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中国经济增长与通胀的混频预测--基于Sims-Zha先验分布的BVAR模型 被引量:3
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作者 许永洪 殷路皓 朱建平 《数理统计与管理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2022年第2期225-238,共14页
Sims-Zha先验分布使用两组虚拟变量提取了时间序列中单位根和协整的先验信息,将GLP等主流模型一般化为其特例。本文使用GDP与CPI的环比和累计同比混频数据,参考混频数据和超参数选择的研究成果,根据中国经济特点进行推导和测试后建立了S... Sims-Zha先验分布使用两组虚拟变量提取了时间序列中单位根和协整的先验信息,将GLP等主流模型一般化为其特例。本文使用GDP与CPI的环比和累计同比混频数据,参考混频数据和超参数选择的研究成果,根据中国经济特点进行推导和测试后建立了Sims-Zha先验分布的贝叶斯向量自回归模型,并通过对预测结果的RMSE数值与国际上关于此问题的其他流行模型预测结果的RMSE值进行比较。研究发现:当GDP的原始数据不平稳需要进行一阶差分处理时,设定没有截距项的Sims-Zha先验分布的贝叶斯向量自回归模型,预测效果比原模型更优,当GDP的原始数据平稳时,则Sims-Zha先验分布的贝叶斯向量自回归模型比原模型预测效果更优,有无外生变量对模型预测效果的影响不明显,无外生变量累计同比增长率预测模型的预测效果最优;相比常用模型Sims-Zha先验分布下的贝叶斯向量自回归模型在GDP上的短期预测效果更精准,在CPI的短期预测上预测效果差于GLP模型,但是优于其他模型. 展开更多
关键词 Sims-zha先验分布 贝叶斯向量自回归模型 混频数据
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敦煌藏文文献中“gser zha”地名考
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作者 能周 《青海民族大学学报(藏文版)》 2025年第2期123-135,共13页
通过文献学与实地调查相结合的方法,对敦煌藏文写本I.O.750《吐蕃大事记》和P.T.1283《兄弟问答录》中记载的“赛尔霞”(gserzha)地名进行了专题考辨。研究表明,该地名指标现今甘肃省甘南藏族自治州玛曲县阿万仓镇附近的“色尔霞”(gser... 通过文献学与实地调查相结合的方法,对敦煌藏文写本I.O.750《吐蕃大事记》和P.T.1283《兄弟问答录》中记载的“赛尔霞”(gserzha)地名进行了专题考辨。研究表明,该地名指标现今甘肃省甘南藏族自治州玛曲县阿万仓镇附近的“色尔霞”(gserzha,或gserzhal)或“色廓”(gserkhog)长谷是正确的。理由如下:第一,该地区居民至今仍自称为“赛尔霞”;第二,文献中载“赞普夏驻赛尔霞”,在该地区现存一处城堡遗址,民间传说中普遍认为是赞普美阿匆(墀德祖赞)的行宫遗址;第三,近年来,在该遗址及其附近地区出土了大量兵器,其形制与海外博物馆、哲蚌寺所藏铠甲和都兰吐蕃墓葬的兵器极为相似;第四,赛尔霞附近还存有一些墓葬,据传为赞普时期大臣的陵墓;第五,《吐蕃大事记》中记载的多麦地区地名,如“林之倭儿甲”(glinggiaolbyag)“松州”(zong cu)“洮州”(the'u chu)“悉州”(shiskro'u)“日垅桑”(re lung bzangs)“桑格尔”(zangskar)等,均位于赛尔霞周边或邻近区域。 展开更多
关键词 敦煌藏文写本I.O.750 赛尔霞 墀德祖赞行宫遗址
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新型廉价活性剂ZHA的制备及性能评价
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作者 张乔良 张贵才 +3 位作者 葛际江 齐宁 马涛 殷艳玲 《钻采工艺》 CAS 2004年第4期85-87,共3页
制备了复合廉价活性剂ZHA。研究表明 :产品界面活性优异 ,能与酸性稠油达到 10 -3 mN/m的超低界面张力 ,耐温耐盐性能良好 ,能耐 12 0℃高温 ,2× 10 -2 mg/L的NaCl和 3 5× 10 -4mg/L的Ca2 + 矿化度。产品成本低廉 ,不到常用... 制备了复合廉价活性剂ZHA。研究表明 :产品界面活性优异 ,能与酸性稠油达到 10 -3 mN/m的超低界面张力 ,耐温耐盐性能良好 ,能耐 12 0℃高温 ,2× 10 -2 mg/L的NaCl和 3 5× 10 -4mg/L的Ca2 + 矿化度。产品成本低廉 ,不到常用活性剂OP - 10和石油磺酸盐的一半 ,是一种具有价格优势和市场竞争力的廉价活性剂。 展开更多
关键词 zha 制备方法 活性剂驱工艺 表面活性 油脂 矿化度
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The Current Situation and Development of Chinese Animated Films:Taking Ne Zha as an Example
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作者 黄斌 袁万君 《海外英语》 2021年第22期293-294,共2页
Taking Ne Zha as an example,this paper analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese animated films at the presentstage.Under the condition of both opportunities and challenges,some measures to develop Chinese anim... Taking Ne Zha as an example,this paper analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of Chinese animated films at the presentstage.Under the condition of both opportunities and challenges,some measures to develop Chinese animated films are proposed. 展开更多
关键词 Chinese animated films Ne zha opportunities and challenges
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KOMOREBI——2010湖南大学DAL+ZHA|CODE工作营的建造实践 被引量:3
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作者 胡骉 杜宇 《城市建筑》 2011年第9期42-43,共2页
湖南大学建筑学院从2009年开始,以数字建筑实验室(DAL)为核心,与ZHA|CODE等设计研究机构合作,每年主办多次主题丰富的数字建筑工作营。本文对2010年度双方联合主办的HyperThreads数字训练营的具体进行介绍。
关键词 数字建筑实验室 工作营 计算机设计研究组 建造实践
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关于ZAHA HADID的提问:访ZHA公司北京项目部建筑师温韬
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作者 本刊编辑部 王舒展 +1 位作者 王祥东 陈尧 《建筑创作》 2011年第4期18-31,共14页
在2010年底,在广州大剧院落成不久,本刊通过email,向Zaha Hadid Architects(ZHA)北京银河SOHO项目组中的建筑师温韬,提出了关于ZahaHadid、她的公司以及她的作品等诸多问题,希望从一位ZHA公司员工的角度,解读Zaha在中国的建筑创作。他... 在2010年底,在广州大剧院落成不久,本刊通过email,向Zaha Hadid Architects(ZHA)北京银河SOHO项目组中的建筑师温韬,提出了关于ZahaHadid、她的公司以及她的作品等诸多问题,希望从一位ZHA公司员工的角度,解读Zaha在中国的建筑创作。他以感性的方式描述了两位公司领导者以及ZHA公司的真实生活,使我们对Zaha有了更加近距离的感受;他同时以理性的方式阐述了自己如何看待Zaha在建筑设计中的努力和贡献,并延伸至对普利茨克奖以及中国城市的理解,值得玩味。 展开更多
关键词 建筑师 温韬 美术家 建筑创作 ZAHA HADID zha 北京
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A Reversed Construction between Deities and Demons:A Case Study of Ne Zha:I’m the Destiny 被引量:1
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作者 Hai Tang Yang You Mengchun Ma 《Journal of Educational Theory and Management》 2021年第1期50-55,共6页
