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Spatio-temporal impacts of land use patterns on habitat quality:A multi-scenario development analysis
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作者 GUO Yue ZHANG Yubo WEN Changji 《智能化农业装备学报(中英文)》 2026年第1期178-189,共12页
As a tropical island confronting the dual imperatives of tourism-driven economic growth and ecological vulnerability,Hainan's land-use sustainability critically impacts both regional development and coastal ecosys... As a tropical island confronting the dual imperatives of tourism-driven economic growth and ecological vulnerability,Hainan's land-use sustainability critically impacts both regional development and coastal ecosystem security.This study employs a coupled PLUS-InVEST modeling framework to analyze land-use changes and habitat quality dynamics from 2000 to 2020,projecting ecological outcomes under three development scenarios for 2030.Key findings reveal:(1)A persistent bimodal habitat distribution pattern,with high-quality areas concentrated in the central forest zone and degraded areas in coastal peripheries,exhibiting a continuous decline over the 20-year period.(2)Accelerated urbanization between 2010 and 2020 resulted in the conversion of ecological land to construction use,correlating strongly with habitat fragmentation intensity.(3)Baseline projections for 2030 indicate that construction land will dominate new conversions.(4)Ecological protection scenarios demonstrate recoverable habitat potentials,particularly within coastal buffer zones.These findings provide empirical validation of scenario-driven land-use planning as a viable tool for island ecosystems,highlighting the critical need to balance tourism infrastructure development with coastal conservation imperatives in tropical island sustainability management.This methodology advances spatial decision-making for balancing island economic growth with biodiversity preservation,offering replicable strategies for global island ecosystems facing similar sustainability challenges. 展开更多
关键词 land use change habitat quality InVEST model PLUS model multi-scenario prediction
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Multi-Scenario Probabilistic Load Flow Calculation Considering Wind Speed Correlation
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作者 Xueqian Wang Hongsheng Su 《Energy Engineering》 2025年第2期667-680,共14页
As the proportion of newenergy increases,the traditional cumulant method(CM)produces significant errorswhen performing probabilistic load flow(PLF)calculations with large-scale wind power integrated.Considering the wi... As the proportion of newenergy increases,the traditional cumulant method(CM)produces significant errorswhen performing probabilistic load flow(PLF)calculations with large-scale wind power integrated.Considering the wind speed correlation,a multi-scenario PLF calculation method that combines random sampling and segmented discrete wind farm power was proposed.Firstly,based on constructing discrete scenes of wind farms,the Nataf transform is used to handle the correlation between wind speeds.Then,the random sampling method determines the output probability of discrete wind power scenarios when wind speed exhibits correlation.Finally,the PLF calculation results of each scenario areweighted and superimposed following the total probability formula to obtain the final power flow calculation result.Verified in the IEEE standard node system,the absolute percent error(APE)for the mean and standard deviation(SD)of the node voltages and branch active power are all within 1%,and the average root mean square(AMSR)values of the probability curves are all less than 1%. 展开更多
关键词 Wind speed correlation probabilistic load flow multi-scenario PIECEWISE cumulant method
