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Construction of School-Enterprise Community Education Model for Software Technology Specialty Driven by Information Technology Application Innovation Industry:Taking Shanwei Institute of Technology as an Example
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作者 Xiaorong Ye Zhirui Wu Yanzhao Liang 《Journal of Contemporary Educational Research》 2025年第7期70-77,共8页
The software technology field is facing new talent demands brought by the Information Technology Application Innovation(ITAI)industry.This paper takes Shanwei Institute of Technology as an example to deeply explore th... The software technology field is facing new talent demands brought by the Information Technology Application Innovation(ITAI)industry.This paper takes Shanwei Institute of Technology as an example to deeply explore the construction of a school-enterprise community education model driven by the ITAI industry.It establishes the Kirin Workshop training base to facilitate talent cultivation,integrates the ITAI Application Adaptation Center to enhance technical capabilities,cooperates with Liqi Technology to establish an industrial college for government talent training,adjusts the professional curriculum system,and arranges for students to participate in ITAI vocational skills competitions.The school-enterprise collaborative cultivation mechanism meets the talent needs of the ITAI field,with effective practical results.This paper also points out the shortcomings of the school-enterprise collaborative education model in the ITAI industry and provides optimization methods to explore new paths for industry-education integration and serve the development of regional and national ITAI industries^([1]). 展开更多
关键词 Information technology Application Innovation(ITAI)industry School-enterprise cooperation Education model Software technology specialty
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Research on the Optimization of Digital Technology-Based Higher Education Teaching Models
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作者 Yuanwei Zhao 《Journal of Contemporary Educational Research》 2025年第6期100-105,共6页
With the advancement of digital technology,new technologies such as artificial intelligence,big data,and cloud computing have gradually permeated higher education,leading to fundamental changes in teaching and learnin... With the advancement of digital technology,new technologies such as artificial intelligence,big data,and cloud computing have gradually permeated higher education,leading to fundamental changes in teaching and learning methods.Therefore,in the process of reforming and developing higher education,it is essential to take digital technology empowering the optimization of the education industry as a breakthrough,focusing on five key areas:the construction of smart classrooms,the digital integration of teaching resources,the development of personalized learning support systems,the reform of online-offline hybrid teaching,and the intelligentization of educational management.This paper also examines the experiences,challenges,and shortcomings of typical universities in using digital technology to improve teaching quality,optimize resource allocation,and innovate teaching management models.Finally,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to facilitate the smooth implementation of digital transformation in higher education institutions. 展开更多
