In 2019,China had over 13.14 million dementia cases,with incidence rates of(56.47–207.08)/100,000[1].Early cognitive impairment—a key dementia symptom—reduces quality of life,increases care dependence,and lowers su...In 2019,China had over 13.14 million dementia cases,with incidence rates of(56.47–207.08)/100,000[1].Early cognitive impairment—a key dementia symptom—reduces quality of life,increases care dependence,and lowers survival in older adults[2].A decline in physical function can also be observed in older adults with increasing age.Grip strength has been shown to be a marker of overall physiological function in older adults.展开更多
The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of ...The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.展开更多
A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model,version 2.0.1.The approach averages the deterministic predictions...A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model,version 2.0.1.The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most recent model run and from earlier runs,all at the same forecast valid time.This lagged average forecast （LAF） method assigns equal weight to each ensemble member and produces a forecast by taking the ensemble mean.Our analyses of the Equitable Threat Score,the Hanssen and Kuipers Score,and the frequency bias indicate that the LAF using five members at time-lagged intervals of 6 h improves 6-15 day forecasts of precipitation frequency above 1 mm d-1 and 5 mm d-1 in many regions of China,and is more effective than the LAF method with selection of the time-lagged interval of 12 or 24 h between ensemble members.In particular,significant improvements are seen over regions where the frequencies of rainfall days are higher than about 40％-50％ in the summer season; these regions include northeastern and central to southern China,and the southeastem Tibetan Plateau.展开更多
Based on the theory of concrete structure, a new expression was derived for lagged strain of fiber-reinforced polymer （FLIP） laminates in reinforced concrete （RC） beams strengthened with FRP. The influence of diff...Based on the theory of concrete structure, a new expression was derived for lagged strain of fiber-reinforced polymer （FLIP） laminates in reinforced concrete （RC） beams strengthened with FRP. The influence of different preloaded states and nonlinear stress-strain relationship of compressed concrete were both taken into account in this approach. Then a simplified expression was given by ignoring tensile resistance of concrete. Comparison of analytical predictions with experimental results indicates satisfactory accuracy of the procedures. The errors are less than 8% and 10% respectively when the tensile resistance of concrete is or not considered. While the maximum error of existing procedures is up to 60%.展开更多
Fluorescence-based maximal photochemical efficiency, Fv/Fm, is widely used as an indicator to photosynthetic competence in marine systems. It has been considered a useful parameter diagnosing the nutrient stress on ph...Fluorescence-based maximal photochemical efficiency, Fv/Fm, is widely used as an indicator to photosynthetic competence in marine systems. It has been considered a useful parameter diagnosing the nutrient stress on phytoplankton photosynthesis, but many studies argue its usefulness. In the present study, we try to find a temporal relationship between Fv/Fm and nitrogen concentration, and provide a possible explanation on the controversy. We continuously measured Fv/Fm and nitrogen concentration once every 10 days from September 2003 to March 2004 at two stations in Jiaozhou Bay, northern China. It was found that Fv/ffm did not significantly correlate to synchronous nitrogen concentration, but the variation （i.e. the change between two adjacent cruises） of nitrogen concentration of the previous cruise and the variation ofFv/Fm of the current cruise were strongly correlated. This result indicates that a time lag exists between the variation of nutrient status and the subsequent Fv/Fm response. Length of the time lag seems just matched the interval of our measurements （10 days）. In the field, direct dependence of Fv/Fm on nitrogen concentration may not be found because of the lagged response of Fv/Fm to nitrogen concentration variations or physiological acclimation. Our results provide a possible way to explain the previously reported conflicting results on the relationship between Fv/Fm and nutrient status. To give a more-accurate estimate about the length of the time lag, an investigation that includes more frequent measurements is needed.展开更多
In this study,based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data and a multi-algorithm integrated atmospheric river(AR)iden-tification method,the authors reveal the cross-seasonal regulation mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillati...In this study,based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data and a multi-algorithm integrated atmospheric river(AR)iden-tification method,the authors reveal the cross-seasonal regulation mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on winter-spring AR activities in East Asia.The results show that ENSO asymmetrically modulates AR ac-tivity through teleconnection and hysteresis effects,and has significant enhancement/inhibition effects on ARs in different regions.At the onset of El Niño,enhanced southwesterly flow at the western edge of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)leads to enhanced AR activity in the western Pacific,and anomalous southerly winds in the Indian Ocean promote northward transport of water vapor in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.With a three-month lag,the weakening and eastward retreat of the WPSH weakens the low-latitude AR activity,but persistent southerly winds in the Bay of Bengal maintain the AR activity over Southwest China.The mid-to high-latitude AR response exhibits delayed dynamics,initially dominated by the synergistic effect of the southward deviation of the upper-air rapids and the low-level convergence(double-rapid-flow effect)and later modulated by the Pacific-North American teleconnection(PNA)-triggered East Asian ridge,which enhances the precipitation efficiency through prolonged frontal activity and enhanced cold-warm airmass convergence.Overall,El Niño promotes the development of low-and midlatitude AR activity in East Asia,while La Niña promotes(maritime continental)AR activity in the tropics.This study establishes the“ENSO teleconnection→circulation adjust-ment→East Asian AR response”chain,revealing a cross-seasonal lagged response mechanisms of East Asian AR activity,and provides a theoretical basis for winter and spring climate prediction and extreme precipitation forecasting.展开更多
