摘要
在假定某一地区的来水状况是一无限延续的贝努利试验的前提下，基于概率论的有关理论及轮次理论的基本原理，研究了轮次长度为八年的多年持续洪灾的概率分布Ｒｌ，ｋ（ｎ），给出了其求解方程．同时，根据概率论中概率母函数的基本概念，推导出了轮次长度为六年的多年持续洪灾的重现期Ｔｋ的均值和方差的理论公式；并在假定Ｔｋ服从正态分布的条件下，给出了任一显著性水平下Ｔｋ的置信区间．并用于对长江宜昌站的洪峰流量资料进行验证．
Under the prerequisite to suppose that the inflow in a area is alimitless continuous Banuli test, based on the relative theories or Probabilitytheory and the basic principle of runs theory, the probabilitive distribution Rik(n)of a multiycar persistent nood disaster is studied that the run length is k years,and the solving equations arc given in this paper. At the same hmc, the theoreticformula or the expectation and variance of its recurrence duration Tk are derived,and suppose Tk is obediend to normal distribution, the confidence interval of Tkunder any confidence level is given. This method is verified by the peak dischargeofyichan station on Yangtze.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
1994年第1期13-20,共8页
Water Resources and Power
关键词
洪灾
轮次
重现期
概率分析
flood disaster, runs, probability mother function, recurrenceduration, confidence interval