关键词 Digital technology Higher education Teaching model optimization Smart classroom Hybrid teaching
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Leveraging Green AI Technology to Build Sustainable Schools:A Conceptual Model Based on AI Agents
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作者 Yiting Qiu Yihan Lu +2 位作者 Guoqing Xia Md Munir Hayet Khan Deshinta Arrova Dewi 《Journal of Electronic Research and Application》 2025年第2期150-158,共9页
The integration of Green Artificial Intelligence(AI)technologies into educational systems offers a promising avenue to enhance operational efficiency while addressing sustainability challenges.Through a rigorous three... The integration of Green Artificial Intelligence(AI)technologies into educational systems offers a promising avenue to enhance operational efficiency while addressing sustainability challenges.Through a rigorous three-phase methodology combining literature review,AI agent development,and participatory workshop-based case analysis,this paper highlights the pivotal role of AI agents,as applications of Green AI technologies,in driving transformative outcomes within schools.By directly improving self-learning efficiency and reducing learning costs for students,enhancing management and service efficiency,reducing labor costs for schools,as well as minimizing resource dependence for both teachers and students,AI agents create a foundation for sustainable operations.These direct effects generate positive spillover effects,cascading into broader outcomes,including innovation performance,economic efficiency,and environmental sustainability,aligning with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs).By presenting a comprehensive conceptual model,this study demonstrates the pathways through which Green AI contributes to sustainable development in education and emphasizes its critical role in bridging technological innovation with sustainability.This framework provides significant theoretical insights for further empirical research while offering actionable strategies for policymakers and educators to harness Green AI for building sustainable schools with a student-centered approach. 展开更多
关键词 Green AI technology AI agents Conceptual model Spillover effects Sustainable development
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Systematic Literature Review of Technology Acceptance Models in Learning Management Systems(LMSs)
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作者 Rizki Ismail Hasibuan Iskandar Muda Sambas Ade Kesuma 《Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing》 2025年第2期71-80,共10页
The integration of Learning Management Systems(LMSs)into educational settings is becoming increasingly common,especially in the digital field.Understanding the factors influencing the acceptance and effective use of L... The integration of Learning Management Systems(LMSs)into educational settings is becoming increasingly common,especially in the digital field.Understanding the factors influencing the acceptance and effective use of LMS is essential to ensure successful implementation.The Technology Acceptance Model(TAM)has been widely used to check user acceptance of various technologies,including LMS.This study conducted a systematic literature review(SLR)to analyze existing research on the application of TAM in the context of LMS.A comprehensive search of the academic database was conducted to identify relevant studies published in 2010-2025.The review synthesizes findings related to the core constructs of TAM—Perceived Usability,Perceived Ease of Use,Behavioral Intent,and Actual Use—as well as extended factors such as system quality,self-efficacy,and social influence.The results reveal circumstantial evidence supporting the predictive power of TAM in LMS adoption,while also highlighting emerging trends and gaps in the literature.This review contributes to a deeper understanding of user acceptance in a digital learning environment and provides recommendations for future research and practical LMS implementation strategies. 