In 2019,China had over 13.14 million dementia cases,with incidence rates of(56.47–207.08)/100,000[1].Early cognitive impairment—a key dementia symptom—reduces quality of life,increases care dependence,and lowers su...In 2019,China had over 13.14 million dementia cases,with incidence rates of(56.47–207.08)/100,000[1].Early cognitive impairment—a key dementia symptom—reduces quality of life,increases care dependence,and lowers survival in older adults[2].A decline in physical function can also be observed in older adults with increasing age.Grip strength has been shown to be a marker of overall physiological function in older adults.展开更多
The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of ...The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.展开更多
A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model,version 2.0.1.The approach averages the deterministic predictions...A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model,version 2.0.1.The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most recent model run and from earlier runs,all at the same forecast valid time.This lagged average forecast （LAF） method assigns equal weight to each ensemble member and produces a forecast by taking the ensemble mean.Our analyses of the Equitable Threat Score,the Hanssen and Kuipers Score,and the frequency bias indicate that the LAF using five members at time-lagged intervals of 6 h improves 6-15 day forecasts of precipitation frequency above 1 mm d-1 and 5 mm d-1 in many regions of China,and is more effective than the LAF method with selection of the time-lagged interval of 12 or 24 h between ensemble members.In particular,significant improvements are seen over regions where the frequencies of rainfall days are higher than about 40％-50％ in the summer season; these regions include northeastern and central to southern China,and the southeastem Tibetan Plateau.展开更多
Based on the theory of concrete structure, a new expression was derived for lagged strain of fiber-reinforced polymer （FLIP） laminates in reinforced concrete （RC） beams strengthened with FRP. The influence of diff...Based on the theory of concrete structure, a new expression was derived for lagged strain of fiber-reinforced polymer （FLIP） laminates in reinforced concrete （RC） beams strengthened with FRP. The influence of different preloaded states and nonlinear stress-strain relationship of compressed concrete were both taken into account in this approach. Then a simplified expression was given by ignoring tensile resistance of concrete. Comparison of analytical predictions with experimental results indicates satisfactory accuracy of the procedures. The errors are less than 8% and 10% respectively when the tensile resistance of concrete is or not considered. While the maximum error of existing procedures is up to 60%.展开更多
Fluorescence-based maximal photochemical efficiency, Fv/Fm, is widely used as an indicator to photosynthetic competence in marine systems. It has been considered a useful parameter diagnosing the nutrient stress on ph...Fluorescence-based maximal photochemical efficiency, Fv/Fm, is widely used as an indicator to photosynthetic competence in marine systems. It has been considered a useful parameter diagnosing the nutrient stress on phytoplankton photosynthesis, but many studies argue its usefulness. In the present study, we try to find a temporal relationship between Fv/Fm and nitrogen concentration, and provide a possible explanation on the controversy. We continuously measured Fv/Fm and nitrogen concentration once every 10 days from September 2003 to March 2004 at two stations in Jiaozhou Bay, northern China. It was found that Fv/ffm did not significantly correlate to synchronous nitrogen concentration, but the variation （i.e. the change between two adjacent cruises） of nitrogen concentration of the previous cruise and the variation ofFv/Fm of the current cruise were strongly correlated. This result indicates that a time lag exists between the variation of nutrient status and the subsequent Fv/Fm response. Length of the time lag seems just matched the interval of our measurements （10 days）. In the field, direct dependence of Fv/Fm on nitrogen concentration may not be found because of the lagged response of Fv/Fm to nitrogen concentration variations or physiological acclimation. Our results provide a possible way to explain the previously reported conflicting results on the relationship between Fv/Fm and nutrient status. To give a more-accurate estimate about the length of the time lag, an investigation that includes more frequent measurements is needed.展开更多
Aims The plasticity of ecosystem responses could buffer and post-pone the effects of climates on ecosystem carbon fluxes,but this lagged effect is often ignored.In this study,we used carbon flux data collected from th...Aims The plasticity of ecosystem responses could buffer and post-pone the effects of climates on ecosystem carbon fluxes,but this lagged effect is often ignored.In this study,we used carbon flux data collected from three typical grassland ecosystems in China,including a temperate semiarid steppe in Inner mongolia(Neimeng site,Nm),an alpine shrub-meadow in Qinghai(Haibei site,Hb)and an alpine meadow steppe in Tibet(Dangxiong site,DX),to examine the time lagged effects of environmental factors on CO_(2) exchange.Methods Eddy covariance data were collected from three typical Chinese grasslands.In linking carbon fluxes with climatic factors,we used their averages or cumulative values within each 12-month period and we called them‘yearly’statistics in this study.To investigate the lagged effects of the climatic factors on the car-bon fluxes,the climatic‘yearly’statistics were kept still and the‘yearly’statistics of the carbon fluxes were shifted backward 1 month at a time.Important Findingssoil moisture and precipitation was the main factor driving the annual variations of carbon fluxes at the alpine Hb and DX,respectively,while the Nm site was under a synthetic impact of each climatic factor.The time lagged effect analysis showed that temperature had several months,even half a year lag effects on Co2 exchange at the three studied sites,while moisture’s effects were mostly exhibited as an immediate manner,except at Nm.In general,the lagged climatic effects were relatively weak for the alpine ecosystem.our results implied that it might be months or even 1 year before the variations of ecosystem carbon fluxes are adjusted to the current climate,so such lag effects could be resistant to more frequent climate extremes and should be a critical component to be considered in evaluating ecosystem stability.an improved knowledge on the lag effects could advance our understanding on the driving mechanisms of climate change effects on ecosystem carbon fluxes.展开更多
