A nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI)model was proposed and developed by the first author for nearly 30 years to represent the evolution of atmospheric blocking.In this review paper,we first review the creation and...A nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI)model was proposed and developed by the first author for nearly 30 years to represent the evolution of atmospheric blocking.In this review paper,we first review the creation and development of the NMI model and then emphasize that the NMI model represents a new tool for identifying the basic physics of how climate change influences mid-to-high latitude weather extremes.The building of the NMI model took place over three main periods.In the 1990s,a nonlinear Schr?dinger(NLS)equation model was presented to describe atmospheric blocking as a wave packet;however,it could not depict the lifetime(10-20 days)of atmospheric blocking.In the 2000s,we proposed an NMI model of atmospheric blocking in a uniform basic flow by making a scale-separation assumption and deriving an eddyforced NLS equation.This model succeeded in describing the life cycle of atmospheric blocking.In the 2020s,the NMI model was extended to include the impact of a changing climate mainly by altering the basic zonal winds and the magnitude of the meridional background potential vorticity gradient(PVy).Model results show that when PVy is smaller,blocking has a weaker dispersion and a stronger nonlinearity,so blocking can be more persistent and have a larger zonal scale and weaker eastward movement,thus favoring stronger weather extremes.However,when PVy is much smaller and below a critical threshold under much stronger winter Arctic warming of global warming,atmospheric blocking becomes locally less persistent and shows a much stronger westward movement,which acts to inhibit local cold extremes.Such a case does not happen in summer under global warming because PVy fails to fall below the critical threshold.Thus,our theory indicates that global warming can render summer-blocking anticyclones and mid-to-high latitude heatwaves more persistent,intense,and widespread.展开更多
Because of the challenge of compounding lightweight,high-strength Ti/Al alloys due to their considerable disparity in properties,Al 6063 as intermediate layer was proposed to fabricate TC4/Al 6063/Al 7075 three-layer ...Because of the challenge of compounding lightweight,high-strength Ti/Al alloys due to their considerable disparity in properties,Al 6063 as intermediate layer was proposed to fabricate TC4/Al 6063/Al 7075 three-layer composite plate by explosive welding.The microscopic properties of each bonding interface were elucidated through field emission scanning electron microscope and electron backscattered diffraction(EBSD).A methodology combining finite element method-smoothed particle hydrodynamics(FEM-SPH)and molecular dynamics(MD)was proposed for the analysis of the forming and evolution characteristics of explosive welding interfaces at multi-scale.The results demonstrate that the bonding interface morphologies of TC4/Al 6063 and Al 6063/Al 7075 exhibit a flat and wavy configuration,without discernible defects or cracks.The phenomenon of grain refinement is observed in the vicinity of the two bonding interfaces.Furthermore,the degree of plastic deformation of TC4 and Al 7075 is more pronounced than that of Al 6063 in the intermediate layer.The interface morphology characteristics obtained by FEM-SPH simulation exhibit a high degree of similarity to the experimental results.MD simulations reveal that the diffusion of interfacial elements predominantly occurs during the unloading phase,and the simulated thickness of interfacial diffusion aligns well with experimental outcomes.The introduction of intermediate layer in the explosive welding process can effectively produce high-quality titanium/aluminum alloy composite plates.Furthermore,this approach offers a multi-scale simulation strategy for the study of explosive welding bonding interfaces.展开更多
As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate c...As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change.The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.展开更多
Prediction of production decline and evaluation of the adsorbed/free gas ratio are critical for determining the lifespan and production status of shale gas wells.Traditional production prediction methods have some sho...Prediction of production decline and evaluation of the adsorbed/free gas ratio are critical for determining the lifespan and production status of shale gas wells.Traditional production prediction methods have some shortcomings because of the low permeability and tightness of shale,complex gas flow behavior of multi-scale gas transport regions and multiple gas transport mechanism superpositions,and complex and variable production regimes of shale gas wells.Recent research has demonstrated the existence of a multi-stage isotope fractionation phenomenon during shale gas production,with the fractionation characteristics of each stage associated with the pore structure,gas in place(GIP),adsorption/desorption,and gas production process.This study presents a new approach for estimating shale gas well production and evaluating the adsorbed/free gas ratio throughout production using isotope fractionation techniques.A reservoir-scale carbon isotope fractionation(CIF)model applicable to the production process of shale gas wells was developed for the first time in this research.In contrast to the traditional model,this model improves production prediction accuracy by simultaneously fitting the gas production rate and δ^(13)C_(1) data and provides a new evaluation method of the adsorbed/free gas ratio during shale gas production.The results indicate that the diffusion and adsorption/desorption properties of rock,bottom-hole flowing pressure(BHP)of gas well,and multi-scale gas transport regions of the reservoir all affect isotope fractionation,with the diffusion and adsorption/desorption parameters of rock having the greatest effect on isotope fractionation being D∗/D,PL,VL,α,and others in that order.We effectively tested the universality of the four-stage isotope fractionation feature and revealed a unique isotope fractionation mechanism caused by the superimposed coupling of multi-scale gas transport regions during shale gas well production.Finally,we applied the established CIF model to a shale gas well in the Sichuan Basin,China,and calculated the estimated ultimate recovery(EUR)of the well to be 3.33×10^(8) m^(3);the adsorbed gas ratio during shale gas production was 1.65%,10.03%,and 23.44%in the first,fifth,and tenth years,respectively.The findings are significant for understanding the isotope fractionation mechanism during natural gas transport in complex systems and for formulating and optimizing unconventional natural gas development strategies.展开更多
