摘要
以吉林省西部长岭县为研究区,在RS和GIS技术支持下,对长岭县1995年和2000年两时期遥感图像数据进行处理,获得研究区土地利用/覆盖现状图,在分析土地利用现状的基础上,求得土地利用变化转移矩阵;应用马尔柯夫随机模型对长岭县未来几十年土地时空变化过程进行了模拟分析和定量预测。结果表明:2000-2050年,长岭县的土地利用变化趋势是耕地面积增加1.77%,草地面积逐渐减少1.1%,未利用地面积大约减少0.91%,林地、水域、居工用地变化不大。
This paper mainly focused on Changling County in the west of Jilin province. Based on RS and GIS techniques, Land use/cover map was acquired through dealing with the two remote sensing images of Changling County in 1995 and 2000. Transfer matrix on land use change was achieved on the basis of analyzing the land use status. Markov Random Field model was applied to simulate analysis and quantitatively forecast the land use spatial-temporal change of the Changling County in the next few decades. The results indicate that, from 2000 to 2050, the area of the arable land will increase by 1. 77%; the grassland and wasteland will decrease by 1.1% and 0.91% respectively; however, the forest land, water land and resident land will change a little.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期16-19,共4页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国际科技合作计划专项项目(2007DFA20640)
国家科技支撑计划课题(2006BAJ05A012006BAJ09B062006BAJ09B03)