展开更多
关键词 technology Acceptance model E-Learning Management System systematic literature review
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Research on the Application of Digital Modeling Technology in Nixing Pottery from the Perspective of Maker Education Theory
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作者 Jiaqing Lyu Xue Bai Zhi Liao 《Journal of Contemporary Educational Research》 2025年第7期152-157,共6页
In the context of global digital transformation and the rising prominence of maker education,this study explores the innovative integration of digital modeling technologies with traditional Nixing Pottery craftsmanshi... In the context of global digital transformation and the rising prominence of maker education,this study explores the innovative integration of digital modeling technologies with traditional Nixing Pottery craftsmanship.By constructing a teaching framework under maker education theory,the research investigates how 3D modeling,CAD design,and 3D printing technologies can empower learners to address challenges in cultural heritage preservation and artistic innovation.Through experimental teaching and case analysis,the study verifies that this integrated approach significantly enhances learners’digital literacy,creative thinking,and cultural identity while optimizing Nixing Pottery’s production processes and design possibilities.The findings contribute to theoretical models of technology-enhanced craft education and provide practical pathways for the digital transformation of intangible cultural heritage. 展开更多
关键词 Maker education theory Digital modeling technology Nixing Pottery Educational innovation Cultural heritage digitization 3D printing Cross-disciplinary education Artisan revitalization
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数字技术视角下中国制造业碳排放的驱动因素与趋势研究——基于随机森林与STIRPAT模型的综合分析
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作者 李娟伟 冉临璇 《开发研究》 2025年第2期62-75,共14页
为了探究数字技术等因素对制造业碳排放的影响,综合利用随机森林与STIRPAT模型,选取我国2008—2021年省际面板数据,对比考察数字技术相关因素与经济发展、人口等传统因素对制造业碳排放影响的差异,并根据不同情景对省际制造业碳排放的... 为了探究数字技术等因素对制造业碳排放的影响,综合利用随机森林与STIRPAT模型,选取我国2008—2021年省际面板数据,对比考察数字技术相关因素与经济发展、人口等传统因素对制造业碳排放影响的差异,并根据不同情景对省际制造业碳排放的趋势进行预测和分析。研究结果显示,与经济发展、城镇化率等传统因素加剧制造业碳排放规模的作用相反,数字技术及其紧密相关的制造业集聚、能源强度、制造业结构以及研发投入等因素不但对降低制造业碳排放有着积极且重要的影响,还存在鲜明的非线性特征。对比不同政策情景,如果能够加强对经济发展、人口等传统因素的调控,在数字技术及其相关因素驱动下,未来我国制造业碳排放规模与无约束条件下的潜在水平相比,总体下降幅度将超过70%,而且制造业产出规模相对较小或者制造业产值规模较大且以传统产业为主的省(区、市),数字技术及其相关因素的碳减排效应将更加明显。因此,各地政府应该加大对数字技术研发和推广的投入力度,促进制造业的能源效率及其结构优化升级,为地方政府落实碳减排目标提供有利条件。 展开更多
关键词 制造业 碳减排 随机森林模型 stirpat模型 数字技术
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基于STIRPAT模型下城市人口密度对碳排放影响的实证分析
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作者 李钰 吕会影 《山西师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 2025年第2期95-102,共8页
文章基于STIRPAT模型构建动态面板数据模型,实证分析了城市人口密度对人均碳排放量的影响,并对碳排放量最优的城市人口密度进行测算.结果表明,中国城市人口密度和人均碳排放量呈“U”形关系.在城市人口密度变化中,经济水平、碳排放技术... 文章基于STIRPAT模型构建动态面板数据模型,实证分析了城市人口密度对人均碳排放量的影响,并对碳排放量最优的城市人口密度进行测算.结果表明,中国城市人口密度和人均碳排放量呈“U”形关系.在城市人口密度变化中,经济水平、碳排放技术水平、第二产业占比对城市绿地面积都对碳排放具有正影响,第三产业占比和公共交通对碳排放具有负影响.城市建成区面积应随着人口数量的增长稳步扩张,以保证经济增长和低碳环保的和谐发展.进而提出政策建议:城市规模合理扩张,推进产业转型升级,促进能源结构转变,提高低碳环保意识. 展开更多
