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Dynamic Modeling of the Three-Dimensional Seated Human Body for High-Speed Train Ride Comfort Analysis
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作者 Hanwen Xu Xinbiao Xiao +4 位作者 Xiaoqing Dong Jian Han Peng Chen Qin Hu Xuesong Jin 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 2025年第5期478-507,共30页
Typically,seat or floor acceleration is used to evaluate the ride comfort of a high-speed train.However,the dynamic performance of the human body significantly differs from that of the floor.Therefore,using the car bo... Typically,seat or floor acceleration is used to evaluate the ride comfort of a high-speed train.However,the dynamic performance of the human body significantly differs from that of the floor.Therefore,using the car body floor and seat accelerations to calculate the ride comfort index of a high-speed train may not reflect the true feelings of passengers.In this study,a 3D human-seat-vehicle-track coupling model was established to investigate the ride comfort of highspeed train passengers.The seated human model,which considers the longitudinal,lateral,vertical,pitching,yawing,and rolling motions,comprises the head,upper torso,lower torso,pelvis,thighs,and shanks.The model parameters were determined using multi-axis excitation measurement data based on a genetic algorithm.Subsequently,the applicability of the small-angle assumption and natural modes of the human model is analyzed.Using the coupling system model,the vibration characteristics of the human-seat interaction surface were analyzed.The ride comfort of the high-speed train and human body dynamic performance were analyzed under normal conditions,track geometric irregularities and train meeting conditions.The results showed that the passenger seats in the front and rear rows adjacent to the window had a higher acceleration value than the others.The human backrest and seat pad connection points have higher vibration amplitudes than the car body floor in the human-sensitive frequency range,indicating that using the acceleration values on the floor may underestimate the discomfort of passengers.The ride comfort of high-speed trains diminishes in the presence of track geometric irregularities and when trains pass each other.When the excitation frequency of track geometry irregularities approached the natural frequency of the human-seat-vehicle system,ride comfort in high-speed trains decreased significantly.Moreover,using seat acceleration to evaluate passenger ride comfort overlooks the vibration characteristics of the human body.The transient aerodynamic force generated when the train meets can cause a larger car body roll and lateral motion at 2 Hz,which,in turn,decreases the passenger ride comfort.This study presents a detailed human-seat-vehicle-track coupling system that can reflect a passenger’s dynamic performance under complex operating conditions. 展开更多
关键词 seated human body High-speed train Ride comfort 3D Human body-seat-vehicle-track coupling coupled model
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Optimization of Biodynamic Seated Human Models Using Genetic Algorithms 被引量:5
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作者 Wael Abbas Ossama B. Abouelatta +2 位作者 Magdi El-Azab Mamdouh Elsaidy Adel A. Megahed 《Engineering(科研)》 2010年第9期710-719,共10页
Many biodynamic models have been derived using trial and error curve-fitting technique, such that the error between the computed and measured biodynamic response functions is minimum. This study developed a biomechani... Many biodynamic models have been derived using trial and error curve-fitting technique, such that the error between the computed and measured biodynamic response functions is minimum. This study developed a biomechanical model of the human body in a sitting posture without backrest for evaluating the vibration transmissibility and dynamic response to vertical vibration direction. In describing the human body motion, a three biomechanical models are discussed (two models are 4-DOF and one model 7-DOF). Optimization software based on stochastic techniques search methods, Genetic