Latent heat thermal energy storage(TES)effectively reduces the mismatch between energy supply and demand of renewable energy sources by the utilization of phase change materials(PCMs).However,the low thermal conductiv...Latent heat thermal energy storage(TES)effectively reduces the mismatch between energy supply and demand of renewable energy sources by the utilization of phase change materials(PCMs).However,the low thermal conductivity and poor shape stability are the main drawbacks in realizing the large-scale application of PCMs.Promisingly,developing composite PCM(CPCM)based on porous supporting mate-rial provides a desirable solution to obtain performance-enhanced PCMs with improved effective thermal conductivity and shape stability.Among all the porous matrixes as supports for PCM,three-dimensional carbon-based porous supporting material has attracted considerable attention ascribing to its high ther-mal conductivity,desirable loading capacity of PCMs,and excellent chemical compatibility with various PCMs.Therefore,this work systemically reviews the CPCMs with three-dimensional carbon-based porous supporting materials.First,a concise rule for the fabrication of CPCMs is illustrated in detail.Next,the experimental and computational research of carbon nanotube-based support,graphene-based support,graphite-based support and amorphous carbon-based support are reviewed.Then,the applications of the shape-stabilized CPCMs including thermal management and thermal conversion are illustrated.Last but not least,the challenges and prospects of the CPCMs are discussed.To conclude,introducing carbon-based porous materials can solve the liquid leakage issue and essentially improve the thermal conductivity of PCMs.However,there is still a long way to further develop a desirable CPCM with higher latent heat capacity,higher thermal conductivity,and more excellent shape stability.展开更多
Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regime...Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.展开更多
Terrestrial ecosystems heavily depend on vegetation,which responds to carbon dioxide(CO_(2))fertilization in hot and humid regions.The subtropical humid karst region is a hot and humid region;whether and to what exten...Terrestrial ecosystems heavily depend on vegetation,which responds to carbon dioxide(CO_(2))fertilization in hot and humid regions.The subtropical humid karst region is a hot and humid region;whether and to what extent CO_(2)fertilization affects vegetation changes in such regions remains unclear.In this study,we investigated the degree to which CO_(2)fertilization influences vegetation changes,along with their spatial and temporal differences,in the subtropical humid karst region using time-lag effect analysis,a random forest model,and multiple regression analysis.Results showed that CO_(2)fertilization plays an important role in vegetation changes,exhibiting clear spatial variations across different geomorphological zones,with its degree of influence ranging mainly between 11%and 25%.The highest contribution of CO_(2)fertilization was observed in the karst basin and non-karstic region,whereas the lowest contribution was found in the karst plateau region.Previous studies have primarily attributed vegetation changes in subtropical humid karst region to ecological engineering,leading to an overestimation of its contribution to these changes.The findings of this study enhance the understanding of the mechanism of vegetation changes in humid karst region and provide theoretical and practical insights for ecological and environmental protection in these regions.展开更多
In recent years,gait-based emotion recognition has been widely applied in the field of computer vision.However,existing gait emotion recognition methods typically rely on complete human skeleton data,and their accurac...In recent years,gait-based emotion recognition has been widely applied in the field of computer vision.However,existing gait emotion recognition methods typically rely on complete human skeleton data,and their accuracy significantly declines when the data is occluded.To enhance the accuracy of gait emotion recognition under occlusion,this paper proposes a Multi-scale Suppression Graph ConvolutionalNetwork(MS-GCN).TheMS-GCN consists of three main components:Joint Interpolation Module(JI Moudle),Multi-scale Temporal Convolution Network(MS-TCN),and Suppression Graph Convolutional Network(SGCN).The JI Module completes the spatially occluded skeletal joints using the(K-Nearest Neighbors)KNN interpolation method.The MS-TCN employs convolutional kernels of various sizes to comprehensively capture the emotional information embedded in the gait,compensating for the temporal occlusion of gait information.The SGCN extracts more non-prominent human gait features by suppressing the extraction of key body part features,thereby reducing the negative impact of occlusion on emotion recognition results.The proposed method is evaluated on two comprehensive datasets:Emotion-Gait,containing 4227 real gaits from sources like BML,ICT-Pollick,and ELMD,and 1000 synthetic gaits generated using STEP-Gen technology,and ELMB,consisting of 3924 gaits,with 1835 labeled with emotions such as“Happy,”“Sad,”“Angry,”and“Neutral.”On the standard datasets Emotion-Gait and ELMB,the proposed method achieved accuracies of 0.900 and 0.896,respectively,attaining performance comparable to other state-ofthe-artmethods.Furthermore,on occlusion datasets,the proposedmethod significantly mitigates the performance degradation caused by occlusion compared to other methods,the accuracy is significantly higher than that of other methods.展开更多
The toxicity of PM_(2.5)does not necessarily change synchronously with its mass concentration.In this study,the chemical composition(carbonaceous species,water-soluble ions,and metals)and oxidative potential(dithiothr...The toxicity of PM_(2.5)does not necessarily change synchronously with its mass concentration.In this study,the chemical composition(carbonaceous species,water-soluble ions,and metals)and oxidative potential(dithiothreitol assay,DTT)of PM_(2.5)were investigated in 2017/2018 and 2022 in Xiamen,China.The decrease rate of volume-normalized DTT(DTTv)(38%)was lower than that of PM_(2.5)(55%)between the two sampling periods.However,the mass-normalized DTT(DTTm)increased by 44%.Clear seasonal patterns with higher levels in winter were found for PM_(2.5),most chemical constituents and DTTv but not for DTTm.The large decrease in DTT activity(84%−92%)after the addition of EDTA suggested that watersoluble metals were the main contributors to DTT in Xiamen.The increased gap between the reconstructed and measured DTTv and the stronger correlations between the reconstructed/measured DTT ratio and carbonaceous species in 2022were observed.The decrease rates of the hazard index(32.5%)and lifetime cancer risk(9.1%)differed from those of PM_(2.5)and DTTv due to their different main contributors.The PMF-MLR model showed that the contributions(nmol/(min·m^(3)))of vehicle emission,coal+biomass burning,ship emission and secondary aerosol to DTTv in 2022 decreased by 63.0%,65.2%,66.5%,and 22.2%,respectively,compared to those in 2017/2018,which was consistent with the emission reduction of vehicle exhaust and coal consumption,the adoption of low-sulfur fuel oil used on board ships and the reduced production of WSOC.However,the contributions of dust+sea salt and industrial emission increased.展开更多
