The novel structural reliability methodology presented in this study is especially well suited for multidimensional structural dynamics that are physically measured or numerically simulated over a representative timel...The novel structural reliability methodology presented in this study is especially well suited for multidimensional structural dynamics that are physically measured or numerically simulated over a representative timelapse.The Gaidai multivariate reliability method is applied to an operational offshore Jacket platform that operates in Bohai Bay.This study demonstrates the feasibility of this method to accurately estimate collapse risks in dynamic systems under in situ environmental stressors.Modern reliability approaches do not cope easily with the high dimensionality of real engineering dynamic systems,as well as nonlinear intercorrelations between various structural components.The Jacket offshore platform is chosen as the case study for this reliability analysis because of the presence of various hotspot stresses that synchronously arise in its structural parts.The authors provide a straightforward,precise method for estimating overall risks of operational failure,damage,or hazard for nonlinear multidimensional dynamic systems.The latter tool is important for offshore engineers during the design stage.展开更多
In this work,we demonstrated the InSnO(ITO)TFTs passivated with SiO_(2)via the PECVD process compatible with large-area production for the first time.The passivated ITO TFTs with various channel thicknesses(t_(ch)=4,5...In this work,we demonstrated the InSnO(ITO)TFTs passivated with SiO_(2)via the PECVD process compatible with large-area production for the first time.The passivated ITO TFTs with various channel thicknesses(t_(ch)=4,5,6 nm)exhibit excellent electrical performance and superior uniformity.The reliability properties of ITO TFTs were evaluated in detail under positive bias stress(PBS)conditions before and after passivation.Compared to the devices without passivation,the passivated devices have only 50%threshold voltage degradation(ΔV_(th))and 50%newly generated traps due to excellent isolation of the ambient atmosphere.The negligible performance degradation of ITO TFTs with passivation during negative bias stress(NBS)and negative bias temperature stress(NBTS)verifies the outstanding immunity to the water vapor of the SiO_(2)passivation layer.Overall,the ITO TFT with the t_(ch)of 6 nm and with SiO_(2)passivation exhibits the best performance in terms of electrical properties,uniformity,and reliability,which is promising in large-area production.展开更多
This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for ...This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for identifying critical failure modes and their root causes,while BN introduces flexibility in probabilistic reasoning,enabling dynamic updates based on new evidence.This dual methodology overcomes the limitations of static FTA models,offering a comprehensive framework for system reliability analysis.Critical failures,including External Leakage(ELU),Failure to Start(FTS),and Overheating(OHE),were identified as key risks.By incorporating redundancy into high-risk components such as pumps and batteries,the likelihood of these failures was significantly reduced.For instance,redundant pumps reduced the probability of ELU by 31.88%,while additional batteries decreased the occurrence of FTS by 36.45%.The results underscore the practical benefits of combining FTA and BN for enhancing system reliability,particularly in maritime applications where operational safety and efficiency are critical.This research provides valuable insights for maintenance planning and highlights the importance of redundancy in critical systems,especially as the industry transitions toward more autonomous vessels.展开更多
To study the durability of concrete in harsh environments in Northwest China,concrete was prepared with various durability-improving materials such as concrete anti-erosion inhibitor(SBT-TIA),acrylate polymer(AP),supe...To study the durability of concrete in harsh environments in Northwest China,concrete was prepared with various durability-improving materials such as concrete anti-erosion inhibitor(SBT-TIA),acrylate polymer(AP),super absorbent resin(SAP).The erosion mode and internal deterioration mechanism under salt freeze-thaw cycle and dry-wet cycle were explored.The results show that the addition of enhancing materials can effectively improve the resistance of concrete to salt freezing and sulfate erosion:the relevant indexes of concrete added with X-AP and T-AP are improved after salt freeze-thaw cycles;concrete added with SBTTIA shows optimal sulfate corrosion resistance;and concrete added with AP displays the best resistance to salt freezing.Microanalysis shows that the increase in the number of cycles decreases the generation of internal hydration products and defects in concrete mixed with enhancing materials and improves the related indexes.Based on the Wiener model analysis,the reliability of concrete with different lithologies and enhancing materials is improved,which may provide a reference for the application of manufactured sand concrete and enhancing materials in Northwest China,especially for the study of the improvement effects and mechanism of enhancing materials on the performance of concrete.展开更多
