摘要
油气钻井核心技术的筛选对于科学合理地制定我国油气钻井科技发展战略具有重要意义.技术筛选是一个决策问题,它能带来效益,也伴随着风险.因而,有效地分析决策的安全程度或风险程度对确保决策成功具有重要意义.在AHP(层次分析法)决策方法的基础上,提出了一种考虑安全性的油气钻井核心技术筛选方法.该方法同时构造判断矩阵和安全矩阵,根据含有安全性考虑的决策向量进行决策排序.以油气钻井核心技术筛选为例,给出了在不同安全系数下今后5～10年支撑我国油气钻井科技发展战略的核心技术总排序.实例表明,安全系数的大小对决策结果有重要影响.因此,在应用AHP方法进行决策时,应考虑安全性.
In 21st century, the petroleum exploration and development have been meeting with these reservoirs with low porosity and permeability, deep burial and difficult geological conditions, and the oil & gas drilling has faced many new challenges. The screen of the key techniques for oil & gas drilling and the effective analysis of the safety level or risk minimization of decision-making are of great importance to ensuring the success of decision-making. A method of screening the key techniques for oil & gas drilling in consideration of safety is put forward in the paper on the basis of analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and it can make judgement matrix and safety matrix at the same time. The decision-making ordering may be carried but according to the decision-making vector considering safety. By taking the screen of the key techniques for oil & gas drilling as an example, a general ordering of the key techniques, which will support the scientific and technological development strategy in oil & gas drilling in China for 5-10 years in the future, was put forward under different safety factors. The example indicated that the safety factor had great effect on the decision results, so the safety should be considered when the AHP was used for decision-making.
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第4期77-78,82,共3页
Natural Gas Industry
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(50234030)
国家"十五"重大科技攻关项目(2001-BA605A)资助
关键词
安全性
安全系数
层次分析法
核心技术
钻井技术
AHP法
矩阵
Accident prevention
Decision making
Petroleum reservoirs
Screening
Strategic planning
Vectors