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Multi-scenario Simulation for 2060 and Driving Factors of the Eco-spatial Carbon Sink in the Beibu Gulf Urban Agglomeration, China 被引量:10
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作者 QIN Menglin ZHAO Yincheng +3 位作者 LIU Yuting JIANG Hongbo LI Hang ZHU Ziming 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第1期85-101,共17页
Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(... Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. This study applied the Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS) model to predict the land use pattern of the ecological space of the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, in 2060 under ecological priority, agricultural priority and urbanized priority scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(In VEST) model was employed to analyse the spatial changes in ecological space carbon storage in each scenario from 2020 to 2060. Then, this study used a Geographically Weighted Regression(GWR) model to determine the main driving factors that influence the changes in land carbon sinking capacity. The results of the study can be summarised as follows: firstly, the agricultural and ecological priority scenarios will achieve balanced urban expansion and environmental protection of resources in an ecological space. The urbanized priority scenario will reduce the carbon sinking capacity. Among the simulation scenarios for 2060, carbon storage in the urbanized priority scenario will decrease by 112.26 × 10^(6) t compared with that for 2020 and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.96 kg/m^(2) compared with that for 2020. Carbon storage in the agricultural priority scenario will increase by 84.11 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will decrease by 0.72 kg/m^(2). Carbon storage in the ecological priority scenario will increase by 3.03 × 10^(6) t, and the average carbon density will increase by 0.03 kg/m^(2). Under the premise that the population of the town will increases continuously, the ecological priority development approach may be a wise choice.Secondly, slope, distance to river and elevation are the most important factors that influence the carbon sink pattern of the ecological space in the Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, followed by GDP, population density, slope direction and distance to traffic infrastructure.At the same time, urban space expansion is the main cause of the changes of this natural factors. Thirdly, the decreasing trend of ecological space is difficult to reverse, so reasonable land use policy to curb the spatial expansion of cities need to be made. 展开更多
关键词 Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model carbon sink multi-scenario simulation ecological space driving factor Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration
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Simulation and prediction of multi-scenario evolution of ecological space based on FLUS model: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China 被引量:6
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作者 LIU Xiaoqiong WANG Xu +1 位作者 CHEN Kunlun LI Dan 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第2期373-391,共19页
