摘要
利用游程检验方法,对阿拉善黄鼠鼠疫自然疫源地1930～1962年的人间鼠疫和1963～1990年动物鼠疫流行动态资料进行分析研究,发现鼠疫动物病流行与未流行年份有比较明显的周期过程(P<0.001)。利用灰色灾变预测模型GM(1,1),预测下一个周期鼠疫动物病可能流行的年份。在动物鼠疫可能不流行的周期,对病原和血清学监测,试提出几种剖检鼠类和血凝试验的数量指标。
According to the dynamic epidemic data of human plague in 1930-1962 and plague of rats in 1963-1990, the runs testing method and the grey calamity model GM (1,1) were conducted for the law of plague epizootic in epidemic years and nonepidemic years in natural foci of citellus alachanicus plague. It appeared that there might exist some kinds of yearly cycles (P< 0.001). The endemic trends of plague zoonosis of citellus was given. Some indexes numbers of dissect autopsy and coomb's experiment were raised for surveillance of cause of disease and serological diagnosis
出处
《地方病通报》
1993年第1期90-93,共4页
Endemic Diseases Bulletin
关键词
鼠疫
预测
监测
流行病学
Plague
Epidemic
Cycle
Citellus alachanicus
Runs testing method
Grey calamity model
Forecast
Surveillance
