This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method ...This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE-TD). A total of 23 heavy rainfall cases occurring between 2018 and 2021 are selected for analysis. Using Typhoon “Rumbia” as a case study, the paper illustrates how the MODE-TD method assesses the overall simulation capability of models for the life history of precipitation systems. The results of multiple tests with different parameter configurations reveal that the model underestimates the number of objects’ forecasted precipitation tracks, particularly at smaller radii. Additionally, the analysis based on centroid offset and area ratio tests for different classified precipitation objects indicates that the model performs better in predicting large-area, fast-moving, and longlifespan precipitation objects. Conversely, it tends to have less accurate predictions for small-area, slow-moving, and shortlifespan precipitation objects. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model overestimates the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model tends to overestimate the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. Overall, the model provides more accurate predictions for the duration and dissipation of precipitation objects with large-area or long-lifespan(such as typhoon precipitation) while having large prediction errors for precipitation objects with small-area or short-lifespan. Furthermore, the model’s simulation results regarding the generation of precipitation objects show that it performs relatively well in simulating the generation of large-area and fast-moving precipitation objects. However, there are significant differences in the forecasted generation of small-area and slow-moving precipitation objects after 9 hours.展开更多
目的:探讨按疾病诊断相关分组(Diagnosis Related Groups,DRG)支付方式下时间驱动作业成本法在公立医院科室成本管控中的重点应用价值。方法:以广西百色市妇幼保健院作为案例医院,将案例医院的产科医疗项目成本作为研究对象,分析时间驱...目的:探讨按疾病诊断相关分组(Diagnosis Related Groups,DRG)支付方式下时间驱动作业成本法在公立医院科室成本管控中的重点应用价值。方法:以广西百色市妇幼保健院作为案例医院,将案例医院的产科医疗项目成本作为研究对象,分析时间驱动作业成本法在DRG支付方式下的适用性、有效性及潜在问题,为公立医院的成本管理和提升医疗服务质量提供实践经验和理论支持。通过对DRG支付方式下时间驱动作业成本法成本费用管理进行评价分析,总结案例医院产科医保付费模式的改革成果,为提高医院医疗服务质量与降低科室成本费用提供数据支持。结果:在2023年1月—12月间案例医院产科总成本为1268.26万元,其中最高的为人力成本。产科主要医疗服务项目共计16项,其中10项医疗项目盈利,6项亏损,收益率最差的项目是穿刺,其他依次是产科检查、挂号就诊登记、疑难病例会诊、出院护理和术前准备。结论:时间驱动作业成本法作为一种成本管理方法在公立医院中具有广阔的应用前景和实用价值。通过实施DRG支付方式与时间驱动作业成本法相结合的成本管理策略,医院可以有效控制成本、优化资源配置和提高医疗服务质量。展开更多
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFC3000802)National Natural Science Foundation of China (41875059)The Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather (2021LASW-A04)。
文摘This study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of heavy precipitation forecasts in eastern China from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) using the time-domain version of the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation(MODE-TD). A total of 23 heavy rainfall cases occurring between 2018 and 2021 are selected for analysis. Using Typhoon “Rumbia” as a case study, the paper illustrates how the MODE-TD method assesses the overall simulation capability of models for the life history of precipitation systems. The results of multiple tests with different parameter configurations reveal that the model underestimates the number of objects’ forecasted precipitation tracks, particularly at smaller radii. Additionally, the analysis based on centroid offset and area ratio tests for different classified precipitation objects indicates that the model performs better in predicting large-area, fast-moving, and longlifespan precipitation objects. Conversely, it tends to have less accurate predictions for small-area, slow-moving, and shortlifespan precipitation objects. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model overestimates the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. In terms of temporal characteristics, the model tends to overestimate the forecasted movement speed for precipitation objects with small-area, slow movement, or both long and short lifespans while underestimating it for precipitation with fast movement. Overall, the model provides more accurate predictions for the duration and dissipation of precipitation objects with large-area or long-lifespan(such as typhoon precipitation) while having large prediction errors for precipitation objects with small-area or short-lifespan. Furthermore, the model’s simulation results regarding the generation of precipitation objects show that it performs relatively well in simulating the generation of large-area and fast-moving precipitation objects. However, there are significant differences in the forecasted generation of small-area and slow-moving precipitation objects after 9 hours.
文摘目的:探讨按疾病诊断相关分组(Diagnosis Related Groups,DRG)支付方式下时间驱动作业成本法在公立医院科室成本管控中的重点应用价值。方法:以广西百色市妇幼保健院作为案例医院,将案例医院的产科医疗项目成本作为研究对象,分析时间驱动作业成本法在DRG支付方式下的适用性、有效性及潜在问题,为公立医院的成本管理和提升医疗服务质量提供实践经验和理论支持。通过对DRG支付方式下时间驱动作业成本法成本费用管理进行评价分析,总结案例医院产科医保付费模式的改革成果,为提高医院医疗服务质量与降低科室成本费用提供数据支持。结果:在2023年1月—12月间案例医院产科总成本为1268.26万元,其中最高的为人力成本。产科主要医疗服务项目共计16项,其中10项医疗项目盈利,6项亏损,收益率最差的项目是穿刺,其他依次是产科检查、挂号就诊登记、疑难病例会诊、出院护理和术前准备。结论:时间驱动作业成本法作为一种成本管理方法在公立医院中具有广阔的应用前景和实用价值。通过实施DRG支付方式与时间驱动作业成本法相结合的成本管理策略,医院可以有效控制成本、优化资源配置和提高医疗服务质量。
