Cigarette market is a kind of monopoly market which is closed loop running, it depends on the plan mechanism to schedule producing, supplying and selling, but the “bullwhip effect” still exists. So it has a fundamen...Cigarette market is a kind of monopoly market which is closed loop running, it depends on the plan mechanism to schedule producing, supplying and selling, but the “bullwhip effect” still exists. So it has a fundamental significance to do sales forecasting work. It needs to considerate the double trend characteristics, history sales data and other main factors that affect cigarette sales. This paper depends on the panel data of A province’s cigarette sales, first we established three single forecasting models, after getting the predicted value of these single models, then using the combination forecasting method which based on PLS to predict the province’s cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the prediction accuracy is good, which could provide a certain reference to cigarette sales forecasting in A province.展开更多
This paper depends on the panel data of Anhui province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales. First we established three single forecasting models (Holter-Wintel Season product model, Time series model decomposing model...This paper depends on the panel data of Anhui province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales. First we established three single forecasting models (Holter-Wintel Season product model, Time series model decomposing model and Partial least square regression model), after getting the predicted value of cigarette sales from these single models, we then employ the combination forecasting method based on Time Series method and PLS to predict the province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the accuracy of prediction is good which could provide a reliable reference to cigarette sales forecasting in Anhui province and its 17 cities.展开更多
The nanoparticles of polylactide (PLA) and poly(lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) were prepared by the bi-nary organic solvent diffusion method. The yield, particle size and size distribution of these nanoparticles wereeva...The nanoparticles of polylactide (PLA) and poly(lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) were prepared by the bi-nary organic solvent diffusion method. The yield, particle size and size distribution of these nanoparticles wereevaluated. The yield of nanoparticles prepared by this method is over 90%, and the average size of the nanoparticlesis between 130-180 nm. In order to clarify the effect of the organic solvent used in the system on nanoparticle yieldand size, the cloud points of PLA and PLGA were examined by cloud point titration. The results indicate that theyields of nanoparticles increase with the increase of ethanol in the acetone solution and attain the maximum at thecloud point of ethanol, while the size of nanoparticles decreases with the increase of ethanol in the acetone solutionand attains the minimum at the cloud point of ethanol. The optimal composition ratio of binary organic solvents coin-cides to that near the cloud point and the optimal condition of binary organic solvents can be predicted.展开更多
文摘Cigarette market is a kind of monopoly market which is closed loop running, it depends on the plan mechanism to schedule producing, supplying and selling, but the “bullwhip effect” still exists. So it has a fundamental significance to do sales forecasting work. It needs to considerate the double trend characteristics, history sales data and other main factors that affect cigarette sales. This paper depends on the panel data of A province’s cigarette sales, first we established three single forecasting models, after getting the predicted value of these single models, then using the combination forecasting method which based on PLS to predict the province’s cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the prediction accuracy is good, which could provide a certain reference to cigarette sales forecasting in A province.
文摘This paper depends on the panel data of Anhui province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales. First we established three single forecasting models (Holter-Wintel Season product model, Time series model decomposing model and Partial least square regression model), after getting the predicted value of cigarette sales from these single models, we then employ the combination forecasting method based on Time Series method and PLS to predict the province and its 17 cities’ cigarette sales of the next year. The results show that the accuracy of prediction is good which could provide a reliable reference to cigarette sales forecasting in Anhui province and its 17 cities.
基金Project ( 2001AA218011) supported by the National High Technology Development "863" Program of China
文摘The nanoparticles of polylactide (PLA) and poly(lactide-co-glycolide) (PLGA) were prepared by the bi-nary organic solvent diffusion method. The yield, particle size and size distribution of these nanoparticles wereevaluated. The yield of nanoparticles prepared by this method is over 90%, and the average size of the nanoparticlesis between 130-180 nm. In order to clarify the effect of the organic solvent used in the system on nanoparticle yieldand size, the cloud points of PLA and PLGA were examined by cloud point titration. The results indicate that theyields of nanoparticles increase with the increase of ethanol in the acetone solution and attain the maximum at thecloud point of ethanol, while the size of nanoparticles decreases with the increase of ethanol in the acetone solutionand attains the minimum at the cloud point of ethanol. The optimal composition ratio of binary organic solvents coin-cides to that near the cloud point and the optimal condition of binary organic solvents can be predicted.
