摘要
本文提出一种地震综合预报方法,即权重集成法。该方法首先根据各单项前兆或方法历史预报的错报率,计算其权重值,据此建立权重集成预报方程。其后据此方程采用历史回代法求其权重集成值P,最后根据历史上对应有震的权重集成的最小值和对应无震的最大值,求出权重集成值的临界阀值P_0。当P≥P_0时则作有震预报,否则作无震预报。该方法简便、综合性强。
In this paper, a method of synthetical earthquake prediction, the weight integration method, is suggested. At first, according to the wrong prediction rates of various precursors or methods in the past, the weight values of the precursors or methods are calculated and the prediction equation of weight intera-tion is set up, and then the weight values are used to get weight integration value P and it's threshold value P0 is obtained through using the minimum value corresponding to earthquake occurrrcnce and the maximum value corresponding to no earthquake occurrence in the past. As a result, if P≥P0, prediction with earthquake occurrence is issued, if not, prediction without earthquake occurrence is issued. The method is simple and suitable to earthquake prediction.
出处
《地震研究》
CSCD
北大核心
1993年第3期267-271,共5页
Journal of Seismological Research
关键词
综合预报
权重集成法
地震
Synthetical earthquake prediction, weight integration method, Threshold value.
