法则采用访谈,获得数据。结果抽样调查共调查1388人,发现吸毒人员24人,占1.73%;洪江区总人口为72709人,估计总吸毒人数1258人。CR1法估计总吸毒人数904人;CR2法估计总吸毒人数1069人。三种估计数差别无统计学意义,但高于公安部门在册人数1.3～1.6倍。结论捕获再捕获法可以满足对吸毒人数的估计。
Objective To estimate the number of drug users in Hongjiang, Hunan and to develop strategy for drug reduction in the future. Methods Two capture-recapture methods were used to estimate the numbers of drug addicts. Random stratified sampling survey was used to verify the optimum allocation. The first capture-recapture method (CR1) referred to the number from optimum allocation random stratified sampling survey conducted in the communities and the number from local Public Security Bureau list being the second capture. The second capture-recapture method (CR2) referred to the collection of records in the detoxification unit with an interval of 4 months. The estimated number was calculated under Seber’s adjustment formula. Face to face interview was carried out during the optimum allocation random stratified sampling survey process. Results Of 1388 interviewed in the communities, 24( 1.73%) were identified as drug addicts under the optimum allocation random stratified sampling survey. When the figure 1.73% was applied to the total population ( 72 709) in Hongjiang, the result yielded an estimation of 1258 drug addicts. The estimated numbers of CR1 and CR2 were 904 and 1069 respectively. However, the number was 1.3 to 1.6 fold higher than the reported number (687) by local Public Security Bureau. Conclusion The capture-recapture method seemed a better method in estimating the number of drug addicts.
出处
《中华流行病学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第6期417-420,共4页
Chinese Journal of Epidemiology
基金
卫生部科技司2002年度资助课题项目(WA20020301)