关键词 城市化 人口密度 碳排放 stirpat模型
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基于STIRPAT模型的海岸带生态韧性影响因素研究——以深圳市为例 被引量:6
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作者 祁小丽 栾博 +2 位作者 周文君 罗珈柠 俞露 《中国环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第1期416-429,共14页
本研究以深圳市为案例,建立海岸带生态韧性评估框架,开展了海岸带生态韧性分区评价,运用了STIRPAT模型对影响海岸带生态韧性的社会经济因素进行量化分析并识别关键影响因素及影响程度,提出了海岸带保护修复建议.结果表明,2021年深圳市... 本研究以深圳市为案例,建立海岸带生态韧性评估框架,开展了海岸带生态韧性分区评价,运用了STIRPAT模型对影响海岸带生态韧性的社会经济因素进行量化分析并识别关键影响因素及影响程度,提出了海岸带保护修复建议.结果表明,2021年深圳市海岸带生态韧性综合评价得分在8.97~92.12之间,具有明显的东西部空间分异特征,东部海岸带生态韧性较高而西部较低,海岸带生态韧性水平与本底地理特征、城市开发程度具有密切关联.区域富裕度是影响深圳市海岸带生态韧性的主要负面因素,填海面积、环境污染、人口密度等因素对海岸带生态韧性也具有负面的影响;万元GDP水耗的降低对海岸带生态韧性有正向影响,表明技术创新和高质量经济发展会促进海岸带生态韧性提升.本研究成果可为高密度城市海岸带生态韧性研究提供新方法,为海岸带管理提供科学依据. 展开更多
关键词 海岸带生态韧性 空间分异 stirpat模型 影响因素 深圳
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基于STIRPAT模型的中国多情景碳排放预测及减排策略
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作者 许晓敏 姚润坤 +1 位作者 孔亚楠 付尧 《新经济导刊》 2025年第1期64-77,共14页
当前,我国正处于逐步实现可持续发展和生态环境保护的阶段,未来能源消费直接关系着我国“双碳”目标的实现。目前,大多碳排放研究主要采用单一分解模型或碳排放预测方法,缺少对碳排放影响因素的判断筛选。因此,本文基于STIRPAT和岭回归... 当前,我国正处于逐步实现可持续发展和生态环境保护的阶段,未来能源消费直接关系着我国“双碳”目标的实现。目前,大多碳排放研究主要采用单一分解模型或碳排放预测方法,缺少对碳排放影响因素的判断筛选。因此,本文基于STIRPAT和岭回归模型对我国碳排放量进行预测并提出减排策略。首先,根据我国2003–2023年能源消费量、能源结构等相关数据,对我国能源消费结构和碳排放变化情况进行分析。其次,基于Pearson相关系数法筛选出相关性高的特征因子,构建碳排放影响因素体系。然后,构建基于STIRPAT和岭回归模型的碳排放预测模型,STIRPAT模型能够确定碳排放的主要影响因素,岭回归则可以解决多重共线性问题,并利用我国历年的能源消费相关数据进行预测模型检验。接着,运用情景分析法,通过设置基准情景、低碳情景和高碳情景,对不同情景下我国2024–2033年未来碳排放趋势进行预测。最后,结合多情景预测结果,提出碳减排的策略建议,为实现我国“双碳”目标提供决策支持。 展开更多
关键词 stirpat模型 碳排放 低碳发展 岭回归 减排策略
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Scenario analysis of the Indonesia carbon tax impact on carbon emissions using system dynamics modeling and STIRPAT model 被引量:2
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作者 Andewi Rokhmawati Vita Sarasi Lailan Tawila Berampu 《Geography and Sustainability》 CSCD 2024年第4期577-587,共11页
This study aims to develop a system dynamic(SD)forecasting model based on the STIRPAT model to forecast the effect of an IDR 30 per kg CO_(2)e carbon tax on carbon emissions,estimate future carbon emissions under ten ... This study aims to develop a system dynamic(SD)forecasting model based on the STIRPAT model to forecast the effect of an IDR 30 per kg CO_(2)e carbon tax on carbon emissions,estimate future carbon emissions under ten scenarios,without and with the carbon tax,and estimate the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)to predict Indonesia’s carbon emission peak.Carbon emission drivers in this study are decomposed into several factors,namely energy structure,energy intensity,industrial structure,GDP per capita,population,and fixed-asset investment.This study included nuclear power utilization starting in 2038.The research gaps addressed by this study compared to previous research are(1)use of the ex-ante approach,(2)inclusion of nuclear power plants,(3)testing the EKC hypothesis,and(4)contribution to government policy.The simulation results show that under the carbon tax,carbon emissions can be reduced by improving renewable energy structures,adjusting industrial structures to green businesses,and emphasizing fixed asset investment more environmentally friendly.Moreover,the result approved the EKC hypothesis.It shows an inverse U-shaped curve between GDP per capita and CO_(2)emissions