Daredevil·Gladiator·Cherry Red·Whirlwind·Flash·Grit·Spider Grass·MercuryWith less to lose,we take a risk,creating challenges and pushingourselves in ways we only fantasized about whi...Daredevil·Gladiator·Cherry Red·Whirlwind·Flash·Grit·Spider Grass·MercuryWith less to lose,we take a risk,creating challenges and pushingourselves in ways we only fantasized about while living in the safezone.Self-tested,defying limits,we feel invigorated.Each stepwe take towards our wildest dreams brings us one step closer tothe edge.This dynamic palette merges bold and muted tones.Itschameleon nature applies from active to formal wear.展开更多
Inquisitor Making sense of the static around us,digging deeper permeates every aspect of our lives.Scrutinizing instead of assuming,we are inspired to self-educate which infiltrates everything from our consumer decisi...Inquisitor Making sense of the static around us,digging deeper permeates every aspect of our lives.Scrutinizing instead of assuming,we are inspired to self-educate which infiltrates everything from our consumer decisions to global perspectives.Self-identification through brands or political movements loses steam as perspective is gained through more unbiased or raw outlets.展开更多
Dear Editor,Epilepsy is a significant health challenge affecting children and adolescents,influencing their cognitive and psychological well-being.Effective care during childhood is crucial as individuals with epileps...Dear Editor,Epilepsy is a significant health challenge affecting children and adolescents,influencing their cognitive and psychological well-being.Effective care during childhood is crucial as individuals with epilepsy may face long-term cognitive decline and psychological issues that impact their quality of life and social outcomes in adulthood(Symonds et al.,2019).展开更多
The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has ...The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.展开更多
In this paper, the monthly rainfall statistical data of Nanning City, Capital of </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, from 2006 to 2018, were col<...In this paper, the monthly rainfall statistical data of Nanning City, Capital of </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, from 2006 to 2018, were col</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">lected. On the basis of qualitative analysis of the rainfall seasonal changing law, the non-linear seasonal rainfall forecast model on Nanning City with the method of Trend Comparison Ratio (TCR) was established by the statistical analysis </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">software Office Excel 2013. The model was used to predict the rainfall in</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> spring, summer, autumn and winter in Nanning in 2019. The results were: 286.41 mm, 695.79 mm, 292.20 mm and 118.11</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mm, respectively. It was also found that the predicted results were consistent with the seasonal distribution cha</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">racteristics, annual distribution characteristics and the trend of historica</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">l </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">rainfall time series fluctuation, through the qualitative analysis of figures.</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Compared with the actual measured rainfall data of Nanning City in 2019 in the China Statistical Yearbook (2020), the predicted values are </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">basically </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">consistent with the measured values.展开更多
[目的]分析1972—2021年江苏省启东市育龄妇女(15~49岁)恶性肿瘤死亡率的长期变化趋势,并预测其后10年死亡率水平。[方法]基于启东市1972—2021年连续肿瘤登记数据,提取15~49岁户籍女性恶性肿瘤死亡病例,计算粗死亡率(crude mortality r...[目的]分析1972—2021年江苏省启东市育龄妇女(15~49岁)恶性肿瘤死亡率的长期变化趋势,并预测其后10年死亡率水平。[方法]基于启东市1972—2021年连续肿瘤登记数据,提取15~49岁户籍女性恶性肿瘤死亡病例,计算粗死亡率(crude mortality rate,CMR)、中国人口标化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population,ASMRC)、世界人口标化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rate by world standard population,ASMRW),采用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件计算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC),分析死亡率时间趋势变化;通过SAS 9.2软件构建ARIMA模型,预测2022—2031年育龄妇女恶性肿瘤粗死亡率。[结果]1972—2021年启东市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤累计死亡6371例,50年间CMR从1972—1976年的38.89/10万降至2017—2021年的26.75/10万,趋势变化无统计学意义(AAPC=-0.04%,P=0.844);ASMRC从45.81/10万降至19.89/10万(AAPC=-1.56%,P<0.001),ASMRW从43.94/10万降至19.51/10万(AAPC=-1.48%,P<0.001),呈现显著下降趋势。年龄别死亡率随年龄增长呈显著上升趋势,15~19岁组最低(5.84/10万),45~49岁组最高(112.51/10万);除15~19岁年龄组死亡率无明显趋势变化外(AAPC=-0.99%,P=0.299),其余年龄组均存在显著下降趋势(P均<0.05)。1972—2021年启东市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤死亡顺位前10位依次为肝癌、胃癌、乳腺癌、肺癌、白血病、结直肠癌、脑及中枢神经系统肿瘤、淋巴瘤、宫颈癌和胰腺癌,占总恶性肿瘤死亡的89.81%;其中肝癌、胃癌和结直肠癌的ASMRW呈现明显下降趋势(AAPC分别为-3.14%、-1.64%和-1.88%,P均<0.05);而宫颈癌的ASMRW呈现明显上升趋势(AAPC=3.41%,P=0.001)。预测结果显示,2026年启东市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤CMR将降至21.07/10万,2031年进一步降至19.69/10万。[结论]50年来启东市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤标化死亡率显著下降,反映区域癌症防控成效,但粗死亡率无明显变化,且宫颈癌死亡率上升趋势突出,需重点关注;未来10年死亡率将持续降低,仍需针对重点恶性肿瘤(如宫颈癌)和高危年龄组强化早筛早治与健康干预。展开更多
Fashion color forecasting is one of the most important factors for fashion marketing and manufacturing. Several models have been applied by previous researchers to conduct fashion color forecasting. However, few convi...Fashion color forecasting is one of the most important factors for fashion marketing and manufacturing. Several models have been applied by previous researchers to conduct fashion color forecasting. However, few convincing forecasting systems have been established. A prediction model for fashion color forecasting was established by applying an improved back propagation neural network (BPNN) model in this paper. Successive six-year fashion color palettes, released by INTERCOLOR, were used as learning information for the neural network to develop a reliable prediction model. Colors in the palettes were quantified by PANTONE color system. Additionally, performance of the established model was compared with other GM(1, 1) models. Results show that the improved BPNN model is suitable to predict future fashion color trend.展开更多