The Qinba Mountains are climatically and ecologically recognized as the north-south transitional zone of China.Analysis of its phenology is critical for comprehending the response of vegetation to climatic change.We r...The Qinba Mountains are climatically and ecologically recognized as the north-south transitional zone of China.Analysis of its phenology is critical for comprehending the response of vegetation to climatic change.We retrieved the start of spring phenology(SOS)of eight forest communities from the MODIS products and adopted it as an indicator for spring phenology.Trend analysis,partial correlation analysis,and GeoDetector were employed to reveal the spatio-temporal patterns and climatic drivers of SOS.The results indicated that the SOS presented an advance trend from 2001 to 2020,with a mean rate of−0.473 d yr^(−1).The SOS of most forests correlated negatively with air temperature(TEMP)and positively with precipitation(PRE),suggesting that rising TEMP and increasing PRE in spring would forward and delay SOS,respectively.The dominant factors influencing the sensitivity of SOS to climatic variables were altitude,forest type,and latitude,while the effects of slope and aspect were relatively minor.The response of SOS to climatic factors varied significantly in space and among forest communities,partly due to the influence of altitude,slope,and aspect.展开更多
Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts ...Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts and their lag time from meteorological droughts at a daily scale.In this study,precipitation data were collected to calculate the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and runoff data simulated by the variable infiltration capacity(VIC)model were utilized to compute the standardized runoff index(SRI).The three-threshold run theory was used to identify drought characteristics in China.These drought characteristics were utilized to investigate spatiotemporal variations,seasonal trends,and temporal changes in areas affected by meteorological and hydrological droughts.Additionally,the interconnections and lag effects between meteorological and hydrological droughts were explored.The results indicated that(1)drought occurred during approximately 28%of the past 34 years in China;(2)drought conditions tended to worsen in autumn and weaken in winter;(3)drought-affected areas shifted from northwest to northeast and finally to southern China;and(4)the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts was lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast,with all correlation coefficients exceeding 0.7.The lag times between meteorological and hydrological droughts were longest(5 d)in the Yangtze River,Yellow River,and Hai River basins,and shortest(0 d)in the Tarim River Basin.This study provides a scientific basis for effective early warning of droughts.展开更多
Dynamic disturbances certainly reduce shear strength of rock joints,yet the mechanism needs deeper explanation.We investigate the shear behavior of a rough basalt joint by conducting laboratory shear experiments.Const...Dynamic disturbances certainly reduce shear strength of rock joints,yet the mechanism needs deeper explanation.We investigate the shear behavior of a rough basalt joint by conducting laboratory shear experiments.Constant and superimposed oscillating normal loads are applied at the upper block.Meanwhile,the bottom block moves at a constant shear rate.We investigate the shear behavior by:1)altering the normal load oscillation frequency with a same shear rate,2)altering the shear rate with a same normal load oscillation frequency,and 3)altering the normal load oscillation frequency and shear rate simultaneously with a constant ratio.The results show that the oscillating normal load reduces the coefficient of friction(COF).The reduce degree of COF increases with higher shear rate,decreases when increasing normal load oscillation frequency,and keeps constant if the special ratio,v/f(shear rate divided by normal oscillation frequency),is constant.Moreover,we identify a time lag between peak normal load and peak shear load.And the lagging proportion increases with higher shear rate,and decreases with larger static COF.Our results imply that a lower creep rate with a higher normal load oscillation frequency easily destabilizes the creeping fault zones.展开更多
Purpose:The study examines the synergy and hysteresis in the evolution of funding and its supported literature,depicts their temporal correlation mechanism,which aids in improving trend predictions.Design/methodology/...Purpose:The study examines the synergy and hysteresis in the evolution of funding and its supported literature,depicts their temporal correlation mechanism,which aids in improving trend predictions.Design/methodology/approach:The study uses the LDA model to identify topics in funding texts and supported papers.A cosine similarity algorithm was employed to estimate the nexus between topics and construct the topic evolution time series.Similarly,the hysteresis effect in topic evolution is analyzed based on topic popularity and content,leading to insights into their temporal correlation mechanism.Findings:The study finds that fund and sponsored paper topics exhibit strong collaboration with a noticeable lag in evolution.The fund topics significantly influence sponsored paper topics after a two-year lag.Moreover,the lag effect is inversely proportional to the topic’s similarity.Research limitations:We use the LDA model to determine the hysteresis effect in topic evolution despite its limitations in handling long-tail words and domain-specific vocabulary.Furthermore,the timing of the emergence of the focal topic in funds is undermined,affecting the findings.Practical implications:These findings enhance the accuracy and scientific validity of trend prediction.Estimating and identifying patterns can help technology managers anticipate future research hotspots,supporting informed decision-making and technology management.Originality/value:This study introduces a research framework to quantitatively and visually analyze the hysteresis effect,revealing the correlation and evolutionary patterns between fund research topics and their funded papers.展开更多