in Indonesia.Indonesia’s fastest carbon emission peak is under scenario seven and is expected in 2040.Although an IDR 30 per kg CO_(2)e carbon tax and nuclear power will take decades to reduce carbon emissions,the carbon tax can still be a reference and has advantages to implement.This result can be a good beginning step for Indonesia,which has yet to gain experience with a carbon tax that can be implemented immediately and is helpful to decision-makers in putting into practice sensible measures to attain Indonesia’s carbon emission peaking.This research provides actionable insights internationally on carbon tax policies,nuclear energy adoption,EKC dynamics,global policy implications,and fostering international cooperation for carbon emission reductions. 展开更多
关键词 Carbon emissions Carbon tax System dynamics Environmental Kuznets curve stirpat model
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基于STIRPAT模型的广西碳达峰路径 被引量:14
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作者 黄威翔 高川作 +3 位作者 吴波 陈坦 杨婷 张冰 《环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第2期682-695,共14页
为保障西部地区在发展的同时实现碳达峰的目标,以广西为例,收集2000~2021年广西人口、经济、社会、能源和城市发展等方面的统计数据,根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)推荐的方法核算2000~2021年的碳排放量,采用岭回归识别影响... 为保障西部地区在发展的同时实现碳达峰的目标,以广西为例,收集2000~2021年广西人口、经济、社会、能源和城市发展等方面的统计数据,根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)推荐的方法核算2000~2021年的碳排放量,采用岭回归识别影响碳排放的关键因素,构建STIRPAT碳排放预测模型,预测3种典型发展路径情景下广西2022~2040年碳排放量.结果表明,2000~2021年广西的CO_(2)排放总量呈现整体上升趋势,从2000年的95.49 Mt增长到2021年的390.15 Mt,年均增长率为6.93%.能源结构、产业结构、城镇化率是影响广西碳排放的三大显著影响因素.高碳发展路径下,到2040年广西碳排放量达623.32 Mt,中碳发展路径下在2040年达591.20 Mt,而低碳发展路径下在2035年达到峰值531.99 Mt.3种典型发展路径情景下,广西实现碳达峰需要面对不同的减排压力,只有低碳发展路径可能在2040年前实现碳达峰,如果想实现2030年碳达峰,则需进一步加强绿色低碳高质量发展. 展开更多
关键词 碳达峰 碳排放 广西 stirpat模型 岭回归
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基于STIRPAT和CNN-LSTM组合模型的福建省碳达峰预测 被引量:7
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作者 连艳琼 苏墩煌 施生旭 《环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第1期10-18,共9页
碳达峰对中国实现“双碳”目标、推动经济社会绿色转型具有重要意义.基于改进的STIRPAT模型分析影响福建省碳排放的主要因素,设置3种情景方案,利用CNN-LSTM神经网络混合模型对福建省2022~2035年碳排放量进行预测.结果表明:①人口、人均... 碳达峰对中国实现“双碳”目标、推动经济社会绿色转型具有重要意义.基于改进的STIRPAT模型分析影响福建省碳排放的主要因素,设置3种情景方案,利用CNN-LSTM神经网络混合模型对福建省2022~2035年碳排放量进行预测.结果表明:①人口、人均GDP和产业结构对福建省碳排放有正向驱动作用,能源强度、能源结构和对外贸易度则起负向驱动作用;②基准情景下于2033年实现碳达峰,达峰值为361.1079 Mt,低碳情景和优化情景可以提早1 a达峰且达峰值均有不同程度下降,分别为333.0284 Mt和301.7483 Mt;③对比优化情景和低碳情景,调整产业和能源结构能够控制福建省碳峰值降低10.37%,加快推动能源和产业结构优化转型是解绑碳排放与经济发展之间束缚的关键所在.最后,结合福建省当前政策规划和发展现状,从能源减排、产业结构和制度体系等角度提出低碳发展建议. 展开更多
关键词 碳排放 碳达峰 stirpat模型 CNN-LSTM模型 政策
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Complex adaptive system theory,agent-based modeling,and simulation in dominant technology formation 被引量:1
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作者 ZHANG Ruihan SUN Bing 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2024年第1期130-153,共24页
Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to i... Dominant technology formation is the key for the hightech industry to“cross the chasm”and gain an established foothold in the market(and hence disrupt the regime).Therefore,a stimulus-response model is proposed to investigate the dominant technology by exploring its formation process and mechanism.Specifically,based on complex adaptive system theory and the basic stimulus-response model,we use a combination of agent-based modeling and system dynamics modeling to capture the interactions between dominant technology and the socio-technical landscape.The results indicate the following:(i)The dynamic interaction is“stimulus-reaction-selection”,which promotes the dominant technology’s formation.