摘要
虚拟电厂是当前国家开展新型电力系统建设的一个重要方向,其对促进电网供需平衡、清洁能源充分消纳以及实现双碳目标等具有重要意义。作为电力“智能管家”,虚拟电厂的核心作用是利用通信技术等聚合源网荷储资源,实现系统内发电和用电调控平衡,解决电力紧张和能效偏低的矛盾。本文基于虚拟电厂在国内外的发展概况,从战略、技术、市场等八个维度构建我国虚拟电厂运营风险评价指标体系,利用云模型对某虚拟电厂进行风险评价。根据期望值结果,八个维度中的技术风险最大,尤其是核心技术专利数量、智能电表普及率和能源综合利用率三个指标排名前三位,需要持续关注;根据熵值结果,自然资源风险和战略风险的风险值跨度大,说明风险的不确定性较大;根据超熵结果,八个维度的风险超熵值差异都不大,云模型的评价结果较准确。基于此,建议构建虚拟电厂建设标准和并网调度规则,推动落实需求响应政策,鼓励虚拟电厂参与电力市场交易。同时,设计针对“集中—分散”模式的“收益—风险联动”分配机制,增强虚拟电厂对内和对外协调能力。
Virtual power plants play a crucial role in the development of new power systems in China.They are instrumental in achieving supply-demand balance in the power grid,maximizing the utilization of clean energy,and supporting the dual carbon goals.As intelligent electricity managers,virtual power plants leverage communication technology and aggregate resources such as load storage to effectively balance power generation and consumption within the system.They address the challenges posed by power shortages and low energy efficiency.This article is based on the development overview of virtual power plants both domestically and internationally,and constructs an operational risk evaluation index system for virtual power plants in China from eight dimensions:strategy,technology,market and so on.A cloud model is used to evaluate the risk.According to the expected value results,the technology risk is the highest among the eight dimensions,especially in the top three indicators of the number of core technology patents,the popularity of smart meters,and the comprehensive utilization rate of energy,which require continuous attention.According to the entropy value results,the risk value spans of natural resource risk and strategic risk are large,indicating a high degree of uncertainty.According to the results,there is not much difference,the evaluation results of the cloud model are more accurate.Based on this,it is recommended to establish standards for the construction of virtual power plants and grid connection scheduling rules.Additionally,the implementation of demand response policies should be promoted,and virtual power plants should be encouraged to participate in electricity market transactions.Furthermore,a“profit-risk linkage”allocation mechanism for the“centralized-decentralized”model should be designed to enhance the internal and external coordination capabilities of virtual power plants.
作者
侯琳娜
蒙莹枝
苏菊宁
李明
HOU Linna;MENG Yingzhi;SU Juning;LI Ming
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2023年第6期156-161,共6页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目“产品智联驱动我国制造企业服务化转型机制与对策研究”(20BGL018)。
关键词
虚拟电厂
运营风险评价指标
组合赋权
云模型
virtual power plant
operational risk assessment indicators
combined weight
cloud model