Agricultural pests cause enormous losses in annual agricultural production.Understanding the evolutionary responses and adaptive capacity of agricultural pests under climate change is crucial for establishing sustaina...Agricultural pests cause enormous losses in annual agricultural production.Understanding the evolutionary responses and adaptive capacity of agricultural pests under climate change is crucial for establishing sustainable and environmentally friendly agricultural pest management.In this study,we integrate climate modeling and landscape genomics to investigate the distributional dynamics of the cotton bollworm(Helicoverpa armigera)in the adaptation to local environments and resilience to future climate change.Notably,the predicted inhabitable areas with higher suitability for the cotton bollworm could be eight times larger in the coming decades.Climate change is one of the factors driving the dynamics of distribution and population differentiation of the cotton bollworm.Approximately 19,000 years ago,the cotton bollworm expanded from its ancestral African population,followed by gradual occupations of the European,Asian,Oceanian,and American continents.Furthermore,we identify seven subpopulations with high dispersal and adaptability which may have an increased risk of invasion potential.Additionally,a large number of candidate genes and SNPs linked to climatic adaptation were mapped.These findings could inform sustainable pest management strategies in the face of climate change,aiding future pest forecasting and management planning.展开更多
The fusion of infrared and visible images should emphasize the salient targets in the infrared image while preserving the textural details of the visible images.To meet these requirements,an autoencoder-based method f...The fusion of infrared and visible images should emphasize the salient targets in the infrared image while preserving the textural details of the visible images.To meet these requirements,an autoencoder-based method for infrared and visible image fusion is proposed.The encoder designed according to the optimization objective consists of a base encoder and a detail encoder,which is used to extract low-frequency and high-frequency information from the image.This extraction may lead to some information not being captured,so a compensation encoder is proposed to supplement the missing information.Multi-scale decomposition is also employed to extract image features more comprehensively.The decoder combines low-frequency,high-frequency and supplementary information to obtain multi-scale features.Subsequently,the attention strategy and fusion module are introduced to perform multi-scale fusion for image reconstruction.Experimental results on three datasets show that the fused images generated by this network effectively retain salient targets while being more consistent with human visual perception.展开更多
BACKGROUND Atypical optic neuritis,consisting of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders(NMOSD)or myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody disease(MOGAD),has a very similar presentation but different prognostic im...BACKGROUND Atypical optic neuritis,consisting of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders(NMOSD)or myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody disease(MOGAD),has a very similar presentation but different prognostic implications and longterm management strategies.Vascular and metabolic factors are being thought to play a role in such autoimmune neuro-inflammatory disorders,apart from the obvious immune mediated damage.With the advent of optical coherence tomography angiography(OCTA),it is easy to pick up on these subclinical macular microvascular and structural changes.AIM To study the macular microvascular and structural changes on OCTA in atypical optic neuritis.METHODS This observational cross-sectional study involved 8 NMOSD and 17 MOGAD patients,diagnosed serologically,as well as 10 healthy controls.Macular vascular density(MVD)and ganglion cell+inner plexiform layer thickness(GCIPL)were studied using OCTA.RESULTS There was a significant reduction in MVD in NMOSD and MOGAD affected as well as unaffected eyes when compared with healthy controls.NMOSD and MOGAD affected eyes had significant GCIPL thinning compared with healthy controls.NMOSD unaffected eyes did not show significant GCIPL thinning compared to healthy controls in contrast to MOGAD unaffected eyes.On comparing NMOSD with MOGAD,there was no significant difference in terms of MVD or GCIPL in the affected or unaffected eyes.CONCLUSION Although significant microvascular and structural changes are present on OCTA between atypical optic neuritis and normal patients,they could not help in differentiating between NMOSD and MOGAD cases.展开更多
Gas-bearing shales have become a major source of future natural gas production worldwide.It has become increasingly urgent to develop a reliable prediction model and corresponding workflow for identifying shale gas sw...Gas-bearing shales have become a major source of future natural gas production worldwide.It has become increasingly urgent to develop a reliable prediction model and corresponding workflow for identifying shale gas sweet spots.The formation of gas-bearing shales is closely linked to relative sealevel changes,providing an important approach to predicting sweet spots in the Wufeng-Longmaxi shale in the southern Sichuan Basin,China.Three types of marine shale gas sweet spots are identified in the shale based on their formation stages combined with relative sea-level changes:early,middle,and late transgression types.This study develops a prediction model and workflow for identifying shale gas sweet spots by analyzing relative sea-level changes and facies sequences.Predicting shale gas sweet spots in an explored block using this model and workflow can provide a valuable guide for well design and hydraulic fracturing,significantly enhancing the efficiency of shale gas exploration and development.Notably,the new prediction model and workflow can be utilized for the rapid evaluation of the potential for shale gas development in new shale gas blocks or those with low exploratory maturity.展开更多
We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other ...We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.展开更多
BACKGROUND Dyslipidemia was strongly linked to stroke,however the relationship between dyslipidemia and its components and ischemic stroke remained unexplained.AIM To investigate the link between longitudinal changes ...BACKGROUND Dyslipidemia was strongly linked to stroke,however the relationship between dyslipidemia and its components and ischemic stroke remained unexplained.AIM To investigate the link between longitudinal changes in lipid profiles and dyslipidemia and ischemic stroke in a hypertensive population.METHODS Between 2013 and 2014,6094 hypertension individuals were included in this,and ischemic stroke cases were documented to the end of 2018.Longitudinal changes of lipid were stratified into four groups:(1)Normal was transformed into normal group;(2)Abnormal was transformed into normal group;(3)Normal was transformed into abnormal group;and(4)Abnormal was transformed into abnormal group.To examine the link between longitudinal changes in dyslipidemia along with its components and the risk of ischemic stroke,we utilized multivariate Cox proportional hazards models with hazard ratio(HR)and 95%CI.RESULTS The average age of the participants was 62.32 years±13.00 years,with 329 women making up 54.0%of the sample.Over the course of a mean follow-up of 4.8 years,143 ischemic strokes happened.When normal was transformed into normal group was used as a reference,after full adjustments,the HR for dyslipidemia and ischemic stroke among abnormal was transformed into normal group,normal was transformed into abnormal group and abnormal was transformed into abnormal Wei CC et al.Dyslipidemia changed and ischemic stroke WJCC https://www.wjgnet.com 2 February 6,2025 Volume 13 Issue 4 group were 1.089(95%CI:0.598-1.982;P=0.779),2.369(95%CI:1.424-3.941;P<0.001)and 1.448(95%CI:1.002-2.298;P=0.047)(P for trend was 0.233),respectively.CONCLUSION In individuals with hypertension,longitudinal shifts from normal to abnormal in dyslipidemia-particularly in total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol-were significantly associated with the risk of ischemic stroke.展开更多
