Urban innovation is essential to strengthening national innovation capacity and technological capabilities,placing its sustained development at the heart of scholarly debate.This study explores the impact of productiv...Urban innovation is essential to strengthening national innovation capacity and technological capabilities,placing its sustained development at the heart of scholarly debate.This study explores the impact of productive-oriented local government debt expansion on urban innovation,leveraging China’s“Four Trillion Yuan”stimulus plan in 2008 as a natural experiment and drawing on urban panel data.Through the lens of productive government debt,we find that such expansion significantly boosts urban innovation,driven by three key mechanisms:infrastructure support,government innovation subsidies,and talent agglomeration.However,heterogeneity analysis reveals that this positive effect weakens in China’s central and western regions,cities with higher administrative status,and those with lower marketization levels,where the impact becomes negligible.Further scrutiny shows that local government financing vehicle(LGFV)bonds and special local government bonds earmarked for infrastructure effectively spur urban innovation,whereas general bonds and LGFV bonds used for“borrowing new to repay old”yield little to no benefit.These findings underscore that local government debt,when channeled toward productive ends,can fuel urban innovation.As the central government works to mitigate implicit debt risks,it must weigh the distinct roles of debt funds-considering regional economic conditions and institutional contexts-and tailor policies to time and place.This study offers theoretical insights and practical guidance for decoding the intricate link between government debt and innovation,enriching both scholarship and policy discourse.展开更多
This study explores the relationship between corporate environmental,social,and governance(ESG)disagreements and corporate debt maturity.By examining panel samples from Chinese non-financial listed companies covering ...This study explores the relationship between corporate environmental,social,and governance(ESG)disagreements and corporate debt maturity.By examining panel samples from Chinese non-financial listed companies covering 2007 to 2020,we find that ESG disagreements negatively influence corporate debt maturity.Even after conducting a series of robustness tests and addressing endogeneity concerns,the adverse effects of ESG disagreements persisted.A heterogeneity analysis shows that this negative impact is more significant for non-state-owned enterprises,small enterprises,enterprises with high capital intensity,enterprises with low analyst attention,and enterprises in high-tech industries.Through a mechanism analysis,we discovered that ESG disagreements can lead to information asymmetry and heightened default risk,subsequently affecting the maturity of corporate debt.Further analysis confirms that the negative impact of ESG on the debt structure inhibits long-term investment and exacerbates the mismatch between investment and financing terms.展开更多
Given the existence of real estate market bubbles and risks arising from high government debt,countries are faced with the challenge of preventing systemic risks.This study investigates the macroeconomic dynamics of t...Given the existence of real estate market bubbles and risks arising from high government debt,countries are faced with the challenge of preventing systemic risks.This study investigates the macroeconomic dynamics of the real estate market and local government debt risk from the perspective of liquidity constraints.We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with real estate and local government debt risk based on the New Keynesian-Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model(NK-DSGE)model to investigate the transmission path of local government debt risk under real estate regulation.In addition,we analyze the risk transmission between the real estate market and local government under different tax systems and investigate the shock to household welfare from a local government debt default.The results show monetary policy can effectively control the scale of local government debt to reduce default risk.An increase in property taxes that restrains housing demand can effectively regulate the real estate market.Although reducing taxes can increase macroeconomic output,reducing tax rates on consumption,capital,and labor weakens the liquidity of household assets.Further,lowering taxes increases local government default risk,which reduces household welfare and makes it more difficult for local governments to deleverage.Our findings provide important insights for countries seeking an effective real estate regulation mechanism to curb local government default risk.展开更多
Based on the concept of debt duration,this paper proposes the elasticity of cash flow.Then,the debt maturity structure in project financing is discussed.The results show that in the project financing structure,the deb...Based on the concept of debt duration,this paper proposes the elasticity of cash flow.Then,the debt maturity structure in project financing is discussed.The results show that in the project financing structure,the debt maturity structure is closely related with debt capacity.Higher debt ratio requires short term debt,and vise versa.展开更多
In this paper we examine private debt developments in Greece from 1970 onwards. We find private debt nearly stationary for about 20 years （starting from extremely low values） and expanding thereafter in nearly explo...In this paper we examine private debt developments in Greece from 1970 onwards. We find private debt nearly stationary for about 20 years （starting from extremely low values） and expanding thereafter in nearly explosive terms. By disaggregating the time series of private debt, we pinpoint household debt （consumer, credit cards and mortgages） as the reason for this exponential increase. When considering demand and supply curves for household debt, shifts of the curves are to be interpreted： explanations from the demand side include, among others, expectations of future incomes. Regarding the supply side, the availability of loans （partly attributable to increased bank competition） and overall bank deregulation are proposed. Financial deregulation permitted banks to move promptly and offer to ambitious （but not necessarily solvent） customers a wide spectrum of choices： mortgages, credit cards, consumer loans and so on. Every single step in the process of financial deregulation was accompanied by a higher level of household indebtedness. Moving up from the household level to the macroeconomic level, increased debt had been also a solution to stalling effective demand, possibly due to the redistribution of income. Empirical analysis and causality tests are conducted along these lines and we find a two way causal relationship between GDP growth and private debt.展开更多
基金Youth Program of the National Social Science Foundation of China(NSSFC),“Research on the Impact of Land Transfer Marketization on the Transformation and Upgrading of Manufacturing in the New Era”(Grant No.23CJL010)Major Project of Renmin University of China Scientific Research Fund,“Research on the Mechanism of Government Guidance Funds Promoting High-Quality Development”(Grant No.23XNL007)funded by the Advantageous Discipline Project under the Peak Strategy of the CASS(industrial economics).