Algorithms (GAs), is employed to determine the human model parameters imposing some limit constraints on the model parameters. In addition, an objective function is formulated comprising the sum of errors between the computed and actual values (experimental data). The studied functions are the driving-point mechanical impedance, apparent mass and seat- to-head transmissibility functions. The optimization process increased the average goodness of fit and the results of studied functions became much closer to the target values (Experimental data). From the optimized model, the resonant frequencies of the driver parts computed on the basis of biodynamic response functions are found to be within close bounds to that expected for the human body. 展开更多
关键词 Biodynamic RESPONSE seated HUMAN MODELS Simulation GENETIC ALGORITHMS
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Geological and geomorphological features of deep-seated catastrophic landslides in tectonically active regions of Asia and implications for hazard mapping 被引量:1
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作者 Masahiro Chigira 《Episodes》 2014年第4期284-294,共11页
Deep-seated catastrophic landslides,particularly rock or debris avalanches,travel extremely rapidly for long distances,causing severe damage over wide areas.This paper summarizes the geological and geomorphological fe... Deep-seated catastrophic landslides,particularly rock or debris avalanches,travel extremely rapidly for long distances,causing severe damage over wide areas.This paper summarizes the geological and geomorphological features of such events,which were induced by earthquakes and rainstorms in Asia,and then uses these features to predict future potential sites of failures.Most of the rock avalanches are preceded by gravitational slope deformation with topographic features,in which small scarps along future head of landslide are the most representative;the scarps can be identified in topographic images made by highresolution airborne LiDAR DEMs and may suggest the instability just before catastrophic failure. 展开更多
关键词 rock debris avalanchestravel tectonically active regions geological geomorphological features geomorphological features gravitational slope deformation deep seated catastrophic landslides ASIA rock avalanches
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Deep- Seated Tectonic Activation of Tancheng-Lujiang Fault Zone and Its Control over Jiaodong Gold Concentrated Region, China
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作者 Cai Xinping Zhang Baolin Institute of Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 《Journal of Earth Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 1999年第1期55-57,共3页
A comprehensive discussion on the deep seated genesis of gold metallogenic materials and the tectono magmatic controls over gold deposits is given in this paper, which is based on the crustal and upper mantle struct... A comprehensive discussion on the deep seated genesis of gold metallogenic materials and the tectono magmatic controls over gold deposits is given in this paper, which is based on the crustal and upper mantle structural characteristics of the Jiaodong massif, the property, activation history and styles of the Tancheng Lujiang fault zone, as well as a series of accompanying tectono magmatic events. Prediction for further prospecting gold deposits in the area is also made. 展开更多
关键词 deep seated tectonic activation Tancheng Lujiang fault zone Jiaodong gold concentrated region.
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Registration of the Seated Condylar Position (SCP/CR): Part I: Rationale
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作者 Frank E. Cordray Vito Caponigro 《Open Journal of Stomatology》 2023年第9期271-291,共21页
The purpose of this paper is to present the rationale for registration of the Seated Condylar Position (SCP)/Centric Relation (CR) position of the condyles.
关键词 Dental Arch Displacement (DAD) Condylar Displacement (CD) seated Condylar Position (SCP) Maximum Intercuspation (MIC) Intercuspal Position (ICP) Musculo-Skeletal Dysfunction Temporo-Mandibular Dysfunction (TMD) Common Muscle Contraction Headache (CMCH)
