With the continuous progress of automatic driving technology,automatic driving technology standards are gradually affecting the determination of criminal responsibility for traffic accidents in China.At present,the ch...With the continuous progress of automatic driving technology,automatic driving technology standards are gradually affecting the determination of criminal responsibility for traffic accidents in China.At present,the characteristics and tendency of China's automatic driving technology standards present the situation of high policy relevance coexisting with low normative binding,professionalism coexist with barriers,forefront coexist with ambiguity.Therefore,challenges are presented both theoretically and practically on the determination of criminal responsibility based on automatic driving technology standard..In this regard,the misunderstanding should be clarified in theory:The legal order under the automatic driving technology standard has constitutionality and systematic,and there is a balance between the frontier of automatic driving technology development and the lagging of criminal law.The automatic driving technology risk level system should be built to clarify the boundary of the effectiveness of criminal law norms,seeking fora breakthrough in the application of the establishment of a comprehensive judgment system of the risks and accidents and the system of evidence to prove the system,which clarifies the determination of criminal responsibility under the automatic driving technology standard.This essay hopes to pursue breakthroughs in the application-to establish a comprehensive judgment system of risks and accidents as well as an evidence proof system,so as to clarify the determination of criminal responsibility under automatic driving technology standards.展开更多
To ensure the safe transportation of radioactive materials,numerous countries have established specific standards.For the transfer of fissile materials,it is imperative that the material within the packaging remains i...To ensure the safe transportation of radioactive materials,numerous countries have established specific standards.For the transfer of fissile materials,it is imperative that the material within the packaging remains in a subcritical state during routine,normal,and accidental transport conditions.In the event of an accident,the rods within the storage tank may become rearranged,introducing uncertainty that must be accounted for to ensure that criticality analysis results are conservative.Historically,this uncertainty was addressed overly conservatively due to limited research on non-uniform arrangement scenarios,which proved unsuitable for criticality safety analysis of spent fuel packages.This paper introduced three distinct methods to non-uniformly rearrange fuel rods—Uniform Arrangement by Blocks,Layer-by-Layer Determination,and Birdcage Deformation—and meticulously evaluates the influences of rod rearrangement on the effective multiplication factor of neutrons,k eff,utilizing the Monte Carlo method.Ultimately,this study presents a holistic method capable of encompassing the entire spectrum of potential effects stemming from the rearrangement of fuel rods during rods mispositioning accident.By augmenting the safety margin,this approach proves to be adeptly suited for the criticality safety analysis of nuclear fuel transport containers.展开更多
Domestic accidents (DA) are common in children and responsible for high morbidity and mortality in developed countries. Objective: This work aimed to describe the epidemiological profile of AD in children aged 0 to 15...Domestic accidents (DA) are common in children and responsible for high morbidity and mortality in developed countries. Objective: This work aimed to describe the epidemiological profile of AD in children aged 0 to 15 years in Libreville. Materials and Methods: All children aged 0 to 15 years who were victims of unintentional trauma occurring at home or in its immediate surroundings were included. We studied the mother’s age, family situation, socioeconomic level, type of housing, age and sex of the child, characteristics of AD and their management. Results: The majority of mothers lived in an intermediate dwelling (80.6%). They were married (37.1%), middle managers (58.2%) and of average socioeconomic level (60.5%). The average age of the mothers was 39.9 ± 11.4 years. Families with more than three children were most exposed (39.2%) to the occurrence of AD. The average age of the children was 6.5 ± 3.3 years with a male predominance. The sex ratio was 1.8. The most common ADs were falls (34.7%), followed by cuts (22.3%) and burns (17.7%). Wounds (54.4%), followed by burns (33%) and fractures (5.1%) were the main types of injuries. The upper limbs were the most affected body part (33.9%) followed by the lower limbs (30.1%) and the head (27.3%). The yard was the preferred location for ADs to occur (51.1%), and particularly during the holiday period (48.4%). The risk factors related to the occurrence of AD were age, socioeconomic level, number of children and type of housing. Care was provided at home in 51.9% of cases. Conclusion: The occurrence of AD in children is not negligible;hence the need to implement preventive measures to minimize their frequency.展开更多
Road Traffic Accidents(RTAs)pose significant threats to public safety and urban infrastructure.While numerous studies have addressed this issue in other countries,there remains a notable gap in localized RTA research ...Road Traffic Accidents(RTAs)pose significant threats to public safety and urban infrastructure.While numerous studies have addressed this issue in other countries,there remains a notable gap in localized RTA research in Sri Lanka.In this context,the present study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of RTAs in theMatara urban area in 2023,with the goal of supporting evidence-based policy interventions.A suite of GIS-based spatial analysis techniques including hotspot analysis,kernel density estimation,GiZ score mapping,and spatial autocorrelation(Moran’s I=0.36,p<0.01)was applied to examine the distribution and contributing factors of RTAs.The results identified several high-risk zones,particularly along the Colombo-Wellawaya main road,as well as near the southern expressway exit,and around Rahula Junction,which collectively accounted for over 40% of all recorded accidents.These areas are characterized by high traffic volumes,complex road geometries,and significant pedestrian activity.Driverrelated behaviors were dominant causes,with negligence accounting for 57% of accidents,aggressive driving for 14%,and alcohol influence for 8%.Temporally,the highest incidence of RTAs(38%)was recorded during the afternoon peak hours(11:00 a.m.to 4:59 p.m.).Based on these findings,targeted policy measures such as enhanced traffic enforcement,infrastructure redesign,and public awareness campaigns are recommended to reduce accident frequency and improve road safety in high-risk areas.This study provides a localized,data-driven framework that can guide urban traffic planning and safety interventions in Matara and similar urban settings.展开更多
