Research on grassland carrying capacity(GCC)and forage-livestock balance is of great significance for promoting the harmonious development of human and grassland.However,the lack of understanding of GCC and forage-liv...Research on grassland carrying capacity(GCC)and forage-livestock balance is of great significance for promoting the harmonious development of human and grassland.However,the lack of understanding of GCC and forage-livestock balance in the agro-pastoral transition zone of northern China has limited the grassland sustainable development.Here,the spatial and temporal characteristics of GCC and forage-livestock balance in the grassland of agro-pastoral transition zone of northern China from 2000 to 2022 were analyzed using meteorological data and remote sensing data.Geographical detectors and geographically weighted regression were also used to identify the driving factors and their interactions with GCC changes.Moreover,future GCC trends were predicted using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 dataset.Results revealed that:(1)GCC showed an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2022 but with significant inter-annual fluctuations.Its spatial distribution decreased gradually from north to south and from east to west.Precipitation,temperature,and cumulative solar radiation were the main drivers of the inter-annual variation of GCC,and the interaction between precipitation and temperature was the main influencing factor of the spatial distribution of GCC;(2)the forage-livestock balance was in an overloaded state in most years,but its index remained basically stable.Spatially,grazing overloading was mainly distributed in northeastern area and the severe overloading was mainly distributed in northwestern area;and(3)future projections indicated a downward trend in potential GCC.Under shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)2-4.5 scenario,the potential GCC had a ranged of 1.38×10^(7)-1.86×10^(7)standard sheep unit(SHU)and a mean of 1.60×10^(7)SHU.Meanwhile,the potential GCC under SSP5-8.5 scenario had a range of 1.18×10^(7)-1.69×10^(7)SHU and a mean of 1.49×10^(7)SHU.These results indicated that although GCC of the agro-pastoral transition zone of northern China showed an overall increasing trend from 2000 to 2022,the forage-livestock balance index remained basically stable.The GCC was predicted to show a decreasing trend in the future.The findings provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of grassland and the optimization of grazing management policies in this area.展开更多
Global climate change creates critical challenges with increasing temperature,reducing snowpack,and changing precipitation for water,energy,and food,as well as ecosystem processes at regional scales.Ecosystem services...Global climate change creates critical challenges with increasing temperature,reducing snowpack,and changing precipitation for water,energy,and food,as well as ecosystem processes at regional scales.Ecosystem services provide life support,goods,and natural resources from water,energy,and food,as well as the environments.There are knowledge gaps from the lack of conceptual framework and practices to interlink major climate change drivers of water resources with water-energy-food nexus and related ecosystem processes.This paper provided an overview of research background,developed a conceptual framework to bridge these knowledge gaps,summarized California case studies for practices in cross sector ecosystem services,and identified future research needs.In this conceptual framework,climate change drivers of changing temperature,snowpack,and precipitation are interlinked with life cycles in water,energy,food,and related key elements in ecosystem processes.Case studies in California indicated climate change affected variation in increasing temperature and changing hydrology at the regional scales.A large variation in average energy intensity values was also estimated from ground water and federal,state,and local water supplies both within each hydrological region and among the ten hydrological regions in California.The increased regional temperature,changes in snowpack and precipitation,and increased water stresses from drought can reduce ecosystem services and affect the water and energy nexus and agricultural food production,as well as fish and wildlife habitats in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta(Delta)and Central Valley watersheds.Regional decisions and practices in integrated management of water,energy,food,and related ecosystem processes are essential to adapt and mitigate global climate change impacts at the regional scales.Science and policy support for interdisciplinary research are critical to develop the database and tools for comprehensive analysis to fill knowledge gaps and address ecosystem service complexity,the related natural resource investment,and integrated planning needs.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42271309)the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province(2024JC-YBMS-194).
文摘Research on grassland carrying capacity(GCC)and forage-livestock balance is of great significance for promoting the harmonious development of human and grassland.However,the lack of understanding of GCC and forage-livestock balance in the agro-pastoral transition zone of northern China has limited the grassland sustainable development.Here,the spatial and temporal characteristics of GCC and forage-livestock balance in the grassland of agro-pastoral transition zone of northern China from 2000 to 2022 were analyzed using meteorological data and remote sensing data.Geographical detectors and geographically weighted regression were also used to identify the driving factors and their interactions with GCC changes.Moreover,future GCC trends were predicted using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 dataset.Results revealed that:(1)GCC showed an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2022 but with significant inter-annual fluctuations.Its spatial distribution decreased gradually from north to south and from east to west.Precipitation,temperature,and cumulative solar radiation were the main drivers of the inter-annual variation of GCC,and the interaction between precipitation and temperature was the main influencing factor of the spatial distribution of GCC;(2)the forage-livestock balance was in an overloaded state in most years,but its index remained basically stable.Spatially,grazing overloading was mainly distributed in northeastern area and the severe overloading was mainly distributed in northwestern area;and(3)future projections indicated a downward trend in potential GCC.Under shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)2-4.5 scenario,the potential GCC had a ranged of 1.38×10^(7)-1.86×10^(7)standard sheep unit(SHU)and a mean of 1.60×10^(7)SHU.Meanwhile,the potential GCC under SSP5-8.5 scenario had a range of 1.18×10^(7)-1.69×10^(7)SHU and a mean of 1.49×10^(7)SHU.These results indicated that although GCC of the agro-pastoral transition zone of northern China showed an overall increasing trend from 2000 to 2022,the forage-livestock balance index remained basically stable.The GCC was predicted to show a decreasing trend in the future.The findings provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of grassland and the optimization of grazing management policies in this area.
文摘Global climate change creates critical challenges with increasing temperature,reducing snowpack,and changing precipitation for water,energy,and food,as well as ecosystem processes at regional scales.Ecosystem services provide life support,goods,and natural resources from water,energy,and food,as well as the environments.There are knowledge gaps from the lack of conceptual framework and practices to interlink major climate change drivers of water resources with water-energy-food nexus and related ecosystem processes.This paper provided an overview of research background,developed a conceptual framework to bridge these knowledge gaps,summarized California case studies for practices in cross sector ecosystem services,and identified future research needs.In this conceptual framework,climate change drivers of changing temperature,snowpack,and precipitation are interlinked with life cycles in water,energy,food,and related key elements in ecosystem processes.Case studies in California indicated climate change affected variation in increasing temperature and changing hydrology at the regional scales.A large variation in average energy intensity values was also estimated from ground water and federal,state,and local water supplies both within each hydrological region and among the ten hydrological regions in California.The increased regional temperature,changes in snowpack and precipitation,and increased water stresses from drought can reduce ecosystem services and affect the water and energy nexus and agricultural food production,as well as fish and wildlife habitats in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta(Delta)and Central Valley watersheds.Regional decisions and practices in integrated management of water,energy,food,and related ecosystem processes are essential to adapt and mitigate global climate change impacts at the regional scales.Science and policy support for interdisciplinary research are critical to develop the database and tools for comprehensive analysis to fill knowledge gaps and address ecosystem service complexity,the related natural resource investment,and integrated planning needs.