Reservoir-induced landslides in China's Three Gorges Reservoir area are prone to tensile cracks due to the influenceof their own weight and fluctuationsin water levels.The presence of cracks indicates that the ten...Reservoir-induced landslides in China's Three Gorges Reservoir area are prone to tensile cracks due to the influenceof their own weight and fluctuationsin water levels.The presence of cracks indicates that the tensile stress in the area has exceeded the tensile strength of the soil,leading to local instability.To explore the impact of tensile failure behavior on the stability and failure modes of reservoir landslides,the Huangtupo Riverside Slump#1 is taken as a case study.By considering local tensile failure,potential tensile cracks are incorporated into the analysis via the limit equilibrium method and reliability theory.The reliability of landslides under different tensile failure scenarios is quantified.Strain-softening characteristics of the soil are combined to further analyze the failure transmission path of the landslide.Finally,these potential failure modes were validated through physical model tests.The results show that cracks developing at rear positions reduce the stability of the slope and increase the probability of instability.During the destruction process,retrogressive failures with multiple sliding surfaces are likely to occur.However,tensile failure at the forefront reduces the likelihood of an individual slide mass descending.Progressive failure results in both regular and skip transmission patterns.Additionally,cracks and water level changes can also lead to shifts in the positions of the most dangerous blocks.Therefore,in practical landslide analysis and prevention,it is necessary to consider local tensile damage and identify potential tensile crack locations in advance to optimize prevention measures and accurately evaluate landslide risk.展开更多
In reliability analyses,the absence of a priori information on the most probable point of failure(MPP)may result in overlooking critical points,thereby leading to biased assessment outcomes.Moreover,second-order relia...In reliability analyses,the absence of a priori information on the most probable point of failure(MPP)may result in overlooking critical points,thereby leading to biased assessment outcomes.Moreover,second-order reliability methods exhibit limited accuracy in highly nonlinear scenarios.To overcome these challenges,a novel reliability analysis strategy based on a multimodal differential evolution algorithm and a hypersphere integration method is proposed.Initially,the penalty function method is employed to reformulate the MPP search problem as a conditionally constrained optimization task.Subsequently,a differential evolution algorithm incorporating a population delineation strategy is utilized to identify all MPPs.Finally,a paraboloid equation is constructed based on the curvature of the limit-state function at the MPPs,and the failure probability of the structure is calculated by using the hypersphere integration method.The localization effectiveness of the MPPs is compared through multiple numerical cases and two engineering examples,with accuracy comparisons of failure probabilities against the first-order reliability method(FORM)and the secondorder reliability method(SORM).The results indicate that the method effectively identifies existing MPPs and achieves higher solution precision.展开更多
It is well recognized that Structural Health Monitoring(SHM)reliability evaluation is a key aspect that needs to be urgently addressed to promote the wide application of SHM methods.However,the existing studies typica...It is well recognized that Structural Health Monitoring(SHM)reliability evaluation is a key aspect that needs to be urgently addressed to promote the wide application of SHM methods.However,the existing studies typically transfer the Non-Destructive Testing/Evaluation(NDT/E)reliability metrics to SHM without a systematic analysis of where these metrics originated.Seldom attentions are paid to the evaluation conditions which are very important to apply these metrics.Aimed at this issue,a new condition control-based Dual-Reliability Evaluation(Dual-RE)method for SHM is proposed.This new method is proposed based on a systematic analysis of the whole framework of reliability evaluation from instrument to NDT,and emphasis is paid to the evaluation condition control.Based on these analyses,considering the special online application scenario of SHM,the proposed Dual-RE method contains two key components:Integrated Sensor-based SHM-RE(IS-SHM-RE)and Critical Service Condition-based SHM-RE(CSC-SHM-RE).ISSHM-RE evaluates the reliability of integrated SHM sensor and system themselves under approximate repeatability conditions,while CSC-SHM-RE assesses SHM reliability under the dominant uncertainties during service,namely intermediate conditions.To demonstrate the Dual-RE,crack monitoring by using the Guided Wave-based-SHM(GW-SHM)on aircraft lug structures is taken as a case study.Both the crack detection and sizing performance are evaluated from accuracy and uncertainty.展开更多
The calculation of fatigue stress ranges due to random waves and ice loads on offshore structures is discussed, and the corresponding accumulative fatigue damages of the structural members are evaluated. To evaluate t...The calculation of fatigue stress ranges due to random waves and ice loads on offshore structures is discussed, and the corresponding accumulative fatigue damages of the structural members are evaluated. To evaluate the fatigue damage to the structures more accurately, the Miner rule is modified considering the fuzziness of the concerned parameters, and a new model for fuzzy fatigue reliability analysis of offshore structures members is developed. Furthermore, an assessment method for predicting the dynamics of the fuzzy fatigue reliability of structural members is provided.展开更多
Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for...Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper. The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore platforms. It is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation. And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables. A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too. Furthermore, the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method. On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode, the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper. Finally the instantaneous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.展开更多
Ice load is the dominative load in the design of offshore platforms in the ice zone, and the extreme ice load is the key factor that affects the safety of platforms. The present paper studies the statistical propertie...Ice load is the dominative load in the design of offshore platforms in the ice zone, and the extreme ice load is the key factor that affects the safety of platforms. The present paper studies the statistical properties of the global resistance and the extreme responses of the jacket platforms in Bahai Bay, considering the randomness of ice load, dead load, steel elastic modulus, yield strength and structural member dimensions. Then, based on the above results, an efficient approximate method of the global reliability analysis for the offshore platforms is proposed, which converts the implicit nonlinear performance function in the conventional reliability analysis to linear explicit one. Finally, numerical examples of JZ20-2 MSW, JZ20-2NW and JZ20-2 MUQ offshore jacket platforms in the Bahai Bay demonstrate the satisfying efficiency, accuracy and applicability of the proposed method.展开更多
In consideration of the fuzzy constraint boundary and through analysis of structural reliability, a model of structural fuzzy optimum design is established based on reliability for offshore jacket platforms. According...In consideration of the fuzzy constraint boundary and through analysis of structural reliability, a model of structural fuzzy optimum design is established based on reliability for offshore jacket platforms. According to the characteristics of offshore jacket platforms, the tolerance coefficient of the constraint boundary is determined with the fuzzy optimization method. The optimum level cut set lambda*, which is the intersection of the fuzzy constraint set and fuzzy objective set, is determined with the bound search method, and then the fuzzy optimum solution to the fuzzy optimization problem is obtained. The central offshore platform SZ36-1 is designed with the fuzzy optimum model based on reliability; the results are compared with those from deterministic optimum design and fuzzy optimum design. The tendency of design variables in the above three methods and its reasons are analyzed. The results of an example show that the fuzzy optimum design based on reliability is stable and reliable.展开更多
The target reliability index has been effectively used as the best solution to deal with the relationship between the structural safety and the optimal economy in any structural design. However, the target reliability...The target reliability index has been effectively used as the best solution to deal with the relationship between the structural safety and the optimal economy in any structural design. However, the target reliability index for offshore jacket platforms based on different sea areas in China has never been calibrated. This paper presents an approach for its calibration, and suggests many kinds of associated load cases. The uncertainties of loads and structural resistance are mainly in- vestigated. The target reliability index for structural components, tubular joints and piles of offshore jacket plaffortns are discussed respectively in detail. Finally, through the calibrated results from the offshore jacket platforms of QK18-1, JZ20-2, SZ36-1 and BZ28-1 in the Bohai Bay, it is proposed to adopt 2.8 as the target reliability index of offshore jacket platforms in the Bohai Bay for a 25-year design period. The results provide significant reference for the design of offshore jacket platforms.展开更多
Owing to the ageing of the existing structures worldwide and the lack of codes for the continued safely management of structures during their lifetime, it is very necessary to develop a tool to evaluate their system r...Owing to the ageing of the existing structures worldwide and the lack of codes for the continued safely management of structures during their lifetime, it is very necessary to develop a tool to evaluate their system reliability over a time interval. In this paper, a method is proposed to analyze system reliability of existing jacket platforms. The influences of dint, crack and corrosion are considered. The mechanics characteristics of the existing jacket platforms to extreme loads are analyzed by use of the nonlinear mechanical analysis. The nonlinear interaction of pile-soil-structure is taken into consideration in the analysis. By use of FEM method and Monte Carlo simulation, the system reliability of the existing jacket platforul can be obtained. The method has been illustrated through application to BZ28-1 three jacket platforms which have operated for sixteen years. Advantages of the proposed method for analyzing the system reliability of the existing jacket platform is also highlighted.展开更多