This paper proposed a new systematic approach-functional evidential reasoning model(FERM) for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty. First, FERM was introduced to identify various causal...This paper proposed a new systematic approach-functional evidential reasoning model(FERM) for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty. First, FERM was introduced to identify various causal factors and their performance changes in hazardous chemical operational accidents, along with determining the functional failure link relationships. Subsequently, FERM was employed to elucidate both qualitative and quantitative operational accident information within a unified framework, which could be regarded as the input of information fusion to obtain the fuzzy belief distribution of each cause factor. Finally, the derived risk values of the causal factors were ranked while constructing multi-level accident causation chains to unveil the weak links in system functionality and the primary roots of operational accidents. Using the specific case of the “1·15” major explosion and fire accident at Liaoning Panjin Haoye Chemical Co., Ltd., seven causal factors and their corresponding performance changes were identified. Additionally, five accident causation chains were uncovered based on the fuzzy joint distribution of the functional assessment level(FAL) and reliability distribution(RD),revealing an overall increase in risk along the accident evolution path. The research findings demonstrated that FERM enabled the effective characterization, rational quantification and accurate analysis of the inherent uncertainties in hazardous chemical operational accident risks from a systemic perspective.展开更多
We analyzed accident factors in a 2020 ship collision case that occurred off Kii Oshima Island using the SHELL model analysis and examined corresponding collision prevention measures.The SHELL model analysis is a fram...We analyzed accident factors in a 2020 ship collision case that occurred off Kii Oshima Island using the SHELL model analysis and examined corresponding collision prevention measures.The SHELL model analysis is a framework for identifying accident factors related to human abilities and characteristics,hardware,software,and the environment.Beyond assessing the accident factors in each element,we also examined the interrelationship between humans and each element.This study highlights the importance of(1)training to enhance situational awareness,(2)improving decision-making skills,and(3)establishing structured decision-making procedures to prevent maritime collision accidents.Additionally,we considered safety measures through(4)hardware enhancements and(5)environmental measures.Furthermore,to prevent accidents,implementing measures grounded in(6)predictions is deemed effective.This study identified accident factors through prediction alongside the SHELL model analysis and proposed countermeasures based on the findings.By applying these predictions,more countermeasures can be derived,which,when combined strategically,can significantly aid in preventing maritime collision accidents.展开更多
Human factors are critical causes of modern aviation accidents. However, existing accident analysis methods encounter limitations in addressing aviation human factors, especially in complex accident scenarios. The exi...Human factors are critical causes of modern aviation accidents. However, existing accident analysis methods encounter limitations in addressing aviation human factors, especially in complex accident scenarios. The existing graphic approaches are effective for describing accident mechanisms within various categories of human factors, but cannot simultaneously describe inad- equate human-aircraft-environment interactions and organizational deficiencies effectively, and highly depend on analysts＇ skills and experiences. Moreover, the existing methods do not emphasize latent unsafe factors outside accidents. This paper focuses on the above three limitations and proposes an integrated graphi^taxonomic-associative approach. A new graphic model named accident tree （AceiTree）, with a two-mode structure and a reaction-based concept, is developed for accident modeling and safety defense identification. The AcciTree model is then integrated with the well-established human factors analysis and classification system （HFACS） to enhance both reliability of the graphic part and logicality of the taxonomic part for improving completeness of analysis. An associative hazard analysis technique is further put forward to extend analysis to fac- tors outside accidents, to form extended safety requirements for proactive accident prevention. Two crash examples, a research flight demonstrator by our team and an industrial unmanned aircraft, illustrate that the integrated approach is effective for identifying more unsafe factors and safety requirements.展开更多
The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgentdemand for most industrialized countries. In pollution...The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgentdemand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extentdepending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of thewhole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causingwater pollution accidents is presented. The newlydeveloped approach, by analyzing and stimulating thewhole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses,were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park （CIP） along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China,was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that therewere four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plantwould lead to the most serious impact on the surroundingwater environment. This potential accidentwould severelydamage the ecosystem up to3.8 kmdownstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over adistance stretching to 73.7 kmdownstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.展开更多