With the continuous development of machine learning and the increasing complexity of financial data analysis,it is more popular to use models in the field of machine learning to solve the hot and difficult problems in...With the continuous development of machine learning and the increasing complexity of financial data analysis,it is more popular to use models in the field of machine learning to solve the hot and difficult problems in the financial industry.To improve the effectiveness of stock trend prediction and solve the problems in time series data processing,this paper combines the fuzzy affiliation function with stock-related technical indicators to obtain nominal data that can widely reflect the constituent stocks in the case of time series changes by analysing the S&P 500 index.Meanwhile,in order to optimise the current machine learning algorithm in which the setting and adjustment of hyperparameters rely too much on empirical knowledge,this paper combines the deep forest model to train the stock data separately.The experimental results show that(1)the accuracy of the extreme random forest and the accuracy of the multi-grain cascade forest are both higher than that of the gated recurrent unit(GRU)model when the un-fuzzy index-adjusted dataset is used as features for input,(2)the accuracy of the extreme random forest and the accuracy of the multigranular cascade forest are improved by using the fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for input,(3)the accuracy of the fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for inputting the extreme random forest is improved by 18.89% compared to that of the un-fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for inputting the extreme random forest and(4)the average accuracy of the fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for inputting multi-grain cascade forest increased by 5.67%.展开更多
In this paper electric load is forecast for the classified power consumers of Shanghai urban area for the scheduled years in short term and in long term respectively. The monthly load in 1999 is forecast on the basis ...In this paper electric load is forecast for the classified power consumers of Shanghai urban area for the scheduled years in short term and in long term respectively. The monthly load in 1999 is forecast on the basis of the data during 1992～1998, and the approximate load in 2010 is forecast on the basis of the data during 1990～1998.展开更多
Runoff and its evolution, based on hydrometeorological data from surface measurement stations, are analyzed for the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag. Some mathematical statistical models, for example, P...Runoff and its evolution, based on hydrometeorological data from surface measurement stations, are analyzed for the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag. Some mathematical statistical models, for example, Period Extrapolation-Gradual Regression Model, Grey Topology Forecast Model and Box-Jinkins Model, are applied in predicting changing trends on the runoff. The analysis indicates that the runoff volume in the upper Yellow River above Tangnag is ending a period of extended minimum flows. Increasing runoff is expected in the coming years.展开更多
This paper describes an application of combined model of extrapolation and correlation techniques for short term load forecasting of an Indian substation. Here effort has been given to improvise the accuracy of elec-t...This paper describes an application of combined model of extrapolation and correlation techniques for short term load forecasting of an Indian substation. Here effort has been given to improvise the accuracy of elec-trical load forecasting considering the factors, past data of the load, respective weather condition and finan-cial growth of the people. These factors are derived by curve fitting technique. Then simulation has been conducted using MATLAB tools. Here it has been suggested that consideration of 20 years data for a devel-oping country should be ignored as the development of a country is highly unpredictable. However, the im-portance of the past data should not be ignored. Here, just previous five years data are used to determine the above factors.展开更多
Assessment of the current status of Lake Baikal proved to be based on changes in natural (“preindustrial”) chemical content in basic abiotic and biological compartments of the Lake geosystem. This approach was used ...Assessment of the current status of Lake Baikal proved to be based on changes in natural (“preindustrial”) chemical content in basic abiotic and biological compartments of the Lake geosystem. This approach was used to evaluate background “base-line levels” of 6 major and about 50 minor and trace ele-ments in the Lake Baikal water body using a number of most reliable data re-ported within 1992-2012. In terms of environment geochemistry Baikal is one of the purest water reservoirs on the Earth. A simple mass balance model was proposed for assessing possible anthropogenic impact on Baikal water geo-chemistry. Estimations of change trends showed that only for Na+, SO42-, Cl- and Mo growth rate of their average concentrations in the Lake occurred to be 1%, 3%, 7% and 2% in every 10 years. Space-time monitoring schedules for all water body compartments of the Lake are proposed as well as similar moni-toring programs for tributaries, precipitations, bottom sediments, aquatic biota.展开更多
文摘Daredevil·Gladiator·Cherry Red·Whirlwind·Flash·Grit·Spider Grass·MercuryWith less to lose,we take a risk,creating challenges and pushingourselves in ways we only fantasized about while living in the safezone.Self-tested,defying limits,we feel invigorated.Each stepwe take towards our wildest dreams brings us one step closer tothe edge.This dynamic palette merges bold and muted tones.Itschameleon nature applies from active to formal wear.