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Registration of the Seated Condylar Position (SCP/CR): Part II: Technique: The Two-Piece Wax Bite Registration
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作者 Frank E. Cordray Vito Caponigro 《Open Journal of Stomatology》 2023年第9期292-308,共17页
The purpose of this paper is to present the technique for registration of the Seated Condylar Position (SCP)/Centric Relation (CR) position of the condyles: a two-piece wax bite registration with deprogramming and no ... The purpose of this paper is to present the technique for registration of the Seated Condylar Position (SCP)/Centric Relation (CR) position of the condyles: a two-piece wax bite registration with deprogramming and no mandibular manipulation. 展开更多
关键词 Dental Arch Displacement (DAD) Condylar Displacement (CD) seated Condylar Position (SCP) Maximum Intercuspation (MIC) Intercuspal Position (ICP) Musculo-Skeletal Dysfunction Temporo-Mandibular Dysfunction (TMD) Common Muscle Contraction Headache (CMCH)
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The Effect of Seated Baduanjin Exercise on Psychological State, Fatigue Symptoms, and Quality of Life in Maintenance Hemodialysis Patients
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作者 Jun Li Zhaohua Zou Xinjie Cheng 《Journal of Clinical and Nursing Research》 2024年第10期120-126,共7页
Objective:To evaluate the intervention effects of seated Baduanjin exercise on patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis(MHD).Methods:A total of 108 MHD patients admitted between July 2022 and July 2023 were select... Objective:To evaluate the intervention effects of seated Baduanjin exercise on patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis(MHD).Methods:A total of 108 MHD patients admitted between July 2022 and July 2023 were selected.They were randomly assigned into two groups:the experimental group,with 55 patients,who received seated Baduanjin exercise combined with leg exercises during dialysis;and the control group,with 53 patients,who only performed leg exercises during dialysis.The psychological state,fatigue symptoms,quality of life,and sleep quality scores were compared between the two groups,and exercise endurance was recorded.Results:After the intervention,the psychological state scores in the experimental group were lower than those in the control group,the fatigue symptom scores were lower,the quality of life scores were higher,the sleep quality scores were lower,and the exercise endurance was higher(P<0.05).Conclusion:Seated Baduanjin exercise can improve the negative psychological state and fatigue symptoms of MHD patients,enhance their quality of life and sleep quality,and effectively increase their exercise endurance. 展开更多
关键词 seated Baduanjin exercise Maintenance hemodialysis Psychological state Fatigue symptoms Quality of life
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Vertical vibration characteristics of seated human bodies and a biodynamic model with two degrees of freedom 被引量:4
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作者 GAO JiangHua HOU ZhiChao +1 位作者 HE Le XIA QunSheng 《Science China(Technological Sciences)》 SCIE EI CAS 2011年第10期2776-2784,共9页
Understanding the vibration characteristics of a seated human body is critical for evaluation and improvement of ride comfort of various passenger vehicles. There have been very little publications about the vibration... Understanding the vibration characteristics of a seated human body is critical for evaluation and improvement of ride comfort of various passenger vehicles. There have been very little publications about the vibration characteristics of a seated Chinese human body. By using wide-band white noise excitations and a homemade seat sensor, vertical vibration tests were carried out on 28 volunteers. Apparent masses were obtained for each volunteer at a frequency range of 1-20 Hz for various excitation le-vels. A biodynamic model, which has two degrees of freedom in parallel and includes a frame mass, was chosen to describe the vertical vibration characteristics of the seated human body. The