A statistical downscaling model is built for the late-winter rainfall over Southwest China(SWC).A partial-correlation method is used for selecting factors.The results show that the selected factors for late-winter rai...A statistical downscaling model is built for the late-winter rainfall over Southwest China(SWC).A partial-correlation method is used for selecting factors.The results show that the selected factors for late-winter rainfall in SWC are sea level pressure in Western Europe(SNAO)and sea surface temperature in Western Pacific(WPT).SNAO is related to the southern pole of North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and excites Southern Eurasian teleconnection,which influences the development of the southern branch trough and the water vapor transport to SWC.WPT indicates the variability of ENSO in the tropical Western Pacific.WPT excites Pacific-East Asia teleconnection and an anticyclone(cyclone)is formed in the southern part of China and suppresses(enhances)rainfall over SWC.A regression statistical downscaling model using SNAO and WPT shows good performance in fitting the variability of late-winter rainfall in the whole SWC region and every observation station,and the model also shows strong robustness in the independent validation.The statistical model can be used for downscaling output from seasonal forecast numerical models and improve the SWC late winter rainfall prediction in the future.展开更多
在大田条件下,研究了水稻秸秆还田和施氮量对晚播小麦产量、养分积累、秸秆养分释放及养分平衡的影响.结果表明:水稻秸秆还田并配施适当的施氮量有利于提高晚播小麦籽粒产量.晚播小麦全生育期的干物质、氮、磷、钾积累量均随施氮量增加...在大田条件下,研究了水稻秸秆还田和施氮量对晚播小麦产量、养分积累、秸秆养分释放及养分平衡的影响.结果表明:水稻秸秆还田并配施适当的施氮量有利于提高晚播小麦籽粒产量.晚播小麦全生育期的干物质、氮、磷、钾积累量均随施氮量增加而显著增加,相同施氮量(270 kg N·hm-2)下,秸秆还田处理的干物质、磷、钾积累高于不还田处理,氮积累则呈相反趋势.随着施氮量增加,秸秆腐解和养分释放率增加,且拔节后秸秆养分释放量占总释放量的比例降低;随生育进程的推进,秸秆的干物质、磷、钾释放量呈倒"N"型变化趋势,而氮释放量则呈"V"型变化趋势.计算养分表观平衡结果表明,秸秆还田并增加施氮量,养分总盈余量显著升高;在获得较高产量的施氮条件下,氮、钾素显著盈余,磷素投入较为合理.晚播小麦实行秸秆还田后,可适当增加氮肥用量至257 kg·hm-2,并减少钾肥投入.展开更多
基金jointly supported by the"Strategic Priority Research Program-Climate Change:Carbon Budget and Relevant Issues"of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA05090403)the National Key Program for Developing Basic Sciences(Grant No.2013CB430200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41205046)
文摘A statistical downscaling model is built for the late-winter rainfall over Southwest China(SWC).A partial-correlation method is used for selecting factors.The results show that the selected factors for late-winter rainfall in SWC are sea level pressure in Western Europe(SNAO)and sea surface temperature in Western Pacific(WPT).SNAO is related to the southern pole of North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and excites Southern Eurasian teleconnection,which influences the development of the southern branch trough and the water vapor transport to SWC.WPT indicates the variability of ENSO in the tropical Western Pacific.WPT excites Pacific-East Asia teleconnection and an anticyclone(cyclone)is formed in the southern part of China and suppresses(enhances)rainfall over SWC.A regression statistical downscaling model using SNAO and WPT shows good performance in fitting the variability of late-winter rainfall in the whole SWC region and every observation station,and the model also shows strong robustness in the independent validation.The statistical model can be used for downscaling output from seasonal forecast numerical models and improve the SWC late winter rainfall prediction in the future.
文摘在大田条件下,研究了水稻秸秆还田和施氮量对晚播小麦产量、养分积累、秸秆养分释放及养分平衡的影响.结果表明:水稻秸秆还田并配施适当的施氮量有利于提高晚播小麦籽粒产量.晚播小麦全生育期的干物质、氮、磷、钾积累量均随施氮量增加而显著增加,相同施氮量(270 kg N·hm-2)下,秸秆还田处理的干物质、磷、钾积累高于不还田处理,氮积累则呈相反趋势.随着施氮量增加,秸秆腐解和养分释放率增加,且拔节后秸秆养分释放量占总释放量的比例降低;随生育进程的推进,秸秆的干物质、磷、钾释放量呈倒"N"型变化趋势,而氮释放量则呈"V"型变化趋势.计算养分表观平衡结果表明,秸秆还田并增加施氮量,养分总盈余量显著升高;在获得较高产量的施氮条件下,氮、钾素显著盈余,磷素投入较为合理.晚播小麦实行秸秆还田后,可适当增加氮肥用量至257 kg·hm-2,并减少钾肥投入.
