This study traces the development of the Shanghai Typhoon Model(SHTM)from a traditional physics-based regional model toward a data-driven,machine-learning typhoon forecasting system.After upgrading its initial and bou...This study traces the development of the Shanghai Typhoon Model(SHTM)from a traditional physics-based regional model toward a data-driven,machine-learning typhoon forecasting system.After upgrading its initial and boundary conditions,SHTM now leverages large-scale constraints from machine-learning weather prediction(MLWP)models,resulting in an ML–physics hybrid framework.During Typhoon Danas(2025),the hybrid SHTM achieves substantially lower track errors than both the advanced ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System(IFS)and leading MLWP models such as PanGu and FuXi.Furthermore,the hybrid SHTM consistently maintains mean track errors below 200 km up to a forecast lead time of 108 hours,representing a significant advancement in forecast accuracy.In addition,this study highlights the technical roadmap for transitioning from a physics-based typhoon model to a fully data-driven ML typhoon forecast system.It also emphasizes that advances in the physical modeling framework provide a critical foundation for further improving the performance of future data-driven ML typhoon models.展开更多
Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hotspots in disaster research. However, up until now, urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes. This p...Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hotspots in disaster research. However, up until now, urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes. This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research, which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China. As an example, we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing＇an District of Shanghai. Based on the basic concept of disaster risk, this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods. Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure, we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments. A grid-based Geographical Information System （GIS） approach, including an urban terrain model, an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model, was applied to simulate inundation area and depth. Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys, which were further applied to analyse vulnerability, exposure and loss assessment. Finally, the exceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities. A framework was also developed for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss. This is a new exploration for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.展开更多
With the explosive growth of knowledge and the further improvement of economic globalization, technology gradually represents its greater significance as the core factor of the strategic resources and competence for n...With the explosive growth of knowledge and the further improvement of economic globalization, technology gradually represents its greater significance as the core factor of the strategic resources and competence for national and regional development, which becomes a greater support to the construction of the innovative country and also a key to take the initiative to develop. Under this tendency, technological improvements should play a more important role in pushing the economy forwards, which brings higher requirements for technical development in Shanghai. Thus Shanghai must integrate and utilize the resources of new technology in a more comprehensive way. During the process of building up a well-off society as well as innovative regions in an all-around way, the demand for technological innovation is continuously increasing and its content, as to Shanghai, is undergoing further fulfillment. The study on the inner connection between Shanghai technological development and economic growth, thus under such background, means much to get a knowledge about the dynamic equilibrium relationship between technical progress and economic growth, which can be taken as an important reference for the government to draw up the plan for future technological development.展开更多
[目的]分析2002—2022年上海市浦东新区居民胰腺癌死亡趋势及寿命损失情况,探讨年龄-时期-队列效应对死亡风险的影响。[方法]通过上海市人口死因登记系统收集2002—2022年浦东新区居民胰腺癌死亡资料。运用Excel 2010计算粗死亡率、标...[目的]分析2002—2022年上海市浦东新区居民胰腺癌死亡趋势及寿命损失情况,探讨年龄-时期-队列效应对死亡风险的影响。[方法]通过上海市人口死因登记系统收集2002—2022年浦东新区居民胰腺癌死亡资料。运用Excel 2010计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率、潜在减寿年数(potential years of life lost,PYLL)、潜在减寿率(potential years of life lost rate,PYLLR)和平均减寿年数(average years of life lost,AYLL);运用Joinpoint回归计算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC),分析评估胰腺癌死亡率的变化趋势;采用R 4.4.1拟合年龄-时期-队列模型,分析胰腺癌死亡风险的年龄、时期及队列效应。[结果]2002—2022年浦东新区居民胰腺癌粗死亡率从10.42/10万升至18.73/10万,呈显著上升趋势(AAPC=2.90%,P<0.001);标化死亡率整体平稳(AAPC=-0.05%,P=0.775)。男性粗死亡率(17.09/10万)高于女性(13.75/10万),均呈上升趋势(AAPC分别为3.05%和2.75%,P均<0.001)。40岁后,无论男性或女性,胰腺癌死亡率均随年龄的增长而显著上升。PYLL为31347人年,呈上升趋势(AAPC=1.83%,P<0.001),AYLL为3.59年,呈下降趋势(AAPC=-2.45%,P<0.001)。年龄效应显示,年龄增长增加胰腺癌死亡风险;时期效应显示,2002—2016年胰腺癌死亡风险下降,随后上升;队列效应显示,随出生队列推移,死亡风险上升。[结论]2002—2022年上海市浦东新区胰腺癌死亡率呈上升趋势,男性死亡率高于女性。胰腺癌死亡风险随年龄增长而上升,越晚出生的居民死亡风险越高。需针对男性、老年群体加强早期筛查,结合队列效应特征关注环境与生活方式风险因素,优化全人群防控策略。展开更多
基金supported by the Special Project-Original Exploration(Grant No.42450163)the National Youth Science Foundation of China Project(Grant No.4240050560)the Research and Development of Key Technologies for Artificial Intelligence Regional Typhoon Forecasting Model project.