model parameters were identified by means of a Gauss-Newton method with an error function defined in terms of both real and imaginary parts of the apparent mass against frequency. Based on the averaged data of the mass-normalized apparent mass from experiments, the model parameters and corresponding modal parameters were obtained for seated Chinese people at ages of 20-25 with standard weight. The apparent masses predicted by the biodynamic model with identified parameters agree very well with those obtained from experiments. Statistical analysis demonstrates the influence of volunteer’s height and weight on the model parameters for a seated human body. 展开更多
关键词 seated human body vertical vibration apparent mass biodynamic model
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Investigation and Application on the Vertical Vibration Models of the Seated Human Body
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作者 Xiong Shao Nan Xu Xiang Liu 《Automotive Innovation》 EI 2018年第3期263-271,共9页
Investigation of the vertical vibration characteristics of the seated human body is beneficial for the design and development of vehicle ride comfort.In this study,we first established models of the seated human body ... Investigation of the vertical vibration characteristics of the seated human body is beneficial for the design and development of vehicle ride comfort.In this study,we first established models of the seated human body with two,three and four degrees of freedom(DOF).Then,the vibration characteristics of 30 volunteers were tested under standard conditions with a vibration test rig to obtain data for the apparent mass,driving point mechanical impedance,and seat-to-head transfer function.Based on the experimental data,the parameters of these models are identified and the results show that the four-DOF model can simulate the vertical vibration characteristics of the seated human body more comprehensively.Then,different seated human body models were applied to optimize the damping of shock absorber.The results show that the optimized damping with the four-DOF Chinese seated human body model is 27%more than that with rigid mass and 7%less than that with ISO 5982:2001 seated human body model. 展开更多
关键词 seated human body model Apparent mass Driving point mechanical impedance Seat-to-head transfer function Optimization design of damping
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Effects of backrest density on lumbar load and comfort during seated work 被引量:1
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作者 HUANG Yan-di WANG Sheng +1 位作者 WANG Tong HE Li-hua 《Chinese Medical Journal》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2012年第19期3505-3508,共4页
Background Seated workplaces have greatly increased in China. Many researchers have found that seated work is a risk factor in the development of low-back pain. Backrest can reduce the load on the lower back by transm... Background Seated workplaces have greatly increased in China. Many researchers have found that seated work is a risk factor in the development of low-back pain. Backrest can reduce the load on the lower back by transmitting more of the weight from the upper body to the floor via the backrest so as to prevent low-back pain. To design a suitable chair backrest for seated office work, some backrest parameters must be optimized. In this study, the role of backrest density on lumbar load and comfort were investigated. The goal of the study was to help establish criteria with which backrests that alleviate and prevent low back pain during seated office work can be designed and selected. Methods Twenty volunteers (10 men and 10 women) were seated in three backrest conditions (10 kg/m^3, 25 kg/m^3, and 40 kg/m^3). Pressure data, including contact pressure (CP), peak contact pressure (PCP) and contact area were collected during 15-minute trial. Subjective data were collected after each pressure test. Results Backrest density had a significant effect on backrest pressure variables. CP and PCP increased with increasing backrest density. Contact area decreased with increased density. In terms of user preference, the