文摘Inquisitor Making sense of the static around us,digging deeper permeates every aspect of our lives.Scrutinizing instead of assuming,we are inspired to self-educate which infiltrates everything from our consumer decisions to global perspectives.Self-identification through brands or political movements loses steam as perspective is gained through more unbiased or raw outlets.
文摘Dear Editor,Epilepsy is a significant health challenge affecting children and adolescents,influencing their cognitive and psychological well-being.Effective care during childhood is crucial as individuals with epilepsy may face long-term cognitive decline and psychological issues that impact their quality of life and social outcomes in adulthood(Symonds et al.,2019).
文摘The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.
文摘In this paper, the monthly rainfall statistical data of Nanning City, Capital of </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China, from 2006 to 2018, were col</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">lected. On the basis of qualitative analysis of the rainfall seasonal changing law, the non-linear seasonal rainfall forecast model on Nanning City with the method of Trend Comparison Ratio (TCR) was established by the statistical analysis </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">software Office Excel 2013. The model was used to predict the rainfall in</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> spring, summer, autumn and winter in Nanning in 2019. The results were: 286.41 mm, 695.79 mm, 292.20 mm and 118.11</span></span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">mm, respectively. It was also found that the predicted results were consistent with the seasonal distribution cha</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">racteristics, annual distribution characteristics and the trend of historica</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">l </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">rainfall time series fluctuation, through the qualitative analysis of figures.</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Compared with the actual measured rainfall data of Nanning City in 2019 in the China Statistical Yearbook (2020), the predicted values are </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">basically </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">consistent with the measured values.
文摘[目的]分析1972—2021年江苏省启东市育龄妇女(15~49岁)恶性肿瘤死亡率的长期变化趋势,并预测其后10年死亡率水平。[方法]基于启东市1972—2021年连续肿瘤登记数据,提取15~49岁户籍女性恶性肿瘤死亡病例,计算粗死亡率(crude mortality rate,CMR)、中国人口标化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population,ASMRC)、世界人口标化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rate by world standard population,ASMRW),采用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件计算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC),分析死亡率时间趋势变化;通过SAS 9.2软件构建ARIMA模型,预测2022—2031年育龄妇女恶性肿瘤粗死亡率。[结果]1972—2021年启东市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤累计死亡6371例,50年间CMR从1972—1976年的38.89/10万降至2017—2021年的26.75/10万,趋势变化无统计学意义(AAPC=-0.04%,P=0.844);ASMRC从45.81/10万降至19.89/10万(AAPC=-1.56%,P<0.001),ASMRW从43.94/10万降至19.51/10万(AAPC=-1.48%,P<0.001),呈现显著下降趋势。年龄别死亡率随年龄增长呈显著上升趋势,15~19岁组最低(5.84/10万),45~49岁组最高(112.51/10万);除15~19岁年龄组死亡率无明显趋势变化外(AAPC=-0.99%,P=0.299),其余年龄组均存在显著下降趋势(P均<0.05)。1972—2021年启东市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤死亡顺位前10位依次为肝癌、胃癌、乳腺癌、肺癌、白血病、结直肠癌、脑及中枢神经系统肿瘤、淋巴瘤、宫颈癌和胰腺癌,占总恶性肿瘤死亡的89.81%;其中肝癌、胃癌和结直肠癌的ASMRW呈现明显下降趋势(AAPC分别为-3.14%、-1.64%和-1.88%,P均<0.05);而宫颈癌的ASMRW呈现明显上升趋势(AAPC=3.41%,P=0.001)。预测结果显示,2026年启东市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤CMR将降至21.07/10万,2031年进一步降至19.69/10万。[结论]50年来启东市育龄妇女恶性肿瘤标化死亡率显著下降,反映区域癌症防控成效,但粗死亡率无明显变化,且宫颈癌死亡率上升趋势突出,需重点关注;未来10年死亡率将持续降低,仍需针对重点恶性肿瘤(如宫颈癌)和高危年龄组强化早筛早治与健康干预。
文摘Fashion color forecasting is one of the most important factors for fashion marketing and manufacturing. Several models have been applied by previous researchers to conduct fashion color forecasting. However, few convincing forecasting systems have been established. A prediction model for fashion color forecasting was established by applying an improved back propagation neural network (BPNN) model in this paper. Successive six-year fashion color palettes, released by INTERCOLOR, were used as learning information for the neural network to develop a reliable prediction model. Colors in the palettes were quantified by PANTONE color system. Additionally, performance of the established model was compared with other GM(1, 1) models. Results show that the improved BPNN model is suitable to predict future fashion color trend.
