摘要
本文在产品—市场二维层面构建了一个允许同类产品在不同目标市场上具有差异的出口技术含量指标,并通过扩展动态OP方法,将中国制造业出口技术含量变化分解为四个来源:目标市场选择效应、技术进步效应、产品—技术配置效应和产品更替效应。基于2000—2015年中国海关出口数据,研究发现:中国制造业出口技术含量增长的首要来源是产品—技术配置效应,代表了制造业产品在全球价值链上的战略性攀升过程是增长的核心原因;技术进步效应和目标市场选择效应处于第二梯队,但是前者强于后者,推动生产技术进步比策略性选择目标市场更有助于中国制造业出口技术含量的提升;2008年金融危机前后目标市场选择效应由正转负、技术进步效应由负转正,意味着中国制造业正在经历转型升级;产品更替效应较弱,出口市场上新旧产品的更替不能有效解释中国制造业出口技术含量的增长趋势。
This paper,from the two-dimensional perspective of product and market,constructed an index for the export technology content that allowed similar products to have differences of technology content in different target export markets.Through employing and expanding the dynamic Olley-Pakes(DOP)method,this study attributes the changes in China’s manufacturing export technology content to four sources:target market selection effect,technological progress effect,product-technology allocation effect,and product replacement effect.Based on the export data of China Customs from 2000 to 2015,the study finds that:the primary source of the growth in China’s manufacturing export technology content is the product-technology allocation effect,which further indicates that the strategic rising of manufacturing products in the global value chain is the core reason for technological growth;technological progress effects and target market selection effect constitute the second major source,but the former is stronger than the latter.This indicates that advancing the progress of production technology is more conducive to the improvement of the technology content of China’s manufacturing exports than the strategic selection of target markets;before and after the 2008 financial crisis,the target market selection effect changed from positive to negative,while the effect of technological progress changed from negative to positive,which means that China’s manufacturing industry is undergoing transformation and upgrading;the product replacement effect is weak,which indicates that the replacement of old products by new ones in the export market cannot effectively explain the growth trend of China’s manufacturing export technology content.
作者
窦钱斌
李孜
DOU Qianbin;LI Zi
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第7期37-53,共17页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“中国制造业与服务业协调发展研究”(16BJY072)
上海社会科学院“经济学学科一流博士生教育引领计划”项目“数字普惠金融驱动中国出口贸易高质量发展的新动能与新机制研究”
关键词
制造业
出口技术含量
目标市场
比较优势
DOP分解
Manufacturing
Export Technology Content
Target Market
Comparative Advantage
DOP Decomposition