This paper propose a comprehensive data-driven prediction framework based on machine learning methods to investigate the lag synchronization phenomenon in coupled chaotic systems,particularly in cases where accurate m...This paper propose a comprehensive data-driven prediction framework based on machine learning methods to investigate the lag synchronization phenomenon in coupled chaotic systems,particularly in cases where accurate mathematical models are challenging to establish or where system equations remain unknown.The Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)neural network is trained using time series acquired from the desynchronization system states,subsequently predicting the lag synchronization transition.In the experiments,we focus on the Lorenz system with time-varying delayed coupling,studying the effects of coupling coefficients and time delays on lag synchronization,respectively.The results indicate that with appropriate training,the machine learning model can adeptly predict the lag synchronization occurrence and transition.This study not only enhances our comprehension of complex network synchronization behaviors but also underscores the potential and practical applications of machine learning in exploring nonlinear dynamic systems.展开更多
Climate change may have detrimental effects on different sectoral growth in global economy and according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,the impacts of climate change will be more vigorous in the comi...Climate change may have detrimental effects on different sectoral growth in global economy and according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,the impacts of climate change will be more vigorous in the coming years.The climatic and non-climatic driving forces behind the economic sectoral performances involve short-and long-run interconnections among variables.This study attempts to investigate the effect of climatic factors(temperature and precipitation)along with non-climatic factors,including foreign direct investment(FDI),human capital index(HCI),natural capital(NC),and information and communication technology(ICT)on three major sectors of the economy(agricultural sector,industrial sector,and service sector)through non-linear model framework by employing cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag(CS-ARDL)estimation technique.It considers a panel of 56 selected countries from different income groups,including high-income countries,upper-middle-income countries,lower-middle-income countries,and low-income countries,covering the period 1985-2022.The confirmation of slope heterogeneity,cross-sectional dependence,stationarity,and cointegration among variables lends support to the robustness of results.The augmented mean group(AMG)robustness test was applied to check robustness and the results were found mostly consistent with estimation method.The results revealed that upper-middle-income countries are more vulnerable to extreme temperatures compared to high-income countries.The results also confirmed an inverted U-shaped relationship between each sector’s output and precipitation in upper-middle-income countries.In contrast,for upper-middle-income,lower-middle-income,and low-income countries,this relation exists in industrial sector only in long run.This indicates that precipitation is initially beneficial for production activities.However,beyond a certain threshold of precipitation,this trend reverses,i.e.,the output of the economic sectors tends to decline.Furthermore,there is no supporting evidence that confirms a short-run non-linear relation between precipitation and agricultural yields.In upper-middle-income countries,the results confirmed that FDI is a driving factor behind both agricultural sector and service sector in long run while short-run results indicated a negative association but insignificant.This study also showed that in long run,an increase in HCI contributes to improving the output of the three sectors for high-income countries.The empirical findings provide valuable insights for policy-makers and governments to formulate coherent adaptation and mitigation strategies,thereby accelerating the transition of sectoral productivity from low to high levels in the sample countries.展开更多
The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination ...The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination tracker dashboard. GIS-based exploratory analysis was conducted to select four variables (poverty, black race, population density, and vaccination) to explain COVID-19 occurrence during the study period. Consequently, spatial statistical techniques such as Moran’s I, Hot Spot Analysis, Spatial Lag Model (SLM), and Spatial Error Model (SEM) were used to explain the COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate across the 88 counties in Ohio. The result of the Local Moran’s I analysis reveals that the epicenters of COVID-19 and vaccination followed the same patterns. Indeed, counties like Summit, Franklin, Fairfield, Hamilton, and Medina were categorized as epicenters for both COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate. The SEM seems to be the best model for both COVID-19 and vaccination rates, with R2 values of 0.68 and 0.70, respectively. The GWR analysis proves to be better than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and the distribution of R2 in the GWR is uneven throughout the study area for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. Some counties have a high R2 of up to 0.70 for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. The outcomes of the regression analyses show that the SEM models can explain 68% - 70% of COVID-19 cases and vaccination across the entire counties within the study period. COVID-19 cases and vaccination rates exhibited significant positive associations with black race and poverty throughout the study area.展开更多
1-12 month lagged correlations between winter temperatures at 22 stations in China and the global dis- tribution of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation(OLR)are investigated.The basic results are:(1)The monthly averaged te...1-12 month lagged correlations between winter temperatures at 22 stations in China and the global dis- tribution of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation(OLR)are investigated.The basic results are:(1)The monthly averaged temperatures of Dec.,Jan.and Feb.of China are correlated to the global distribution of OLR of Oct.,Nov.and Dec.,respectively.It is consistent with the response period(about 50 days)of 500 hPa geopotential height field in extratropical latitudes to the thermal forcing in tropical latitudes,and also consis- tent with the Walker cell of a 40-60 day oscillation.(2)There is a significant positive correlation between the winter temperature of the most part of China and the OLR in the Gulf of Mexico.It shows that when the thermal forcing of the Gulf of Mexico is stronger,the excited barotropic instability of westerlies in northern Atlantic could influence the East Asian circulation and cause the temperature of China to be below normal. (3)The temperature around the Tibetan(Xizang)Plateau is negatively correlated to the OLR in western equa- torial Pacific,showing that when the Walker cell is stronger,the local Hadley cell in Southeast Asia is stronger and it causes the temperature around the Tibetan Plateau to be higher than normal.展开更多