In order to study the influence of the traffic characteristics on traffic accidents in extra long tunnel, the main measurement indicators of traffic flow during the time of traffic accidents are matched with the accid...In order to study the influence of the traffic characteristics on traffic accidents in extra long tunnel, the main measurement indicators of traffic flow during the time of traffic accidents are matched with the accident information to form a data set of the number of traffic accidents and the hourly traffic flow of the accident. Vehicle ratio and the number of accidents are mainly used as the characteristic indicators of traffic flow. At the same time, the longitudinal distribution law of the average speed of traffic flow and the number of traffic accidents in the extra long tunnel is studied. Based on the superposition principle, the extra long tunnel is divided into 5 traffic safety zones. This paper analyzes the distribution of time, morphology, cause of accident, and other characteristics in different traffic safety zones, finding that the shape of traffic accidents in extra long tunnel is mainly rear-end collisions. Improper operation and illegal lane changes are the main causes of accidents.展开更多
In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The...In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.展开更多
After the Three Gorges Reservoir starts running, it can not only take into consideration the interest of departments such as flood control, power generation, water supply, and shipping, but also reduce or eliminate th...After the Three Gorges Reservoir starts running, it can not only take into consideration the interest of departments such as flood control, power generation, water supply, and shipping, but also reduce or eliminate the adverse effects of pollutants by discharge regulation. The evolution of pollutant plumes under different operation schemes of the Three Gorges Reservoir and three kinds of pollutant discharge types were calculated with the MIKE 21 AD software. The feasibility and effectiveness of the reservoir emergency operation when pollution accidents occur were investigated. The results indicate that the emergency operation produces significant effects on the instantaneous discharge type with lesser effects on the constant discharge type, the impact time is shortened, and the concentration of pollutant is reduced. Meanwhile, the results show that the larger the discharge is and the shorter the operation duration is, the more favorable the result is.展开更多
In order to discover the main causes of elevator group accidents in edge computing environment, a multi-dimensional data model of elevator accident data is established by using data cube technology, proposing and impl...In order to discover the main causes of elevator group accidents in edge computing environment, a multi-dimensional data model of elevator accident data is established by using data cube technology, proposing and implementing a method by combining classical Apriori algorithm with the model, digging out frequent items of elevator accident data to explore the main reasons for the occurrence of elevator accidents. In addition, a collaborative edge model of elevator accidents is set to achieve data sharing, making it possible to check the detail of each cause to confirm the causes of elevator accidents. Lastly the association rules are applied to find the law of elevator Accidents.展开更多
AIM:To investigate the actual injury situation of seniors in traffic accidents and to evaluate the different injury patterns.METHODS:Injury data,environmental circumstances and crash circumstances of accidents were co...AIM:To investigate the actual injury situation of seniors in traffic accidents and to evaluate the different injury patterns.METHODS:Injury data,environmental circumstances and crash circumstances of accidents were collected shortly after the accident event at the scene.With these data,a technical and medical analysis was performed,including Injury Severity Score,Abbreviated Injury Scale and Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale.The method of data collection is named the German InDepth Accident Study and can be seen as representative.RESULTS:A total of 4430 injured seniors in traffic accidents were evaluated.The incidence of sustaining severe injuries to extremities,head and maxillofacial region was significantly higher in the group of elderly people compared to a younger age(P<0.05).The number of accident-related injuries was higher in the group of seniors compared to other groups.CONCLUSION:Seniors are more likely to be involved in traffic injuries and to sustain serious to severe injuries compared to other groups.展开更多
In order to reduce the accident rate of consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)in daily use scenarios,the accident causes are analyzed based on the accident cases of consumer-grade UAVs.By extracting accident ca...In order to reduce the accident rate of consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)in daily use scenarios,the accident causes are analyzed based on the accident cases of consumer-grade UAVs.By extracting accident causing factors based on the Grounded theory,the relationship between these factors is analyzed.The Bayesian network for consumer-grade UAV accidents is constructed.With the Grounded theory-Bayesian network,the probability of four types of accidents is inferred:fall,air collision,disappearance,and personal injury.With the posterior probability of each factor being reversely reasoned,the causal chain with the maximum probability of each accident is obtained.After the sensitivity of each factor is analyzed,the key nodes in the network accordingly are inferred.Then the causing factors of consumer-grade UAV accidents are analyzed.The results show that the probability of fall accident is the highest,the fall accident is associated with the probabilistic maximum causal chain of personal injury,and the sensitivity analysis results of each type of accident as the result node are inconsistent.展开更多
The influence of rainfall and thermal stress in accident occurrence for the period 1985 through 1994 in Hong Kong was investigated. The existence of seasonal variations and weekly cycle was also examined. Daity accide...The influence of rainfall and thermal stress in accident occurrence for the period 1985 through 1994 in Hong Kong was investigated. The existence of seasonal variations and weekly cycle was also examined. Daity accident and meteorological data were obtained from the Transport Department and the Hong Kong Observatory respectively. Utilizing regression analyses and ANOVA, it is discovered that seasonal variation was not important in contributing traffic accidents, and Saturday peak was not ascertained. A non linear relationship between accident occurrence and various rain conditions was found. Accident numbers increased till rain exceeded 50.0 mm. High traffic volume and low speed urban driving in Hong Kong can be the major cause of traffic accidents on rainy days. The impact of heat stress on accident occurrence was found to be statistically significant.展开更多
