摘要
城镇化是导致陆地生态系统碳储量损失的重要原因.评估共享社会经济路径(SSPs)情景下城市扩张及其对陆地生态系统碳储量的影响,可以为“双碳”目标实现路径和低碳城市发展模式选择提供决策参考.系统地评估了SSP情景下2020~2050年广东省城镇化时空演化过程及其造成的陆地碳储量损失.结果表明:①所有SSP情景下未来广东省城市扩张均集中在珠三角地区和粤西湛江、茂名两地,除SSP1情景下城市建成区在2039年停止扩张,其他情景下城市扩张均在2047或2048年停止.②不同发展情景下广东省城镇化导致的陆地碳储量(以C计)损失约为2.60~4.43 Tg,SSP1情景下城市扩张最缓慢、造成的陆地碳储量损失最小,SSP5情景下城市扩张最剧烈、陆地碳储量损失最大.③所有发展情景下,耕地均是城市扩张侵占的主要地类,约占新增城市建成区总面积的85%,城市扩张侵占的其余土地类别有水体(约9%)、灌丛(约4%)和森林(约1%)等.相应地,城市扩张导致的陆地碳储量的损失也主要来源于耕地土壤碳储量损失,城镇化侵占的耕地贡献了约90%的碳储量损失,灌丛和森林分别贡献了6%和4%.④分碳库而言,土壤碳库碳储量损失占比高达98%以上,是城镇化导致的陆地碳储量损失的主要来源.
Urbanization is a vital factor inducing the loss of terrestrial carbon stocks,and evaluating the impacts of urbanization on terrestrial carbon stocks under shared socioeconomic pathways can provide decision-making references for achieving the dual carbon goals and selecting low-carbon urban development models.In this study,terrestrial carbon stock loss resulting from urbanization and the spatiotemporal evolution of urbanization in Guangdong Province during 2020 to 2050 were systematically assessed under the shared socioeconomic pathways scenario framework.The results show that most of the newly added urban area occurs in western Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta,including Zhanjiang,Maoming,Guangzhou and Foshan.Urbanization stabilizes in 2047 or 2048 under all SSP scenarios except SSP1,under which urbanization ceases to expand by 2039.Secondly,the loss of terrestrial carbon stocks(measured by C)resulting from urban expansion in Guangdong ranges from approximately 2.60 to 4.43 Tg under the five typical SSPs scenarios.Among all the SSPs scenarios,the slowest urbanization rate and minimum loss of terrestrial carbon stocks occurs under SSP1,while the largest newly added urban area and the maximum loss of terrestrial carbon stocks occurs under SSP5.Thirdly,cropland is the primary land cover type encroached upon by urban expansion under all of the SSP scenarios,accounting for approximately 85%of the total newly added urban built-up area.Water body,shrubland,forest,and others account for about 9%,4%,1%,and less than 1%,respectively,of the other land cover types transformed to newly added urban area.Correspondingly,the loss of carbon stocked in cropland contributes about 90% of the total carbon stock loss induced by urbanization.Shrubland and forest share the remaining 10% carbon stock loss.Finally,soil carbon stock,which accounts for more than 98% of the total carbon loss,is the main source of the total carbon stock loss resulting from urbanization.
作者
赵克飞
邵铮
姚晓华
谢雨蝶
李乐
ZHAO Ke-fei;SHAO Zheng;YAO Xiao-hua;XIE Yu-die;LI Le(School of Management,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510520,China)
出处
《环境科学》
北大核心
2025年第10期6512-6521,共10页
Environmental Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(42101417)
广东省自然科学基金项目(2022A1515010641)
广州市基础与应用基础研究项目(2024A04J9957).