A comprehensive understanding of the dynamic frictional characteristics in rock joints under high normal load and strong confinement is essential for ensuring the safety of deep engineering construction and mitigating...A comprehensive understanding of the dynamic frictional characteristics in rock joints under high normal load and strong confinement is essential for ensuring the safety of deep engineering construction and mitigating geological disasters.This study conducted shear experiments on rough rock joints under displacement-controlled dynamic normal loads,investigating the shear behaviors of joints across varying initial normal loads,normal loading frequencies,and normal loading amplitudes.Experimental results showed that the peak/valley shear force values increased with initial normal loads and normal loading frequencies but showed an initial increase followed by a decrease with normal loading amplitudes.Dynamic normal loading can either increase or decrease shear strength,while this study demonstrates that higher frequencies lead to enhanced friction.Increased initial normal loading and normal loading frequency result in a gradual decrease in joint roughness coefficient(JRC)values of joint surfaces after shearing.Positive correlations existed between frictional energy dissipation and peak shear forces,while post-shear joint surface roughness exhibited a negative correlation with peak shear forces through linear regression analysis.This study contributes to a better understanding of the sliding responses and shear mechanical characteristics of rock joints under dynamic disturbances.展开更多
The temperature change and rate of CO2 change are correlated with a time lag, as reported in a previous paper. The correlation was investigated by calculating a correlation coefficient r of these changes for selected ...The temperature change and rate of CO2 change are correlated with a time lag, as reported in a previous paper. The correlation was investigated by calculating a correlation coefficient r of these changes for selected ENSO events in this study. Annual periodical increases and decreases in the CO2 concentration were considered, with a regular pattern of minimum values in August and maximum values in May each year. An increased deviation in CO2 and temperature was found in response to the occurrence of El Niño, but the increase in CO2 lagged behind the change in temperature by 5 months. This pattern was not observed for La Niña events. An increase in global CO2 emissions and a subsequent increase in global temperature proposed by IPCC were not observed, but an increase in global temperature, an increase in soil respiration, and a subsequent increase in global CO2 emissions were noticed. This natural process can be clearly detected during periods of increasing temperature specifically during El Niño events. The results cast strong doubts that anthropogenic CO2 is the cause of global warming.展开更多
Baseflow is one of the major pathways of runoff in hilly areas,and its contributions to surface water resources and pollutant loads cannot be ignored.In this study,based on water quantity and quality data from 1988 to...Baseflow is one of the major pathways of runoff in hilly areas,and its contributions to surface water resources and pollutant loads cannot be ignored.In this study,based on water quantity and quality data from 1988 to 2019 in hilly and low rainfall watersheds,we focused on the impact of long-term baseflow on nitrogen load using the load allocation based on the baseflow separation method.We also constructed a nitrogen balance model for the Chaohe River Basin of China from 2012 to 2021 to analyze the nitrogen accumulation in the basin.We used the baseflow nitrogen load lag analysis method to study the lag characteristics of the baseflow discharge process and analyzed the response and periodicity of baseflow nitrogen to precipitation and soil accumulation using time delay analysis.The res-ults showed that the contribution rate of baseflow nitrogen reached 69%and showed a slight increasing trend from 1988 to 2019.The ef-fects of changes in precipitation and nitrogen accumulation on the baseflow contribution was observed after 1-2 and 2 yr,respectively.After nitrogen accumulation,it entered the river channel through baseflow,which was already the main and continuous source of nitro-gen in rivers in hilly areas.展开更多
Protected areas(PA)have proven to be one of the best ways to conserve biodiversity against environmental changes.Amphibians are considered the most threatened group,with habitat loss due to deforestation identified as...Protected areas(PA)have proven to be one of the best ways to conserve biodiversity against environmental changes.Amphibians are considered the most threatened group,with habitat loss due to deforestation identified as their major threat.Here,we assessed for each PA of the American continent:1)amphibian’s occurrence(Global Biodiversity Information Facility(GBIF)vs.International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN)data);2)temperature velocity and estimated the climate residence time,and using the latest models of the land future use;3)we estimated the changes of natural vs.modified cover in three future scenarios.Amphibian occurrence showed differences between databases,while GBIF data shows that 52%of the amphibian species occurring in the continent are in PA,based on IUCN data,85%are protected.Results from climate change show a low pace of climate velocity during the last century that is maintained in the green scenario(SSP126).However,change in temperature increases in rate in the rest of the scenarios,with scenario SSP58 showing the highest velocity of temperature change.Future estimates of residence times in PA show that lower levels as emission scenarios tend to be higher.These results are worrisome since climate lag,specifically temperature increase over the PA will probably affect amphibian communities as shown in previous studies.Changes in climate patterns have a direct—mostly negative—impact on amphibians’ability to disperse and reproduce.The results of land use change were unexpected,since the categories showed minimal changes.However,the data on urbanization changes do not seem to be reflecting the trends of other databases,which may be causing artifacts in the comparisons in the future models of land use.Further research will be necessary to evaluate the extent of similarities and differences in future projections of land use including urbanization and human population between different databases.展开更多
基金supported by the Shanghai New Three-year Action Plan for Public Health(Grant No.GWV-10.1-XK16)the US National Institute on Aging(RO1-AGO34479).