In recent years,convolutional neural networks(CNN)and Transformer architectures have made significant progress in the field of remote sensing(RS)change detection(CD).Most of the existing methods directly stack multipl...In recent years,convolutional neural networks(CNN)and Transformer architectures have made significant progress in the field of remote sensing(RS)change detection(CD).Most of the existing methods directly stack multiple layers of Transformer blocks,which achieves considerable improvement in capturing variations,but at a rather high computational cost.We propose a channel-Efficient Change Detection Network(CE-CDNet)to address the problems of high computational cost and imbalanced detection accuracy in remote sensing building change detection.The adaptive multi-scale feature fusion module(CAMSF)and lightweight Transformer decoder(LTD)are introduced to improve the change detection effect.The CAMSF module can adaptively fuse multi-scale features to improve the model’s ability to detect building changes in complex scenes.In addition,the LTD module reduces computational costs and maintains high detection accuracy through an optimized self-attention mechanism and dimensionality reduction operation.Experimental test results on three commonly used remote sensing building change detection data sets show that CE-CDNet can reduce a certain amount of computational overhead while maintaining detection accuracy comparable to existing mainstream models,showing good performance advantages.展开更多
We adopted the solution impregnation route with aluminum dihydrogen phosphate solution as liquid medium for effective surface modification on graphite substrate.The mass ratio of graphite to Al(H_(2)PO_(4))_(3) change...We adopted the solution impregnation route with aluminum dihydrogen phosphate solution as liquid medium for effective surface modification on graphite substrate.The mass ratio of graphite to Al(H_(2)PO_(4))_(3) changed from 0.5:1 to 4:1,and the impregnation time changed from 1 to 7 h.The typical composite phase change thermal storage materials doped with the as-treated graphite were fabricated using form-stable technique.To investigate the oxidation and anti-oxidation behavior of the impregnated graphite at high temperatures,the samples were put into a muffle furnace for a cyclic heat test.Based on SEM,EDS,DSC techniques,analyses on the impregnated technique suggested an optimized processing conditions of a 3 h impregnation time with the ratio of graphite:Al(H_(2)PO_(4))_(3) as 1:3 for graphite impregnation treatment.Further investigations on high-temperature phase change heat storage materials doped by the treated graphite suggested excellent oxidation resistance and thermal cycling performance.展开更多
In Niger, farms have been facing negative effects of climate change for several decades. The objective of this work is to assess the vulnerability of farms in Tillabery department by proposing an adaptation approach. ...In Niger, farms have been facing negative effects of climate change for several decades. The objective of this work is to assess the vulnerability of farms in Tillabery department by proposing an adaptation approach. A five-step method and descriptive analysis were used on a sample of 250 farmers. The degree of damage caused by pests and crop diseases is significant, with respective proportions of 52.50% and 40.40%. It appears that the main climate risk factors for vulnerability are droughts, floods, soil degradation, and pest invasions. Additionally, the average level of exposure to agricultural operations is very high, with an index of 0.6. The sensitivity index remained constant in the range of 0.3 to 0.6 and is significant (reaching an index of 0.8). However, 61.2% of farms have a medium level of vulnerability and 33.3% have a high vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Nonetheless, a concerning trend regarding the vulnerability of farms has been observed. To assist policymakers and development actors in improving the vulnerability level of these production units, four phases of action are proposed: a diagnostic phase, evaluation, estimation of adaptation needs, implementation, and proper monitoring of actions.展开更多
The department of Tillabéri is primarily affected by climatic phenomena, impacting crop yields, growing cycles, and consequently, the economic outcomes of agricultural operations. The objective of this study is t...The department of Tillabéri is primarily affected by climatic phenomena, impacting crop yields, growing cycles, and consequently, the economic outcomes of agricultural operations. The objective of this study is to analyze these impacts of climate disruption on the economic performance of farms. The methodology adopted for this study combined documentary research with field surveys conducted on a sample of 250 randomly selected farmers. The analytical methods used mainly consisted of linear regression, profitability calculations, and linear programming. The findings indicate that all productions across different crops have experienced a decrease over the past 30 years. For instance, the production of millet, sorghum, and cowpea, which were respectively 812 kg/ha, 260 kg/ha, and 100 kg/ha between the last 30 and 20 years, has now dropped to 412 kg/ha, 106 kg/ha, and 46 kg/ha respectively. A negative and significant effect on agricultural net margin was observed due to variables such as flooding, drought, pest invasion in rice fields, and temperature changes. Smallholder farms show a relatively low margin (46%) to cover their fixed costs, which may indicate a risk if fixed expenses are high. Furthermore, the analysis results from linear programming reveal that farmers could achieve an additional net profit per hectare of 116,861 FCFA, 217201.5 FCFA, and 291988.2 FCFA respectively for small, medium, and large producers by managing variable costs and health-related expenses for households.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42150204 and 2288101)supported by the China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(BX20230045)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2023M730279)。