backrest with low density was most highly rated. Conclusions Backrest density plays an important role in lumbar load and comfort during seated work. During designing and selecting backrests, backrest density should be focused on so as to alleviate and prevent low-back pain during seated office work. Backrest density at 10 kg/m^3 got the lowest CP and PCP and largest contact area. Backrest with low density can reduce lumbar pressure and increase support contact area, which could raise comfort feeling. Backrest density at 10 kg/m^3 is better to maintain a balance between providing effective support and alleviating excess lordosis. 展开更多
关键词 low-back pain SEATING backrest pressure COMFORT
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Melioidosis in kidney transplant recipients:A report of two cases
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作者 Chilaka Rajesh Jessica Vaddeswarapu +8 位作者 Utkarash Mishra Jeethu Joseph Eapen Athul Thomas Elenjickal Elias John Anna T Valson Suceena Alexander Vinoi George David Joy Sarojini Michael Santosh Varughese 《Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine》 2025年第4期181-184,共4页
Rationale:Melioidosis is a serious opportunistic infection caused by Burkholderia(B.)pseudomallei,primarily affecting immunocompromised individuals,particularly in endemic regions.Timely diagnosis and appropriate trea... Rationale:Melioidosis is a serious opportunistic infection caused by Burkholderia(B.)pseudomallei,primarily affecting immunocompromised individuals,particularly in endemic regions.Timely diagnosis and appropriate treatment are crucial to prevent fatal outcomes.Patient concerns:Case 1 was a 34-year-old male kidney transplant recipient who presented with a 15-day history of intermittent fever,accompanied by liver and spleen abscesses.Case 2 was a 37-year-old female kidney transplant recipient who presented with acute febrile illness and developed leucopenia.Blood cultures for both patients grew B.pseudomallei.Diagnosis:Both patients were diagnosed with melioidosis caused by B.pseudomallei,with the diagnosis confirmed through pus culture from the liver abscess in Case 1 and blood culture in Case 2.Interventions:Both patients were treated with an intensive regimen of meropenem(renal-adjusted doses),followed by a 3-month course of oral cotrimoxazole for eradication therapy.Outcomes:Case 1 experienced resolution of liver and spleen abscesses after 3 months of treatment and continued to recover well.In Case 2,blood cultures became sterile after 4 weeks,with no further complications observed.Lessons:Melioidosis should be suspected in immunocompromised patients,especially kidney transplant recipients,who present with unexplained fever and sepsis-like symptoms.Early diagnosis through aspiration of abscesses and prompt treatment are critical for preventing relapses and improving patient outcomes. 展开更多
关键词 Kidney transplant MELIOIDOSIS Deep seated abscess Disseminated infection MEROPENEM COTRIMOXAZOLE
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Parametric design for the valve seat of a high-temperature and high-pressure valve inside wind tunnels 被引量:1
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作者 Fengwei HOU Haifeng SHU +4 位作者 Binbin WU Chengliang YU Zhehui MA Wenqing LI Jinyuan QIAN 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 2025年第3期266-276,共11页
A high-temperature and high-pressure valve is the key equipment of a wind tunnel system;it controls the generation of high-temperature and high-pressure gas.To reduce the adverse impact of high-temperature and high-pr... A high-temperature and high-pressure valve is the key equipment of a wind tunnel system;it controls the generation of high-temperature and high-pressure gas.To reduce the adverse impact of high-temperature and high-pressure gas on the strength of the valve body,a cooling structure is set on the valve seat.This can significantly reduce the temperature of the valve body and valve seat.The effects of its structure on the cooling characteristics and stress of the valve seat are studied,and six main parameters that can completely describe the geometry of the cooling