(ii)The dominant technology’s formation can be described as a dynamic process in which the adaptation intensity of technology standards increases continuously until it becomes the leading technology under the dual action of internal and external mechanisms.(iii)The dominant technology’s formation in the high-tech industry is influenced by learning ability,the number of adopting users and adaptability.Therein,a“critical scale”of learning ability exists to promote the formation of leading technology:a large number of adopting users can promote the dominant technology’s formation by influencing the adaptive response of technology standards to the socio-technical landscape and the choice of technology standards by the socio-technical landscape.There is a minimum threshold and a maximum threshold for the role of adaptability in the dominant technology’s formation.(iv)The socio-technical landscape can promote the leading technology’s shaping in the high-tech industry,and different elements have different effects.This study promotes research on the formation mechanism of dominant technology in the high-tech industry,presents new perspectives and methods for researchers,and provides essential enlightenment for managers to formulate technology strategies. 展开更多
关键词 complex adaptive system theory agent-based modeling and simulation dominant technology socio-technical landscape adaptation-choice
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Product family modeling technology for customized cosmetic packaging design based on basic-element theory 被引量:3
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作者 Tao Chen Ding-Bang Luh Jinguang Wang 《Journal of Dermatologic Science and Cosmetic Technology》 2024年第1期2-12,共11页
Background:As the market demands change,SMEs(small and medium-sized enterprises)have long faced many design issues,including high costs,lengthy cycles,and insufficient innovation.These issues are especially noticeable... Background:As the market demands change,SMEs(small and medium-sized enterprises)have long faced many design issues,including high costs,lengthy cycles,and insufficient innovation.These issues are especially noticeable in the domain of cosmetic packaging design.Objective:To explore innovative product family modeling methods and configuration design processes to improve the efficiency of enterprise cosmetic packaging design and develop the design for mass customization.Methods:To accomplish this objective,the basic-element theory has been introduced and applied to the design and development system of the product family.Results:By examining the mapping relationships between the demand domain,functional domain,technology domain,and structure domain,four interrelated models have been developed,including the demand model,functional model,technology model,and structure model.Together,these models form the mechanism and methodology of product family modeling,specifically for cosmetic packaging design.Through an analysis of a case study on men’s cosmetic packaging design,the feasibility of the proposed product family modeling technology has been demonstrated in terms of customized cosmetic packaging design,and the design efficiency has been enhanced.Conclusion:The product family modeling technology employs a formalized element as a module configuration design language,permeating throughout the