文摘In 2019,China had over 13.14 million dementia cases,with incidence rates of(56.47–207.08)/100,000[1].Early cognitive impairment—a key dementia symptom—reduces quality of life,increases care dependence,and lowers survival in older adults[2].A decline in physical function can also be observed in older adults with increasing age.Grip strength has been shown to be a marker of overall physiological function in older adults.
基金supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science(Nos.2022YFF0801702 and 2022YFE0106600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42175060 and 42175021)the Jiangsu Province Science Foundation(No.BK20250200302).
文摘The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program: Grant No. 2010CB951902)the Special Program for China Meteorology Trade (Grant No. GYHY201306020)the Technology Support Program of China (Grant No. 2009BAC51B03)
文摘A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model,version 2.0.1.The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most recent model run and from earlier runs,all at the same forecast valid time.This lagged average forecast （LAF） method assigns equal weight to each ensemble member and produces a forecast by taking the ensemble mean.Our analyses of the Equitable Threat Score,the Hanssen and Kuipers Score,and the frequency bias indicate that the LAF using five members at time-lagged intervals of 6 h improves 6-15 day forecasts of precipitation frequency above 1 mm d-1 and 5 mm d-1 in many regions of China,and is more effective than the LAF method with selection of the time-lagged interval of 12 or 24 h between ensemble members.In particular,significant improvements are seen over regions where the frequencies of rainfall days are higher than about 40％-50％ in the summer season; these regions include northeastern and central to southern China,and the southeastem Tibetan Plateau.
基金Project(2002G043) supported by the Science & Technology Research Program of Chinese Railway MinistryProject (05JJ30101)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China
文摘Based on the theory of concrete structure, a new expression was derived for lagged strain of fiber-reinforced polymer （FLIP） laminates in reinforced concrete （RC） beams strengthened with FRP. The influence of different preloaded states and nonlinear stress-strain relationship of compressed concrete were both taken into account in this approach. Then a simplified expression was given by ignoring tensile resistance of concrete. Comparison of analytical predictions with experimental results indicates satisfactory accuracy of the procedures. The errors are less than 8% and 10% respectively when the tensile resistance of concrete is or not considered. While the maximum error of existing procedures is up to 60%.
基金Supported by the Public Science and Technology Research Funds of Ocean(No.200905019)the Science Foundation of Young Scientist,SOA(No.2011129)+1 种基金the Outstanding Young & Middle Scientist of Shandong Province(No.BS2010HZ018)the Taishan Scholar Fund of Aquatic Animal Nutrition and Feed to ZHANG Limin
文摘Fluorescence-based maximal photochemical efficiency, Fv/Fm, is widely used as an indicator to photosynthetic competence in marine systems. It has been considered a useful parameter diagnosing the nutrient stress on phytoplankton photosynthesis, but many studies argue its usefulness. In the present study, we try to find a temporal relationship between Fv/Fm and nitrogen concentration, and provide a possible explanation on the controversy. We continuously measured Fv/Fm and nitrogen concentration once every 10 days from September 2003 to March 2004 at two stations in Jiaozhou Bay, northern China. It was found that Fv/ffm did not significantly correlate to synchronous nitrogen concentration, but the variation （i.e. the change between two adjacent cruises） of nitrogen concentration of the previous cruise and the variation ofFv/Fm of the current cruise were strongly correlated. This result indicates that a time lag exists between the variation of nutrient status and the subsequent Fv/Fm response. Length of the time lag seems just matched the interval of our measurements （10 days）. In the field, direct dependence of Fv/Fm on nitrogen concentration may not be found because of the lagged response of Fv/Fm to nitrogen concentration variations or physiological acclimation. Our results provide a possible way to explain the previously reported conflicting results on the relationship between Fv/Fm and nutrient status. To give a more-accurate estimate about the length of the time lag, an investigation that includes more frequent measurements is needed.