Aims The plasticity of ecosystem responses could buffer and post-pone the effects of climates on ecosystem carbon fluxes,but this lagged effect is often ignored.In this study,we used carbon flux data collected from th...Aims The plasticity of ecosystem responses could buffer and post-pone the effects of climates on ecosystem carbon fluxes,but this lagged effect is often ignored.In this study,we used carbon flux data collected from three typical grassland ecosystems in China,including a temperate semiarid steppe in Inner mongolia(Neimeng site,Nm),an alpine shrub-meadow in Qinghai(Haibei site,Hb)and an alpine meadow steppe in Tibet(Dangxiong site,DX),to examine the time lagged effects of environmental factors on CO_(2) exchange.Methods Eddy covariance data were collected from three typical Chinese grasslands.In linking carbon fluxes with climatic factors,we used their averages or cumulative values within each 12-month period and we called them‘yearly’statistics in this study.To investigate the lagged effects of the climatic factors on the car-bon fluxes,the climatic‘yearly’statistics were kept still and the‘yearly’statistics of the carbon fluxes were shifted backward 1 month at a time.Important Findingssoil moisture and precipitation was the main factor driving the annual variations of carbon fluxes at the alpine Hb and DX,respectively,while the Nm site was under a synthetic impact of each climatic factor.The time lagged effect analysis showed that temperature had several months,even half a year lag effects on Co2 exchange at the three studied sites,while moisture’s effects were mostly exhibited as an immediate manner,except at Nm.In general,the lagged climatic effects were relatively weak for the alpine ecosystem.our results implied that it might be months or even 1 year before the variations of ecosystem carbon fluxes are adjusted to the current climate,so such lag effects could be resistant to more frequent climate extremes and should be a critical component to be considered in evaluating ecosystem stability.an improved knowledge on the lag effects could advance our understanding on the driving mechanisms of climate change effects on ecosystem carbon fluxes.展开更多
Dear Editor,Lymphocyte activation gene 3(LAG3),the third established target for immune checkpoint blockade therapy,suppresses T cell function by binding to major histocompatibility complex classⅡ(MHCⅡ).Despite its s...Dear Editor,Lymphocyte activation gene 3(LAG3),the third established target for immune checkpoint blockade therapy,suppresses T cell function by binding to major histocompatibility complex classⅡ(MHCⅡ).Despite its significant therapeutic potential in cancer immunotherapy and the substantial attention it has received from academia and industry,the molecular mechanisms of LAG3-mediated immunosuppression remain poorly understood,primarily because of its unique ligand-binding characteristics and intracellular domains[1].展开更多
1-12 month lagged correlations between winter temperatures at 22 stations in China and the global dis- tribution of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation(OLR)are investigated.The basic results are:(1)The monthly averaged te...1-12 month lagged correlations between winter temperatures at 22 stations in China and the global dis- tribution of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation(OLR)are investigated.The basic results are:(1)The monthly averaged temperatures of Dec.,Jan.and Feb.of China are correlated to the global distribution of OLR of Oct.,Nov.and Dec.,respectively.It is consistent with the response period(about 50 days)of 500 hPa geopotential height field in extratropical latitudes to the thermal forcing in tropical latitudes,and also consis- tent with the Walker cell of a 40-60 day oscillation.(2)There is a significant positive correlation between the winter temperature of the most part of China and the OLR in the Gulf of Mexico.It shows that when the thermal forcing of the Gulf of Mexico is stronger,the excited barotropic instability of westerlies in northern Atlantic could influence the East Asian circulation and cause the temperature of China to be below normal. (3)The temperature around the Tibetan(Xizang)Plateau is negatively correlated to the OLR in western equa- torial Pacific,showing that when the Walker cell is stronger,the local Hadley cell in Southeast Asia is stronger and it causes the temperature around the Tibetan Plateau to be higher than normal.展开更多
The Qinba Mountains are climatically and ecologically recognized as the north-south transitional zone of China.Analysis of its phenology is critical for comprehending the response of vegetation to climatic change.We r...The Qinba Mountains are climatically and ecologically recognized as the north-south transitional zone of China.Analysis of its phenology is critical for comprehending the response of vegetation to climatic change.We retrieved the start of spring phenology(SOS)of eight forest communities from the MODIS products and adopted it as an indicator for spring phenology.Trend analysis,partial correlation analysis,and GeoDetector were employed to reveal the spatio-temporal patterns and climatic drivers of SOS.The results indicated that the SOS presented an advance trend from 2001 to 2020,with a mean rate of−0.473 d yr^(−1).The SOS of most forests correlated negatively with air temperature(TEMP)and positively with precipitation(PRE),suggesting that rising TEMP and increasing PRE in spring would forward and delay SOS,respectively.The dominant factors influencing the sensitivity of SOS to climatic variables were altitude,forest type,and latitude,while the effects of slope and aspect were relatively minor.The response of SOS to climatic factors varied significantly in space and among forest communities,partly due to the influence of altitude,slope,and aspect.展开更多
Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts ...Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts and their lag time from meteorological droughts at a daily scale.In this study,precipitation data were collected to calculate the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and runoff data simulated by the variable infiltration capacity(VIC)model were utilized to compute the standardized runoff index(SRI).The three-threshold run theory was used to identify drought characteristics in China.These drought characteristics were utilized to investigate spatiotemporal variations,seasonal trends,and temporal changes in areas affected by meteorological and hydrological droughts.Additionally,the interconnections and lag effects between meteorological and hydrological droughts were explored.The results indicated that(1)drought occurred during approximately 28%of the past 34 years in China;(2)drought conditions tended to worsen in autumn and weaken in winter;(3)drought-affected areas shifted from northwest to northeast and finally to southern China;and(4)the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts was lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast,with all correlation coefficients exceeding 0.7.The lag times between meteorological and hydrological droughts were longest(5 d)in the Yangtze River,Yellow River,and Hai River basins,and shortest(0 d)in the Tarim River Basin.This study provides a scientific basis for effective early warning of droughts.展开更多
Dynamic disturbances certainly reduce shear strength of rock joints,yet the mechanism needs deeper explanation.We investigate the shear behavior of a rough basalt joint by conducting laboratory shear experiments.Const...Dynamic disturbances certainly reduce shear strength of rock joints,yet the mechanism needs deeper explanation.We investigate the shear behavior of a rough basalt joint by conducting laboratory shear experiments.Constant and superimposed oscillating normal loads are applied at the upper block.Meanwhile,the bottom block moves at a constant shear rate.We investigate the shear behavior by:1)altering the normal load oscillation frequency with a same shear rate,2)altering the shear rate with a same normal load oscillation frequency,and 3)altering the normal load oscillation frequency and shear rate simultaneously with a constant ratio.The results show that the oscillating normal load reduces the coefficient of friction(COF).The reduce degree of COF increases with higher shear rate,decreases when increasing normal load oscillation frequency,and keeps constant if the special ratio,v/f(shear rate divided by normal oscillation frequency),is constant.Moreover,we identify a time lag between peak normal load and peak shear load.And the lagging proportion increases with higher shear rate,and decreases with larger static COF.Our results imply that a lower creep rate with a higher normal load oscillation frequency easily destabilizes the creeping fault zones.展开更多
Purpose:The study examines the synergy and hysteresis in the evolution of funding and its supported literature,depicts their temporal correlation mechanism,which aids in improving trend predictions.Design/methodology/...Purpose:The study examines the synergy and hysteresis in the evolution of funding and its supported literature,depicts their temporal correlation mechanism,which aids in improving trend predictions.Design/methodology/approach:The study uses the LDA model to identify topics in funding texts and supported papers.A cosine similarity algorithm was employed to estimate the nexus between topics and construct the topic evolution time series.Similarly,the hysteresis effect in topic evolution is analyzed based on topic popularity and content,leading to insights into their temporal correlation mechanism.Findings:The study finds that fund and sponsored paper topics exhibit strong collaboration with a noticeable lag in evolution.The fund topics significantly influence sponsored paper topics after a two-year lag.Moreover,the lag effect is inversely proportional to the topic’s similarity.Research limitations:We use the LDA model to determine the hysteresis effect in topic evolution despite its limitations in handling long-tail words and domain-specific vocabulary.Furthermore,the timing of the emergence of the focal topic in funds is undermined,affecting the findings.Practical implications:These findings enhance the accuracy and scientific validity of trend prediction.Estimating and identifying patterns can help technology managers anticipate future research hotspots,supporting informed decision-making and technology management.Originality/value:This study introduces a research framework to quantitatively and visually analyze the hysteresis effect,revealing the correlation and evolutionary patterns between fund research topics and their funded papers.展开更多
This paper propose a comprehensive data-driven prediction framework based on machine learning methods to investigate the lag synchronization phenomenon in coupled chaotic systems,particularly in cases where accurate m...This paper propose a comprehensive data-driven prediction framework based on machine learning methods to investigate the lag synchronization phenomenon in coupled chaotic systems,particularly in cases where accurate mathematical models are challenging to establish or where system equations remain unknown.The Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)neural network is trained using time series acquired from the desynchronization system states,subsequently predicting the lag synchronization transition.In the experiments,we focus on the Lorenz system with time-varying delayed coupling,studying the effects of coupling coefficients and time delays on lag synchronization,respectively.The results indicate that with appropriate training,the machine learning model can adeptly predict the lag synchronization occurrence and transition.This study not only enhances our comprehension of complex network synchronization behaviors but also underscores the potential and practical applications of machine learning in exploring nonlinear dynamic systems.展开更多