Building the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)is one of China’s three national development policies in the new era.The ecological environment of the Yangtze River Economic Belt must be protected not only for regional... Building the Yangtze River Economic Belt(YREB)is one of China’s three national development policies in the new era.The ecological environment of the Yangtze River Economic Belt must be protected not only for regional economic development but also for regional ecological security and ecological progress in this region.This paper takes the ecological space of the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research object,based on land use data in 2010 and 2015,and uses the FLUS model to simulate and predict the ecological space of the research area in 2035.The variation of the research area’s ecological space area and its four sub-zones has remarkable stability under diverse situations.Both the production space priority scenarios(S1)and living space priority scenarios(S2)saw a fall in ecological space area,with the former experiencing the highest reduction(a total reduction of 25,212 km^(2)).Under the ecological space priority scenarios(S3)and comprehensive space optimization scenario(S4),the ecological space area increased,and the ecological space area expanded even more under the former scenario(a total growth of 23,648 km^(2)).In Yunnan-Guizhou,the ecological space is relatively stable,with minimal signs of change.In Sichuan-Chongqing,the Sichuan Basin,Zoige Grassland,and Longmen Mountains were significant regions of area changes in ecological space.In the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the ecological space changes mainly occur in the Wuyi Mountains,Mufu Mountains,and Dabie Mountains,as well as the surrounding waters of Dongting Lake.The Yangtze River Delta’s changes were mainly observed in the eastern Dabie Mountains and Jianghuai Hills. 展开更多
关键词 ecological space multi-scenario simulation prediction FLUS model Yangtze River Economic Belt extensive protection of the Yangtze River
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Multi-scenario Simulation and Spatial-temporal Analysis of LUCC in China's Coastal Zone Based on Coupled SD-FLUS Model 被引量:3
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作者 HOU Xiyong SONG Baiyuan +2 位作者 ZHANG Xueying WANG Xiaoli LI Dong 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2024年第4期579-598,共20页
Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover chang... Increased human activities in China's coastal zone have resulted in the depletion of ecological land resources.Thus,conducting current and future multi-scenario simulation research on land use and land cover change(LUCC)is crucial for guiding the healthy and sustainable development of coastal zones.System dynamic(SD)-future land use simulation(FLUS)model,a coupled simulation model,was developed to analyze land use dynamics in China's coastal zone.This model encompasses five scenarios,namely,SSP1-RCP2.6(A),SSP2-RCP4.5(B),SSP3-RCP4.5(C),SSP4-RCP4.5(D),and SSP5-RCP8.5(E).The SD model simulates land use demand on an annual basis up to the year 2100.Subsequently,the FLUS model determines the spatial distribution of land use for the near term(2035),medium term(2050),and long term(2100).Results reveal a slowing trend in land use changes in China's coastal zone from 2000–2020.Among these changes,the expansion rate of construction land was the highest and exhibited an annual decrease.By 2100,land use predictions exhibit high accuracy,and notable differences are observed in trends across scenarios.In summary,the expansion of production,living,and ecological spaces toward the sea remains prominent.Scenario A emphasizes reduced land resource dependence,benefiting ecological land protection.Scenario B witnesses an intensified expansion of artificial wetlands.Scenario C sees substantial land needs for living and production,while Scenario D shows coastal forest and grassland shrinkage.Lastly,in Scenario E,the conflict between humans and land intensifies.This study presents pertinent recommendations for the future development,utilization,and management of coastal areas in China.The research contributes valuable scientific support for informed,long-term strategic decision making within coastal regions. 展开更多
