科学数据银行(Science Data Bank)于2022年4月18日正式发布共享社会经济路径(SSPs)人口和经济格点化数据库(gridded datasets for population and economy under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)。该数据集是在多个国际和国内项目支持下...科学数据银行(Science Data Bank)于2022年4月18日正式发布共享社会经济路径(SSPs)人口和经济格点化数据库(gridded datasets for population and economy under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)。该数据集是在多个国际和国内项目支持下,经过十余年的研究和探索制作而成。数据集包含SSP1~SSP5情景下2020-2100年全球、“一带一路”沿线国家和中国城市和农村的人口和GDP逐年格点预估数据,分辨率为0.5°×0.5°。展开更多
Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and...Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and where current projections agree or disagree remains unknown.Here,we systematically compare existing global projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.We find that the total global urban land area is expected to increase by 112%between 2020 and 2100(averaged across all projections),with a coefficient of variation of 0.81.This variation is mostly caused by the selection of the underlying drivers that are included in the different models.Regionally,the highest average growth rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa(+679%to+730%),while this region also has the highest variation across projections(coefficient of variation ranging from 2.02 to 2.18).When ranking scenarios within a study from the highest to the lowest projected increase in urban land,rankings are relatively similar for regions in the Global North,but not for regions in the Global South.The large disagreement across projections can lead to high uncertainties in assessments of future urban land change impacts,which can undermine the effectiveness of long-term planning,policymaking,and resource management decisions.展开更多
Land use in arid and semi-arid regions has a substantial effect on climate,environment,and biodiversity,thereby projecting the spatiotemporal changes in land use and the subsequent effects.This study employed the loca...Land use in arid and semi-arid regions has a substantial effect on climate,environment,and biodiversity,thereby projecting the spatiotemporal changes in land use and the subsequent effects.This study employed the locally calibrated Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model,which coupled system dynamics with cellular automata and integrated an artificial neural network algorithm and a roulette wheel selection mechanism.We projected future land use(2020–2100)dynamics of Lanzhou,a typical river valley city in Northwest China,under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5).The simulation results were validated and subsequently reclassified using the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme(IGBP)system to produce a dataset suitable for driving climatic and environmental models.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,urban and built-up land expanded consistently,whereas irrigated cropland and pasture as well as grassland contracted continuously.Conversely,the SSP5-8.5 scenario was characterized by a contraction of urban and built-up land,and relative stability of irrigated cropland and pasture as well as grassland.The SSP2-4.5 scenario presented a more complex trade-off,where urban and built-up land and grassland increased first and then decreased,whereas irrigated cropland and pasture followed an opposite trajectory.A significant inverse relationship between urban and built-up land and irrigated cropland and pasture was observed under all scenarios,underscoring the fundamental spatial competition that prevailed in this land-constrained valley city.Furthermore,the negative correlation of grassland with urban and built-up land,coupled with the positive correlation of grassland with irrigated cropland and pasture under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,indicated an evolution from broad confrontation to intricate internal trade-offs within the urban–agricultural–ecological system.This study underscored the critical influence of regional topographic and hydrological constraints on land-use evolution in arid regions,providing guidance for water resource management and ecosystem protection in Lanzhou,with applications for sustainable land-use planning in other arid and semi-arid river valley cities.展开更多
文摘科学数据银行(Science Data Bank)于2022年4月18日正式发布共享社会经济路径(SSPs)人口和经济格点化数据库(gridded datasets for population and economy under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)。该数据集是在多个国际和国内项目支持下,经过十余年的研究和探索制作而成。数据集包含SSP1~SSP5情景下2020-2100年全球、“一带一路”沿线国家和中国城市和农村的人口和GDP逐年格点预估数据,分辨率为0.5°×0.5°。
基金supported by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research NWO in the form of a VIDI grant(Grant No.VI.Vidi.198.008).
文摘Projections of future urban land change are essential for a range of sustainability assessments,including those related to biodiversity loss,carbon emissions,and agricultural land conversion.However,to what extent and where current projections agree or disagree remains unknown.Here,we systematically compare existing global projections that are consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.We find that the total global urban land area is expected to increase by 112%between 2020 and 2100(averaged across all projections),with a coefficient of variation of 0.81.This variation is mostly caused by the selection of the underlying drivers that are included in the different models.Regionally,the highest average growth rates are found in sub-Saharan Africa(+679%to+730%),while this region also has the highest variation across projections(coefficient of variation ranging from 2.02 to 2.18).When ranking scenarios within a study from the highest to the lowest projected increase in urban land,rankings are relatively similar for regions in the Global North,but not for regions in the Global South.The large disagreement across projections can lead to high uncertainties in assessments of future urban land change impacts,which can undermine the effectiveness of long-term planning,policymaking,and resource management decisions.
基金supported by the Soft Science Special Project of Gansu Basic Research Plan(25JRZA206)the Longyuan Youth Talent Project of Gansu Province(ZHU Rong)+1 种基金the Innovation Development Special Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2025J036)the Program of the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Chinese Academy of Sciences(CSFSE-KF-2402).
文摘Land use in arid and semi-arid regions has a substantial effect on climate,environment,and biodiversity,thereby projecting the spatiotemporal changes in land use and the subsequent effects.This study employed the locally calibrated Future Land Use Simulation(FLUS)model,which coupled system dynamics with cellular automata and integrated an artificial neural network algorithm and a roulette wheel selection mechanism.We projected future land use(2020–2100)dynamics of Lanzhou,a typical river valley city in Northwest China,under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5).The simulation results were validated and subsequently reclassified using the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme(IGBP)system to produce a dataset suitable for driving climatic and environmental models.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,urban and built-up land expanded consistently,whereas irrigated cropland and pasture as well as grassland contracted continuously.Conversely,the SSP5-8.5 scenario was characterized by a contraction of urban and built-up land,and relative stability of irrigated cropland and pasture as well as grassland.The SSP2-4.5 scenario presented a more complex trade-off,where urban and built-up land and grassland increased first and then decreased,whereas irrigated cropland and pasture followed an opposite trajectory.A significant inverse relationship between urban and built-up land and irrigated cropland and pasture was observed under all scenarios,underscoring the fundamental spatial competition that prevailed in this land-constrained valley city.Furthermore,the negative correlation of grassland with urban and built-up land,coupled with the positive correlation of grassland with irrigated cropland and pasture under both the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,indicated an evolution from broad confrontation to intricate internal trade-offs within the urban–agricultural–ecological system.This study underscored the critical influence of regional topographic and hydrological constraints on land-use evolution in arid regions,providing guidance for water resource management and ecosystem protection in Lanzhou,with applications for sustainable land-use planning in other arid and semi-arid river valley cities.