structure are proposed.The central composite design method is used to select sample points,and the multi-objective genetic algorithm(MOGA)method is used for optimal structural design.A modification method according to the main parameters for the valve seat is proposed.The results show that the cooling structure weakens the pressure-bearing capability of the valve seat.Among the six main parameters of the valve seat,the distance from the end face of the lower hole to the Z-axis and the distance from the axis of the lower hole to the origin of the coordinates have the most obvious effects on the average stress of the valve seat.An optimum design value is proposed.This work can provide a reference for the design of high-temperature and high-pressure valves. 展开更多
关键词 Control valve Valve seat OPTIMIZATION Parametric design
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Trajectory analysis and flight modeling of combat aircrafts ejection seats
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作者 Ercan BASTUG Nadir SERIN Faruk ELALDI 《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 2025年第2期175-184,共10页
In this study,it is aimed to develop a generic model which calculates the trajectory of the ejection seat from the jet aircraft,by taking into account the parameters that will affect the seat movement such as the seat... In this study,it is aimed to develop a generic model which calculates the trajectory of the ejection seat from the jet aircraft,by taking into account the parameters that will affect the seat movement such as the seat’s launch speed,ejection direction,ejection angle,altitude of the aircraft,distance/height from the aircraft rudder and canopy,pilot and ejection seat weight.With the model algorithm proposed,the ejection seat trajectory model was developed on MATLAB.The ejection seat trajectory model is based on point mass trajectory mathematical model.In this study,an analytical study of the problem has been made for modeling the flight trajectory of the ejection seat after it has been ejected.Past studies were used as a basis for validation and simulation.By writing a generic MATLAB code,a user interface was developed and presented to the user as a module.This generic code that has been developed could be used for simulations by users in the future by revising it in accordance with their own job descriptions. 展开更多
关键词 Ejection seat Ejection seat trajectory Point mass trajectory model Parachute opening times Aerodynamic coefficients
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Lightweight design and manufacture of die casting magnesium alloy seat frame
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作者 Jian Yang Kangle Wang +3 位作者 Qin Yang Jinsheng Zhang Tiegang Hu Bo Liu 《Journal of Magnesium and Alloys》 2025年第10期4817-4824,共8页
This study presents the development of a Magnesium Alloy Seat Frame(MASF),supported by case studies from automotive original equipment manufacturers.The process covers integrated design,simulation,manufacturing,and te... This study presents the development of a Magnesium Alloy Seat Frame(MASF),supported by case studies from automotive original equipment manufacturers.The process covers integrated design,simulation,manufacturing,and testing,aiming to boost industry confidence in Mg alloy applications.A novel structural design is developed that integrates the headrest with the backrest,achieving a balance between lightweight performance and safety.Structural optimization is guided by stress–strain simulations under diverse conditions within a complete forward development process.Casting simulations are conducted to analyze process characteristics,resulting in a verified MASF yield rate exceeding 90%.The final 9.88 kg MASF represents a 24.6%(3.23 kg)weight reduction versus a steel seat.This research contributes to advancements in defect control technology for large die casting magnesium alloy parts and has broad implications for their application in automotive manufacturing. 展开更多
关键词 MAGNESIUM Seat frame Forward design Die casting Lightweighting
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“营改增”的影响效应研究——以上海市的改革试点为例 被引量:83