Matrix method is being proposed for qualitative evaluation of the reliability of technical systems on a finite set of structural elements. We are introducing the criteria for qualitative assessment of the reliability ...Matrix method is being proposed for qualitative evaluation of the reliability of technical systems on a finite set of structural elements. We are introducing the criteria for qualitative assessment of the reliability in the form of structural reliability of the system as the probability of the troubleproof state of this system and the significancy of the individual elements in ensuring the structural reliability of the system as a general aggregate of conditional probabilities, which compose two (2 × 2) matrices of significancy for each element. We are using chain diagrams for solving the combinatronic problems and matrices for algorithmization of calculating procedures.展开更多
Purpose–This paper focuses on studying the reliability allocation for the railway system,aiming to improve the overall reliability of the railway system and ensure safety operation.Design/methodology/approach–In vie...Purpose–This paper focuses on studying the reliability allocation for the railway system,aiming to improve the overall reliability of the railway system and ensure safety operation.Design/methodology/approach–In view of the complex structure of the railway system,involving many subsystems,this paper analyzes the close dynamic coupling effect between railway subsystems.Based on this,taking the railway system failure as the top event,a fault tree is constructed in this paper.Then,a reliability allocation method based on the fault tree is employed to allocate the reliability index.Finally,a numerical experiment is implemented to show the performance of the reliability allocation method.Findings–The results showed that each subsystem needs to improve its reliability to meet the specified railway system reliability requirements,and the traction power supply system is the most important subsystem,which is the most efficient in improving the reliability of the railway system.Originality/value–For the first time,starting from a holistic perspective of the system,reliability allocation is carried out based on the importance of each railway subsystem.展开更多
Autonomous Underwater Vehicles(AUVs)are pivotal for deep-sea exploration and resource exploitation,yet their reliability in extreme underwater environments remains a critical barrier to widespread deployment.Through s...Autonomous Underwater Vehicles(AUVs)are pivotal for deep-sea exploration and resource exploitation,yet their reliability in extreme underwater environments remains a critical barrier to widespread deployment.Through systematic analysis of 150 peer-reviewed studies employing mixed-methods research,this review yields three principal advancements to the reliability analysis of AUVs.First,based on the hierarchical functional division of AUVs into six subsystems(propulsion system,navigation system,communication system,power system,environmental detection system,and emergency system),this study systematically identifies the primary failure modes and potential failure causes of each subsystem,providing theoretical support for fault diagnosis and reliability optimization.Subsequently,a comprehensive review of AUV reliability analysis methods is conducted from three perspectives:analytical methods,simulated methods,and surrogate model methods.The applicability and limitations of each method are critically analyzed to offer insights into their suitability for engineering applications.Finally,the study highlights key challenges and research hotpots in AUV reliability analysis,including reliability analysis under limited data,AI-driven reliability analysis,and human reliability analysis.Furthermore,the potential of multi-sensor data fusion,edge computing,and advanced materials in enhancing AUV environmental adaptability and reliability is explored.展开更多
BACKGROUND During the gradual decline of physical and social functioning associated with end-stage renal disease,patients might experience a premonition of impending death,resulting in a series of pre-mourning grief r...BACKGROUND During the gradual decline of physical and social functioning associated with end-stage renal disease,patients might experience a premonition of impending death,resulting in a series of pre-mourning grief responses called preparatory grief.The preparatory grief in advanced cancer patients(PGAC)scale is the most widely used preparatory grief scale for patients on hemodialysis in China.AIM To verify the reliability and validity of the PGAC scale in patients on hemodialysis.METHODS In total,327 patients undergoing regular hemodialysis in the blood purification center of three grade-A tertiary hospitals in Guangdong and Guizhou provinces were selected by convenience sampling.The assessment was administered using the general information questionnaire and the Chinese version of PGAC.SPSS 25.0 and Amos 24.0 were used for item analysis,confirmatory factor analysis(CFA),convergent validity,and internal consistency reliability estimation.RESULTS In the modified Chinese version of PGAC,7 dimensions covering 27 total items were retained.CFA revealed a good fit of the factor model(chi-square degree of freedom=2.056,standardized root mean square residual=0.0479,root mean square error of approximation=0.0570,GFI=0.872,AGFI=0.841,IFI=0.931,CFI=0.930,TLI=0.919).The factor loadings of the items ranged 0.503-0.884.The composite reliability ranged 0.664-0.914,and the average variance extracted ranged 0.366-0.747.Cronbach’sαof the scale was 0.945,and Cronbach’sαfor various dimensions ranged 0.662-0.914.CONCLUSION The modified PGAC has good reliability and validity,and it can effectively measure preparatory grief in patients on hemodialysis.展开更多