关键词 land use and land cover change(LUCC) multi-scenario simulation system dynamic-future land use simulation(SD-FLUS)model SSP-RCP scenarios model coupling China's coastal zone
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Impacts of multi-scenario land use change on ecosystem services and ecological security pattern: A case study of the Yellow River Delta 被引量:1
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作者 XueHua Cen Hua Zhang 《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 CSCD 2024年第1期30-44,共15页
The Yellow River Delta(YRD), a critical economic zone along China's eastern coast, also functions as a vital ecological reserve in the lower Yellow River. Amidst rapid industrialization and urbanization, the regio... The Yellow River Delta(YRD), a critical economic zone along China's eastern coast, also functions as a vital ecological reserve in the lower Yellow River. Amidst rapid industrialization and urbanization, the region has witnessed significant land use/cover changes(LUCC), impacting ecosystem services(ES) and ecological security patterns(ESP). Investigating LUCC's effects on ES and ESP in the YRD is crucial for ecological security and sustainable development. This study utilized the PLUS model to simulate 2030 land use scenarios, including natural development(NDS), economic development(EDS), and ecological protection scenarios(EPS). Subsequently, the InVEST model and circuit theory were applied to assess ES and ESP under varying LUCC scenarios from 2010 to 2030. Findings indicate:(1) Notable LUCC from 2010 to 2030, marked by decreasing cropland and increasing construction land and water bodies.(2) From 2010 to 2020, improvements were observed in carbon storage,water yield, soil retention, and habitat quality, whereas 2020–2030 saw increases in water yield and soil retention but declines in habitat quality and carbon storage. Among the scenarios, EPS showed superior performance in all four ES.(3) Between 2010 and 2030, ecological sources, corridors, and pinchpoints expanded, displaying significant spatial heterogeneity. The EPS scenario yielded the most substantial increases in ecological sources,corridors, and pinchpoints, totaling 582.89 km^(2), 645.03 km^(2),and 64.43 km^(2), respectively. This study highlights the importance of EPS, offering insightful scientific guidance for the YRD's sustainable development. 展开更多
关键词 Land use change multi-scenario simulation Ecosystem services Ecological security pattern The Yellow River Delta Circuit theory
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Encapsulation for perovskite integrated devices and multi-scenario applications
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作者 Qijun Li Wenhan Yang +8 位作者 Annan Zhu Hairui Cai Bei An Bin Wang Fumin Li Xiaolong Liu Nan Zhang Shengchun Yang Chao Liang 《Journal of Energy Chemistry》 2026年第2期940-974,I0019,共36页
Perovskite photovoltaics have attracted extensive research attention as the third-generation photovoltaic technology due to their outstanding photoelectric performance,enabling diverse applications such as flexible we... Perovskite photovoltaics have attracted extensive research attention as the third-generation photovoltaic technology due to their outstanding photoelectric performance,enabling diverse applications such as flexible wearable devices,energy storage devices,fuel conversion devices,smart photovoltaic devices,and space application equipment.However,an important prerequisite for achieving multi-scenario applications lies in ensuring their long-term stability to meet the actual application requirements.Encapsulation plays a crucial role in