In 2019,Ne Zha:I’m the Destiny won more than 5-billion-yuan box office in Chinese movie market.Although the box office is not the only criterion for judging the quality of an animated movie,Ne Zha breaks a certain st... In 2019,Ne Zha:I’m the Destiny won more than 5-billion-yuan box office in Chinese movie market.Although the box office is not the only criterion for judging the quality of an animated movie,Ne Zha breaks a certain stereotype in storytelling,technical means,and the setting of the positive and negative characters.This potentially indicates that in producing an animated film,Chinese artists start to pay more attention to how to refine a movie production,or how to make the story more interesting.One of the attractive elements of this movie is that,Ne Zha has made a breakthrough in creation of a character of Children’s hero,and is totally different from its previous versions:with his joy and sorrow,audiences see the characteristics of Ne Zha as a nice as well as an aggressive boy.This partially because in setting the role of Ne Zha,boundaries between the good and the evil or between beauty and ugly are not so clear in the animation,while it features that Chinese cartoons are set to focus more on authenticity rather than their instructive functions.Additionally,the change of the image of Ne Zha and the subversive characters re-created in the movie have metaphorical significances,featuring how“Chinese school”reconstructs the subjectivity of Chinese stories in contemporary world. 展开更多
关键词 Ne zha:I’m the Destiny Animation Chinese school Gods and demons Hero
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四腿八zha结构的简便划线法
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作者 张铁军 《林产工业》 北大核心 1989年第2期46-47,共2页
关键词 木制品加工 四腿八zha 划线法 结构
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Short Term Forecasting Performances of Classical VAR and Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR Models for Time Series with Collinear Variables and Correlated Error Terms
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作者 M. O. Adenomon V. A. Michael O. P. Evans 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2015年第7期742-753,共12页
Forecasts can either be short term, medium term or long term. In this work we considered short term forecast because of the problem of limited data or time series data that is often encounter in time series analysis. ... Forecasts can either be short term, medium term or long term. In this work we considered short term forecast because of the problem of limited data or time series data that is often encounter in time series analysis. This simulation study considered the performances of the classical VAR and Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR for short term series at different levels of collinearity and correlated error terms. The results from 10,000 iteration revealed that the BVAR models are excellent for time series length of T=8 for all levels of collinearity while the classical VAR is effective for time series length of T=16 for all collinearity levels except when ρ = -0.9 and ρ = -0.95. We therefore recommended that for effective short term forecasting, the time series length, forecasting horizon and the collinearity level should be considered. 展开更多
关键词 Short term Forecasting Vector Autoregressive (VAR) BAYESIAN VAR (BVAR) Sims-zha Prior COLLINEARITY Error Terms
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The Analysis of Color Narration of Animated Film Ne Zha
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作者 QIN Jian-bo 《Journal of Literature and Art Studies》 2021年第9期714-719,共6页