文摘A nonlinear multi-scale interaction(NMI)model was proposed and developed by the first author for nearly 30 years to represent the evolution of atmospheric blocking.In this review paper,we first review the creation and development of the NMI model and then emphasize that the NMI model represents a new tool for identifying the basic physics of how climate change influences mid-to-high latitude weather extremes.The building of the NMI model took place over three main periods.In the 1990s,a nonlinear Schr?dinger(NLS)equation model was presented to describe atmospheric blocking as a wave packet;however,it could not depict the lifetime(10-20 days)of atmospheric blocking.In the 2000s,we proposed an NMI model of atmospheric blocking in a uniform basic flow by making a scale-separation assumption and deriving an eddyforced NLS equation.This model succeeded in describing the life cycle of atmospheric blocking.In the 2020s,the NMI model was extended to include the impact of a changing climate mainly by altering the basic zonal winds and the magnitude of the meridional background potential vorticity gradient(PVy).Model results show that when PVy is smaller,blocking has a weaker dispersion and a stronger nonlinearity,so blocking can be more persistent and have a larger zonal scale and weaker eastward movement,thus favoring stronger weather extremes.However,when PVy is much smaller and below a critical threshold under much stronger winter Arctic warming of global warming,atmospheric blocking becomes locally less persistent and shows a much stronger westward movement,which acts to inhibit local cold extremes.Such a case does not happen in summer under global warming because PVy fails to fall below the critical threshold.Thus,our theory indicates that global warming can render summer-blocking anticyclones and mid-to-high latitude heatwaves more persistent,intense,and widespread.
基金Opening Foundation of Key Laboratory of Explosive Energy Utilization and Control,Anhui Province(BP20240104)Graduate Innovation Program of China University of Mining and Technology(2024WLJCRCZL049)Postgraduate Research&Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(KYCX24_2701)。
文摘Because of the challenge of compounding lightweight,high-strength Ti/Al alloys due to their considerable disparity in properties,Al 6063 as intermediate layer was proposed to fabricate TC4/Al 6063/Al 7075 three-layer composite plate by explosive welding.The microscopic properties of each bonding interface were elucidated through field emission scanning electron microscope and electron backscattered diffraction(EBSD).A methodology combining finite element method-smoothed particle hydrodynamics(FEM-SPH)and molecular dynamics(MD)was proposed for the analysis of the forming and evolution characteristics of explosive welding interfaces at multi-scale.The results demonstrate that the bonding interface morphologies of TC4/Al 6063 and Al 6063/Al 7075 exhibit a flat and wavy configuration,without discernible defects or cracks.The phenomenon of grain refinement is observed in the vicinity of the two bonding interfaces.Furthermore,the degree of plastic deformation of TC4 and Al 7075 is more pronounced than that of Al 6063 in the intermediate layer.The interface morphology characteristics obtained by FEM-SPH simulation exhibit a high degree of similarity to the experimental results.MD simulations reveal that the diffusion of interfacial elements predominantly occurs during the unloading phase,and the simulated thickness of interfacial diffusion aligns well with experimental outcomes.The introduction of intermediate layer in the explosive welding process can effectively produce high-quality titanium/aluminum alloy composite plates.Furthermore,this approach offers a multi-scale simulation strategy for the study of explosive welding bonding interfaces.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82025030,No.72394404)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3702700)the National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control of China(No.DQGG0401).
文摘As global greenhouse gases continue rising,the urgency of more ambitious action is clearer than ever before.China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases and one of the countries affected most by climate change.The evidence about the impacts of climate change on the environment and human health may encourage China to take more decisive action to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42302170)National Postdoctoral Innovative Talent Support Program(Grant No.BX20220062)+3 种基金CNPC Innovation Found(Grant No.2022DQ02-0104)National Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(Grant No.YQ2023D001)Postdoctoral Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province of China(Grant No.LBH-Z22091)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant No.ZR2022YQ30).
文摘Prediction of production decline and evaluation of the adsorbed/free gas ratio are critical for determining the lifespan and production status of shale gas wells.Traditional production prediction methods have some shortcomings because of the low permeability and tightness of shale,complex gas flow behavior of multi-scale gas transport regions and multiple gas transport mechanism superpositions,and complex and variable production regimes of shale gas wells.Recent research has demonstrated the existence of a multi-stage isotope fractionation phenomenon during shale gas production,with the fractionation characteristics of each stage associated with the pore structure,gas in place(GIP),adsorption/desorption,and gas production process.This study presents a new approach for estimating shale gas well production and evaluating the adsorbed/free gas ratio throughout production using isotope fractionation techniques.A reservoir-scale carbon isotope fractionation(CIF)model applicable to the production process of shale gas wells was developed for the first time in this research.In contrast to the traditional model,this model improves production prediction accuracy by simultaneously fitting the gas production rate and δ^(13)C_(1) data and provides a new evaluation method of the adsorbed/free gas ratio during shale gas production.The results indicate that the diffusion and adsorption/desorption properties of rock,bottom-hole flowing pressure(BHP)of gas well,and multi-scale gas transport regions of the reservoir all affect isotope fractionation,with the diffusion and adsorption/desorption parameters of rock having the greatest effect on isotope fractionation being D∗/D,PL,VL,α,and others in that order.We effectively tested the universality of the four-stage isotope fractionation feature and revealed a unique isotope fractionation mechanism caused by the superimposed coupling of multi-scale gas transport regions during shale gas well production.Finally,we applied the established CIF model to a shale gas well in the Sichuan Basin,China,and calculated the estimated ultimate recovery(EUR)of the well to be 3.33×10^(8) m^(3);the adsorbed gas ratio during shale gas production was 1.65%,10.03%,and 23.44%in the first,fifth,and tenth years,respectively.The findings are significant for understanding the isotope fractionation mechanism during natural gas transport in complex systems and for formulating and optimizing unconventional natural gas development strategies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52127816),the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2020YFA0715000)the National Natural Science and Hong Kong Research Grant Council Joint Research Funding Project of China(No.5181101182)the NSFC/RGC Joint Research Scheme sponsored by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.N_PolyU513/18).