achieving this stability.For this reason,this review systematically studies the degradation mechanisms of perovskite photovoltaics and comprehensively summarizes encapsulation as a key strategy for enhancing their stability,covering various encapsulation materials and prevalent technologies.More importantly,this paper focuses on the encapsulating technologies in multi-scenario application devices,aiming to deepen the basic understanding of the degradation mechanisms,provide practical guidelines for the development of next-generation encapsulating solutions,and promote the application expansion of encapsulating technologies in broader fields. 展开更多
关键词 Perovskite photovoltaic Stability enhancement multi-scenario applications Diversified encapsulation materials Encapsulation technologies
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石羊河流域氮保持功能评估与未来情景预测
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作者 侯慧敏 李浩浩 +3 位作者 王辉 王鹏全 包志强 任志伟 《生态环境学报》 北大核心 2026年第2期232-244,共13页
氮保持是关键的生态系统调节服务,土地利用变化是影响其时空动态的主要驱动力;揭示氮保持功能对土地利用格局演变的响应机制,对促进流域农业可持续发展和有效控制面源污染具有重要意义。该文通过耦合FLUS与InVEST模型,模拟石羊河流域203... 氮保持是关键的生态系统调节服务,土地利用变化是影响其时空动态的主要驱动力;揭示氮保持功能对土地利用格局演变的响应机制,对促进流域农业可持续发展和有效控制面源污染具有重要意义。该文通过耦合FLUS与InVEST模型,模拟石羊河流域2035年不同发展情景下的土地利用变化,进而评估其氮保持功能的响应。研究得出,1)现状年氮保持量为1.61×10^(4)t、耕地保护情景为1.82×10^(4) t、自然发展情景为2.10×10^(4) t、生态保护情景为2.13×10^(4) t,不同情景的氮保持量均较现状年显著提升,但生态保护情景增幅最大,耕地保护情景相对较小。2)以自然断点法将不同情景下的县域氮保持强度分5级,确定永昌县和凉州区为水质净化功能重要区。3)对比现状年,耕地保护情景与自然发展情景下氮保持量增量最多的土地利用类型为农田,而生态保护情景下,氮保持量增加最多的为草地。4)人口密度是影响流域氮保持量空间分异的主导驱动因子(q值为0.126);影响力最强的交互因子为土壤类型∩人口密度,q值达0.221。氮保持量在空间上呈现显著的聚集效应,表现为“高-高”和“低-低”聚集特征。研究结果可为流域提升氮保持能力以及面源污染防控提供科学依据。 展开更多
关键词 氮保持功能 多情景模拟 FLUS模型 InVEST模型 石羊河流域
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多情景下中国省域建筑业碳达峰的时空特征
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作者 徐水太 熊斌斌 徐丝美 《环境科学》 北大核心 2026年第1期64-74,共11页
在“双碳”目标下,对我国省域建筑业碳排放测算和碳达峰多情景预测具有重要意义.以中国省域建筑业为切入点,利用IPCC系数法测算各省域2001~2020年建筑业碳排放,在STIRPAT模型的基础上,借助WOA-BP神经网络模型,模拟不同情景下各省域2021~... 在“双碳”目标下,对我国省域建筑业碳排放测算和碳达峰多情景预测具有重要意义.以中国省域建筑业为切入点,利用IPCC系数法测算各省域2001~2020年建筑业碳排放,在STIRPAT模型的基础上,借助WOA-BP神经网络模型,模拟不同情景下各省域2021~2050年建筑业碳排放及其时空演变.结果表明:(1)2001~2020年,中国建筑业人均碳排放逐渐升高,东、中部的省域为高人均碳排放,西、北部的省域为低人均碳排放.(2)人口数是2021~2050年各省域建筑业碳排放最重要的影响因素,且省域影响力各不同.(3)2021~2050年,不同情景建筑业碳排放达峰时间各异,约束受限情景碳达峰最早.其中有17个省域可以在2030年前实现碳达峰,常态均衡情景5个省域,宽松激进情景则无.北部和东南沿海达峰较早,华中其次,西南较晚,陕西和辽宁最晚.西部大开发战略会推迟西部建筑业碳达峰,需要增强碳排放强度约束. 展开更多
关键词 建筑业 省域 碳达峰 多情景预测 时空特征
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从感知到意向:多场景智能产品的用户体验研究综述
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作者 武月琴 苏洋 《包装工程》 北大核心 2026年第2期485-496,共12页
目的系统梳理近十年来多场景智能产品用户体验领域的研究进展,探讨其在跨场景设计与优化中的理论与实践价值。方法基于文献计量学方法,结合中国知网等相关学术期刊文献,筛选2015年至2025年的相关研究并运用CiteSpace与VOSviewer进行关... 目的系统梳理近十年来多场景智能产品用户体验领域的研究进展,探讨其在跨场景设计与优化中的理论与实践价值。方法基于文献计量学方法,结合中国知网等相关学术期刊文献,筛选2015年至2025年的相关研究并运用CiteSpace与VOSviewer进行关键词共现、时间线演化及主题聚类分析,从应用场景、交互设计与用户体验三个维度解析研究热点、发展趋势与关键问题。结果多场景智能产品的用户体验呈现显著的情境依赖性与领域差异性,主要问题集中在功能适配、界面优化、个性化服务、情感体验四个方面。同时,揭示用户体验设计正从单一功能优化向多场景适应与情感共鸣方向发展。结论提出“感知-行为-认知-意向”四层多场景用户体验框架,不仅为解决多场景体验差异问题提供系统化方法论,而且为智能产品设计优化与多场景用户体验提升提供理论依据与实践参考。 展开更多
关键词 多场景 智能产品设计 用户体验 情景理论
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基于拓扑图序列的多船会遇相似场景辨识方法研究
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作者 刘克中 宋翊宁 +1 位作者 袁志涛 王伟强 《中国航海》 北大核心 2026年第1期18-28,共11页
针对多船会遇场景相似性难以量化和识别的问题,提出一种基于拓扑图序列的多船会遇相似场景识别方法。首先,从船舶自动识别系统(AIS)数据中提取多船会遇场景,并构建表征船舶交互关系的拓扑图序列模型;其次,设计两阶段相似场景识别算法,... 针对多船会遇场景相似性难以量化和识别的问题,提出一种基于拓扑图序列的多船会遇相似场景识别方法。首先,从船舶自动识别系统(AIS)数据中提取多船会遇场景,并构建表征船舶交互关系的拓扑图序列模型;其次,设计两阶段相似场景识别算法,对拓扑图序列进行相似度计算与筛选,从而实现多船会遇相似场景的识别。以宁波舟山港水域为例,从一个月的AIS数据中提取2898个多船会遇场景,并选取其中占比较高的两类典型场景进行试验验证。根据会遇特征参数对识别结果进行对比分析。试验结果表明,所识别的相似会遇场景在动态演化特征上与原始场景具有较高一致性,该方法能够有效识别具有相似会遇关系的多船会遇场景,验证了其在多船会遇场景相似性度量中的可行性与有效性。研究结果可为多船会遇场景下的避碰决策与会遇风险分析提供参考依据。 展开更多