Color has an intuitive expression of the material world,and is often used by creators of animated films in the narrative process of the film to express a creator’s subjective feelings.Color narration is a special men... Color has an intuitive expression of the material world,and is often used by creators of animated films in the narrative process of the film to express a creator’s subjective feelings.Color narration is a special mental imagination activity.It mainly refers to human beings perceiving colors in the external environment,and judging by their own rich life experience,and finally achieving a comprehensive cognition of external things.The animated film Ne Zha has attracted the attention of the audience since its release.That is because the film uses color narration ingeniously to innovate traditional stories and familiar characters,it displays the story through shocking visual expression,so that the audience can feel the influence of traditional culture while understanding the story,reflecting the unique artistic charm of color narration.This paper analyzes three aspects of color narration in showing the binary oppositions of goodness and evil,portraying vivid characters,promoting the development of narration,and highlighting the tension of the film,and fully expounds the importance of color narration in animated films. 展开更多
关键词 animated film Ne zha color narration visual expressiveness character shaping
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A Simulation Study on the Performances of Classical Var and Sims-Zha Bayesian Var Models in the Presence of Autocorrelated Errors
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作者 M. O. Adenomon V. A. Michael O. P. Evans 《Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation》 2015年第4期146-158,共13页
It is well known that a high degree of positive dependency among the errors generally leads to 1) serious underestimation of standard errors for regression coefficients;2) prediction intervals that are excessively wid... It is well known that a high degree of positive dependency among the errors generally leads to 1) serious underestimation of standard errors for regression coefficients;2) prediction intervals that are excessively wide. This paper set out to study the performances of classical VAR and Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR models in the presence of autocorrelated errors. Autocorrelation levels of (-0.99, -0.95, -0.9, -0.85, -0.8, 0.8, 0.85, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99) were considered for short term (T = 8, 16);medium term (T = 32, 64) and long term (T = 128, 256). The results from 10,000 simulation revealed that BVAR model with loose prior is suitable for negative autocorrelations and BVAR model with tight prior is suitable for positive autocorrelations in the short term. While for medium term, the BVAR model with loose prior is suitable for the autocorrelation levels considered except in few cases. Lastly, for long term, the classical VAR is suitable for all the autocorrelation levels considered except in some cases where the BVAR models are preferred. This work therefore concludes that the performance of the classical VAR and Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR varies in terms of the autocorrelation levels and the time series lengths. 展开更多
关键词 Simulation PERFORMANCES Vector Autoregression (VAR) CLASSICAL VAR Sims-zha Prior BAYESIAN VAR (BVAR) Autocorrelated Errors
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On the Performances of Classical VAR and Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR Models in the Presence of Collinearity and Autocorrelated Error Terms
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作者 M. O. Adenomon V. A. Michael O. P. Evans 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2016年第1期96-132,共37页
In time series literature, many authors have found out that multicollinearity and autocorrelation usually afflict time series data. In this paper, we compare the performances of classical VAR and Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR... In time series literature, many authors have found out that multicollinearity and autocorrelation usually afflict time series data. In this paper, we compare the performances of classical VAR and Sims-Zha Bayesian VAR models with quadratic decay on bivariate time series data jointly influenced by collinearity and autocorrelation. We simulate bivariate time series data for different collinearity levels (﹣0.99, ﹣0.95, ﹣0.9, ﹣0.85, ﹣0.8, 0.8, 0.85, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99) and autocorrelation levels (﹣0.99, ﹣0.95, ﹣0.9, ﹣0.85, ﹣0.8, 0.8, 0.85, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99) for time series length of 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256 respectively. The results from 10,000 simulations reveal that the models performance varies with the collinearity and autocorrelation levels, and with the time series lengths. In addition, the results reveal that the BVAR4 model is a viable model for forecasting. Therefore, we recommend that the levels of collinearity and autocorrelation, and the time series length should be considered in using an appropriate model for forecasting. 展开更多