文摘Latent heat thermal energy storage(TES)effectively reduces the mismatch between energy supply and demand of renewable energy sources by the utilization of phase change materials(PCMs).However,the low thermal conductivity and poor shape stability are the main drawbacks in realizing the large-scale application of PCMs.Promisingly,developing composite PCM(CPCM)based on porous supporting mate-rial provides a desirable solution to obtain performance-enhanced PCMs with improved effective thermal conductivity and shape stability.Among all the porous matrixes as supports for PCM,three-dimensional carbon-based porous supporting material has attracted considerable attention ascribing to its high ther-mal conductivity,desirable loading capacity of PCMs,and excellent chemical compatibility with various PCMs.Therefore,this work systemically reviews the CPCMs with three-dimensional carbon-based porous supporting materials.First,a concise rule for the fabrication of CPCMs is illustrated in detail.Next,the experimental and computational research of carbon nanotube-based support,graphene-based support,graphite-based support and amorphous carbon-based support are reviewed.Then,the applications of the shape-stabilized CPCMs including thermal management and thermal conversion are illustrated.Last but not least,the challenges and prospects of the CPCMs are discussed.To conclude,introducing carbon-based porous materials can solve the liquid leakage issue and essentially improve the thermal conductivity of PCMs.However,there is still a long way to further develop a desirable CPCM with higher latent heat capacity,higher thermal conductivity,and more excellent shape stability.
基金supported by the funding Riset Unggulan Daerah 2022 of the Bureau of Development Planning and Research in Central Java Province(BAPPEDA Provinsi Jawa Tengah).
文摘Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41761003The Karst Science Research Center of Guizhou Province,No.U1812401。
文摘Terrestrial ecosystems heavily depend on vegetation,which responds to carbon dioxide(CO_(2))fertilization in hot and humid regions.The subtropical humid karst region is a hot and humid region;whether and to what extent CO_(2)fertilization affects vegetation changes in such regions remains unclear.In this study,we investigated the degree to which CO_(2)fertilization influences vegetation changes,along with their spatial and temporal differences,in the subtropical humid karst region using time-lag effect analysis,a random forest model,and multiple regression analysis.Results showed that CO_(2)fertilization plays an important role in vegetation changes,exhibiting clear spatial variations across different geomorphological zones,with its degree of influence ranging mainly between 11%and 25%.The highest contribution of CO_(2)fertilization was observed in the karst basin and non-karstic region,whereas the lowest contribution was found in the karst plateau region.Previous studies have primarily attributed vegetation changes in subtropical humid karst region to ecological engineering,leading to an overestimation of its contribution to these changes.The findings of this study enhance the understanding of the mechanism of vegetation changes in humid karst region and provide theoretical and practical insights for ecological and environmental protection in these regions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62272049,62236006,62172045)the Key Projects of Beijing Union University(ZKZD202301).
文摘In recent years,gait-based emotion recognition has been widely applied in the field of computer vision.However,existing gait emotion recognition methods typically rely on complete human skeleton data,and their accuracy significantly declines when the data is occluded.To enhance the accuracy of gait emotion recognition under occlusion,this paper proposes a Multi-scale Suppression Graph ConvolutionalNetwork(MS-GCN).TheMS-GCN consists of three main components:Joint Interpolation Module(JI Moudle),Multi-scale Temporal Convolution Network(MS-TCN),and Suppression Graph Convolutional Network(SGCN).The JI Module completes the spatially occluded skeletal joints using the(K-Nearest Neighbors)KNN interpolation method.The MS-TCN employs convolutional kernels of various sizes to comprehensively capture the emotional information embedded in the gait,compensating for the temporal occlusion of gait information.The SGCN extracts more non-prominent human gait features by suppressing the extraction of key body part features,thereby reducing the negative impact of occlusion on emotion recognition results.The proposed method is evaluated on two comprehensive datasets:Emotion-Gait,containing 4227 real gaits from sources like BML,ICT-Pollick,and ELMD,and 1000 synthetic gaits generated using STEP-Gen technology,and ELMB,consisting of 3924 gaits,with 1835 labeled with emotions such as“Happy,”“Sad,”“Angry,”and“Neutral.”On the standard datasets Emotion-Gait and ELMB,the proposed method achieved accuracies of 0.900 and 0.896,respectively,attaining performance comparable to other state-ofthe-artmethods.Furthermore,on occlusion datasets,the proposedmethod significantly mitigates the performance degradation caused by occlusion compared to other methods,the accuracy is significantly higher than that of other methods.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province,China(No.2023R1014002)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41471390).