Internal thermal mass,such as furniture and partitions,plays a crucial role in enhancing building energy efficiency and indoor thermal comfort by passively regulating temperature fluctuations.However,the irregular geo...Internal thermal mass,such as furniture and partitions,plays a crucial role in enhancing building energy efficiency and indoor thermal comfort by passively regulating temperature fluctuations.However,the irregular geometry of these elements poses a significant challenge for accurate modeling in building energy simulations.This study addresses this gap by developing a rigorous analytical model that idealizes internal thermal mass as a sphere,thereby capturing multi-directional heat conduction effects that are neglected in simpler one-dimensional slab models.The transient heat conduction within the sphere is solved analytically using Duhamel’s theorem for three representative indoor air temperature scenarios:(1)constant,simulating a space with active HVAC;(2)exponentially decaying,representing a free-floating space after HVAC shutdown;and(3)periodically varying,corresponding to a naturally ventilated environment.Closed-form solutions are derived for the sphere’s internal temperature field,surface heat flux,and cumulative heat absorbed.The results demonstrate that a material’s Biot number governs its transient thermal response,with high-Biot-number materials(e.g.,plywood)exhibiting a faster surface temperature rise but a steeper internal temperature gradient compared to low-Biot-number materials(e.g.,concrete).The analysis of exponentially decaying and periodic scenarios reveals that sphere radius is the dominant factor determining total heat storage capacity;larger spheres absorb and release significantly more energy per cycle,despite having a lower heat flux density.Furthermore,a quantitative comparison of the decrement factor and time lag shows that while different materials may similarly dampen temperature amplitudes,a material with lower thermal diffusivity(like reinforced concrete)provides a substantially longer time lag,making it more effective for shifting thermal loads.This work provides a versatile and physically insightful analytical framework that advances the modeling accuracy of internal thermal mass beyond existing lumped-parameter methods.展开更多
Climate change may have detrimental effects on different sectoral growth in global economy and according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,the impacts of climate change will be more vigorous in the comi...Climate change may have detrimental effects on different sectoral growth in global economy and according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,the impacts of climate change will be more vigorous in the coming years.The climatic and non-climatic driving forces behind the economic sectoral performances involve short-and long-run interconnections among variables.This study attempts to investigate the effect of climatic factors(temperature and precipitation)along with non-climatic factors,including foreign direct investment(FDI),human capital index(HCI),natural capital(NC),and information and communication technology(ICT)on three major sectors of the economy(agricultural sector,industrial sector,and service sector)through non-linear model framework by employing cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag(CS-ARDL)estimation technique.It considers a panel of 56 selected countries from different income groups,including high-income countries,upper-middle-income countries,lower-middle-income countries,and low-income countries,covering the period 1985-2022.The confirmation of slope heterogeneity,cross-sectional dependence,stationarity,and cointegration among variables lends support to the robustness of results.The augmented mean group(AMG)robustness test was applied to check robustness and the results were found mostly consistent with estimation method.The results revealed that upper-middle-income countries are more vulnerable to extreme temperatures compared to high-income countries.The results also confirmed an inverted U-shaped relationship between each sector’s output and precipitation in upper-middle-income countries.In contrast,for upper-middle-income,lower-middle-income,and low-income countries,this relation exists in industrial sector only in long run.This indicates that precipitation is initially beneficial for production activities.However,beyond a certain threshold of precipitation,this trend reverses,i.e.,the output of the economic sectors tends to decline.Furthermore,there is no supporting evidence that confirms a short-run non-linear relation between precipitation and agricultural yields.In upper-middle-income countries,the results confirmed that FDI is a driving factor behind both agricultural sector and service sector in long run while short-run results indicated a negative association but insignificant.This study also showed that in long run,an increase in HCI contributes to improving the output of the three sectors for high-income countries.The empirical findings provide valuable insights for policy-makers and governments to formulate coherent adaptation and mitigation strategies,thereby accelerating the transition of sectoral productivity from low to high levels in the sample countries.展开更多
The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination ...The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination tracker dashboard. GIS-based exploratory analysis was conducted to select four variables (poverty, black race, population density, and vaccination) to explain COVID-19 occurrence during the study period. Consequently, spatial statistical techniques such as Moran’s I, Hot Spot Analysis, Spatial Lag Model (SLM), and Spatial Error Model (SEM) were used to explain the COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate across the 88 counties in Ohio. The result of the Local Moran’s I analysis reveals that the epicenters of COVID-19 and vaccination followed the same patterns. Indeed, counties like Summit, Franklin, Fairfield, Hamilton, and Medina were categorized as epicenters for both COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate. The SEM seems to be the best model for both COVID-19 and vaccination rates, with R2 values of 0.68 and 0.70, respectively. The GWR analysis proves to be better than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and the distribution of R2 in the GWR is uneven throughout the study area for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. Some counties have a high R2 of up to 0.70 for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. The outcomes of the regression analyses show that the SEM models can explain 68% - 70% of COVID-19 cases and vaccination across the entire counties within the study period. COVID-19 cases and vaccination rates exhibited significant positive associations with black race and poverty throughout the study area.展开更多
基金supported by the Shanghai New Three-year Action Plan for Public Health(Grant No.GWV-10.1-XK16)the US National Institute on Aging(RO1-AGO34479).
文摘In 2019,China had over 13.14 million dementia cases,with incidence rates of(56.47–207.08)/100,000[1].Early cognitive impairment—a key dementia symptom—reduces quality of life,increases care dependence,and lowers survival in older adults[2].A decline in physical function can also be observed in older adults with increasing age.Grip strength has been shown to be a marker of overall physiological function in older adults.