关键词 多船会遇场景 相似场景辨识 拓扑图 图序列相似度
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苏南城镇碳汇空间时空演变与多情景模拟
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作者 范凌云 汤宇轩 田永兵 《风景园林》 北大核心 2026年第1期23-33,共11页
【目的】为保护并优化高度城镇化地区的碳汇空间,有必要系统研究其时空演变特征及规律。【方法】本研究聚焦苏南地区“城镇尺度”的碳汇空间,在研究其时空演变特征的基础上,结合斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use sim... 【目的】为保护并优化高度城镇化地区的碳汇空间,有必要系统研究其时空演变特征及规律。【方法】本研究聚焦苏南地区“城镇尺度”的碳汇空间,在研究其时空演变特征的基础上,结合斑块生成土地利用变化模拟(patch-generating land use simulation,PLUS)模型和聚类分析法研判不同城镇综合响应状态,并提出差异化的碳汇空间管控策略。【结果】1)2000—2020年苏南地区碳汇空间面积大幅减少,减少区域高度集中于高价值碳汇空间。碳汇空间格局在城镇尺度上未因城镇化而全面瓦解,表现出较强的稳定性。2)通过对自然增长情景、碳汇保护情景、碳汇强化情景3种情景的模拟,发现加大碳汇空间保护力度能够实现高质量碳汇空间扩张,但需要警惕生态功能单一化风险,避免盲目追求“高碳汇系数”。3)在3种模拟情景下,大部分城镇碳汇空间结构较稳定,建议通过存量挖潜与功能置换等方式优化碳汇空间;而部分敏感型城镇则呈现差异化演变路径,需根据其具体风险类型,实施更具针对性的管控策略。【结论】快速城镇化地区碳汇空间面积虽然呈现缩减趋势,但在城镇尺度表现出稳定性与敏感性共存的特征。这一特性可通过多情景模拟研判,从而为制定差异化的城镇碳汇空间管控策略提供科学依据。 展开更多
关键词 风景园林 碳汇空间 PLUS模型 多情景模拟 苏南地区 城镇尺度
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重构YOLOv11的无人机小目标检测算法
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作者 孟昱煜 孔垂乐 +1 位作者 火久元 武泽宇 《浙江大学学报(工学版)》 北大核心 2026年第2期303-312,331,共11页
无人机视角下目标偏小、背景复杂、场景包含多尺度信息,现有算法在小目标检测中特征提取不充分、检测效果不佳,为此提出面向多尺度复杂场景、无人机视角下基于重构YOLOv11的小目标检测算法DLSRF-Net.提出自适应深度可分离感受野注意力... 无人机视角下目标偏小、背景复杂、场景包含多尺度信息,现有算法在小目标检测中特征提取不充分、检测效果不佳,为此提出面向多尺度复杂场景、无人机视角下基于重构YOLOv11的小目标检测算法DLSRF-Net.提出自适应深度可分离感受野注意力卷积模块(DSRFAConv),提升模型对小目标感受野特征的提取能力并降低模型负载;设计多分支轻量化多尺度线性注意力机制,提升模型对小目标的关注度;设计RSCDI模块作为模型的上采样层和全连接层,解决特征信息丢失问题并抑制无用信息,提升模型的检测精度.按照参数量和计算量将模型尺寸分为2类,并在VisDrone2021数据集上进行实验验证,结果表明,所提算法在2类模型尺寸下均取得了最优性能.在DOTA和SSDD数据集上验证了所提算法的泛化能力. 展开更多
关键词 小目标检测 复杂场景 YOLOv11 多尺度线性注意力 RSCDI
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Multi-objective spatial optimization by considering land use suitability in the Yangtze River Delta region
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作者 CHENG Qianwen LI Manchun +4 位作者 LI Feixue LIN Yukun DING Chenyin XIAO Lishan LI Weiyue 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 2026年第1期45-78,共34页
Rapid urbanization in China has led to spatial antagonism between urban development and farmland protection and ecological security maintenance.Multi-objective spatial collaborative optimization is a powerful method f... Rapid urbanization in China has led to spatial antagonism between urban development and farmland protection and ecological security maintenance.Multi-objective spatial collaborative optimization is a powerful method for achieving sustainable regional development.Previous studies on multi-objective spatial optimization do not involve spatial corrections to simulation results based on the natural endowment of space resources.This study proposes an Ecological Security-Food Security-Urban Sustainable Development(ES-FS-USD)spatial optimization framework.This framework combines the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II(NSGA-II)and patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model with an ecological protection importance evaluation,comprehensive agricultural productivity evaluation,and urban sustainable development potential assessment and optimizes the territorial space in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region in 2035.The proposed sustainable development(SD)scenario can effectively reduce the destruction of landscape patterns of various land-use types while considering both ecological and economic benefits.The simulation results were further revised by evaluating the land-use suitability of the YRD region.According to the revised spatial pattern for the YRD in 2035,the farmland area accounts for 43.59%of the total YRD,which is 5.35%less than that in 2010.Forest,grassland,and water area account for 40.46%of the total YRD—an increase of 1.42%compared with the case in 2010.Construction land accounts for 14.72%of the total YRD—an increase of 2.77%compared with the case in 2010.The ES-FS-USD spatial optimization framework ensures that spatial optimization outcomes are aligned with the natural endowments of land resources,thereby promoting the sustainable use of land resources,improving the ability of spatial management,and providing valuable insights for decision makers. 展开更多