文摘The novel structural reliability methodology presented in this study is especially well suited for multidimensional structural dynamics that are physically measured or numerically simulated over a representative timelapse.The Gaidai multivariate reliability method is applied to an operational offshore Jacket platform that operates in Bohai Bay.This study demonstrates the feasibility of this method to accurately estimate collapse risks in dynamic systems under in situ environmental stressors.Modern reliability approaches do not cope easily with the high dimensionality of real engineering dynamic systems,as well as nonlinear intercorrelations between various structural components.The Jacket offshore platform is chosen as the case study for this reliability analysis because of the presence of various hotspot stresses that synchronously arise in its structural parts.The authors provide a straightforward,precise method for estimating overall risks of operational failure,damage,or hazard for nonlinear multidimensional dynamic systems.The latter tool is important for offshore engineers during the design stage.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62404110,62274033)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20221453)+1 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central UniversitiesNatural Science Research Start-up Foundation of Recruiting Talents of Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications(NY223159)。
文摘In this work,we demonstrated the InSnO(ITO)TFTs passivated with SiO_(2)via the PECVD process compatible with large-area production for the first time.The passivated ITO TFTs with various channel thicknesses(t_(ch)=4,5,6 nm)exhibit excellent electrical performance and superior uniformity.The reliability properties of ITO TFTs were evaluated in detail under positive bias stress(PBS)conditions before and after passivation.Compared to the devices without passivation,the passivated devices have only 50%threshold voltage degradation(ΔV_(th))and 50%newly generated traps due to excellent isolation of the ambient atmosphere.The negligible performance degradation of ITO TFTs with passivation during negative bias stress(NBS)and negative bias temperature stress(NBTS)verifies the outstanding immunity to the water vapor of the SiO_(2)passivation layer.Overall,the ITO TFT with the t_(ch)of 6 nm and with SiO_(2)passivation exhibits the best performance in terms of electrical properties,uniformity,and reliability,which is promising in large-area production.
基金supported by Istanbul Technical University(Project No.45698)supported through the“Young Researchers’Career Development Project-training of doctoral students”of the Croatian Science Foundation.
文摘This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for identifying critical failure modes and their root causes,while BN introduces flexibility in probabilistic reasoning,enabling dynamic updates based on new evidence.This dual methodology overcomes the limitations of static FTA models,offering a comprehensive framework for system reliability analysis.Critical failures,including External Leakage(ELU),Failure to Start(FTS),and Overheating(OHE),were identified as key risks.By incorporating redundancy into high-risk components such as pumps and batteries,the likelihood of these failures was significantly reduced.For instance,redundant pumps reduced the probability of ELU by 31.88%,while additional batteries decreased the occurrence of FTS by 36.45%.The results underscore the practical benefits of combining FTA and BN for enhancing system reliability,particularly in maritime applications where operational safety and efficiency are critical.This research provides valuable insights for maintenance planning and highlights the importance of redundancy in critical systems,especially as the industry transitions toward more autonomous vessels.
基金Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52178216)the Research on the Durability and Application of High-performance Concrete for Highway Engineering in the Cold and Arid Salt Areas of Northwest China(No.2022-24)the Construction Project of the Scientific Research Platform of Provincial Enterprises Supported by the Capital Operating Budget of Gansu Province(No.2023GZ018)。
文摘To study the durability of concrete in harsh environments in Northwest China,concrete was prepared with various durability-improving materials such as concrete anti-erosion inhibitor(SBT-TIA),acrylate polymer(AP),super absorbent resin(SAP).The erosion mode and internal deterioration mechanism under salt freeze-thaw cycle and dry-wet cycle were explored.The results show that the addition of enhancing materials can effectively improve the resistance of concrete to salt freezing and sulfate erosion:the relevant indexes of concrete added with X-AP and T-AP are improved after salt freeze-thaw cycles;concrete added with SBTTIA shows optimal sulfate corrosion resistance;and concrete added with AP displays the best resistance to salt freezing.Microanalysis shows that the increase in the number of cycles decreases the generation of internal hydration products and defects in concrete mixed with enhancing materials and improves the related indexes.Based on the Wiener model analysis,the reliability of concrete with different lithologies and enhancing materials is improved,which may provide a reference for the application of manufactured sand concrete and enhancing materials in Northwest China,especially for the study of the improvement effects and mechanism of enhancing materials on the performance of concrete.