To predict the thermal-hydraulic(T/H)parameters of the reactor core for liquid-metal-cooled fast reactors(LMFRs),especially under flow blockage accidents,we developed a subchannel code called KMC-FB.This code uses a t...To predict the thermal-hydraulic(T/H)parameters of the reactor core for liquid-metal-cooled fast reactors(LMFRs),especially under flow blockage accidents,we developed a subchannel code called KMC-FB.This code uses a time-dependent,four-equation,singlephase flow model together with a 3D heat conduction model for the fuel rods,which is solved by numerical methods based on the finite difference method with a staggered mesh.Owing to the local effect of the blockage on the flow field,low axial flow,increased forced crossflow,and backflow occur.To more accurately simulate this problem,we implemented a robust and novel solution method.We verified the code with a low-flow(~0.01 m/s)and large-scale blockage case.For the preliminary validation,we compared our results with the experimental data of the NACIE-UP BFPS blockage test and the KIT19ROD blockage test.The results revealed that KMC-FB has sufficient solution accuracy and can be used in future flow blockage analyses for LMFRs.展开更多
In the process of green and smart mine construction under the context of carbon neutrality,China's coal safety situation has been continuously improved in recent years.In order to recognize the development of coal...In the process of green and smart mine construction under the context of carbon neutrality,China's coal safety situation has been continuously improved in recent years.In order to recognize the development of coal production in China and prepare for future monitoring and prevention of safety incidents,this study mainly elaborated on the basic situation of coal resources and national mining accidents over the past five years(2017-2021),from four dimensions(accident level,type,region,and time),and then proposed the preventive measures based on accident statistical laws.The results show that the storage of coal resources has obvious geographic characteristics,mainly concentrated in the Midwest,with coal resources in Shanxi and Shaanxi accounting for about 49.4%.The proportion of coal consumption has dropped from 70.2%to 56%between 2011 and 2021,but still accounts for more than half of the all.Meanwhile,the accident-prone areas are positively correlated with the amount of coal production.Among different levels of coal mine accidents,general accidents had the highest number of accidents and deaths,with 692 accidents and 783 deaths,accounting for 87.6%and 54.64%respectively.The frequency of roof,gas,and transportation accidents is relatively high,and the number of single fatalities caused by gas accidents is the largest,about 4.18.In terms of geographical distribution of accidents,the safety situation in Shanxi Province is the most severe.From the time distribution of coal mine accidents,the accidents mainly occurred in July and August,and rarely occurred in February and December.Finally,the"4+4"safety management model is proposed,combining the statistical results with coal production in China.Based on the existing health and safety management systems,the manage-ments are divided into four sub-categories,and more specific measures are suggested.展开更多
The analysis of huge data is a complex task that cannot be executed without a proper system. Geographic information systems (GISs) have been used by many transportation agencies and police departments to analyze and m...The analysis of huge data is a complex task that cannot be executed without a proper system. Geographic information systems (GISs) have been used by many transportation agencies and police departments to analyze and manage urban traffic accident (UTA) data and for decision making aimed at decreasing accident rates and increasing safety. The exact location of accidents and environmental characteristics must be analyzed as UTAs occur in specific locations with specific characteristics. ArcGIS software is the best choice for obtaining meaningful information and analysis results from UTAs in an observational time span. GIS technology is a fundamental element for investigating and evaluating the complex spatial relationship among different components and urban traffic accident is one of them. Micro or macro analysis of UTAs through the spatial prospective within the geographical environment and urban structure can make a deep micro understanding of UTAs patterns in addition to assisting in decision making. UTAs can be considered complex events that occur in two aspects which are spatial and temporal or space and time in other word. A GIS can integrate more than two different and unrelated databases. The evaluation among different spatial objects in a geographical environment and associated factors in urban structure which are included but not limited to land use category, road transportation network qualification, population density, etc., is one of the GIS specification. Traffic safety organizations and UTA researchers use GISs as a key technology to support their research and operational needs. In particular, GIS-T is an often-used GIS application used for planning and decision-making in transportation.展开更多
An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The...An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncerainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.展开更多
基金The National Social Science Foundation Youth Project of China:Research on the collaborative govemance path of administrative law and criminal law against dangerous driving behaviors in the digital-intelligent society(25CFX108)。
文摘With the continuous progress of automatic driving technology,automatic driving technology standards are gradually affecting the determination of criminal responsibility for traffic accidents in China.At present,the characteristics and tendency of China's automatic driving technology standards present the situation of high policy relevance coexisting with low normative binding,professionalism coexist with barriers,forefront coexist with ambiguity.Therefore,challenges are presented both theoretically and practically on the determination of criminal responsibility based on automatic driving technology standard..In this regard,the misunderstanding should be clarified in theory:The legal order under the automatic driving technology standard has constitutionality and systematic,and there is a balance between the frontier of automatic driving technology development and the lagging of criminal law.The automatic driving technology risk level system should be built to clarify the boundary of the effectiveness of criminal law norms,seeking fora breakthrough in the application of the establishment of a comprehensive judgment system of the risks and accidents and the system of evidence to prove the system,which clarifies the determination of criminal responsibility under the automatic driving technology standard.This essay hopes to pursue breakthroughs in the application-to establish a comprehensive judgment system of risks and accidents as well as an evidence proof system,so as to clarify the determination of criminal responsibility under automatic driving technology standards.