entire development cycle of cosmetic packaging design,thus facilitating a structured and modularized configuration design process for the product family system.The application of the basic-element principle in product family modeling technology contributes to the enrichment of the research field surrounding cosmetic packaging product family configuration design,while also providing valuable methods and references for enterprises aiming to elevate the efficiency of cosmetic packaging design for the mass customization product model. 展开更多
关键词 Packaging design Cosmetic packaging Product family modeling technology Basic-element theory Design for mass customization
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基于扩展STIRPAT模型的广东省造纸工业碳排放情景预测
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作者 王红平 杨建州 《环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第9期5535-5542,共8页
广东省是中国造纸工业发达的省份之一,准确预测广东省造纸工业碳排放,并制定合理有效的碳减排措施对实现中国造纸工业碳达峰、碳中和目标具有重要影响.为此,引入工业总产值、就业规模、人均工业产值、碳生产力、能源强度与能源结构指标... 广东省是中国造纸工业发达的省份之一,准确预测广东省造纸工业碳排放,并制定合理有效的碳减排措施对实现中国造纸工业碳达峰、碳中和目标具有重要影响.为此,引入工业总产值、就业规模、人均工业产值、碳生产力、能源强度与能源结构指标,构建扩展随机性环境影响评价(STIRPAT)模型,利用偏最小二乘法回归分析,预测4个情景下广东省造纸工业2023~2050年碳排放量.结果表明:①工业总产值、人均工业产值、就业规模、能源强度与碳排放呈正相关性,而碳生产力和能源结构与碳排放呈负相关性;②基准情景下造纸工业只能在2040年达到碳达峰;在低碳发展情景下,造纸工业虽可在2030年实现碳达峰,但在2050年碳排放量保持在1614.7万~1933.7万t;在强低碳发展情景下,造纸工业不仅可在2030年达到碳达峰,还有望实现2060年碳中和目标;③在快速发展情景下,造纸工业碳排放保持上涨趋势,同时在2050年碳排放量处于高位值,基本不可能实现“双碳”目标.因此,广东省造纸工业应合理规划造纸产业规模发展,积极提升碳生产力,优化能源结构以及促进产业绿色技术进步,从而推动造纸产业的绿色可持续发展. 展开更多
关键词 stirpat模型 广东省 造纸工业 碳排放 情景预测
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基于STIRPAT模型的长三角区域四省市碳排放预测 被引量:5
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作者 杨霖 王敏 +1 位作者 李丽平 杨儒浦 《环境工程技术学报》 北大核心 2025年第1期81-89,共9页
基于STIRPAT模型,通过岭回归方法分别定量分析长三角区域四省市(安徽、江苏、上海和浙江)的人口规模、人均GDP、城市化率、能源消耗强度、能源结构、第二产业增加值占比与碳排放量的关系,设置3种情景预测模式,预测长三角区域四省市的碳... 基于STIRPAT模型,通过岭回归方法分别定量分析长三角区域四省市(安徽、江苏、上海和浙江)的人口规模、人均GDP、城市化率、能源消耗强度、能源结构、第二产业增加值占比与碳排放量的关系,设置3种情景预测模式,预测长三角区域四省市的碳排放量发展趋势。结果表明:安徽省碳排放量影响最显著的变量是能源强度,能源强度每增加1%,碳排放量将下降0.524%,其余三省市碳排放量影响最显著的自变量均为人均GDP,人均GDP每增加1%,江苏、上海和浙江三省碳排放量分别增加1.734%、1.434%和1.355%。长三角区域在基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景下分别于2035年、2030年和2025年达到碳排放峰值。人口增长速度、经济发展水平和能源强度是影响未来长三角四省市碳排放量增长的主要因素。建议长三角区域四省市制定分阶段、分地区差异化的碳达峰目标,对于煤炭依赖程度较高的安徽省,要努力构建多元化的低碳能源体系,利用长三角东部地区丰富的自然资源承接劳动密集型产业;上海、江苏、浙江三省市在加大科技创新助力产业转型升级的同时,也要合理控制人口数量,增强公民环保意识。 展开更多
关键词 碳排放 stirpat模型 岭回归 发展情景 长三角区域
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中国能源消费碳排放达峰情景预测:基于STIRPAT扩展模型 被引量:4
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作者 单葆国 姚力 +1 位作者 张成龙 谭显东 《环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第7期4052-4064,共13页
科学识别影响碳排放增长的主要因素,准确预测中国碳排放峰值及碳达峰时间,对中国如期实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义.以1980~2022年中国经济社会发展和能源消费数据为基础,应用可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT)和岭回归分析方... 科学识别影响碳排放增长的主要因素,准确预测中国碳排放峰值及碳达峰时间,对中国如期实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义.以1980~2022年中国经济社会发展和能源消费数据为基础,应用可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT)和岭回归分析方法,识别了影响中国能源消费CO_(2)排放的7个主要因素,构建了基于STIRPAT模型的中国能源消费碳排放多元回归模型,并应用模型对2023~2035年中国能源消费碳排放进行了分情景预测.结果表明:①人口、城镇化率、二产比例、人均GDP和电气化率等5个因素是拉动能源消费碳排放增长的主要因素,化石能源比例和能源强度等2个因素是抑制能源消费碳排放增长的主要因素;②在不同的经济发展阶段,各个影响因素对碳排放的贡献发生了明显的变化,其中能源强度、二产比例和化石能源比例等3个因素的正负效应发生了转折性变化,反映出不同发展阶段能源消费碳排放的阶段性特征;③基准情景下,中国能源消费碳排放在2030年达峰,峰值为120.4亿t;低碳情景下,碳达峰时间提前2 a,峰值为116.6亿t,比基准情景下降3.16%;高碳情景下,碳达峰时间滞后2 a,峰值为127.5亿t,比基准情景上升5.90%.为确保中国在2030年之前实现碳达峰目标,从加快能源结构调整、提升电气化水平、优化产业结构和提高能源利用效率等方面提出了相关建议. 展开更多