基金supported by the Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42090055)the National Key ScientificInstruments and Equipment Development Projects of China(Grant No.41827808)the National Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42207216).
文摘Reservoir-induced landslides in China's Three Gorges Reservoir area are prone to tensile cracks due to the influenceof their own weight and fluctuationsin water levels.The presence of cracks indicates that the tensile stress in the area has exceeded the tensile strength of the soil,leading to local instability.To explore the impact of tensile failure behavior on the stability and failure modes of reservoir landslides,the Huangtupo Riverside Slump#1 is taken as a case study.By considering local tensile failure,potential tensile cracks are incorporated into the analysis via the limit equilibrium method and reliability theory.The reliability of landslides under different tensile failure scenarios is quantified.Strain-softening characteristics of the soil are combined to further analyze the failure transmission path of the landslide.Finally,these potential failure modes were validated through physical model tests.The results show that cracks developing at rear positions reduce the stability of the slope and increase the probability of instability.During the destruction process,retrogressive failures with multiple sliding surfaces are likely to occur.However,tensile failure at the forefront reduces the likelihood of an individual slide mass descending.Progressive failure results in both regular and skip transmission patterns.Additionally,cracks and water level changes can also lead to shifts in the positions of the most dangerous blocks.Therefore,in practical landslide analysis and prevention,it is necessary to consider local tensile damage and identify potential tensile crack locations in advance to optimize prevention measures and accurately evaluate landslide risk.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52375236)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(No.23D110316)。
文摘In reliability analyses,the absence of a priori information on the most probable point of failure(MPP)may result in overlooking critical points,thereby leading to biased assessment outcomes.Moreover,second-order reliability methods exhibit limited accuracy in highly nonlinear scenarios.To overcome these challenges,a novel reliability analysis strategy based on a multimodal differential evolution algorithm and a hypersphere integration method is proposed.Initially,the penalty function method is employed to reformulate the MPP search problem as a conditionally constrained optimization task.Subsequently,a differential evolution algorithm incorporating a population delineation strategy is utilized to identify all MPPs.Finally,a paraboloid equation is constructed based on the curvature of the limit-state function at the MPPs,and the failure probability of the structure is calculated by using the hypersphere integration method.The localization effectiveness of the MPPs is compared through multiple numerical cases and two engineering examples,with accuracy comparisons of failure probabilities against the first-order reliability method(FORM)and the secondorder reliability method(SORM).The results indicate that the method effectively identifies existing MPPs and achieves higher solution precision.
基金the support from National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52275153)the Frontier Technologies R&D Program of Jiangsu,China(No.BF2024068)+1 种基金The Fund of Prospective Layout of Scientific Research for Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,ChinaResearch Fund of State Key Laboratory of Mechanics and Control for Aerospace Structures(Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics),China(Nos.MCAS-I-0425K01,MCAS-I-0423G01)。
文摘It is well recognized that Structural Health Monitoring(SHM)reliability evaluation is a key aspect that needs to be urgently addressed to promote the wide application of SHM methods.However,the existing studies typically transfer the Non-Destructive Testing/Evaluation(NDT/E)reliability metrics to SHM without a systematic analysis of where these metrics originated.Seldom attentions are paid to the evaluation conditions which are very important to apply these metrics.Aimed at this issue,a new condition control-based Dual-Reliability Evaluation(Dual-RE)method for SHM is proposed.This new method is proposed based on a systematic analysis of the whole framework of reliability evaluation from instrument to NDT,and emphasis is paid to the evaluation condition control.Based on these analyses,considering the special online application scenario of SHM,the proposed Dual-RE method contains two key components:Integrated Sensor-based SHM-RE(IS-SHM-RE)and Critical Service Condition-based SHM-RE(CSC-SHM-RE).ISSHM-RE evaluates the reliability of integrated SHM sensor and system themselves under approximate repeatability conditions,while CSC-SHM-RE assesses SHM reliability under the dominant uncertainties during service,namely intermediate conditions.To demonstrate the Dual-RE,crack monitoring by using the Guided Wave-based-SHM(GW-SHM)on aircraft lug structures is taken as a case study.Both the crack detection and sizing performance are evaluated from accuracy and uncertainty.