文摘To ensure the safe transportation of radioactive materials,numerous countries have established specific standards.For the transfer of fissile materials,it is imperative that the material within the packaging remains in a subcritical state during routine,normal,and accidental transport conditions.In the event of an accident,the rods within the storage tank may become rearranged,introducing uncertainty that must be accounted for to ensure that criticality analysis results are conservative.Historically,this uncertainty was addressed overly conservatively due to limited research on non-uniform arrangement scenarios,which proved unsuitable for criticality safety analysis of spent fuel packages.This paper introduced three distinct methods to non-uniformly rearrange fuel rods—Uniform Arrangement by Blocks,Layer-by-Layer Determination,and Birdcage Deformation—and meticulously evaluates the influences of rod rearrangement on the effective multiplication factor of neutrons,k eff,utilizing the Monte Carlo method.Ultimately,this study presents a holistic method capable of encompassing the entire spectrum of potential effects stemming from the rearrangement of fuel rods during rods mispositioning accident.By augmenting the safety margin,this approach proves to be adeptly suited for the criticality safety analysis of nuclear fuel transport containers.
文摘Domestic accidents (DA) are common in children and responsible for high morbidity and mortality in developed countries. Objective: This work aimed to describe the epidemiological profile of AD in children aged 0 to 15 years in Libreville. Materials and Methods: All children aged 0 to 15 years who were victims of unintentional trauma occurring at home or in its immediate surroundings were included. We studied the mother’s age, family situation, socioeconomic level, type of housing, age and sex of the child, characteristics of AD and their management. Results: The majority of mothers lived in an intermediate dwelling (80.6%). They were married (37.1%), middle managers (58.2%) and of average socioeconomic level (60.5%). The average age of the mothers was 39.9 ± 11.4 years. Families with more than three children were most exposed (39.2%) to the occurrence of AD. The average age of the children was 6.5 ± 3.3 years with a male predominance. The sex ratio was 1.8. The most common ADs were falls (34.7%), followed by cuts (22.3%) and burns (17.7%). Wounds (54.4%), followed by burns (33%) and fractures (5.1%) were the main types of injuries. The upper limbs were the most affected body part (33.9%) followed by the lower limbs (30.1%) and the head (27.3%). The yard was the preferred location for ADs to occur (51.1%), and particularly during the holiday period (48.4%). The risk factors related to the occurrence of AD were age, socioeconomic level, number of children and type of housing. Care was provided at home in 51.9% of cases. Conclusion: The occurrence of AD in children is not negligible;hence the need to implement preventive measures to minimize their frequency.
文摘Road Traffic Accidents(RTAs)pose significant threats to public safety and urban infrastructure.While numerous studies have addressed this issue in other countries,there remains a notable gap in localized RTA research in Sri Lanka.In this context,the present study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of RTAs in theMatara urban area in 2023,with the goal of supporting evidence-based policy interventions.A suite of GIS-based spatial analysis techniques including hotspot analysis,kernel density estimation,GiZ score mapping,and spatial autocorrelation(Moran’s I=0.36,p<0.01)was applied to examine the distribution and contributing factors of RTAs.The results identified several high-risk zones,particularly along the Colombo-Wellawaya main road,as well as near the southern expressway exit,and around Rahula Junction,which collectively accounted for over 40% of all recorded accidents.These areas are characterized by high traffic volumes,complex road geometries,and significant pedestrian activity.Driverrelated behaviors were dominant causes,with negligence accounting for 57% of accidents,aggressive driving for 14%,and alcohol influence for 8%.Temporally,the highest incidence of RTAs(38%)was recorded during the afternoon peak hours(11:00 a.m.to 4:59 p.m.).Based on these findings,targeted policy measures such as enhanced traffic enforcement,infrastructure redesign,and public awareness campaigns are recommended to reduce accident frequency and improve road safety in high-risk areas.This study provides a localized,data-driven framework that can guide urban traffic planning and safety interventions in Matara and similar urban settings.
