United Nations(UN)encourages sovereign states to take prompt and concrete measures to accomplish net-zero emissions by year 2050,requesting carbon dioxide removal(CDR)technologies to be prepared and implemented in suc...United Nations(UN)encourages sovereign states to take prompt and concrete measures to accomplish net-zero emissions by year 2050,requesting carbon dioxide removal(CDR)technologies to be prepared and implemented in such ambitious climate action roadmap.However,whether CDR technologies should be further promoted or discontinued post net-zero emission year remains unclear.In this Earth-system modelling research,we compare UN-suggested 2050 net-zero emission scenario against other common climate mitigation scenarios outlined by shared social-economic pathways(SSPs).We also simulate continued CDR implementations after net-zero emissions,which is hypothetically achieved in year 2050 and 2070 respectively,to investigate how CDR can impact the global climate throughout the whole 21st and 22nd centuries.The modelling results find if the 2050 UN net-zero emission goal is accomplished,the global average surface air temperature(SAT)in the end of 21st century is around 1.5℃higher compared to the pre-industrial level,promising an Earth environment more habitable than other scenarios without CDR.When CDR is applied to remove equal amount of anthropogenic CO_(2)emissions since industrial revolution,it restores the global average SAT close to pre-industrial level of 13.5℃.However,CDR-induced global carbon distribution within ocean,atmosphere,and land pools is different from the pre-industrial condition,causing reduced atmospheric CO_(2)concentration by 9 to 38 ppm compared to the pre-industrial cases,and more alkalinized ocean surface with pH increase of 0.004 to 0.024.This study affirms CDR cannot be viewed as a reversed process to anthropogenic CO_(2)emissions,accordingly climate policies to overcome the uncertainties after for late 21st century still require careful trade-offs for the decarbonation and the cost-benefits of CDR measures.展开更多
The well-posedness of the dynamic framework in earth-system model(ESM for short)is a common issue in earth sciences and mathematics.In this paper,the authors first introduce the research history and fundamental roles ...The well-posedness of the dynamic framework in earth-system model(ESM for short)is a common issue in earth sciences and mathematics.In this paper,the authors first introduce the research history and fundamental roles of the well-posedness of the dynamic framework in the ESM,emphasizing the three core components of ESM,i.e.,the atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM for short),land-surface model(LSM for short)and oceanic general circulation model(OGCM for short)and their couplings.Then,some research advances made by their own research group are outlined.Finally,future research prospects are discussed.展开更多
【目的】地球表层系统科学数据有向加权关联网络的关键节点识别对科学数据精准推荐与知识发现具有重要意义,但现有方法存在评估片面、特征利用不足及权重分配科学性欠缺等挑战。【方法】本文提出一种基于主客观融合权重的逼近理想解排序...【目的】地球表层系统科学数据有向加权关联网络的关键节点识别对科学数据精准推荐与知识发现具有重要意义,但现有方法存在评估片面、特征利用不足及权重分配科学性欠缺等挑战。【方法】本文提出一种基于主客观融合权重的逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution, TOPSIS)的关键节点识别方法。首先,提出节点相似中心性指标,通过融合关联度与强度平衡局部拓扑与全局影响力;然后,构建整合网络拓扑、数据关联及节点相似性的多指标评价体系,全面刻画节点重要性;接着,提出双层权重优化策略,结合层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)和指标相关性定权法(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation, CRITIC)方法,融合主客观权重,提升评估科学性;最后,结合TOPSIS评估方法进行节点重要性的综合评估。【结果】实验基于团队构建的不同规模的地表系统科学数据有向加权关联网络,结合加权易感-感染-恢复(SIR)模型进行实验验证,结果表明:与传统网络加权中心性以及基于主观或客观权重的TOPSIS等方法相比,本文方法在肯德尔相关系数值和TOP-K命中率方面表现更优,且在网络中展现强鲁棒性。【结论】该方法为地表系统科学数据网络分析提供了新方法,可支撑智能推荐、资源优化及系统脆弱性分析等实际应用,助力地球系统科学研究的深度发展。展开更多
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.202242001)the Mount Tai Research Grant。
文摘United Nations(UN)encourages sovereign states to take prompt and concrete measures to accomplish net-zero emissions by year 2050,requesting carbon dioxide removal(CDR)technologies to be prepared and implemented in such ambitious climate action roadmap.However,whether CDR technologies should be further promoted or discontinued post net-zero emission year remains unclear.In this Earth-system modelling research,we compare UN-suggested 2050 net-zero emission scenario against other common climate mitigation scenarios outlined by shared social-economic pathways(SSPs).We also simulate continued CDR implementations after net-zero emissions,which is hypothetically achieved in year 2050 and 2070 respectively,to investigate how CDR can impact the global climate throughout the whole 21st and 22nd centuries.The modelling results find if the 2050 UN net-zero emission goal is accomplished,the global average surface air temperature(SAT)in the end of 21st century is around 1.5℃higher compared to the pre-industrial level,promising an Earth environment more habitable than other scenarios without CDR.When CDR is applied to remove equal amount of anthropogenic CO_(2)emissions since industrial revolution,it restores the global average SAT close to pre-industrial level of 13.5℃.However,CDR-induced global carbon distribution within ocean,atmosphere,and land pools is different from the pre-industrial condition,causing reduced atmospheric CO_(2)concentration by 9 to 38 ppm compared to the pre-industrial cases,and more alkalinized ocean surface with pH increase of 0.004 to 0.024.This study affirms CDR cannot be viewed as a reversed process to anthropogenic CO_(2)emissions,accordingly climate policies to overcome the uncertainties after for late 21st century still require careful trade-offs for the decarbonation and the cost-benefits of CDR measures.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41975129,41630530)Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.QYZDYSSW-DQC002)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘The well-posedness of the dynamic framework in earth-system model(ESM for short)is a common issue in earth sciences and mathematics.In this paper,the authors first introduce the research history and fundamental roles of the well-posedness of the dynamic framework in the ESM,emphasizing the three core components of ESM,i.e.,the atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM for short),land-surface model(LSM for short)and oceanic general circulation model(OGCM for short)and their couplings.Then,some research advances made by their own research group are outlined.Finally,future research prospects are discussed.
文摘【目的】地球表层系统科学数据有向加权关联网络的关键节点识别对科学数据精准推荐与知识发现具有重要意义,但现有方法存在评估片面、特征利用不足及权重分配科学性欠缺等挑战。【方法】本文提出一种基于主客观融合权重的逼近理想解排序法(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution, TOPSIS)的关键节点识别方法。首先,提出节点相似中心性指标,通过融合关联度与强度平衡局部拓扑与全局影响力;然后,构建整合网络拓扑、数据关联及节点相似性的多指标评价体系,全面刻画节点重要性;接着,提出双层权重优化策略,结合层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)和指标相关性定权法(Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation, CRITIC)方法,融合主客观权重,提升评估科学性;最后,结合TOPSIS评估方法进行节点重要性的综合评估。【结果】实验基于团队构建的不同规模的地表系统科学数据有向加权关联网络,结合加权易感-感染-恢复(SIR)模型进行实验验证,结果表明:与传统网络加权中心性以及基于主观或客观权重的TOPSIS等方法相比,本文方法在肯德尔相关系数值和TOP-K命中率方面表现更优,且在网络中展现强鲁棒性。【结论】该方法为地表系统科学数据网络分析提供了新方法,可支撑智能推荐、资源优化及系统脆弱性分析等实际应用,助力地球系统科学研究的深度发展。