文摘The calculation of fatigue stress ranges due to random waves and ice loads on offshore structures is discussed, and the corresponding accumulative fatigue damages of the structural members are evaluated. To evaluate the fatigue damage to the structures more accurately, the Miner rule is modified considering the fuzziness of the concerned parameters, and a new model for fuzzy fatigue reliability analysis of offshore structures members is developed. Furthermore, an assessment method for predicting the dynamics of the fuzzy fatigue reliability of structural members is provided.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50609009)
文摘Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper. The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore platforms. It is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation. And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables. A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too. Furthermore, the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method. On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode, the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper. Finally the instantaneous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.
基金This work was financially supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Programof China(863Program,Grant No.2001AA602015)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.50578028and No.10721062)the Programfor NewCentury Excellent Talents in University.
文摘Ice load is the dominative load in the design of offshore platforms in the ice zone, and the extreme ice load is the key factor that affects the safety of platforms. The present paper studies the statistical properties of the global resistance and the extreme responses of the jacket platforms in Bahai Bay, considering the randomness of ice load, dead load, steel elastic modulus, yield strength and structural member dimensions. Then, based on the above results, an efficient approximate method of the global reliability analysis for the offshore platforms is proposed, which converts the implicit nonlinear performance function in the conventional reliability analysis to linear explicit one. Finally, numerical examples of JZ20-2 MSW, JZ20-2NW and JZ20-2 MUQ offshore jacket platforms in the Bahai Bay demonstrate the satisfying efficiency, accuracy and applicability of the proposed method.
基金This research project was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 59895410)
文摘In consideration of the fuzzy constraint boundary and through analysis of structural reliability, a model of structural fuzzy optimum design is established based on reliability for offshore jacket platforms. According to the characteristics of offshore jacket platforms, the tolerance coefficient of the constraint boundary is determined with the fuzzy optimization method. The optimum level cut set lambda*, which is the intersection of the fuzzy constraint set and fuzzy objective set, is determined with the bound search method, and then the fuzzy optimum solution to the fuzzy optimization problem is obtained. The central offshore platform SZ36-1 is designed with the fuzzy optimum model based on reliability; the results are compared with those from deterministic optimum design and fuzzy optimum design. The tendency of design variables in the above three methods and its reasons are analyzed. The results of an example show that the fuzzy optimum design based on reliability is stable and reliable.
文摘The target reliability index has been effectively used as the best solution to deal with the relationship between the structural safety and the optimal economy in any structural design. However, the target reliability index for offshore jacket platforms based on different sea areas in China has never been calibrated. This paper presents an approach for its calibration, and suggests many kinds of associated load cases. The uncertainties of loads and structural resistance are mainly in- vestigated. The target reliability index for structural components, tubular joints and piles of offshore jacket plaffortns are discussed respectively in detail. Finally, through the calibrated results from the offshore jacket platforms of QK18-1, JZ20-2, SZ36-1 and BZ28-1 in the Bohai Bay, it is proposed to adopt 2.8 as the target reliability index of offshore jacket platforms in the Bohai Bay for a 25-year design period. The results provide significant reference for the design of offshore jacket platforms.
基金the National High Technology Research and Development Programof China(863 Program,Grant No.2006AA09A109-5)
文摘Owing to the ageing of the existing structures worldwide and the lack of codes for the continued safely management of structures during their lifetime, it is very necessary to develop a tool to evaluate their system reliability over a time interval. In this paper, a method is proposed to analyze system reliability of existing jacket platforms. The influences of dint, crack and corrosion are considered. The mechanics characteristics of the existing jacket platforms to extreme loads are analyzed by use of the nonlinear mechanical analysis. The nonlinear interaction of pile-soil-structure is taken into consideration in the analysis. By use of FEM method and Monte Carlo simulation, the system reliability of the existing jacket platforul can be obtained. The method has been illustrated through application to BZ28-1 three jacket platforms which have operated for sixteen years. Advantages of the proposed method for analyzing the system reliability of the existing jacket platform is also highlighted.