基金supported by the National Key Research&Development Program of China(2021YFB3301100)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52004014)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(ZY2406).
文摘This paper proposed a new systematic approach-functional evidential reasoning model(FERM) for exploring hazardous chemical operational accidents under uncertainty. First, FERM was introduced to identify various causal factors and their performance changes in hazardous chemical operational accidents, along with determining the functional failure link relationships. Subsequently, FERM was employed to elucidate both qualitative and quantitative operational accident information within a unified framework, which could be regarded as the input of information fusion to obtain the fuzzy belief distribution of each cause factor. Finally, the derived risk values of the causal factors were ranked while constructing multi-level accident causation chains to unveil the weak links in system functionality and the primary roots of operational accidents. Using the specific case of the “1·15” major explosion and fire accident at Liaoning Panjin Haoye Chemical Co., Ltd., seven causal factors and their corresponding performance changes were identified. Additionally, five accident causation chains were uncovered based on the fuzzy joint distribution of the functional assessment level(FAL) and reliability distribution(RD),revealing an overall increase in risk along the accident evolution path. The research findings demonstrated that FERM enabled the effective characterization, rational quantification and accurate analysis of the inherent uncertainties in hazardous chemical operational accident risks from a systemic perspective.
文摘We analyzed accident factors in a 2020 ship collision case that occurred off Kii Oshima Island using the SHELL model analysis and examined corresponding collision prevention measures.The SHELL model analysis is a framework for identifying accident factors related to human abilities and characteristics,hardware,software,and the environment.Beyond assessing the accident factors in each element,we also examined the interrelationship between humans and each element.This study highlights the importance of(1)training to enhance situational awareness,(2)improving decision-making skills,and(3)establishing structured decision-making procedures to prevent maritime collision accidents.Additionally,we considered safety measures through(4)hardware enhancements and(5)environmental measures.Furthermore,to prevent accidents,implementing measures grounded in(6)predictions is deemed effective.This study identified accident factors through prediction alongside the SHELL model analysis and proposed countermeasures based on the findings.By applying these predictions,more countermeasures can be derived,which,when combined strategically,can significantly aid in preventing maritime collision accidents.
基金co-supported by the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Team in University of Ministry of Education of China (IRT0905)the Step Program of Beijing Key Laboratory (No. Z121104002812053)
文摘Human factors are critical causes of modern aviation accidents. However, existing accident analysis methods encounter limitations in addressing aviation human factors, especially in complex accident scenarios. The existing graphic approaches are effective for describing accident mechanisms within various categories of human factors, but cannot simultaneously describe inad- equate human-aircraft-environment interactions and organizational deficiencies effectively, and highly depend on analysts＇ skills and experiences. Moreover, the existing methods do not emphasize latent unsafe factors outside accidents. This paper focuses on the above three limitations and proposes an integrated graphi^taxonomic-associative approach. A new graphic model named accident tree （AceiTree）, with a two-mode structure and a reaction-based concept, is developed for accident modeling and safety defense identification. The AcciTree model is then integrated with the well-established human factors analysis and classification system （HFACS） to enhance both reliability of the graphic part and logicality of the taxonomic part for improving completeness of analysis. An associative hazard analysis technique is further put forward to extend analysis to fac- tors outside accidents, to form extended safety requirements for proactive accident prevention. Two crash examples, a research flight demonstrator by our team and an industrial unmanned aircraft, illustrate that the integrated approach is effective for identifying more unsafe factors and safety requirements.
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program(863) of China(No.2007AA06A402,2008AA06A404)the National Major Program of Science and Technology for Water Pollution Control and Governance(No.2012ZX07202-005)
文摘The chemical industry is a major source of various pollution accidents. Improving the management level of risk sources for pollution accidents has become an urgentdemand for most industrialized countries. In pollution accidents, the released chemicals harm the receptors to some extentdepending on their sensitivity or susceptibility. Therefore, identifying the potential risk sources from such a large number of chemical enterprises has become pressingly urgent. Based on the simulation of thewhole accident process, a novel and expandable identification method for risk sources causingwater pollution accidents is presented. The newlydeveloped approach, by analyzing and stimulating thewhole process of a pollution accident between sources and receptors, can be applied to identify risk sources, especially on the nationwide scale. Three major types of losses, such as social, economic and ecological losses,were normalized, analyzed and used for overall consequence modeling. A specific case study area, located in a chemical industry park （CIP） along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China,was selected to test the potential of the identification method. The results showed that therewere four risk sources for pollution accidents in this CIP. Aniline leakage in the HS Chemical Plantwould lead to the most serious impact on the surroundingwater environment. This potential accidentwould severelydamage the ecosystem up to3.8 kmdownstream of Yangtze River, and lead to pollution over adistance stretching to 73.7 kmdownstream. The proposed method is easily extended to the nationwide identification of potential risk sources.