文摘This study traces the development of the Shanghai Typhoon Model(SHTM)from a traditional physics-based regional model toward a data-driven,machine-learning typhoon forecasting system.After upgrading its initial and boundary conditions,SHTM now leverages large-scale constraints from machine-learning weather prediction(MLWP)models,resulting in an ML–physics hybrid framework.During Typhoon Danas(2025),the hybrid SHTM achieves substantially lower track errors than both the advanced ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System(IFS)and leading MLWP models such as PanGu and FuXi.Furthermore,the hybrid SHTM consistently maintains mean track errors below 200 km up to a forecast lead time of 108 hours,representing a significant advancement in forecast accuracy.In addition,this study highlights the technical roadmap for transitioning from a physics-based typhoon model to a fully data-driven ML typhoon forecast system.It also emphasizes that advances in the physical modeling framework provide a critical foundation for further improving the performance of future data-driven ML typhoon models.
基金National Nature Science Foundation of China, No.41071324 No.40730526+2 种基金 Key Subject Developing Project by Shanghai Municipal Education Commission, No.J50402 Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality, No.08240514000 Leading Academic Discipline Project of Shanghai Normal University, No.DZL809
文摘Scenario modelling and the risk assessment of natural disasters is one of the hotspots in disaster research. However, up until now, urban natural disaster risk assessments lack common procedures and programmes. This paper selects rainstorm waterlogging as a disaster to research, which is one of the most frequently occurring hazards for most cities in China. As an example, we used a small-scale integrated methodology to assess risks relating to rainstorm waterlogging hazards in the Jing＇an District of Shanghai. Based on the basic concept of disaster risk, this paper applies scenario modelling to express the risk of small-scale urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters in different return periods. Through this analysis of vulnerability and exposure, we simulate different disaster scenarios and propose a comprehensive analysis method and procedure for small-scale urban storm waterlogging disaster risk assessments. A grid-based Geographical Information System （GIS） approach, including an urban terrain model, an urban rainfall model and an urban drainage model, was applied to simulate inundation area and depth. Stage-damage curves for residential buildings and contents were then generated by the loss data of waterlogging from field surveys, which were further applied to analyse vulnerability, exposure and loss assessment. Finally, the exceedance probability curve for disaster damage was constructed using the damage of each simulated event and the respective exceedance probabilities. A framework was also developed for coupling the waterlogging risk with the risk planning and management through the exceedance probability curve and annual average waterlogging loss. This is a new exploration for small-scale urban natural disaster scenario simulation and risk assessment.
文摘With the explosive growth of knowledge and the further improvement of economic globalization, technology gradually represents its greater significance as the core factor of the strategic resources and competence for national and regional development, which becomes a greater support to the construction of the innovative country and also a key to take the initiative to develop. Under this tendency, technological improvements should play a more important role in pushing the economy forwards, which brings higher requirements for technical development in Shanghai. Thus Shanghai must integrate and utilize the resources of new technology in a more comprehensive way. During the process of building up a well-off society as well as innovative regions in an all-around way, the demand for technological innovation is continuously increasing and its content, as to Shanghai, is undergoing further fulfillment. The study on the inner connection between Shanghai technological development and economic growth, thus under such background, means much to get a knowledge about the dynamic equilibrium relationship between technical progress and economic growth, which can be taken as an important reference for the government to draw up the plan for future technological development.
文摘[目的]分析2002—2022年上海市浦东新区居民胰腺癌死亡趋势及寿命损失情况,探讨年龄-时期-队列效应对死亡风险的影响。[方法]通过上海市人口死因登记系统收集2002—2022年浦东新区居民胰腺癌死亡资料。运用Excel 2010计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率、潜在减寿年数(potential years of life lost,PYLL)、潜在减寿率(potential years of life lost rate,PYLLR)和平均减寿年数(average years of life lost,AYLL);运用Joinpoint回归计算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC),分析评估胰腺癌死亡率的变化趋势;采用R 4.4.1拟合年龄-时期-队列模型,分析胰腺癌死亡风险的年龄、时期及队列效应。[结果]2002—2022年浦东新区居民胰腺癌粗死亡率从10.42/10万升至18.73/10万,呈显著上升趋势(AAPC=2.90%,P<0.001);标化死亡率整体平稳(AAPC=-0.05%,P=0.775)。男性粗死亡率(17.09/10万)高于女性(13.75/10万),均呈上升趋势(AAPC分别为3.05%和2.75%,P均<0.001)。40岁后,无论男性或女性,胰腺癌死亡率均随年龄的增长而显著上升。PYLL为31347人年,呈上升趋势(AAPC=1.83%,P<0.001),AYLL为3.59年,呈下降趋势(AAPC=-2.45%,P<0.001)。年龄效应显示,年龄增长增加胰腺癌死亡风险;时期效应显示,2002—2016年胰腺癌死亡风险下降,随后上升;队列效应显示,随出生队列推移,死亡风险上升。[结论]2002—2022年上海市浦东新区胰腺癌死亡率呈上升趋势,男性死亡率高于女性。胰腺癌死亡风险随年龄增长而上升,越晚出生的居民死亡风险越高。需针对男性、老年群体加强早期筛查,结合队列效应特征关注环境与生活方式风险因素,优化全人群防控策略。