基金Fundamental Research Foundation for Universities of Heilongjiang Province,Grant/Award Number:LGYC2018JQ003。
文摘With the continuous development of machine learning and the increasing complexity of financial data analysis,it is more popular to use models in the field of machine learning to solve the hot and difficult problems in the financial industry.To improve the effectiveness of stock trend prediction and solve the problems in time series data processing,this paper combines the fuzzy affiliation function with stock-related technical indicators to obtain nominal data that can widely reflect the constituent stocks in the case of time series changes by analysing the S&P 500 index.Meanwhile,in order to optimise the current machine learning algorithm in which the setting and adjustment of hyperparameters rely too much on empirical knowledge,this paper combines the deep forest model to train the stock data separately.The experimental results show that(1)the accuracy of the extreme random forest and the accuracy of the multi-grain cascade forest are both higher than that of the gated recurrent unit(GRU)model when the un-fuzzy index-adjusted dataset is used as features for input,(2)the accuracy of the extreme random forest and the accuracy of the multigranular cascade forest are improved by using the fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for input,(3)the accuracy of the fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for inputting the extreme random forest is improved by 18.89% compared to that of the un-fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for inputting the extreme random forest and(4)the average accuracy of the fuzzy index-adjusted dataset as features for inputting multi-grain cascade forest increased by 5.67%.
文摘In this paper electric load is forecast for the classified power consumers of Shanghai urban area for the scheduled years in short term and in long term respectively. The monthly load in 1999 is forecast on the basis of the data during 1992～1998, and the approximate load in 2010 is forecast on the basis of the data during 1990～1998.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 49731030 Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, No. 210016
文摘Runoff and its evolution, based on hydrometeorological data from surface measurement stations, are analyzed for the upper reaches of the Yellow River above Tangnag. Some mathematical statistical models, for example, Period Extrapolation-Gradual Regression Model, Grey Topology Forecast Model and Box-Jinkins Model, are applied in predicting changing trends on the runoff. The analysis indicates that the runoff volume in the upper Yellow River above Tangnag is ending a period of extended minimum flows. Increasing runoff is expected in the coming years.
文摘This paper describes an application of combined model of extrapolation and correlation techniques for short term load forecasting of an Indian substation. Here effort has been given to improvise the accuracy of elec-trical load forecasting considering the factors, past data of the load, respective weather condition and finan-cial growth of the people. These factors are derived by curve fitting technique. Then simulation has been conducted using MATLAB tools. Here it has been suggested that consideration of 20 years data for a devel-oping country should be ignored as the development of a country is highly unpredictable. However, the im-portance of the past data should not be ignored. Here, just previous five years data are used to determine the above factors.
文摘Assessment of the current status of Lake Baikal proved to be based on changes in natural (“preindustrial”) chemical content in basic abiotic and biological compartments of the Lake geosystem. This approach was used to evaluate background “base-line levels” of 6 major and about 50 minor and trace ele-ments in the Lake Baikal water body using a number of most reliable data re-ported within 1992-2012. In terms of environment geochemistry Baikal is one of the purest water reservoirs on the Earth. A simple mass balance model was proposed for assessing possible anthropogenic impact on Baikal water geo-chemistry. Estimations of change trends showed that only for Na+, SO42-, Cl- and Mo growth rate of their average concentrations in the Lake occurred to be 1%, 3%, 7% and 2% in every 10 years. Space-time monitoring schedules for all water body compartments of the Lake are proposed as well as similar moni-toring programs for tributaries, precipitations, bottom sediments, aquatic biota.