基金supported by the National Key Program for Developing Basic Science(Nos.2022YFF0801702 and 2022YFE0106600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42175060 and 42175021)the Jiangsu Province Science Foundation(No.BK20250200302).
文摘The Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO)is a key atmospheric component connecting global weather and climate.It func-tions as a primary source for subseasonal forecasts.Previous studies have highlighted the vital impact of oceanic processes on MJO propagation.However,few existing MJO prediction approaches adequately consider these factors.This study determines the critical region for the oceanic processes affecting MJO propagation by utilizing 22-year Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data.By intro-ducing surface and subsurface oceanic temperature within this critical region into a lagged multiple linear regression model,the MJO forecasting skill is considerably optimized.This optimization leads to a 12 h enhancement in the forecasting skill of the first principal component and efficiently decreases prediction errors for the total predictions.Further analysis suggests that,during the years in which MJO events propagate across the Maritime Continent over a more southerly path,the optimized statistical forecasting model obtains better improvements in MJO prediction.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program: Grant No. 2010CB951902)the Special Program for China Meteorology Trade (Grant No. GYHY201306020)the Technology Support Program of China (Grant No. 2009BAC51B03)
文摘A time-lagged ensemble method is used to improve 6-15 day precipitation forecasts from the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model,version 2.0.1.The approach averages the deterministic predictions of precipitation from the most recent model run and from earlier runs,all at the same forecast valid time.This lagged average forecast （LAF） method assigns equal weight to each ensemble member and produces a forecast by taking the ensemble mean.Our analyses of the Equitable Threat Score,the Hanssen and Kuipers Score,and the frequency bias indicate that the LAF using five members at time-lagged intervals of 6 h improves 6-15 day forecasts of precipitation frequency above 1 mm d-1 and 5 mm d-1 in many regions of China,and is more effective than the LAF method with selection of the time-lagged interval of 12 or 24 h between ensemble members.In particular,significant improvements are seen over regions where the frequencies of rainfall days are higher than about 40％-50％ in the summer season; these regions include northeastern and central to southern China,and the southeastem Tibetan Plateau.
基金Project(2002G043) supported by the Science & Technology Research Program of Chinese Railway MinistryProject (05JJ30101)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, China
文摘Based on the theory of concrete structure, a new expression was derived for lagged strain of fiber-reinforced polymer （FLIP） laminates in reinforced concrete （RC） beams strengthened with FRP. The influence of different preloaded states and nonlinear stress-strain relationship of compressed concrete were both taken into account in this approach. Then a simplified expression was given by ignoring tensile resistance of concrete. Comparison of analytical predictions with experimental results indicates satisfactory accuracy of the procedures. The errors are less than 8% and 10% respectively when the tensile resistance of concrete is or not considered. While the maximum error of existing procedures is up to 60%.
基金Supported by the Public Science and Technology Research Funds of Ocean(No.200905019)the Science Foundation of Young Scientist,SOA(No.2011129)+1 种基金the Outstanding Young & Middle Scientist of Shandong Province(No.BS2010HZ018)the Taishan Scholar Fund of Aquatic Animal Nutrition and Feed to ZHANG Limin
文摘Fluorescence-based maximal photochemical efficiency, Fv/Fm, is widely used as an indicator to photosynthetic competence in marine systems. It has been considered a useful parameter diagnosing the nutrient stress on phytoplankton photosynthesis, but many studies argue its usefulness. In the present study, we try to find a temporal relationship between Fv/Fm and nitrogen concentration, and provide a possible explanation on the controversy. We continuously measured Fv/Fm and nitrogen concentration once every 10 days from September 2003 to March 2004 at two stations in Jiaozhou Bay, northern China. It was found that Fv/ffm did not significantly correlate to synchronous nitrogen concentration, but the variation （i.e. the change between two adjacent cruises） of nitrogen concentration of the previous cruise and the variation ofFv/Fm of the current cruise were strongly correlated. This result indicates that a time lag exists between the variation of nutrient status and the subsequent Fv/Fm response. Length of the time lag seems just matched the interval of our measurements （10 days）. In the field, direct dependence of Fv/Fm on nitrogen concentration may not be found because of the lagged response of Fv/Fm to nitrogen concentration variations or physiological acclimation. Our results provide a possible way to explain the previously reported conflicting results on the relationship between Fv/Fm and nutrient status. To give a more-accurate estimate about the length of the time lag, an investigation that includes more frequent measurements is needed.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41830964]the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province[grant number 2023JJ40666]。
文摘In this study,based on MERRA-2 reanalysis data and a multi-algorithm integrated atmospheric river(AR)iden-tification method,the authors reveal the cross-seasonal regulation mechanism of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)on winter-spring AR activities in East Asia.The results show that ENSO asymmetrically modulates AR ac-tivity through teleconnection and hysteresis effects,and has significant enhancement/inhibition effects on ARs in different regions.At the onset of El Niño,enhanced southwesterly flow at the western edge of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)leads to enhanced AR activity in the western Pacific,and anomalous southerly winds in the Indian Ocean promote northward transport of water vapor in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.With a three-month lag,the weakening and eastward retreat of the WPSH weakens the low-latitude AR activity,but persistent southerly winds in the Bay of Bengal maintain the AR activity over Southwest China.The mid-to high-latitude AR response exhibits delayed dynamics,initially dominated by the synergistic effect of the southward deviation of the upper-air rapids and the low-level convergence(double-rapid-flow effect)and later modulated by the Pacific-North American teleconnection(PNA)-triggered East Asian ridge,which enhances the precipitation efficiency through prolonged frontal activity and enhanced cold-warm airmass convergence.Overall,El Niño promotes the development of low-and midlatitude AR activity in East Asia,while La Niña promotes(maritime continental)AR activity in the tropics.This study establishes the“ENSO teleconnection→circulation adjust-ment→East Asian AR response”chain,revealing a cross-seasonal lagged response mechanisms of East Asian AR activity,and provides a theoretical basis for winter and spring climate prediction and extreme precipitation forecasting.
