Given the existence of real estate market bubbles and risks arising from high government debt,countries are faced with the challenge of preventing systemic risks.This study investigates the macroeconomic dynamics of t...Given the existence of real estate market bubbles and risks arising from high government debt,countries are faced with the challenge of preventing systemic risks.This study investigates the macroeconomic dynamics of the real estate market and local government debt risk from the perspective of liquidity constraints.We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with real estate and local government debt risk based on the New Keynesian-Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model(NK-DSGE)model to investigate the transmission path of local government debt risk under real estate regulation.In addition,we analyze the risk transmission between the real estate market and local government under different tax systems and investigate the shock to household welfare from a local government debt default.The results show monetary policy can effectively control the scale of local government debt to reduce default risk.An increase in property taxes that restrains housing demand can effectively regulate the real estate market.Although reducing taxes can increase macroeconomic output,reducing tax rates on consumption,capital,and labor weakens the liquidity of household assets.Further,lowering taxes increases local government default risk,which reduces household welfare and makes it more difficult for local governments to deleverage.Our findings provide important insights for countries seeking an effective real estate regulation mechanism to curb local government default risk.展开更多
China steps up a clampdown on the financing vehicles of local governments control over local governments’ financing vehicles will be tightened to fend off what some economists warn could turn into a
Local governments in China, barred from directly selling bonds and taking out bank loans, have set up thousands of financing vehicles to raise money to fund infrastructure projects. A first-ever audit found that these...Local governments in China, barred from directly selling bonds and taking out bank loans, have set up thousands of financing vehicles to raise money to fund infrastructure projects. A first-ever audit found that these local government financing vehicles have accumulated a record breaking debt of 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion).But there’s no need to panic over this debt, said Xu Lin, Director of the Department of Fiscal and Financial Affairs of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), in a question-andanswer statement posted on the NDRC’s website on August 29.Edited excerpts follow:展开更多
Local governments’ reliance on borrowed money to spur economic development ignites worries Recently proposed Ministry of Finance measures to supervise the financing platforms of local governments and to regulate and ...Local governments’ reliance on borrowed money to spur economic development ignites worries Recently proposed Ministry of Finance measures to supervise the financing platforms of local governments and to regulate and avert risks in managing local debts have met with展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.72271135,72141304,71901130)National Social Science Fund of China(22&ZD117)+3 种基金Laboratory of Computation and Analytics of Complex Management Systems(Tianjin University)Special Funds for Taishan Scholars(tsqn202211120)2024 Qingdao Finance Society Key Project2024 Qingdao Social Science Planning Project.
文摘Given the existence of real estate market bubbles and risks arising from high government debt,countries are faced with the challenge of preventing systemic risks.This study investigates the macroeconomic dynamics of the real estate market and local government debt risk from the perspective of liquidity constraints.We build a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with real estate and local government debt risk based on the New Keynesian-Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model(NK-DSGE)model to investigate the transmission path of local government debt risk under real estate regulation.In addition,we analyze the risk transmission between the real estate market and local government under different tax systems and investigate the shock to household welfare from a local government debt default.The results show monetary policy can effectively control the scale of local government debt to reduce default risk.An increase in property taxes that restrains housing demand can effectively regulate the real estate market.Although reducing taxes can increase macroeconomic output,reducing tax rates on consumption,capital,and labor weakens the liquidity of household assets.Further,lowering taxes increases local government default risk,which reduces household welfare and makes it more difficult for local governments to deleverage.Our findings provide important insights for countries seeking an effective real estate regulation mechanism to curb local government default risk.
文摘China steps up a clampdown on the financing vehicles of local governments control over local governments’ financing vehicles will be tightened to fend off what some economists warn could turn into a
文摘Local governments in China, barred from directly selling bonds and taking out bank loans, have set up thousands of financing vehicles to raise money to fund infrastructure projects. A first-ever audit found that these local government financing vehicles have accumulated a record breaking debt of 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.7 trillion).But there’s no need to panic over this debt, said Xu Lin, Director of the Department of Fiscal and Financial Affairs of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), in a question-andanswer statement posted on the NDRC’s website on August 29.Edited excerpts follow:
文摘Local governments’ reliance on borrowed money to spur economic development ignites worries Recently proposed Ministry of Finance measures to supervise the financing platforms of local governments and to regulate and avert risks in managing local debts have met with