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作者 吴金光 欧阳玲 段中元 《财经问题研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2014年第2期81-86,共6页
本文选取上海市的交通运输业、通讯业和建筑业与地方财政收入相关的24个序列,利用TRAMO/SEATS方法对"营改增"结构性减税政策效应进行实证检验。结果表明,"营改增"对交通运输业发展的促进作用在短期来看有限,"... 本文选取上海市的交通运输业、通讯业和建筑业与地方财政收入相关的24个序列,利用TRAMO/SEATS方法对"营改增"结构性减税政策效应进行实证检验。结果表明,"营改增"对交通运输业发展的促进作用在短期来看有限,"营改增"对通讯业和建筑业的改革红利预期较低,说明本轮较窄范围内的试点改革对产业发展的影响效应还未充分显现。最后,以分析结论为基础,就今后"营改增"的实施路径提出相关的政策建议。 展开更多
关键词 “营改增” 地方财政收入 上海市 TRAMO SEATS方法
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居民消费价格指数季节调整实证研究 被引量:76
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作者 张鸣芳 项燕霞 齐东军 《财经研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2004年第3期133-144,共12页
文章首先对居民消费价格指数季节调整的原因、季节调整方法的发展过程和应用进行了说明,着重介绍了国际上最新流行的X-12-ARIMA和TRAMO/SEATS季节调整方法,然后用X-12-ARIMA方法对上海市居民消费价格指数序列进行季节调整、分析和预测,... 文章首先对居民消费价格指数季节调整的原因、季节调整方法的发展过程和应用进行了说明,着重介绍了国际上最新流行的X-12-ARIMA和TRAMO/SEATS季节调整方法,然后用X-12-ARIMA方法对上海市居民消费价格指数序列进行季节调整、分析和预测,并结合使用TRAMO/SEATS方法解决中国与国外明显不同的春节假日因素的调整问题,最后提出我国季节调整面临的问题。 展开更多
关键词 居民消费价格指数 季节调整 X-12 ARIMA TRAMO/SEATS
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季节调整方法综述及比较 被引量:53
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作者 范维 张磊 石刚 《统计研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2006年第2期70-73,共4页
Seasonal adjustment has been widely used in statistic analyses.Nowadays,the research on seasonal adjustment methods mainly concentrates on X-11,X-12 etc in China,lacking the whole understanding of foreign seasonal adj... Seasonal adjustment has been widely used in statistic analyses.Nowadays,the research on seasonal adjustment methods mainly concentrates on X-11,X-12 etc in China,lacking the whole understanding of foreign seasonal adjustment methods,and the latest progress of seasonal adjustment methods has been less introduced.In this article,various seasonal adjustment methods were introduced,and a comparison of their characteristics and applications was made.It is helpful that statistical organizations can develop appropriate seasonal adjustment methods,concerning different kinds of data. 展开更多
关键词 季节调整 X-11 X-11-ARIMA X-12-ARIMA TRAMO/SEATS 结构时间序列模型
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盐城麋鹿生态旅游区游客变化特征及预测 被引量:17
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作者 黄震方 袁林旺 俞肇元 《地理学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2007年第12期1277-1286,共10页
生态旅游区的发展受到诸多确定性因素和随机性因素的共同作用,并反映于旅游区游客观测序列。通过构建游客序列分析框架,提出了游客序列分析的理论模型。并以江苏盐城麋鹿生态旅游区为例,集成多种数学方法,进行了游客序列的分解、调整和... 生态旅游区的发展受到诸多确定性因素和随机性因素的共同作用,并反映于旅游区游客观测序列。通过构建游客序列分析框架,提出了游客序列分析的理论模型。并以江苏盐城麋鹿生态旅游区为例,集成多种数学方法,进行了游客序列的分解、调整和综合预测的实证分析。运用Tramo/Seats方法进行季节调整分析可有效提取时间序列各组分,从而获得了不同尺度的作用模式,所获得的去噪序列为预测研究提供了基础资料。基于ARIMA模型、Winter加法模型、Winter乘法模型和Tramo/Seats模型的综合预测表明,麋鹿生态旅游区未来两年年平均新增游客数量在1.95-3.14万人次之间。各方法预测结果间的差异与其建模思路及实现方法有关,因此集成多种方法进行预测,并进行对比分析,有助于获得对游客波动变化更为全面的认识,同时所提供的多种可能预测方案,可为生态旅游区容量控制、旅游环境资源的保护与开发及旅游区的管理决策提供参考依据。 展开更多
关键词 游客预测 Tramo/Seats模型 ARIMA模型 Winters模型 盐城麋鹿生态旅游区
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居民消费价格指数的季节调整及短期预测 被引量:14
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作者 刘颖 陈辉 杜丹燕 《统计与决策》 CSSCI 北大核心 2009年第4期12-14,共3页
文章首先论述了季节调整方法的发展过程;然后把居民消费价格指数的同比数据转换为定基比数据,运用国际上最新流行的X-12-ARIMA程序对我国居民消费价格指数时间序列进行季节调整;再运用TRAMO/SEATS方法剔除中国特有的春节假日因素;最后对... 文章首先论述了季节调整方法的发展过程;然后把居民消费价格指数的同比数据转换为定基比数据,运用国际上最新流行的X-12-ARIMA程序对我国居民消费价格指数时间序列进行季节调整;再运用TRAMO/SEATS方法剔除中国特有的春节假日因素;最后对CPI进行短期预测,得出了我国的通货膨胀可能还会持续一段时间的结论。 展开更多
关键词 CPI 季节调整 X-12-ARIMA TRAMO/SEATS 短期预测
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基于ARIMA模型的春节因素调整方法研究 被引量:9
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作者 郭志武 蒲继红 滕国召 《中国卫生统计》 CSCD 北大核心 2009年第6期573-576,579,共5页
目的研究基于ARIMA模型的春节因素调整方法。方法构建通用的春节因素变量,将其作为回归变量纳入季节性ARIMA回归模型(regARIMA或TRAMO),采用AIC或BIC对模型的效果进行判断,确定最优模型。采用广义最小二乘法或最大似然法进行参数估计,... 目的研究基于ARIMA模型的春节因素调整方法。方法构建通用的春节因素变量,将其作为回归变量纳入季节性ARIMA回归模型(regARIMA或TRAMO),采用AIC或BIC对模型的效果进行判断,确定最优模型。采用广义最小二乘法或最大似然法进行参数估计,并根据估计出的回归系数计算春节因素的影响程度。通过实例分析对上述方法进行实证。结果实例分析表明,引入春节因素变量后的季节调整方法能有效地消除春节因素对时间序列的影响,并能定量分析春节因素的影响程度。结论构建的春节因素变量具有较好的适用性,基于ARIMA模型的春节因素调整方法能有效地运用于时间序列的季节调整,为分析春节因素的影响提供了一种新的方法。 展开更多
关键词 春节因素 季节调整 X-12-ARIMA TRAMO/SEATS
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