关键词 Vector Autoregression (VAR) Classical VAR Bayesian VAR (BVAR) Sims-zha Prior COLLINEARITY Autocorrelation
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ZHA北京办公室
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作者 大桥.谕 《建筑创作》 2017年第1期277-280,共4页
扎哈从伊斯坦布尔给我打来电话,说,"寿司(那是我的外号),你想去中国吗?"她为身边亲近的人都取了外号。我说,"当然,为什么不呢?"当时,工作室与客户双方都需要有相关经验的人来为银河SOHO项目组建并领导团队。我认为扎哈当时想找... 扎哈从伊斯坦布尔给我打来电话,说,"寿司(那是我的外号),你想去中国吗?"她为身边亲近的人都取了外号。我说,"当然,为什么不呢?"当时,工作室与客户双方都需要有相关经验的人来为银河SOHO项目组建并领导团队。我认为扎哈当时想找一个她了解并且信任的人。在那之前,我成立了东京办事处,积累到一些经验。对我自己而言,这是个简单的决定。 展开更多
关键词 扎哈 zha 领导团队 我自己 SOHO THINK SOMEONE communicate everything SPEAKING
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南康荷包“zha”
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作者 林传和 《上海食品》 1989年第5期18-18,共1页
关键词 烹饪 菜谱 荷包“zha 江西菜
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古代的Zha类食品(上)
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作者 张丽红 《湖南食品》 1999年第1期38-39,共2页
关键词 zha类食品 腌制 发酵
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赣南“腊Zha”分外香
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作者 林传和 《烹调知识》 1993年第12期18-19,共2页
关键词 zha菜肴 菜谱 制作
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ZHA危险性分析法在仪表安全联锁系统的应用
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作者 韩咏梅 《世界仪表与自动化》 2004年第12期46-48,共3页
现在生产安全日益受到重视。据查,有以下一些方法可帮助人们事先发现事故原因和潜在危险,正确评估风险,提前防范或避免重蹈覆辙:
关键词 zha危险性分析法 仪表安全联锁系统 生产安全 危险事件
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Review of Ne Zha 2
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作者 余红 《初中生必读》 2025年第5期39-40,共2页
Ne Zha 2 (The Demon Child Conquers the Sea) directed by Jiao Zi,is a sequel~(1) to the 2019 fantasy adventure film Ne Zha (Birth of the Demon Child).Set after the thunder disaster,it follows Ne Zha and Ao Bing as they... Ne Zha 2 (The Demon Child Conquers the Sea) directed by Jiao Zi,is a sequel~(1) to the 2019 fantasy adventure film Ne Zha (Birth of the Demon Child).Set after the thunder disaster,it follows Ne Zha and Ao Bing as they strive~(2) to return to the human world.With stunning~(3) visual effects and deep themes,the film appeals to audience once again. 展开更多
关键词 Ne zha SEQUEL ao bing visual effects fantasy adventure ne zha
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Nezha: From Myth to Cultural Icon
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作者 Sun Jiahui 《The World of Chinese》 2025年第1期72-75,共4页
Nezha transcended his origins as a Buddhist deity to emerge as a rebellious,anti-patriarchal hero in popular culture从印度护法到中式魔童,哪吒如何成为一代人的反叛偶像?Soon after its release on Chinese New Year's Da... Nezha transcended his origins as a Buddhist deity to emerge as a rebellious,anti-patriarchal hero in popular culture从印度护法到中式魔童,哪吒如何成为一代人的反叛偶像?Soon after its release on Chinese New Year's Day,the animated film Ne Zha 2 became a sensation,adored by both critics and audiences.It has grossed over 14 billion yuan(more than 2 billion US dollars)as of writing,surpassing Inside Out 2 as the all-time highestgrossing animated film in the world. 展开更多
关键词 animated film critical acclaim buddhist deity ne zha INSIDE cultural icon Nezha Chinese New Year
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Never Give Up,Like Ne Zha!
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作者 江明玥 张丽颖(指导) 《英语角》 2025年第15期48-49,共2页
"If there is no path ahead,I will make one.If the world shuts me out,I will change it."The movie Ne Zha 2 made me feel excited and think deeply about life.Who Am I?Ne Zha saved the world before,but he still ... "If there is no path ahead,I will make one.If the world shuts me out,I will change it."The movie Ne Zha 2 made me feel excited and think deeply about life.Who Am I?Ne Zha saved the world before,but he still feels lost(迷失的). 展开更多
关键词 never give up excited make one LOST change who am i ne zha deeply think life
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