基金This work was supported by the 973 Program(2013CB956302)of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China,and One Hundred Talent Plan,Chinese Academy of Sciences.
文摘Aims The plasticity of ecosystem responses could buffer and post-pone the effects of climates on ecosystem carbon fluxes,but this lagged effect is often ignored.In this study,we used carbon flux data collected from three typical grassland ecosystems in China,including a temperate semiarid steppe in Inner mongolia(Neimeng site,Nm),an alpine shrub-meadow in Qinghai(Haibei site,Hb)and an alpine meadow steppe in Tibet(Dangxiong site,DX),to examine the time lagged effects of environmental factors on CO_(2) exchange.Methods Eddy covariance data were collected from three typical Chinese grasslands.In linking carbon fluxes with climatic factors,we used their averages or cumulative values within each 12-month period and we called them‘yearly’statistics in this study.To investigate the lagged effects of the climatic factors on the car-bon fluxes,the climatic‘yearly’statistics were kept still and the‘yearly’statistics of the carbon fluxes were shifted backward 1 month at a time.Important Findingssoil moisture and precipitation was the main factor driving the annual variations of carbon fluxes at the alpine Hb and DX,respectively,while the Nm site was under a synthetic impact of each climatic factor.The time lagged effect analysis showed that temperature had several months,even half a year lag effects on Co2 exchange at the three studied sites,while moisture’s effects were mostly exhibited as an immediate manner,except at Nm.In general,the lagged climatic effects were relatively weak for the alpine ecosystem.our results implied that it might be months or even 1 year before the variations of ecosystem carbon fluxes are adjusted to the current climate,so such lag effects could be resistant to more frequent climate extremes and should be a critical component to be considered in evaluating ecosystem stability.an improved knowledge on the lag effects could advance our understanding on the driving mechanisms of climate change effects on ecosystem carbon fluxes.
文摘Dear Editor,Lymphocyte activation gene 3(LAG3),the third established target for immune checkpoint blockade therapy,suppresses T cell function by binding to major histocompatibility complex classⅡ(MHCⅡ).Despite its significant therapeutic potential in cancer immunotherapy and the substantial attention it has received from academia and industry,the molecular mechanisms of LAG3-mediated immunosuppression remain poorly understood,primarily because of its unique ligand-binding characteristics and intracellular domains[1].
文摘1-12 month lagged correlations between winter temperatures at 22 stations in China and the global dis- tribution of the Outgoing Longwave Radiation(OLR)are investigated.The basic results are:(1)The monthly averaged temperatures of Dec.,Jan.and Feb.of China are correlated to the global distribution of OLR of Oct.,Nov.and Dec.,respectively.It is consistent with the response period(about 50 days)of 500 hPa geopotential height field in extratropical latitudes to the thermal forcing in tropical latitudes,and also consis- tent with the Walker cell of a 40-60 day oscillation.(2)There is a significant positive correlation between the winter temperature of the most part of China and the OLR in the Gulf of Mexico.It shows that when the thermal forcing of the Gulf of Mexico is stronger,the excited barotropic instability of westerlies in northern Atlantic could influence the East Asian circulation and cause the temperature of China to be below normal. (3)The temperature around the Tibetan(Xizang)Plateau is negatively correlated to the OLR in western equa- torial Pacific,showing that when the Walker cell is stronger,the local Hadley cell in Southeast Asia is stronger and it causes the temperature around the Tibetan Plateau to be higher than normal.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2023YFE0208100,No.2021YFC3000201Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province,No.232300420165。
文摘The Qinba Mountains are climatically and ecologically recognized as the north-south transitional zone of China.Analysis of its phenology is critical for comprehending the response of vegetation to climatic change.We retrieved the start of spring phenology(SOS)of eight forest communities from the MODIS products and adopted it as an indicator for spring phenology.Trend analysis,partial correlation analysis,and GeoDetector were employed to reveal the spatio-temporal patterns and climatic drivers of SOS.The results indicated that the SOS presented an advance trend from 2001 to 2020,with a mean rate of−0.473 d yr^(−1).The SOS of most forests correlated negatively with air temperature(TEMP)and positively with precipitation(PRE),suggesting that rising TEMP and increasing PRE in spring would forward and delay SOS,respectively.The dominant factors influencing the sensitivity of SOS to climatic variables were altitude,forest type,and latitude,while the effects of slope and aspect were relatively minor.The response of SOS to climatic factors varied significantly in space and among forest communities,partly due to the influence of altitude,slope,and aspect.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2023YFC3006505)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(Grant No.B240203007)the National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention(Grant No.524015222)。