文摘In order to study the influence of the traffic characteristics on traffic accidents in extra long tunnel, the main measurement indicators of traffic flow during the time of traffic accidents are matched with the accident information to form a data set of the number of traffic accidents and the hourly traffic flow of the accident. Vehicle ratio and the number of accidents are mainly used as the characteristic indicators of traffic flow. At the same time, the longitudinal distribution law of the average speed of traffic flow and the number of traffic accidents in the extra long tunnel is studied. Based on the superposition principle, the extra long tunnel is divided into 5 traffic safety zones. This paper analyzes the distribution of time, morphology, cause of accident, and other characteristics in different traffic safety zones, finding that the shape of traffic accidents in extra long tunnel is mainly rear-end collisions. Improper operation and illegal lane changes are the main causes of accidents.
文摘In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.
基金supported by the Nonprofit Scientific Research Project of the Ministry of Water Resources of China (Grant No. 20081035)the National Fund for Major Projects of Water Pollution Control (Grant No. 2009ZX07104-006)
文摘After the Three Gorges Reservoir starts running, it can not only take into consideration the interest of departments such as flood control, power generation, water supply, and shipping, but also reduce or eliminate the adverse effects of pollutants by discharge regulation. The evolution of pollutant plumes under different operation schemes of the Three Gorges Reservoir and three kinds of pollutant discharge types were calculated with the MIKE 21 AD software. The feasibility and effectiveness of the reservoir emergency operation when pollution accidents occur were investigated. The results indicate that the emergency operation produces significant effects on the instantaneous discharge type with lesser effects on the constant discharge type, the impact time is shortened, and the concentration of pollutant is reduced. Meanwhile, the results show that the larger the discharge is and the shorter the operation duration is, the more favorable the result is.
文摘In order to discover the main causes of elevator group accidents in edge computing environment, a multi-dimensional data model of elevator accident data is established by using data cube technology, proposing and implementing a method by combining classical Apriori algorithm with the model, digging out frequent items of elevator accident data to explore the main reasons for the occurrence of elevator accidents. In addition, a collaborative edge model of elevator accidents is set to achieve data sharing, making it possible to check the detail of each cause to confirm the causes of elevator accidents. Lastly the association rules are applied to find the law of elevator Accidents.
基金Supported by Federal Highway Research Institute(BASt)the German Research Association of the Automotive Technology,a department of the VDA(German Association of the Automotive Industry)
文摘AIM:To investigate the actual injury situation of seniors in traffic accidents and to evaluate the different injury patterns.METHODS:Injury data,environmental circumstances and crash circumstances of accidents were collected shortly after the accident event at the scene.With these data,a technical and medical analysis was performed,including Injury Severity Score,Abbreviated Injury Scale and Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale.The method of data collection is named the German InDepth Accident Study and can be seen as representative.RESULTS:A total of 4430 injured seniors in traffic accidents were evaluated.The incidence of sustaining severe injuries to extremities,head and maxillofacial region was significantly higher in the group of elderly people compared to a younger age(P<0.05).The number of accident-related injuries was higher in the group of seniors compared to other groups.CONCLUSION:Seniors are more likely to be involved in traffic injuries and to sustain serious to severe injuries compared to other groups.
基金supported by the Fun⁃damental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.3122022103).
文摘In order to reduce the accident rate of consumer-grade unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)in daily use scenarios,the accident causes are analyzed based on the accident cases of consumer-grade UAVs.By extracting accident causing factors based on the Grounded theory,the relationship between these factors is analyzed.The Bayesian network for consumer-grade UAV accidents is constructed.With the Grounded theory-Bayesian network,the probability of four types of accidents is inferred:fall,air collision,disappearance,and personal injury.With the posterior probability of each factor being reversely reasoned,the causal chain with the maximum probability of each accident is obtained.After the sensitivity of each factor is analyzed,the key nodes in the network accordingly are inferred.Then the causing factors of consumer-grade UAV accidents are analyzed.The results show that the probability of fall accident is the highest,the fall accident is associated with the probabilistic maximum causal chain of personal injury,and the sensitivity analysis results of each type of accident as the result node are inconsistent.