文摘Urban innovation is essential to strengthening national innovation capacity and technological capabilities,placing its sustained development at the heart of scholarly debate.This study explores the impact of productive-oriented local government debt expansion on urban innovation,leveraging China’s“Four Trillion Yuan”stimulus plan in 2008 as a natural experiment and drawing on urban panel data.Through the lens of productive government debt,we find that such expansion significantly boosts urban innovation,driven by three key mechanisms:infrastructure support,government innovation subsidies,and talent agglomeration.However,heterogeneity analysis reveals that this positive effect weakens in China’s central and western regions,cities with higher administrative status,and those with lower marketization levels,where the impact becomes negligible.Further scrutiny shows that local government financing vehicle(LGFV)bonds and special local government bonds earmarked for infrastructure effectively spur urban innovation,whereas general bonds and LGFV bonds used for“borrowing new to repay old”yield little to no benefit.These findings underscore that local government debt,when channeled toward productive ends,can fuel urban innovation.As the central government works to mitigate implicit debt risks,it must weigh the distinct roles of debt funds-considering regional economic conditions and institutional contexts-and tailor policies to time and place.This study offers theoretical insights and practical guidance for decoding the intricate link between government debt and innovation,enriching both scholarship and policy discourse.
基金STU Scientific Research Initiation Grant[Grant No.STF24004T]Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China[Grant No.2021B1515020103].
文摘This study explores the relationship between corporate environmental,social,and governance(ESG)disagreements and corporate debt maturity.By examining panel samples from Chinese non-financial listed companies covering 2007 to 2020,we find that ESG disagreements negatively influence corporate debt maturity.Even after conducting a series of robustness tests and addressing endogeneity concerns,the adverse effects of ESG disagreements persisted.A heterogeneity analysis shows that this negative impact is more significant for non-state-owned enterprises,small enterprises,enterprises with high capital intensity,enterprises with low analyst attention,and enterprises in high-tech industries.Through a mechanism analysis,we discovered that ESG disagreements can lead to information asymmetry and heightened default risk,subsequently affecting the maturity of corporate debt.Further analysis confirms that the negative impact of ESG on the debt structure inhibits long-term investment and exacerbates the mismatch between investment and financing terms.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.72271135,72141304,71901130)National Social Science Fund of China(22&ZD117)+3 种基金Laboratory of Computation and Analytics of Complex Management Systems(Tianjin University)Special Funds for Taishan Scholars(tsqn202211120)2024 Qingdao Finance Society Key Project2024 Qingdao Social Science Planning Project.
文摘Given the existence of real estate market bubbles and risks arising from high government debt,countries are faced with the challenge of preventing systemic risks.This study investigates the macroeconomic dynamics of the real estate market and local government debt risk from the perspective of liquidity constraints.We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with real estate and local government debt risk based on the New Keynesian-Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model(NK-DSGE)model to investigate the transmission path of local government debt risk under real estate regulation.In addition,we analyze the risk transmission between the real estate market and local government under different tax systems and investigate the shock to household welfare from a local government debt default.The results show monetary policy can effectively control the scale of local government debt to reduce default risk.An increase in property taxes that restrains housing demand can effectively regulate the real estate market.Although reducing taxes can increase macroeconomic output,reducing tax rates on consumption,capital,and labor weakens the liquidity of household assets.Further,lowering taxes increases local government default risk,which reduces household welfare and makes it more difficult for local governments to deleverage.Our findings provide important insights for countries seeking an effective real estate regulation mechanism to curb local government default risk.
文摘Based on the concept of debt duration,this paper proposes the elasticity of cash flow.Then,the debt maturity structure in project financing is discussed.The results show that in the project financing structure,the debt maturity structure is closely related with debt capacity.Higher debt ratio requires short term debt,and vise versa.
文摘In this paper we examine private debt developments in Greece from 1970 onwards. We find private debt nearly stationary for about 20 years （starting from extremely low values） and expanding thereafter in nearly explosive terms. By disaggregating the time series of private debt, we pinpoint household debt （consumer, credit cards and mortgages） as the reason for this exponential increase. When considering demand and supply curves for household debt, shifts of the curves are to be interpreted： explanations from the demand side include, among others, expectations of future incomes. Regarding the supply side, the availability of loans （partly attributable to increased bank competition） and overall bank deregulation are proposed. Financial deregulation permitted banks to move promptly and offer to ambitious （but not necessarily solvent） customers a wide spectrum of choices： mortgages, credit cards, consumer loans and so on. Every single step in the process of financial deregulation was accompanied by a higher level of household indebtedness. Moving up from the household level to the macroeconomic level, increased debt had been also a solution to stalling effective demand, possibly due to the redistribution of income. Empirical analysis and causality tests are conducted along these lines and we find a two way causal relationship between GDP growth and private debt.
