摘要
本文提出了以水库防洪库容的“极值差”代表一个将能在给定时段内提供可靠蓄洪量的新概念，在拟定的防洪调度方式下，通过随机模拟生成的入库设计洪水过程的调洪演算，确定了“极值差”的统计参数及其概率分布。利用该方法进行防洪调度风险评估，综合体现了工程运用时主观和客观的不确定性。与过去的风险分析方法相比较，能更真实地反映出在当前水情和工情条件下超过现行设计防洪库容的风险率。文中的实例计算与分析表明这种方法是有效可行的。
The author presents a new concept in which “diffirences between extremum values”of reservoirflood storage represents reliable flood storage in givin period.Under the Planned flood dispatching pattern,statistical pararneters and probability dlstribution of diffirences between extremum values are determined byflood regulating routing of reservoir inflow design flood process which were formed through,stochastic simu-lation,Application of the method in risk assassment for flood control dispatching can comprehensively reflectsubject and object uncertainty during reservoir operation. Comparing with previous risk assassrnent method,the present rnethod can reallstically show risk rate which surpasses the present design flood storage undercurrent water regime and behavlour.The computations and analysis in this paper proves the method effectiveand feasible。
出处
《四川水力发电》
1994年第4期25-28,共4页
Sichuan Hydropower
关键词
水库
防洪
防洪调度
极值差
风险分析
diffirences between extremum values,flood control dispatching,risk.