文摘Understanding the evolution and lag effects of droughts is critical to effective drought warning and water resources management.However,due to limited hydrological data,few studies have examined hydrological droughts and their lag time from meteorological droughts at a daily scale.In this study,precipitation data were collected to calculate the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and runoff data simulated by the variable infiltration capacity(VIC)model were utilized to compute the standardized runoff index(SRI).The three-threshold run theory was used to identify drought characteristics in China.These drought characteristics were utilized to investigate spatiotemporal variations,seasonal trends,and temporal changes in areas affected by meteorological and hydrological droughts.Additionally,the interconnections and lag effects between meteorological and hydrological droughts were explored.The results indicated that(1)drought occurred during approximately 28%of the past 34 years in China;(2)drought conditions tended to worsen in autumn and weaken in winter;(3)drought-affected areas shifted from northwest to northeast and finally to southern China;and(4)the correlation between meteorological and hydrological droughts was lower in the northwest and higher in the southeast,with all correlation coefficients exceeding 0.7.The lag times between meteorological and hydrological droughts were longest(5 d)in the Yangtze River,Yellow River,and Hai River basins,and shortest(0 d)in the Tarim River Basin.This study provides a scientific basis for effective early warning of droughts.
基金Project(52474122)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(HSR202105)supported by the National Engineering Laboratory for High-speed Railway Construction,China+1 种基金Project(2025B1515020067)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of ChinaProject(2022A1515240009)supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China。
文摘Dynamic disturbances certainly reduce shear strength of rock joints,yet the mechanism needs deeper explanation.We investigate the shear behavior of a rough basalt joint by conducting laboratory shear experiments.Constant and superimposed oscillating normal loads are applied at the upper block.Meanwhile,the bottom block moves at a constant shear rate.We investigate the shear behavior by:1)altering the normal load oscillation frequency with a same shear rate,2)altering the shear rate with a same normal load oscillation frequency,and 3)altering the normal load oscillation frequency and shear rate simultaneously with a constant ratio.The results show that the oscillating normal load reduces the coefficient of friction(COF).The reduce degree of COF increases with higher shear rate,decreases when increasing normal load oscillation frequency,and keeps constant if the special ratio,v/f(shear rate divided by normal oscillation frequency),is constant.Moreover,we identify a time lag between peak normal load and peak shear load.And the lagging proportion increases with higher shear rate,and decreases with larger static COF.Our results imply that a lower creep rate with a higher normal load oscillation frequency easily destabilizes the creeping fault zones.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72104110 No.72274113)Basic Science(Natural Science)Research Projects in Higher Education Institutions in Jiangsu Province(No.22KJB630011)+2 种基金General Project of Philosophy and Social Sciences Research in Jiangsu Universities(No.2022SJYB0253)Taishan Scholar Foundation of Shandong province of China(tsqn202103069)Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(No.ZR202111130115)。
文摘Purpose:The study examines the synergy and hysteresis in the evolution of funding and its supported literature,depicts their temporal correlation mechanism,which aids in improving trend predictions.Design/methodology/approach:The study uses the LDA model to identify topics in funding texts and supported papers.A cosine similarity algorithm was employed to estimate the nexus between topics and construct the topic evolution time series.Similarly,the hysteresis effect in topic evolution is analyzed based on topic popularity and content,leading to insights into their temporal correlation mechanism.Findings:The study finds that fund and sponsored paper topics exhibit strong collaboration with a noticeable lag in evolution.The fund topics significantly influence sponsored paper topics after a two-year lag.Moreover,the lag effect is inversely proportional to the topic’s similarity.Research limitations:We use the LDA model to determine the hysteresis effect in topic evolution despite its limitations in handling long-tail words and domain-specific vocabulary.Furthermore,the timing of the emergence of the focal topic in funds is undermined,affecting the findings.Practical implications:These findings enhance the accuracy and scientific validity of trend prediction.Estimating and identifying patterns can help technology managers anticipate future research hotspots,supporting informed decision-making and technology management.Originality/value:This study introduces a research framework to quantitatively and visually analyze the hysteresis effect,revealing the correlation and evolutionary patterns between fund research topics and their funded papers.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52174184)。
文摘This paper propose a comprehensive data-driven prediction framework based on machine learning methods to investigate the lag synchronization phenomenon in coupled chaotic systems,particularly in cases where accurate mathematical models are challenging to establish or where system equations remain unknown.The Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)neural network is trained using time series acquired from the desynchronization system states,subsequently predicting the lag synchronization transition.In the experiments,we focus on the Lorenz system with time-varying delayed coupling,studying the effects of coupling coefficients and time delays on lag synchronization,respectively.The results indicate that with appropriate training,the machine learning model can adeptly predict the lag synchronization occurrence and transition.This study not only enhances our comprehension of complex network synchronization behaviors but also underscores the potential and practical applications of machine learning in exploring nonlinear dynamic systems.