文摘The influence of rainfall and thermal stress in accident occurrence for the period 1985 through 1994 in Hong Kong was investigated. The existence of seasonal variations and weekly cycle was also examined. Daity accident and meteorological data were obtained from the Transport Department and the Hong Kong Observatory respectively. Utilizing regression analyses and ANOVA, it is discovered that seasonal variation was not important in contributing traffic accidents, and Saturday peak was not ascertained. A non linear relationship between accident occurrence and various rain conditions was found. Accident numbers increased till rain exceeded 50.0 mm. High traffic volume and low speed urban driving in Hong Kong can be the major cause of traffic accidents on rainy days. The impact of heat stress on accident occurrence was found to be statistically significant.
文摘To predict the thermal-hydraulic(T/H)parameters of the reactor core for liquid-metal-cooled fast reactors(LMFRs),especially under flow blockage accidents,we developed a subchannel code called KMC-FB.This code uses a time-dependent,four-equation,singlephase flow model together with a 3D heat conduction model for the fuel rods,which is solved by numerical methods based on the finite difference method with a staggered mesh.Owing to the local effect of the blockage on the flow field,low axial flow,increased forced crossflow,and backflow occur.To more accurately simulate this problem,we implemented a robust and novel solution method.We verified the code with a low-flow(~0.01 m/s)and large-scale blockage case.For the preliminary validation,we compared our results with the experimental data of the NACIE-UP BFPS blockage test and the KIT19ROD blockage test.The results revealed that KMC-FB has sufficient solution accuracy and can be used in future flow blockage analyses for LMFRs.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC3004701)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52274242,51904293)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK20190627)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2019M661998).
文摘In the process of green and smart mine construction under the context of carbon neutrality,China's coal safety situation has been continuously improved in recent years.In order to recognize the development of coal production in China and prepare for future monitoring and prevention of safety incidents,this study mainly elaborated on the basic situation of coal resources and national mining accidents over the past five years(2017-2021),from four dimensions(accident level,type,region,and time),and then proposed the preventive measures based on accident statistical laws.The results show that the storage of coal resources has obvious geographic characteristics,mainly concentrated in the Midwest,with coal resources in Shanxi and Shaanxi accounting for about 49.4%.The proportion of coal consumption has dropped from 70.2%to 56%between 2011 and 2021,but still accounts for more than half of the all.Meanwhile,the accident-prone areas are positively correlated with the amount of coal production.Among different levels of coal mine accidents,general accidents had the highest number of accidents and deaths,with 692 accidents and 783 deaths,accounting for 87.6%and 54.64%respectively.The frequency of roof,gas,and transportation accidents is relatively high,and the number of single fatalities caused by gas accidents is the largest,about 4.18.In terms of geographical distribution of accidents,the safety situation in Shanxi Province is the most severe.From the time distribution of coal mine accidents,the accidents mainly occurred in July and August,and rarely occurred in February and December.Finally,the"4+4"safety management model is proposed,combining the statistical results with coal production in China.Based on the existing health and safety management systems,the manage-ments are divided into four sub-categories,and more specific measures are suggested.
文摘The analysis of huge data is a complex task that cannot be executed without a proper system. Geographic information systems (GISs) have been used by many transportation agencies and police departments to analyze and manage urban traffic accident (UTA) data and for decision making aimed at decreasing accident rates and increasing safety. The exact location of accidents and environmental characteristics must be analyzed as UTAs occur in specific locations with specific characteristics. ArcGIS software is the best choice for obtaining meaningful information and analysis results from UTAs in an observational time span. GIS technology is a fundamental element for investigating and evaluating the complex spatial relationship among different components and urban traffic accident is one of them. Micro or macro analysis of UTAs through the spatial prospective within the geographical environment and urban structure can make a deep micro understanding of UTAs patterns in addition to assisting in decision making. UTAs can be considered complex events that occur in two aspects which are spatial and temporal or space and time in other word. A GIS can integrate more than two different and unrelated databases. The evaluation among different spatial objects in a geographical environment and associated factors in urban structure which are included but not limited to land use category, road transportation network qualification, population density, etc., is one of the GIS specification. Traffic safety organizations and UTA researchers use GISs as a key technology to support their research and operational needs. In particular, GIS-T is an often-used GIS application used for planning and decision-making in transportation.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51208065)the Science and Technology Planning Project of Hunan Province(No.2015JC3056)+1 种基金the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province(No.2015B010110005)the Project of Hunan Province key Laboratory of Safety Design and Reliability Technology for Engineering Vehicle(No.KF1506)
文摘An analysis system of informational uncertainties for accidental risk assessment of chemicals is introduced. Statistical test methods and fuzzy sets method can do the quantitative analysis of the input parameters. The uncerainties of the model can be used by quantitative compared method for the leakage accidents of chemicals. The estimation of the leaking time is important for discussing accidental source term. The uncertain analyses of the release accident for pipeline gas (CO) liquid chlorine and liquid propane gas (LPG) have been discussed.
