In this paper,we propose a Zika transmission model which considers human-to-human sexual transmission,the extrinsic incubation period of mosquitoes,and the vector-bias effect.Firstly,the explicit expression of the bas...In this paper,we propose a Zika transmission model which considers human-to-human sexual transmission,the extrinsic incubation period of mosquitoes,and the vector-bias effect.Firstly,the explicit expression of the basic reproduction number R_(0) is given by using the next-generation operator method,and the global dynamics of the model are established by taking R_(0) as the threshold condition,that is,if R_(0)≤1,the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable,if R_(0)>1,the model has a unique endemic equilibrium that is locally asymptotically stable and the disease persists.And when we ignore the vector-bias effect,the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium is proved by constructing a Lyapunov function.Then,we select the reported epidemic data from Brazil for fitting,which verifies the obtained theoretical results.Meanwhile,we study the impact of human-to-human sexual transmission rate and mosquito-tohuman transmission rate on the spread and prevalence of Zika.In addition,we calculate the sensitivity indices of R_(0) to the model parameters and provide effective measures to control Zika transmission.The simulation results indicate that extending the extrinsic incubation period of mosquitoes is beneficial for disease control while ignoring the vectorbias effect will underestimate the risk of Zika transmission.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11801431)the Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China(2021JM-445,2022JM-023).
文摘In this paper,we propose a Zika transmission model which considers human-to-human sexual transmission,the extrinsic incubation period of mosquitoes,and the vector-bias effect.Firstly,the explicit expression of the basic reproduction number R_(0) is given by using the next-generation operator method,and the global dynamics of the model are established by taking R_(0) as the threshold condition,that is,if R_(0)≤1,the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable,if R_(0)>1,the model has a unique endemic equilibrium that is locally asymptotically stable and the disease persists.And when we ignore the vector-bias effect,the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium is proved by constructing a Lyapunov function.Then,we select the reported epidemic data from Brazil for fitting,which verifies the obtained theoretical results.Meanwhile,we study the impact of human-to-human sexual transmission rate and mosquito-tohuman transmission rate on the spread and prevalence of Zika.In addition,we calculate the sensitivity indices of R_(0) to the model parameters and provide effective measures to control Zika transmission.The simulation results indicate that extending the extrinsic incubation period of mosquitoes is beneficial for disease control while ignoring the vectorbias effect will underestimate the risk of Zika transmission.