基金This work was supported by the 973 Program(2013CB956302)of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China,and One Hundred Talent Plan,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘Aims The plasticity of ecosystem responses could buffer and post-pone the effects of climates on ecosystem carbon fluxes,but this lagged effect is often ignored.In this study,we used carbon flux data collected from three typical grassland ecosystems in China,including a temperate semiarid steppe in Inner mongolia(Neimeng site,Nm),an alpine shrub-meadow in Qinghai(Haibei site,Hb)and an alpine meadow steppe in Tibet(Dangxiong site,DX),to examine the time lagged effects of environmental factors on CO_(2) exchange.Methods Eddy covariance data were collected from three typical Chinese grasslands.In linking carbon fluxes with climatic factors,we used their averages or cumulative values within each 12-month period and we called them‘yearly’statistics in this study.To investigate the lagged effects of the climatic factors on the car-bon fluxes,the climatic‘yearly’statistics were kept still and the‘yearly’statistics of the carbon fluxes were shifted backward 1 month at a time.Important Findingssoil moisture and precipitation was the main factor driving the annual variations of carbon fluxes at the alpine Hb and DX,respectively,while the Nm site was under a synthetic impact of each climatic factor.The time lagged effect analysis showed that temperature had several months,even half a year lag effects on Co2 exchange at the three studied sites,while moisture’s effects were mostly exhibited as an immediate manner,except at Nm.In general,the lagged climatic effects were relatively weak for the alpine ecosystem.our results implied that it might be months or even 1 year before the variations of ecosystem carbon fluxes are adjusted to the current climate,so such lag effects could be resistant to more frequent climate extremes and should be a critical component to be considered in evaluating ecosystem stability.an improved knowledge on the lag effects could advance our understanding on the driving mechanisms of climate change effects on ecosystem carbon fluxes.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2023YFE0208100,No.2021YFC3000201Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province,No.232300420165。
文摘The Qinba Mountains are climatically and ecologically recognized as the north-south transitional zone of China.Analysis of its phenology is critical for comprehending the response of vegetation to climatic change.We retrieved the start of spring phenology(SOS)of eight forest communities from the MODIS products and adopted it as an indicator for spring phenology.Trend analysis,partial correlation analysis,and GeoDetector were employed to reveal the spatio-temporal patterns and climatic drivers of SOS.The results indicated that the SOS presented an advance trend from 2001 to 2020,with a mean rate of−0.473 d yr^(−1).The SOS of most forests correlated negatively with air temperature(TEMP)and positively with precipitation(PRE),suggesting that rising TEMP and increasing PRE in spring would forward and delay SOS,respectively.The dominant factors influencing the sensitivity of SOS to climatic variables were altitude,forest type,and latitude,while the effects of slope and aspect were relatively minor.The response of SOS to climatic factors varied significantly in space and among forest communities,partly due to the influence of altitude,slope,and aspect.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFC3006505)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(Grant No.B240203007)the National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention(Grant No.524015222)。
文摘Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts and their lag time from meteorological droughts at a daily scale.In this study,precipitation data were collected to calculate the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and runoff data simulated by the variable infiltration capacity(VIC)model were utilized to compute the standardized runoff index(SRI).The three-threshold run theory was used to identify drought characteristics in China.These drought characteristics were utilized to investigate spatiotemporal variations,seasonal trends,and temporal changes in areas affected by meteorological and hydrological droughts.Additionally,the interconnections and lag effects between meteorological and hydrological droughts were explored.The results indicated that(1)drought occurred during approximately 28%of the past 34 years in China;(2)drought conditions tended to worsen in autumn and weaken in winter;(3)drought-affected areas shifted from northwest to northeast and finally to southern China;and(4)the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts was lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast,with all correlation coefficients exceeding 0.7.The lag times between meteorological and hydrological droughts were longest(5 d)in the Yangtze River,Yellow River,and Hai River basins,and shortest(0 d)in the Tarim River Basin.This study provides a scientific basis for effective early warning of droughts.
基金Project(52474122)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(HSR202105)supported by the National Engineering Laboratory for High-speed Railway Construction,China+1 种基金Project(2025B1515020067)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of ChinaProject(2022A1515240009)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China。
文摘Dynamic disturbances certainly reduce shear strength of rock joints,yet the mechanism needs deeper explanation.We investigate the shear behavior of a rough basalt joint by conducting laboratory shear experiments.Constant and superimposed oscillating normal loads are applied at the upper block.Meanwhile,the bottom block moves at a constant shear rate.We investigate the shear behavior by:1)altering the normal load oscillation frequency with a same shear rate,2)altering the shear rate with a same normal load oscillation frequency,and 3)altering the normal load oscillation frequency and shear rate simultaneously with a constant ratio.The results show that the oscillating normal load reduces the coefficient of friction(COF).The reduce degree of COF increases with higher shear rate,decreases when increasing normal load oscillation frequency,and keeps constant if the special ratio,v/f(shear rate divided by normal oscillation frequency),is constant.Moreover,we identify a time lag between peak normal load and peak shear load.And the lagging proportion increases with higher shear rate,and decreases with larger static COF.Our results imply that a lower creep rate with a higher normal load oscillation frequency easily destabilizes the creeping fault zones.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72104110 No.72274113)Basic Science(Natural Science)Research Projects in Higher Education Institutions in Jiangsu Province(No.22KJB630011)+2 种基金General Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research in Jiangsu Universities(No.2022SJYB0253)Taishan Scholar Foundation of Shandong province of China(tsqn202103069)Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(No.ZR202111130115)。
文摘Purpose:The study examines the synergy and hysteresis in the evolution of funding and its supported literature,depicts their temporal correlation mechanism,which aids in improving trend predictions.Design/methodology/approach:The study uses the LDA model to identify topics in funding texts and supported papers.A cosine similarity algorithm was employed to estimate the nexus between topics and construct the topic evolution time series.Similarly,the hysteresis effect in topic evolution is analyzed based on topic popularity and content,leading to insights into their temporal correlation mechanism.Findings:The study finds that fund and sponsored paper topics exhibit strong collaboration with a noticeable lag in evolution.The fund topics significantly influence sponsored paper topics after a two-year lag.Moreover,the lag effect is inversely proportional to the topic’s similarity.Research limitations:We use the LDA model to determine the hysteresis effect in topic evolution despite its limitations in handling long-tail words and domain-specific vocabulary.Furthermore,the timing of the emergence of the focal topic in funds is undermined,affecting the findings.Practical implications:These findings enhance the accuracy and scientific validity of trend prediction.Estimating and identifying patterns can help technology managers anticipate future research hotspots,supporting informed decision-making and technology management.Originality/value:This study introduces a research framework to quantitatively and visually analyze the hysteresis effect,revealing the correlation and evolutionary patterns between fund research topics and their funded papers.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52174184)。
文摘This paper propose a comprehensive data-driven prediction framework based on machine learning methods to investigate the lag synchronization phenomenon in coupled chaotic systems,particularly in cases where accurate mathematical models are challenging to establish or where system equations remain unknown.The Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)neural network is trained using time series acquired from the desynchronization system states,subsequently predicting the lag synchronization transition.In the experiments,we focus on the Lorenz system with time-varying delayed coupling,studying the effects of coupling coefficients and time delays on lag synchronization,respectively.The results indicate that with appropriate training,the machine learning model can adeptly predict the lag synchronization occurrence and transition.This study not only enhances our comprehension of complex network synchronization behaviors but also underscores the potential and practical applications of machine learning in exploring nonlinear dynamic systems.