基金supported by the Nanxu Scholars Program for Young Scholars of ZJWEU(RC2024021184).
文摘Internal thermal mass,such as furniture and partitions,plays a crucial role in enhancing building energy efficiency and indoor thermal comfort by passively regulating temperature fluctuations.However,the irregular geometry of these elements poses a significant challenge for accurate modeling in building energy simulations.This study addresses this gap by developing a rigorous analytical model that idealizes internal thermal mass as a sphere,thereby capturing multi-directional heat conduction effects that are neglected in simpler one-dimensional slab models.The transient heat conduction within the sphere is solved analytically using Duhamel’s theorem for three representative indoor air temperature scenarios:(1)constant,simulating a space with active HVAC;(2)exponentially decaying,representing a free-floating space after HVAC shutdown;and(3)periodically varying,corresponding to a naturally ventilated environment.Closed-form solutions are derived for the sphere’s internal temperature field,surface heat flux,and cumulative heat absorbed.The results demonstrate that a material’s Biot number governs its transient thermal response,with high-Biot-number materials(e.g.,plywood)exhibiting a faster surface temperature rise but a steeper internal temperature gradient compared to low-Biot-number materials(e.g.,concrete).The analysis of exponentially decaying and periodic scenarios reveals that sphere radius is the dominant factor determining total heat storage capacity;larger spheres absorb and release significantly more energy per cycle,despite having a lower heat flux density.Furthermore,a quantitative comparison of the decrement factor and time lag shows that while different materials may similarly dampen temperature amplitudes,a material with lower thermal diffusivity(like reinforced concrete)provides a substantially longer time lag,making it more effective for shifting thermal loads.This work provides a versatile and physically insightful analytical framework that advances the modeling accuracy of internal thermal mass beyond existing lumped-parameter methods.
文摘Climate change may have detrimental effects on different sectoral growth in global economy and according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,the impacts of climate change will be more vigorous in the coming years.The climatic and non-climatic driving forces behind the economic sectoral performances involve short-and long-run interconnections among variables.This study attempts to investigate the effect of climatic factors(temperature and precipitation)along with non-climatic factors,including foreign direct investment(FDI),human capital index(HCI),natural capital(NC),and information and communication technology(ICT)on three major sectors of the economy(agricultural sector,industrial sector,and service sector)through non-linear model framework by employing cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag(CS-ARDL)estimation technique.It considers a panel of 56 selected countries from different income groups,including high-income countries,upper-middle-income countries,lower-middle-income countries,and low-income countries,covering the period 1985-2022.The confirmation of slope heterogeneity,cross-sectional dependence,stationarity,and cointegration among variables lends support to the robustness of results.The augmented mean group(AMG)robustness test was applied to check robustness and the results were found mostly consistent with estimation method.The results revealed that upper-middle-income countries are more vulnerable to extreme temperatures compared to high-income countries.The results also confirmed an inverted U-shaped relationship between each sector’s output and precipitation in upper-middle-income countries.In contrast,for upper-middle-income,lower-middle-income,and low-income countries,this relation exists in industrial sector only in long run.This indicates that precipitation is initially beneficial for production activities.However,beyond a certain threshold of precipitation,this trend reverses,i.e.,the output of the economic sectors tends to decline.Furthermore,there is no supporting evidence that confirms a short-run non-linear relation between precipitation and agricultural yields.In upper-middle-income countries,the results confirmed that FDI is a driving factor behind both agricultural sector and service sector in long run while short-run results indicated a negative association but insignificant.This study also showed that in long run,an increase in HCI contributes to improving the output of the three sectors for high-income countries.The empirical findings provide valuable insights for policy-makers and governments to formulate coherent adaptation and mitigation strategies,thereby accelerating the transition of sectoral productivity from low to high levels in the sample countries.
文摘The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination tracker dashboard. GIS-based exploratory analysis was conducted to select four variables (poverty, black race, population density, and vaccination) to explain COVID-19 occurrence during the study period. Consequently, spatial statistical techniques such as Moran’s I, Hot Spot Analysis, Spatial Lag Model (SLM), and Spatial Error Model (SEM) were used to explain the COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate across the 88 counties in Ohio. The result of the Local Moran’s I analysis reveals that the epicenters of COVID-19 and vaccination followed the same patterns. Indeed, counties like Summit, Franklin, Fairfield, Hamilton, and Medina were categorized as epicenters for both COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate. The SEM seems to be the best model for both COVID-19 and vaccination rates, with R2 values of 0.68 and 0.70, respectively. The GWR analysis proves to be better than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and the distribution of R2 in the GWR is uneven throughout the study area for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. Some counties have a high R2 of up to 0.70 for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. The outcomes of the regression analyses show that the SEM models can explain 68% - 70% of COVID-19 cases and vaccination across the entire counties within the study period. COVID-19 cases and vaccination rates exhibited significant positive associations with black race and poverty throughout the study area.