关键词 multi-objective spatial optimization multi-scenario simulation ecological protection importance comprehensive agricultural productivity urban sustainable development land-use suitability
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Scalable and Healable Gradient Textiles for Multi‑Scenario Radiative Cooling via Bicomponent Blow Spinning
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作者 Baiyu Ji Yufeng Wang +6 位作者 Ying Liu Yongxu Zhao Fankun Xu Jian Huang Yue‑EMiao Chao Zhang Tianxi Liu 《Nano-Micro Letters》 2026年第3期338-353,共16页
Radiative cooling textiles with spectrally selective surfaces offer a promising energy-efficient approach for sub-ambient cooling of outdoor objects and individuals.However,the spectrally selective mid-infrared emissi... Radiative cooling textiles with spectrally selective surfaces offer a promising energy-efficient approach for sub-ambient cooling of outdoor objects and individuals.However,the spectrally selective mid-infrared emission of these textiles significantly hinders their efficient radiative heat exchange with self-heated objects,thereby posing a significant challenge to their versatile cooling applicability.Herein,we present a bicomponent blow spinning strategy for the production of scalable,ultra-flexible,and healable textiles featuring a tailored dual gradient in both chemical composition and fiber diameter.The gradient in the fiber diameter of this textile introduces a hierarchically porous structure across the sunlight incident area,thereby achieving a competitive solar reflectivity of 98.7%on its outer surface.Additionally,the gradient in the chemical composition of this textile contributes to the formation of Janus infrared-absorbing surfaces:The outer surface demonstrates a high mid-infrared emission,whereas the inner surface shows a broad infrared absorptivity,facilitating radiative heat exchange with underlying self-heated objects.Consequently,this textile demonstrates multi-scenario radiative cooling capabilities,enabling versatile outdoor cooling for unheated objects by 7.8℃ and self-heated objects by 13.6℃,compared to commercial sunshade fabrics. 展开更多
关键词 Gradient cooling textile Bicomponent blow spinning Janus spectral selectivity Radiative heat exchange multi-scenario radiative cooling
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基于PLUS-Geodetector模型的赤水河流域(云南段)土地利用驱动分析及未来发展预测
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作者 李建忠 李云梅 +4 位作者 余艳红 吕恒 董宪章 王高伦 李俊达 《环境科学》 北大核心 2026年第1期517-530,共14页
长江流域生态保护和高质量发展是党中央的重大战略部署.作为长江上游的重要支流,赤水河是维系区域生态安全的重要组成部分,研究其流域土地利用的时空演变及其未来情景预测,不仅对研究区的发展规划具有重要指导意义,同时也可为长江流域... 长江流域生态保护和高质量发展是党中央的重大战略部署.作为长江上游的重要支流,赤水河是维系区域生态安全的重要组成部分,研究其流域土地利用的时空演变及其未来情景预测,不仅对研究区的发展规划具有重要指导意义,同时也可为长江流域及其他类似区域的生态保护与高效土地利用提供参考.以赤水河流域(云南段)为典型案例,分析其土地利用演变规律及驱动因素,探究不同发展情景下未来土地利用变化趋势,为维持流域生态安全及土地资源的合理利用提供科学依据.基于1985~2020年Landsat系列遥感影像和2022~2023年实际调查数据,采用监督分类方法获取1985~2020年土地利用数据并分析其时空动态变化;采用PLUS模型和地理探测器模型对土地利用变化的驱动因子进行定量分析,以揭示其影响机制;最后使用PLUS模型预测不同发展情景下2035年土地利用分布格局.结果表明:(1) 1985~2020年该流域内土地利用类型变化的总体趋势为耕地先增加后减少;草地先减少后保持稳定;有林地和灌木林地先减少后增加;水域保持稳定状态;建设用地持续增加.(2)建设用地的扩张主要受到距次要道路的距离和坡度的影响.距行政中心的距离是对土地利用变化决定力最高的因素,同时因子之间存在协同增强的交互作用,自然环境和区域可达性的交互作用最为显著.(3)在自然发展情景下,耕地和有林地面积减少,建设用地与水域面积增加.生态保护情景下,生态用地面积普遍增加.耕地保护情景下,耕地快速增长显著侵占其他土地类型.不同情景下,未来土地利用格局呈现出显著的差异,作为长江源头区域,流域未来土地利用规划和发展应以生态保护和可持续健康发展为目标,注重生态环境保护与经济的协同发展.研究结果可为长江流域及其他生态敏感区土地利用规划和生态保护政策制定提供科学参考. 展开更多