文摘Matrix method is being proposed for qualitative evaluation of the reliability of technical systems on a finite set of structural elements. We are introducing the criteria for qualitative assessment of the reliability in the form of structural reliability of the system as the probability of the troubleproof state of this system and the significancy of the individual elements in ensuring the structural reliability of the system as a general aggregate of conditional probabilities, which compose two (2 × 2) matrices of significancy for each element. We are using chain diagrams for solving the combinatronic problems and matrices for algorithmization of calculating procedures.
基金supported by the Research Project of China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited under Grant 2023YJ252.
文摘Purpose–This paper focuses on studying the reliability allocation for the railway system,aiming to improve the overall reliability of the railway system and ensure safety operation.Design/methodology/approach–In view of the complex structure of the railway system,involving many subsystems,this paper analyzes the close dynamic coupling effect between railway subsystems.Based on this,taking the railway system failure as the top event,a fault tree is constructed in this paper.Then,a reliability allocation method based on the fault tree is employed to allocate the reliability index.Finally,a numerical experiment is implemented to show the performance of the reliability allocation method.Findings–The results showed that each subsystem needs to improve its reliability to meet the specified railway system reliability requirements,and the traction power supply system is the most important subsystem,which is the most efficient in improving the reliability of the railway system.Originality/value–For the first time,starting from a holistic perspective of the system,reliability allocation is carried out based on the importance of each railway subsystem.
基金The National Key R&D Program Projects(Grant No.2022YFC2803601)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant No.ZR2021YQ29)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province(Grant No.YQ2024E036)the Taishan Scholars Project(Grant No.tsqn202312317).
文摘Autonomous Underwater Vehicles(AUVs)are pivotal for deep-sea exploration and resource exploitation,yet their reliability in extreme underwater environments remains a critical barrier to widespread deployment.Through systematic analysis of 150 peer-reviewed studies employing mixed-methods research,this review yields three principal advancements to the reliability analysis of AUVs.First,based on the hierarchical functional division of AUVs into six subsystems(propulsion system,navigation system,communication system,power system,environmental detection system,and emergency system),this study systematically identifies the primary failure modes and potential failure causes of each subsystem,providing theoretical support for fault diagnosis and reliability optimization.Subsequently,a comprehensive review of AUV reliability analysis methods is conducted from three perspectives:analytical methods,simulated methods,and surrogate model methods.The applicability and limitations of each method are critically analyzed to offer insights into their suitability for engineering applications.Finally,the study highlights key challenges and research hotpots in AUV reliability analysis,including reliability analysis under limited data,AI-driven reliability analysis,and human reliability analysis.Furthermore,the potential of multi-sensor data fusion,edge computing,and advanced materials in enhancing AUV environmental adaptability and reliability is explored.
文摘BACKGROUND During the gradual decline of physical and social functioning associated with end-stage renal disease,patients might experience a premonition of impending death,resulting in a series of pre-mourning grief responses called preparatory grief.The preparatory grief in advanced cancer patients(PGAC)scale is the most widely used preparatory grief scale for patients on hemodialysis in China.AIM To verify the reliability and validity of the PGAC scale in patients on hemodialysis.METHODS In total,327 patients undergoing regular hemodialysis in the blood purification center of three grade-A tertiary hospitals in Guangdong and Guizhou provinces were selected by convenience sampling.The assessment was administered using the general information questionnaire and the Chinese version of PGAC.SPSS 25.0 and Amos 24.0 were used for item analysis,confirmatory factor analysis(CFA),convergent validity,and internal consistency reliability estimation.RESULTS In the modified Chinese version of PGAC,7 dimensions covering 27 total items were retained.CFA revealed a good fit of the factor model(chi-square degree of freedom=2.056,standardized root mean square residual=0.0479,root mean square error of approximation=0.0570,GFI=0.872,AGFI=0.841,IFI=0.931,CFI=0.930,TLI=0.919).The factor loadings of the items ranged 0.503-0.884.The composite reliability ranged 0.664-0.914,and the average variance extracted ranged 0.366-0.747.Cronbach’sαof the scale was 0.945,and Cronbach’sαfor various dimensions ranged 0.662-0.914.CONCLUSION The modified PGAC has good reliability and validity,and it can effectively measure preparatory grief in patients on hemodialysis.