关键词 能源消费 碳排放 影响因素 stirpat模型 岭回归 碳达峰预测
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基于STIRPAT模型的淮河生态经济带碳排放门槛效应研究
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作者 杨晨星 庞庆华 《水利经济》 北大核心 2025年第1期42-47,共6页
基于2010—2020年淮河生态经济带28个城市的面板数据,以STIRPAT模型为基础,构建以人均GDP为门槛变量的门槛效应模型,研究了产业结构和城镇化水平对碳排放总量的非线性影响。结果表明:产业结构和城镇化水平对碳排放总量的影响均由显著的... 基于2010—2020年淮河生态经济带28个城市的面板数据,以STIRPAT模型为基础,构建以人均GDP为门槛变量的门槛效应模型,研究了产业结构和城镇化水平对碳排放总量的非线性影响。结果表明:产业结构和城镇化水平对碳排放总量的影响均由显著的负向作用转为正向作用,能源强度对碳排放具有正相关影响,而能源消费结构对碳排放具有负相关影响。为了有效降低碳排放总量,政府应根据城镇化发展的不同阶段及时调整产业结构,促进淮河生态经济带高质量发展。 展开更多
关键词 碳排放 stirpat模型 门槛效应模型 淮河生态经济带
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基于STIRPAT模型的北方某滨海城市碳达峰情景分析
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作者 刘泽珺 鞠美庭 《环境科学》 北大核心 2025年第9期5524-5534,共11页
开展碳达峰情景分析对地方制定碳减排政策、如期实现碳中和目标具有重要意义.基于我国北方某滨海城市2012~2023年统计年鉴中社会发展和能源消费数据,根据联合国政府间合作组织(IPCC)推荐的方法核算了该滨海城市2011~2022年碳排放量,采... 开展碳达峰情景分析对地方制定碳减排政策、如期实现碳中和目标具有重要意义.基于我国北方某滨海城市2012~2023年统计年鉴中社会发展和能源消费数据,根据联合国政府间合作组织(IPCC)推荐的方法核算了该滨海城市2011~2022年碳排放量,采用拓展的STIRPAT模型,筛选当地碳减排的主要驱动因素并结合情景分析法进行碳达峰预测.结果表明:①人均GDP、能源结构、能源强度、城镇化率和产业结构是该滨海城市碳减排的主要驱动因素,其中人均GDP的影响程度最大;②基准情景下,该滨海城市碳排放量处于不断上升趋势;低碳情景、强化低碳情景下,该滨海城市碳达峰时间分别为2030年和2025年,达峰峰值分别为3991.53万t和3970.17万t.强化低碳情景最适合该滨海城市的发展需要. 展开更多
关键词 气候变化 碳达峰 stirpat模型 碳排放 减排路径
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Applying the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in Information Technology System to Evaluate the Adoption of Decision Support System
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作者 Md Azhad Hossain Anamika Tiwari +3 位作者 Sanchita Saha Ashok Ghimire Md Ahsan Ullah Imran Rabeya Khatoon 《Journal of Computer and Communications》 2024年第8期242-256,共15页
With the beginning of the information systems’ spreading, people started thinking about using them for making business decisions. Computer technology solutions, such as the Decision Support System, make the decision-... With the beginning of the information systems’ spreading, people started thinking about using them for making business decisions. Computer technology solutions, such as the Decision Support System, make the decision-making process less complex and simpler for problem-solving. In order to make a high-quality business decision, managers need to have a great deal of appropriate information. Nonetheless, this complicates the process of making appropriate decisions. In a situation like that, the possibility of using DSS is quite logical. The aim of this paper is to find out the intended use of DSS for medium and large business organizations in USA by applying the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). Different models were developed in order to understand and predict the use of information systems, but the information systems community mostly used TAM to ensure this issue. The purpose of the research model is to determine the elements of analysis that contribute to these results. The sample for the research consisted of the target group that was supposed to have completed an online questionnaire about the manager’s use of DSS in medium and large American companies. The information obtained from the questionnaires was analyzed through the SPSS statistical software. The research has indicated that, this is primarily used due to a significant level of Perceived usefulness and For the Perceived ease of use. 展开更多
关键词 Information technology Decision Support System Business Organization in USA technology Acceptance model
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