文摘The toxicity of PM_(2.5)does not necessarily change synchronously with its mass concentration.In this study,the chemical composition(carbonaceous species,water-soluble ions,and metals)and oxidative potential(dithiothreitol assay,DTT)of PM_(2.5)were investigated in 2017/2018 and 2022 in Xiamen,China.The decrease rate of volume-normalized DTT(DTTv)(38%)was lower than that of PM_(2.5)(55%)between the two sampling periods.However,the mass-normalized DTT(DTTm)increased by 44%.Clear seasonal patterns with higher levels in winter were found for PM_(2.5),most chemical constituents and DTTv but not for DTTm.The large decrease in DTT activity(84%−92%)after the addition of EDTA suggested that watersoluble metals were the main contributors to DTT in Xiamen.The increased gap between the reconstructed and measured DTTv and the stronger correlations between the reconstructed/measured DTT ratio and carbonaceous species in 2022were observed.The decrease rates of the hazard index(32.5%)and lifetime cancer risk(9.1%)differed from those of PM_(2.5)and DTTv due to their different main contributors.The PMF-MLR model showed that the contributions(nmol/(min·m^(3)))of vehicle emission,coal+biomass burning,ship emission and secondary aerosol to DTTv in 2022 decreased by 63.0%,65.2%,66.5%,and 22.2%,respectively,compared to those in 2017/2018,which was consistent with the emission reduction of vehicle exhaust and coal consumption,the adoption of low-sulfur fuel oil used on board ships and the reduced production of WSOC.However,the contributions of dust+sea salt and industrial emission increased.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(32372546)Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(KQTD20180411143628272)+1 种基金the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and STI 2030-Major Projects(2022ZD04021)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFD2200700)。
文摘Agricultural pests cause enormous losses in annual agricultural production.Understanding the evolutionary responses and adaptive capacity of agricultural pests under climate change is crucial for establishing sustainable and environmentally friendly agricultural pest management.In this study,we integrate climate modeling and landscape genomics to investigate the distributional dynamics of the cotton bollworm(Helicoverpa armigera)in the adaptation to local environments and resilience to future climate change.Notably,the predicted inhabitable areas with higher suitability for the cotton bollworm could be eight times larger in the coming decades.Climate change is one of the factors driving the dynamics of distribution and population differentiation of the cotton bollworm.Approximately 19,000 years ago,the cotton bollworm expanded from its ancestral African population,followed by gradual occupations of the European,Asian,Oceanian,and American continents.Furthermore,we identify seven subpopulations with high dispersal and adaptability which may have an increased risk of invasion potential.Additionally,a large number of candidate genes and SNPs linked to climatic adaptation were mapped.These findings could inform sustainable pest management strategies in the face of climate change,aiding future pest forecasting and management planning.
基金Supported by the Henan Province Key Research and Development Project(231111211300)the Central Government of Henan Province Guides Local Science and Technology Development Funds(Z20231811005)+2 种基金Henan Province Key Research and Development Project(231111110100)Henan Provincial Outstanding Foreign Scientist Studio(GZS2024006)Henan Provincial Joint Fund for Scientific and Technological Research and Development Plan(Application and Overcoming Technical Barriers)(242103810028)。
文摘The fusion of infrared and visible images should emphasize the salient targets in the infrared image while preserving the textural details of the visible images.To meet these requirements,an autoencoder-based method for infrared and visible image fusion is proposed.The encoder designed according to the optimization objective consists of a base encoder and a detail encoder,which is used to extract low-frequency and high-frequency information from the image.This extraction may lead to some information not being captured,so a compensation encoder is proposed to supplement the missing information.Multi-scale decomposition is also employed to extract image features more comprehensively.The decoder combines low-frequency,high-frequency and supplementary information to obtain multi-scale features.Subsequently,the attention strategy and fusion module are introduced to perform multi-scale fusion for image reconstruction.Experimental results on three datasets show that the fused images generated by this network effectively retain salient targets while being more consistent with human visual perception.
文摘BACKGROUND Atypical optic neuritis,consisting of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders(NMOSD)or myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody disease(MOGAD),has a very similar presentation but different prognostic implications and longterm management strategies.Vascular and metabolic factors are being thought to play a role in such autoimmune neuro-inflammatory disorders,apart from the obvious immune mediated damage.With the advent of optical coherence tomography angiography(OCTA),it is easy to pick up on these subclinical macular microvascular and structural changes.AIM To study the macular microvascular and structural changes on OCTA in atypical optic neuritis.METHODS This observational cross-sectional study involved 8 NMOSD and 17 MOGAD patients,diagnosed serologically,as well as 10 healthy controls.Macular vascular density(MVD)and ganglion cell+inner plexiform layer thickness(GCIPL)were studied using OCTA.RESULTS There was a significant reduction in MVD in NMOSD and MOGAD affected as well as unaffected eyes when compared with healthy controls.NMOSD and MOGAD affected eyes had significant GCIPL thinning compared with healthy controls.NMOSD unaffected eyes did not show significant GCIPL thinning compared to healthy controls in contrast to MOGAD unaffected eyes.On comparing NMOSD with MOGAD,there was no significant difference in terms of MVD or GCIPL in the affected or unaffected eyes.CONCLUSION Although significant microvascular and structural changes are present on OCTA between atypical optic neuritis and normal patients,they could not help in differentiating between NMOSD and MOGAD cases.
文摘Gas-bearing shales have become a major source of future natural gas production worldwide.It has become increasingly urgent to develop a reliable prediction model and corresponding workflow for identifying shale gas sweet spots.The formation of gas-bearing shales is closely linked to relative sealevel changes,providing an important approach to predicting sweet spots in the Wufeng-Longmaxi shale in the southern Sichuan Basin,China.Three types of marine shale gas sweet spots are identified in the shale based on their formation stages combined with relative sea-level changes:early,middle,and late transgression types.This study develops a prediction model and workflow for identifying shale gas sweet spots by analyzing relative sea-level changes and facies sequences.Predicting shale gas sweet spots in an explored block using this model and workflow can provide a valuable guide for well design and hydraulic fracturing,significantly enhancing the efficiency of shale gas exploration and development.Notably,the new prediction model and workflow can be utilized for the rapid evaluation of the potential for shale gas development in new shale gas blocks or those with low exploratory maturity.
文摘We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.
