摘要
目的应用捕获再捕获方法估计恶性肿瘤死亡人数,评价癌症登记处收集恶性肿瘤死亡资料的完整性.方法收集林州市癌症登记处、民政和公安3个来源2004至2005年的恶性肿瘤死亡登记资料.用居住地址、姓名、性别、身份证编码、死亡时间、死亡原因等变量对不同来源数据进行匹配.利用3个数据来源的对数线性泊松模型估计林州市2004至2005年实际的恶性肿瘤死亡人数.结果捕获-再捕获法估计林州市2004至2005年恶性肿瘤死亡数为3140例(95%CI:3124~3.161),比合并样本多71例;对数线性模型中的交互项显示来源间存在的相依性为正,表明在使用两样本的情况下,会造成缺失病人的低估;用捕获-再捕获得到的校正值作分母,癌症登记处的漏报率为6.6%.结论运用捕获一再捕获法对恶性肿瘤死亡登记进行估计,可以校正因漏报而造成的数值误差,获得较准确的恶性肿瘤死亡人数.
objective To estimate the number of death from malignant tumor and to 8888 the.completeness of cancer registry data using the capture-recapture method.Methods Data about death form malignant tumor were collected during the period of 2004 and 2005 from cancer registry,civil administration and police registries in Linzhou.Cases in every source were matched on the address,name,sex,ID card,date of death,cause of death.A 3-source log liner poisson model was used to estimate the real number of death from malignant tumor during the period of 2004 and 2005 in Linzhou.Results The real number of death from malignant tumor that estimated by capture recapture method was 3140(95%CI:3124-3161)during 2004-2005 year in Linzhou.Underreported number by source linkage was 71.Log-liner model demonstrated positive dependence between the 3 sources,implying that 2-8ource model would underetimate missing cases.Using the mortality number estimated by the capture-recapture as the denominator,under-reporting rate of cancer registry was 6.6%.Conclusion It is feasible to estimate the real number of death from malignant tumor and to correcet data bias by applying the capture-recapture method.
作者
周萍
王保周
全培良
刘曙正
陆建邦
孙喜斌
ZHOU Ping;WANG Bao-zhou;QUAN Pei-liang;HU Shu-zheng;LU Jian-bang;SUN Xi-bin(College of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450008,China;不详)
出处
《中华预防医学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2007年第S01期101-103,共3页
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
关键词
数据收集
肿瘤
登记
Data clollection
Neoplasms
Registrics
