摘要
针对恶劣气候条件下,出行概率与影响交通出行的气候条件、出行距离和安全设施等因素的内在关系,对出行概率与出行距离、气候特征等定量变量进行统计回归分析,并建立了模型.模型的复相关系数为84%,残差检验表明模型的线性假定成立.综合考虑安全设施对模型的影响,给出出行概率与各影响因素的综合数学模型.分析结果表明恶劣气候严重程度与交通出行概率成反比关系,恶劣气候条件下,出行距离与出行概率成正比关系,而不同的恶劣气候条件、车辆出行距离、道路安全设施完善程度对高速公路交通出行综合影响幅度在10%～50%之间.
In order to analyzing the relations of vehicle trip probability with weather condition, trip distance and transportation safety facilities, the paper surveyed the number of vehicle trip at Shang-Kai freeway in severe weather, set up the regress models of vehicle trip probability with weather condition and trip distance. The complex correlativity coefficient of the models is 84%. Based on the influence of transportation safety facilities on the models, the paper summarized a compositive math model of vehicle trip probability. The results indicate that the vehicle trip probability has a direct proportion relation with trip distance and inverse proportion relation with severe weather condition, their influence degrees are 10%-50%.
出处
《交通运输工程学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第1期124-126,共3页
Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50078015)
关键词
交通安全
恶劣气候
统计分析
车辆出行
Highway systems
Mathematical models
Probability
Statistical methods
Weather modification
