Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to ana...Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.展开更多
The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s （2041-2...The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s （2041-2050）, which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies （PRECIS） had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio （2×CO2/l ×CO2） show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.展开更多
Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. A...Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. As fire prevention is probably the most efficient means for protecting forests, suitable methods should be developed for estimating the fire danger. Fire danger is composed of ecological, human and climatic factors. Therefore, the systematic analysis of the factors including forest characteristics, meteorological status, topographic condition causing forest fire is made in this paper at first. The relationships between biophysical factors and fire danger are paid more attention to. Then the parameters derived from remote sensing data are used to estimate the fire danger variables, According to the analysis, not only PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) can classify different vegetation but also crown density is captured with PVI. Vegetation moisture content has high correlation with the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (LE) to potential ecapotranspiration (LEp). SI (Structural Index), which is the combination of TM band 4 and 5 data, is a good indicator of forest age. Finally, a fire danger prediction model, in which relative importance of each fire factor is taken into account, is built based on GIS.展开更多
Forest fires seriously threaten forestry resources and the life and property safety of people in mountainous areas of Lishui City. In this paper, a fire prevention concept with refined forecast and early warning of fo...Forest fires seriously threaten forestry resources and the life and property safety of people in mountainous areas of Lishui City. In this paper, a fire prevention concept with refined forecast and early warning of forest fire danger weather ratings in townships as the starting point, satellite real-time observation of fire spots, monitoring of the Internet of Things and other high-tech products as an implementation means, and strengthening forest fire prevention equipment and personnel in townships as a guarantee was established. The command system for rapid emergency response by cities, counties and townships should be improved. During the forest fire prevention period, fire sources should be strictly controlled, and the basic principles of forest fire fighting in townships should be implemented into the actual fire prevention and fire fighting work to eliminate forest fires in time at the initial stage and before the disaster.展开更多
Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate chan...Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management. This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for 2021-2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data. The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions. Compared with the baseline period (1971-2000), the period 2021-2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02-2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4-40.3 mm, while the fire weather index (FWI) was predicted to increase by 6.2-11.2% and seasonal severity rating (SSR) by 5.5-17.2%. The DMC (Duff moisture code), ISI (initial spread index), BUI (build-up index), FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Furthermore, days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3-6 days, with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.展开更多
The methodology on forest fire danger forecast system of national level and daily operation of the system was discussed. The system determined prediction model and method according to forest fire danger rating and fir...The methodology on forest fire danger forecast system of national level and daily operation of the system was discussed. The system determined prediction model and method according to forest fire danger rating and fire danger indexes defined by related professional standards of forestry. The system obtains daily collection of meteorological observation dataset and information of digital weather forecast through the network. It also obtained daily weather observation data and observed data of fire danger factors on key areas through network. It thus concluded the weather forecast of national forest fire danger and forest fire danger forecast within future 24 hours and 48 hours, under the support of basic databases and after colligated processing and analysis of various data on GIS software platform. The forecast results have been daily promulgated through special forestry network and were published 4 times a week through China Central Television Program (CCTV2).展开更多
森林火灾严重危害生态环境,引起了全球的高度重视。将从MODIS(MODerate-resolution imagingspectroradiometer)中提取的活动火点与历史火烧痕迹进行比较研究,发现MOD14A1(火掩膜数据产品a dai-ly Level 3 1-km fire hot spot product)...森林火灾严重危害生态环境,引起了全球的高度重视。将从MODIS(MODerate-resolution imagingspectroradiometer)中提取的活动火点与历史火烧痕迹进行比较研究,发现MOD14A1(火掩膜数据产品a dai-ly Level 3 1-km fire hot spot product)中提取的8+9波段适合消防监测,与现场勘察数据相比较吻合度高达0.83。使用MOD14A1中8+9波段结合相关数据对这个区域的长达11年(2000—2010年)的森林火灾发生的时间和空间分析,结果表明:火灾发生频率最多的是春季,秋季次之,夏天概率最低,除非干旱。通过对研究区域黑龙江省分析,针叶林和温带针阔混交林过火面积所占比例分别为53.68%,44%,草原区过火面积较小为2.32%。大兴安岭是主要的燃烧区域,面积达到64.74%,小兴安岭约为23.49%,而其他区域面积不超过5%。且火灾发生的较大部分森林有个平缓的斜坡(≤5°),大部分处于中海拔(200m≤H≤500m)。因此,通过卫星遥感对森林火区区域的时间序列分析,阐明火灾活动规律和气候、地形、植被类型的相互关系,有助于预测火灾区域危险性等级。展开更多
基金support by National Science and Technology Support Plan(2007BAC03A02)National Natural Science Foundation of China(30671695)
文摘Climate warming has a rapid and far-reaching impact on forest fire management in the boreal forests of China. Regional climate model outputs and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） Sys- tem were used to analyze changes to fire danger and the fire season for future periods under IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） A2 and B2, and the data will guide future fire management planning. We used regional climate in China （1961 1990） as our validation data, and the period （1991–2100） was modeled under SRES A2 and B2 through the weather simulated by the regional climate model system （PRECIS）. Meteorological data and fire danger were interpolated to 1 km 2 by using ANUSPLIN software. The average FWI value for future spring fire sea- sons under Scenarios A2 and B2 shows an increase over most of the region. Compared with the baseline, FWI averages of spring fire season will increase by 0.40, 0.26 and 1.32 under Scenario A2, and increase by 0.60, 1.54 and 2.56 under Scenario B2 in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s, respectively. FWI averages of autumn fire season also show an increase over most of the region. FWI values increase more for Scenario B2 than for Scenario A2 in the same periods, particularly during the 2050s and 2080s. Average future FWI values will increase under both scenarios for autumn fire season. The potential burned areas are expected to increase by 10% and 18% in spring for 2080s under Scenario A2 and B2, respectively. Fire season will be prolonged by 21 and 26 days under ScenariosA2 and B2 in 2080s respectively.