文摘Climate change may have detrimental effects on different sectoral growth in global economy and according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,the impacts of climate change will be more vigorous in the coming years.The climatic and non-climatic driving forces behind the economic sectoral performances involve short-and long-run interconnections among variables.This study attempts to investigate the effect of climatic factors(temperature and precipitation)along with non-climatic factors,including foreign direct investment(FDI),human capital index(HCI),natural capital(NC),and information and communication technology(ICT)on three major sectors of the economy(agricultural sector,industrial sector,and service sector)through non-linear model framework by employing cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag(CS-ARDL)estimation technique.It considers a panel of 56 selected countries from different income groups,including high-income countries,upper-middle-income countries,lower-middle-income countries,and low-income countries,covering the period 1985-2022.The confirmation of slope heterogeneity,cross-sectional dependence,stationarity,and cointegration among variables lends support to the robustness of results.The augmented mean group(AMG)robustness test was applied to check robustness and the results were found mostly consistent with estimation method.The results revealed that upper-middle-income countries are more vulnerable to extreme temperatures compared to high-income countries.The results also confirmed an inverted U-shaped relationship between each sector’s output and precipitation in upper-middle-income countries.In contrast,for upper-middle-income,lower-middle-income,and low-income countries,this relation exists in industrial sector only in long run.This indicates that precipitation is initially beneficial for production activities.However,beyond a certain threshold of precipitation,this trend reverses,i.e.,the output of the economic sectors tends to decline.Furthermore,there is no supporting evidence that confirms a short-run non-linear relation between precipitation and agricultural yields.In upper-middle-income countries,the results confirmed that FDI is a driving factor behind both agricultural sector and service sector in long run while short-run results indicated a negative association but insignificant.This study also showed that in long run,an increase in HCI contributes to improving the output of the three sectors for high-income countries.The empirical findings provide valuable insights for policy-makers and governments to formulate coherent adaptation and mitigation strategies,thereby accelerating the transition of sectoral productivity from low to high levels in the sample countries.
文摘The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination tracker dashboard. GIS-based exploratory analysis was conducted to select four variables (poverty, black race, population density, and vaccination) to explain COVID-19 occurrence during the study period. Consequently, spatial statistical techniques such as Moran’s I, Hot Spot Analysis, Spatial Lag Model (SLM), and Spatial Error Model (SEM) were used to explain the COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate across the 88 counties in Ohio. The result of the Local Moran’s I analysis reveals that the epicenters of COVID-19 and vaccination followed the same patterns. Indeed, counties like Summit, Franklin, Fairfield, Hamilton, and Medina were categorized as epicenters for both COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate. The SEM seems to be the best model for both COVID-19 and vaccination rates, with R2 values of 0.68 and 0.70, respectively. The GWR analysis proves to be better than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and the distribution of R2 in the GWR is uneven throughout the study area for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. Some counties have a high R2 of up to 0.70 for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. The outcomes of the regression analyses show that the SEM models can explain 68% - 70% of COVID-19 cases and vaccination across the entire counties within the study period. COVID-19 cases and vaccination rates exhibited significant positive associations with black race and poverty throughout the study area.
文摘1-12 month lagged correlations between winter temperatures at 22 stations in China and the global dis- tribution of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation(OLR)are investigated.The basic results are:(1)The monthly averaged temperatures of Dec.,Jan.and Feb.of China are correlated to the global distribution of OLR of Oct.,Nov.and Dec.,respectively.It is consistent with the response period(about 50 days)of 500 hPa geopotential height field in extratropical latitudes to the thermal forcing in tropical latitudes,and also consis- tent with the Walker cell of a 40-60 day oscillation.(2)There is a significant positive correlation between the winter temperature of the most part of China and the OLR in the Gulf of Mexico.It shows that when the thermal forcing of the Gulf of Mexico is stronger,the excited barotropic instability of westerlies in northern Atlantic could influence the East Asian circulation and cause the temperature of China to be below normal. (3)The temperature around the Tibetan(Xizang)Plateau is negatively correlated to the OLR in western equa- torial Pacific,showing that when the Walker cell is stronger,the local Hadley cell in Southeast Asia is stronger and it causes the temperature around the Tibetan Plateau to be higher than normal.