关键词 PLUS模型 土地利用变化 多情景模拟 地理探测器 驱动因素
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长江流域江苏段碳储量的多情景模拟和空间格局优化
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作者 彭卓越 李梦婷 +3 位作者 梁煜彬 刘亚明 方红远 殷峻暹 《环境科学》 北大核心 2026年第2期892-902,共11页
优化碳储量的空间格局对提高区域生态系统碳汇容量和维持区域碳平衡具有重要意义.以长江流域江苏段为例,基于土地利用/覆被变化、社会经济和气候环境数据,结合InVEST和PLUS模型预测研究区2030年自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护这3种不同... 优化碳储量的空间格局对提高区域生态系统碳汇容量和维持区域碳平衡具有重要意义.以长江流域江苏段为例,基于土地利用/覆被变化、社会经济和气候环境数据,结合InVEST和PLUS模型预测研究区2030年自然发展、耕地保护和生态保护这3种不同情景下的生态系统碳储量和空间分布格局,并借助具有决策优化能力的贝叶斯网络模型对研究区碳储量格局进行了分区优化.结果表明:①2000~2020年研究区碳储量呈下降趋势,共减少了4797.63×10^(4)t,主要原因是耕地、林地向建设用地转换.②2030年研究区生态保护情景下的碳储量为38528.91×10^(4)t,呈上升趋势,其余2种情景下的碳储量均呈现下降趋势.③通过贝叶斯网络模型,筛选出关键变量关键状态子集,将研究区划分为生态保护区、耕地保护区、水源涵养区和经济建设区这4类优化分区.研究结果可为流域土地利用可持续发展及推进流域实现“双碳”目标提供参考. 展开更多
关键词 碳储量 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 多情景模拟 贝叶斯网络模型 空间格局优化
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基于PLUS-InVEST模型的东北黑土区景观格局与碳储量变化多情景模拟
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作者 王悦 于福东 +3 位作者 张月 相恒星 焉恒琦 毛德华 《生态环境学报》 北大核心 2026年第2期178-189,共12页
探究景观格局变化对区域碳储量的影响机制,对优化景观结构、提升生态系统碳汇能力、保障区域生态安全与粮食安全具有重要意义。以东北黑土区为研究对象,分析1990-2020年其景观格局变化及碳储量演变特征,并运用PLUS-InVEST模型,模拟2050... 探究景观格局变化对区域碳储量的影响机制,对优化景观结构、提升生态系统碳汇能力、保障区域生态安全与粮食安全具有重要意义。以东北黑土区为研究对象,分析1990-2020年其景观格局变化及碳储量演变特征,并运用PLUS-InVEST模型,模拟2050年自由发展、生态保护和粮食增产等3种情景下的景观格局与碳储量变化趋势。结果表明,1)1990-2020年,研究区景观以耕地、林地和草地为主,占比达87.6%以上;耕地和人工表面面积持续增加,草地面积加速减少。2)2020-2050年,自由发展情景下耕地和林地面积增长明显,草地和裸地面积减少;生态保护情景下林地面积大幅增加,人工表面和草地面积减少;粮食增产情景下则以耕地激增为主。3)1990-2020年,碳储量呈“东高西低、山地高平原低”的分布格局和逐年减少的变化趋势,其总量累积减少479.6 Tg。碳储量以林地和湿地为主,高碳密度区主要由林地和湿地构成,低值区域则以耕地和草地为主。4)2020-2050年,自由发展和生态保护情景下,碳储量可能分别增加38.0、197.4 Tg,而粮食增产情景下,由于林地、湿地和草地向耕地的转移概率增加,碳储量可能减少261.0 Tg。该研究结果可为东北黑土区未来景观格局规划和生态保护策略的制定提供科学依据和决策支持,推动生态系统服务功能的可持续管理。 展开更多
关键词 景观格局 碳储量 东北黑土区 PLUS-InVEST模型 多情景模拟
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基于PLUS-InVEST模型的河北省承德市水源涵养功能预测
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作者 吕铁冰 苏伟 +4 位作者 贾梓琦 胡宝月 刘宏权 付银环 马素英 《水土保持通报》 北大核心 2026年第1期344-354,共11页
[目的]模拟预测不同情景下河北省承德市的水源涵养功能,为优化该市国土空间布局,提升复合生态系统服务能力及保障京津冀水资源安全提供科学支撑。[方法]基于PLUS-InVEST耦合模型,设置耕地保护、生态保护、自然发展、城市扩张4种情景,对... [目的]模拟预测不同情景下河北省承德市的水源涵养功能,为优化该市国土空间布局,提升复合生态系统服务能力及保障京津冀水资源安全提供科学支撑。[方法]基于PLUS-InVEST耦合模型,设置耕地保护、生态保护、自然发展、城市扩张4种情景,对承德市2028,2033和2038年土地利用变化及水源涵养功能进行预测与分析。[结果](1)承德市“三生”空间冲突将持续影响土地利用变化,其中森林面积总体稳定,但草地除生态保护情景外普遍遭受侵占并呈退化趋势;城市扩张情景下不透水面面积显著增加。(2)未来不同情景下,承德市水源涵养功能分布格局保持高度稳定,但总量对土地利用变化响应敏感。除生态保护情景外草地水源涵养量持续下降,城市扩张情景下森林水源涵养功能被侵占,不透水面水源涵养量异常升高。[结论]耕地、林地及草地是承德市水源涵养功能的主体,承德市面临着草地退化与城市无序扩张的双重压力。未来应在严格保护森林生态系统的前提下,统筹协调耕地保护与草地恢复,严格控制不透水面的无序扩张。 展开更多
关键词 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 土地利用变化 多情景模拟 水源涵养预测 河北省承德市
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基于PLUS模型的东山岛防风生态网络构建与多情景模拟
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作者 莫凯翔 曲永季 +1 位作者 林宏阳 巫丽芸 《生态学报》 北大核心 2026年第3期1536-1550,共15页
高强度的人类活动与粗放的土地利用模式叠加,导致沿海防护林和海岛整体森林体系破碎化,使得原有防风固沙生态屏障功能严重退化,重塑海岛整体防风生态网络成为破解海岛生态安全困境的关键路径。对土地利用变化的精确模拟为准确反映海岛... 高强度的人类活动与粗放的土地利用模式叠加,导致沿海防护林和海岛整体森林体系破碎化,使得原有防风固沙生态屏障功能严重退化,重塑海岛整体防风生态网络成为破解海岛生态安全困境的关键路径。对土地利用变化的精确模拟为准确反映海岛生态系统防风功能演变及构建防风生态网络提供依据。将多情景模拟与海岛防风生态网络构建相结合,基于PLUS模型模拟东山岛2030年自然、经济、生态3种发展情景,运用形态学空间分析和最小累积阻力模型获取核心防风源地,综合考虑海岛大风风险性和森林防风功能构建海岛防风综合阻力面,提取和筛选东山岛重要防风廊道,对比2020年及2030年3种情景下东山岛防风空间要素特征与演变趋势。结果表明:(1)在2030年土地利用多情景模拟中,耕地和水域面积在3种情景下均有一定程度的减少,建设用地面积增长,林地在经济发展情景和生态保护情景下面积有所增加,符合海岛生态保护的目标。(2)2020年大风灾害中高风险区面积比例达72%,大风灾害风险仍较高;2030年的自然发展情景与经济发展情景则呈现显著风险升级趋势,较高风险区面积较2020年分别增加15%和13%,高风险区面积分别增加3.1%和3.3%。(3)相较于2020年,东山岛2030年3种情景下核心防风源地面积均有不同程度扩大,自然发展情景与经济发展情景的扩张趋势明显,面积增加均超过5km^(2),防风廊道数量亦有增加的趋势,尤其是二级防风廊道,主要集中在中部县政府驻地和东部沿海地段。提出“一核四区一带多点”的防风安全格局构建策略,为东山岛生态防风保护与社会经济协同发展之路提供科学依据。 展开更多
关键词 海岛 东山岛 防风生态网络 PLUS模型 多情景模拟
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