文摘BACKGROUND Dyslipidemia was strongly linked to stroke,however the relationship between dyslipidemia and its components and ischemic stroke remained unexplained.AIM To investigate the link between longitudinal changes in lipid profiles and dyslipidemia and ischemic stroke in a hypertensive population.METHODS Between 2013 and 2014,6094 hypertension individuals were included in this,and ischemic stroke cases were documented to the end of 2018.Longitudinal changes of lipid were stratified into four groups:(1)Normal was transformed into normal group;(2)Abnormal was transformed into normal group;(3)Normal was transformed into abnormal group;and(4)Abnormal was transformed into abnormal group.To examine the link between longitudinal changes in dyslipidemia along with its components and the risk of ischemic stroke,we utilized multivariate Cox proportional hazards models with hazard ratio(HR)and 95%CI.RESULTS The average age of the participants was 62.32 years±13.00 years,with 329 women making up 54.0%of the sample.Over the course of a mean follow-up of 4.8 years,143 ischemic strokes happened.When normal was transformed into normal group was used as a reference,after full adjustments,the HR for dyslipidemia and ischemic stroke among abnormal was transformed into normal group,normal was transformed into abnormal group and abnormal was transformed into abnormal Wei CC et al.Dyslipidemia changed and ischemic stroke WJCC https://www.wjgnet.com 2 February 6,2025 Volume 13 Issue 4 group were 1.089(95%CI:0.598-1.982;P=0.779),2.369(95%CI:1.424-3.941;P<0.001)and 1.448(95%CI:1.002-2.298;P=0.047)(P for trend was 0.233),respectively.CONCLUSION In individuals with hypertension,longitudinal shifts from normal to abnormal in dyslipidemia-particularly in total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol-were significantly associated with the risk of ischemic stroke.
基金supported by Henan Province Key R&D Project(241111210400)Henan Provincial Science and Technology Research Project(242102211007 and 242102211020)+1 种基金Jiangsu Science and Technology Programme-General Programme(BK20221260)Science and Technology Innovation Project of Zhengzhou University of Light Industry(23XNKJTD0205).
文摘In recent years,convolutional neural networks(CNN)and Transformer architectures have made significant progress in the field of remote sensing(RS)change detection(CD).Most of the existing methods directly stack multiple layers of Transformer blocks,which achieves considerable improvement in capturing variations,but at a rather high computational cost.We propose a channel-Efficient Change Detection Network(CE-CDNet)to address the problems of high computational cost and imbalanced detection accuracy in remote sensing building change detection.The adaptive multi-scale feature fusion module(CAMSF)and lightweight Transformer decoder(LTD)are introduced to improve the change detection effect.The CAMSF module can adaptively fuse multi-scale features to improve the model’s ability to detect building changes in complex scenes.In addition,the LTD module reduces computational costs and maintains high detection accuracy through an optimized self-attention mechanism and dimensionality reduction operation.Experimental test results on three commonly used remote sensing building change detection data sets show that CE-CDNet can reduce a certain amount of computational overhead while maintaining detection accuracy comparable to existing mainstream models,showing good performance advantages.
基金Funded by Scientific and Technological Innovation Project of Carbon Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality of Jiangsu Province(No.BE2022028-4)。
文摘We adopted the solution impregnation route with aluminum dihydrogen phosphate solution as liquid medium for effective surface modification on graphite substrate.The mass ratio of graphite to Al(H_(2)PO_(4))_(3) changed from 0.5:1 to 4:1,and the impregnation time changed from 1 to 7 h.The typical composite phase change thermal storage materials doped with the as-treated graphite were fabricated using form-stable technique.To investigate the oxidation and anti-oxidation behavior of the impregnated graphite at high temperatures,the samples were put into a muffle furnace for a cyclic heat test.Based on SEM,EDS,DSC techniques,analyses on the impregnated technique suggested an optimized processing conditions of a 3 h impregnation time with the ratio of graphite:Al(H_(2)PO_(4))_(3) as 1:3 for graphite impregnation treatment.Further investigations on high-temperature phase change heat storage materials doped by the treated graphite suggested excellent oxidation resistance and thermal cycling performance.
文摘In Niger, farms have been facing negative effects of climate change for several decades. The objective of this work is to assess the vulnerability of farms in Tillabery department by proposing an adaptation approach. A five-step method and descriptive analysis were used on a sample of 250 farmers. The degree of damage caused by pests and crop diseases is significant, with respective proportions of 52.50% and 40.40%. It appears that the main climate risk factors for vulnerability are droughts, floods, soil degradation, and pest invasions. Additionally, the average level of exposure to agricultural operations is very high, with an index of 0.6. The sensitivity index remained constant in the range of 0.3 to 0.6 and is significant (reaching an index of 0.8). However, 61.2% of farms have a medium level of vulnerability and 33.3% have a high vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Nonetheless, a concerning trend regarding the vulnerability of farms has been observed. To assist policymakers and development actors in improving the vulnerability level of these production units, four phases of action are proposed: a diagnostic phase, evaluation, estimation of adaptation needs, implementation, and proper monitoring of actions.
文摘The department of Tillabéri is primarily affected by climatic phenomena, impacting crop yields, growing cycles, and consequently, the economic outcomes of agricultural operations. The objective of this study is to analyze these impacts of climate disruption on the economic performance of farms. The methodology adopted for this study combined documentary research with field surveys conducted on a sample of 250 randomly selected farmers. The analytical methods used mainly consisted of linear regression, profitability calculations, and linear programming. The findings indicate that all productions across different crops have experienced a decrease over the past 30 years. For instance, the production of millet, sorghum, and cowpea, which were respectively 812 kg/ha, 260 kg/ha, and 100 kg/ha between the last 30 and 20 years, has now dropped to 412 kg/ha, 106 kg/ha, and 46 kg/ha respectively. A negative and significant effect on agricultural net margin was observed due to variables such as flooding, drought, pest invasion in rice fields, and temperature changes. Smallholder farms show a relatively low margin (46%) to cover their fixed costs, which may indicate a risk if fixed expenses are high. Furthermore, the analysis results from linear programming reveal that farmers could achieve an additional net profit per hectare of 116,861 FCFA, 217201.5 FCFA, and 291988.2 FCFA respectively for small, medium, and large producers by managing variable costs and health-related expenses for households.