基金supported by the Open Project Program of the State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. HZ2010-KF10)the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2007BAC03A02)
文摘The average temperature of northeastern China is expected to increase 2.22 and 2.55℃ under two scenarios selected from the Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC）, i.e., A2 and B2, during the 2040s （2041-2050）, which will have an impact on fire activities in those areas. We calculated the output of regional climate models, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index （FWI） on a scale of 50 km × 50 km. Meteorological data and fire weather index were interpolated to a scale of 1 km × 1 km by using ANUSPLIN software. The results show that the model of Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies （PRECIS） had the ability to provide good temperature and precipitation estimates of the study area in the baseline period, by simulation. In the 2040s the mean FWI values of the study area will increase during most of the fire seasons under both selected scenarios, compared with the baseline period. Under scenario B2 the peak fire season will appear in advance. The changes of FWI ratio （2×CO2/l ×CO2） show that the potential burned areas will increase 20% under scenario B2 and lightly increase under scenario A2 in 2040s. The days of high, very high and extreme fire danger classes will add 5 and 18 d under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively. It suggests adapting the climate change through improving fuel management and enhancing the fighting abilities.
文摘Forest fire is one of the main natural hazards because of its fierce destructiveness. Various researches on fire real time monitoring, behavior simulation and loss assessment have been carried out in many countries. As fire prevention is probably the most efficient means for protecting forests, suitable methods should be developed for estimating the fire danger. Fire danger is composed of ecological, human and climatic factors. Therefore, the systematic analysis of the factors including forest characteristics, meteorological status, topographic condition causing forest fire is made in this paper at first. The relationships between biophysical factors and fire danger are paid more attention to. Then the parameters derived from remote sensing data are used to estimate the fire danger variables, According to the analysis, not only PVI (Perpendicular Vegetation Index) can classify different vegetation but also crown density is captured with PVI. Vegetation moisture content has high correlation with the ratio of actual evapotranspiration (LE) to potential ecapotranspiration (LEp). SI (Structural Index), which is the combination of TM band 4 and 5 data, is a good indicator of forest age. Finally, a fire danger prediction model, in which relative importance of each fire factor is taken into account, is built based on GIS.
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Project of Jingning County(2022C7).
文摘Forest fires seriously threaten forestry resources and the life and property safety of people in mountainous areas of Lishui City. In this paper, a fire prevention concept with refined forecast and early warning of forest fire danger weather ratings in townships as the starting point, satellite real-time observation of fire spots, monitoring of the Internet of Things and other high-tech products as an implementation means, and strengthening forest fire prevention equipment and personnel in townships as a guarantee was established. The command system for rapid emergency response by cities, counties and townships should be improved. During the forest fire prevention period, fire sources should be strictly controlled, and the basic principles of forest fire fighting in townships should be implemented into the actual fire prevention and fire fighting work to eliminate forest fires in time at the initial stage and before the disaster.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31270695)the National Science and Technology Support Plan(2012BAC19B02)
文摘Daxing’anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China. Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management. This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5) for 2021-2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data. The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions. Compared with the baseline period (1971-2000), the period 2021-2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02-2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4-40.3 mm, while the fire weather index (FWI) was predicted to increase by 6.2-11.2% and seasonal severity rating (SSR) by 5.5-17.2%. The DMC (Duff moisture code), ISI (initial spread index), BUI (build-up index), FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. Furthermore, days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3-6 days, with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.
文摘The methodology on forest fire danger forecast system of national level and daily operation of the system was discussed. The system determined prediction model and method according to forest fire danger rating and fire danger indexes defined by related professional standards of forestry. The system obtains daily collection of meteorological observation dataset and information of digital weather forecast through the network. It also obtained daily weather observation data and observed data of fire danger factors on key areas through network. It thus concluded the weather forecast of national forest fire danger and forest fire danger forecast within future 24 hours and 48 hours, under the support of basic databases and after colligated processing and analysis of various data on GIS software platform. The forecast results have been daily promulgated through special forestry network and were published 4 times a week through China Central Television Program (CCTV2).
文摘森林火灾严重危害生态环境,引起了全球的高度重视。将从MODIS(MODerate-resolution imagingspectroradiometer)中提取的活动火点与历史火烧痕迹进行比较研究,发现MOD14A1(火掩膜数据产品a dai-ly Level 3 1-km fire hot spot product)中提取的8+9波段适合消防监测,与现场勘察数据相比较吻合度高达0.83。使用MOD14A1中8+9波段结合相关数据对这个区域的长达11年(2000—2010年)的森林火灾发生的时间和空间分析,结果表明:火灾发生频率最多的是春季,秋季次之,夏天概率最低,除非干旱。通过对研究区域黑龙江省分析,针叶林和温带针阔混交林过火面积所占比例分别为53.68%,44%,草原区过火面积较小为2.32%。大兴安岭是主要的燃烧区域,面积达到64.74%,小兴安岭约为23.49%,而其他区域面积不超过5%。且火灾发生的较大部分森林有个平缓的斜坡(≤5°),大部分处于中海拔(200m≤H≤500m)。因此,通过卫星遥感对森林火区区域的时间序列分析,阐明火灾活动规律和气候、地形、植被类型的相互关系,有助于预测火灾区域危险性等级。
