摘要
Research on grassland carrying capacity(GCC)and forage-livestock balance is of great significance for promoting the harmonious development of human and grassland.However,the lack of understanding of GCC and forage-livestock balance in the agro-pastoral transition zone of northern China has limited the grassland sustainable development.Here,the spatial and temporal characteristics of GCC and forage-livestock balance in the grassland of agro-pastoral transition zone of northern China from 2000 to 2022 were analyzed using meteorological data and remote sensing data.Geographical detectors and geographically weighted regression were also used to identify the driving factors and their interactions with GCC changes.Moreover,future GCC trends were predicted using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 dataset.Results revealed that:(1)GCC showed an overall upward trend from 2000 to 2022 but with significant inter-annual fluctuations.Its spatial distribution decreased gradually from north to south and from east to west.Precipitation,temperature,and cumulative solar radiation were the main drivers of the inter-annual variation of GCC,and the interaction between precipitation and temperature was the main influencing factor of the spatial distribution of GCC;(2)the forage-livestock balance was in an overloaded state in most years,but its index remained basically stable.Spatially,grazing overloading was mainly distributed in northeastern area and the severe overloading was mainly distributed in northwestern area;and(3)future projections indicated a downward trend in potential GCC.Under shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)2-4.5 scenario,the potential GCC had a ranged of 1.38×10^(7)-1.86×10^(7)standard sheep unit(SHU)and a mean of 1.60×10^(7)SHU.Meanwhile,the potential GCC under SSP5-8.5 scenario had a range of 1.18×10^(7)-1.69×10^(7)SHU and a mean of 1.49×10^(7)SHU.These results indicated that although GCC of the agro-pastoral transition zone of northern China showed an overall increasing trend from 2000 to 2022,the forage-livestock balance index remained basically stable.The GCC was predicted to show a decreasing trend in the future.The findings provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of grassland and the optimization of grazing management policies in this area.
基金
supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42271309)
the Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province(2024JC-YBMS-194).