基金Projects(52174092,51904290)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation,ChinaProject(BK20220157)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province,China+1 种基金Project(232102321009)supported by Henan Province Science and Technology Key Project,ChinaProject(2022YCPY0202)supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China。
文摘A comprehensive understanding of the dynamic frictional characteristics in rock joints under high normal load and strong confinement is essential for ensuring the safety of deep engineering construction and mitigating geological disasters.This study conducted shear experiments on rough rock joints under displacement-controlled dynamic normal loads,investigating the shear behaviors of joints across varying initial normal loads,normal loading frequencies,and normal loading amplitudes.Experimental results showed that the peak/valley shear force values increased with initial normal loads and normal loading frequencies but showed an initial increase followed by a decrease with normal loading amplitudes.Dynamic normal loading can either increase or decrease shear strength,while this study demonstrates that higher frequencies lead to enhanced friction.Increased initial normal loading and normal loading frequency result in a gradual decrease in joint roughness coefficient(JRC)values of joint surfaces after shearing.Positive correlations existed between frictional energy dissipation and peak shear forces,while post-shear joint surface roughness exhibited a negative correlation with peak shear forces through linear regression analysis.This study contributes to a better understanding of the sliding responses and shear mechanical characteristics of rock joints under dynamic disturbances.
文摘The temperature change and rate of CO2 change are correlated with a time lag, as reported in a previous paper. The correlation was investigated by calculating a correlation coefficient r of these changes for selected ENSO events in this study. Annual periodical increases and decreases in the CO2 concentration were considered, with a regular pattern of minimum values in August and maximum values in May each year. An increased deviation in CO2 and temperature was found in response to the occurrence of El Niño, but the increase in CO2 lagged behind the change in temperature by 5 months. This pattern was not observed for La Niña events. An increase in global CO2 emissions and a subsequent increase in global temperature proposed by IPCC were not observed, but an increase in global temperature, an increase in soil respiration, and a subsequent increase in global CO2 emissions were noticed. This natural process can be clearly detected during periods of increasing temperature specifically during El Niño events. The results cast strong doubts that anthropogenic CO2 is the cause of global warming.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52221003,42277044)。
文摘Baseflow is one of the major pathways of runoff in hilly areas,and its contributions to surface water resources and pollutant loads cannot be ignored.In this study,based on water quantity and quality data from 1988 to 2019 in hilly and low rainfall watersheds,we focused on the impact of long-term baseflow on nitrogen load using the load allocation based on the baseflow separation method.We also constructed a nitrogen balance model for the Chaohe River Basin of China from 2012 to 2021 to analyze the nitrogen accumulation in the basin.We used the baseflow nitrogen load lag analysis method to study the lag characteristics of the baseflow discharge process and analyzed the response and periodicity of baseflow nitrogen to precipitation and soil accumulation using time delay analysis.The res-ults showed that the contribution rate of baseflow nitrogen reached 69%and showed a slight increasing trend from 1988 to 2019.The ef-fects of changes in precipitation and nitrogen accumulation on the baseflow contribution was observed after 1-2 and 2 yr,respectively.After nitrogen accumulation,it entered the river channel through baseflow,which was already the main and continuous source of nitro-gen in rivers in hilly areas.
基金supported partially by DGAPA/PAPIIT UNAM grant 220321 to LMOO.JAV received support from a DGAPA/PAPIIT UNAM grant(IA206523).
文摘Protected areas(PA)have proven to be one of the best ways to conserve biodiversity against environmental changes.Amphibians are considered the most threatened group,with habitat loss due to deforestation identified as their major threat.Here,we assessed for each PA of the American continent:1)amphibian’s occurrence(Global Biodiversity Information Facility(GBIF)vs.International Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN)data);2)temperature velocity and estimated the climate residence time,and using the latest models of the land future use;3)we estimated the changes of natural vs.modified cover in three future scenarios.Amphibian occurrence showed differences between databases,while GBIF data shows that 52%of the amphibian species occurring in the continent are in PA,based on IUCN data,85%are protected.Results from climate change show a low pace of climate velocity during the last century that is maintained in the green scenario(SSP126).However,change in temperature increases in rate in the rest of the scenarios,with scenario SSP58 showing the highest velocity of temperature change.Future estimates of residence times in PA show that lower levels as emission scenarios tend to be higher.These results are worrisome since climate lag,specifically temperature increase over the PA will probably affect amphibian communities as shown in previous studies.Changes in climate patterns have a direct—mostly negative—impact on amphibians’ability to disperse and reproduce.The results of land use change were unexpected,since the categories showed minimal changes.However,the data on urbanization changes do not seem to be reflecting the trends of other databases,which may be causing artifacts in the comparisons in the future models of land use.Further research will be necessary to evaluate the extent of similarities and differences in future projections of land use including urbanization and human population between different databases.
