Influenza,an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by the influenza virus,exhibits distinct seasonal patterns in China,with peak activity occurring in winter and spring in northern regions,and in winter and summ...Influenza,an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by the influenza virus,exhibits distinct seasonal patterns in China,with peak activity occurring in winter and spring in northern regions,and in winter and summer in southern areas[1].The World Health Organization(WHO)emphasizes that early warning and epidemic intensity assessments are critical public health strategies for influenza prevention and control.Internet-based flu surveillance,with real-time data and low costs,effectively complements traditional methods.The Baidu Search Index,which reflects flu-related queries,strongly correlates with influenza trends,aiding in regional activity assessment and outbreak tracking[2].展开更多
A stochastic epidemic model with two age groups is established in this study,in which the susceptible(S),the exposed(E),the infected(I),the hospitalized(H)and the recovered(R)are involved within the total population,t...A stochastic epidemic model with two age groups is established in this study,in which the susceptible(S),the exposed(E),the infected(I),the hospitalized(H)and the recovered(R)are involved within the total population,the aging rates between two age groups are set to be constant.The existence-and-uniqueness of global positive solution is firstly showed.Then,by constructing several appropriate Lyapunov functions and using the high-dimensional Itô’s formula,the sufficient conditions for the stochastic extinction and stochastic persistence of the exposed individuals and the infected individuals are obtained.The stochastic extinction indicator and the stochastic persistence indicator are less-valued expressions compared with the basic reproduction number.Meanwhile,the main results of this study are modified into multi-age groups.Furthermore,by using the surveillance data for Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou COVID-19 epidemic is chosen to carry out the numerical simulations,which show that the age group of the population plays the vital role when studying infectious diseases.展开更多
The numerical approximation of stochastic partial differential equations(SPDEs),particularly those including q-diffusion,poses considerable challenges due to the requirements for high-order precision,stability amongst...The numerical approximation of stochastic partial differential equations(SPDEs),particularly those including q-diffusion,poses considerable challenges due to the requirements for high-order precision,stability amongst random perturbations,and processing efficiency.Because of their simplicity,conventional numerical techniques like the Euler-Maruyama method are frequently employed to solve stochastic differential equations;nonetheless,they may have low-order accuracy and lower stability in stiff or high-resolution situations.This study proposes a novel computational scheme for solving SPDEs arising from a stochastic SEIR model with q-diffusion and a general incidence rate function.A proposed computational scheme can be used to solve stochastic partial differential equations.For spatial discretization,a compact scheme is chosen.The compact scheme can provide a sixth-order accurate solution.The proposed scheme can be considered an extension of the Euler Maruyama method.Stability and consistency in the mean square sense are also provided.For application purposes,the stochastic SEIR model is considered using q-diffusion effects.The scheme is used to solve the stochastic model and compared with the Euler-Maruyama method.The scheme is also compared with nonstandard finite difference method for solving deterministic models.In both cases,it performs better than existing schemes.Incorporating q-diffusion further enhanced the model’s ability to represent realistic spatial-temporal disease dynamics,especially in scenarios where classical diffusion is insufficient.展开更多
Information plays a crucial role in guiding behavioral decisions during public health emergencies. Individuals communicate to acquire relevant knowledge about an epidemic, which influences their decisions to adopt pro...Information plays a crucial role in guiding behavioral decisions during public health emergencies. Individuals communicate to acquire relevant knowledge about an epidemic, which influences their decisions to adopt protective measures.However, whether to disseminate specific information is also a behavioral decision. In light of this understanding, we develop a coupled information–vaccination–epidemic model to depict these co-evolutionary dynamics in a three-layer network. Negative information dissemination and vaccination are treated as separate decision-making processes. We then examine the combined effects of herd and risk motives on information dissemination and vaccination decisions through the lens of game theory. The microscopic Markov chain approach(MMCA) is used to describe the dynamic process and to derive the epidemic threshold. Simulation results indicate that increasing the cost of negative information dissemination and providing timely clarification can effectively control the epidemic. Furthermore, a phenomenon of diminishing marginal utility is observed as the cost of dissemination increases, suggesting that authorities do not need to overinvest in suppressing negative information. Conversely, reducing the cost of vaccination and increasing vaccine efficacy emerge as more effective strategies for outbreak control. In addition, we find that the scale of the epidemic is greater when the herd motive dominates behavioral decision-making. In conclusion, this study provides a new perspective for understanding the complexity of epidemic spreading by starting with the construction of different behavioral decisions.展开更多
The host intestinal microbiota has emerged as the third element in the interactions between hosts and enteric viruses,and potentially affects the infection processes of enteric viruses.However,the interaction of porci...The host intestinal microbiota has emerged as the third element in the interactions between hosts and enteric viruses,and potentially affects the infection processes of enteric viruses.However,the interaction of porcine enteric coronavirus with intestinal microorganisms during infection remains unclear.In this study,we used 16S-rRNA-based Illumina NovaSeq high-throughput sequencing to identify the changes in the intestinal microbiota of piglets mediated by porcine epidemic diarrhea virus(PEDV)infection and the effects of the alterations in intestinal bacteria on PEDV infection and its molecular mechanisms.The intestinal microbiota of PEDV-infected piglets had significantly less diversity than the healthy group and different bacterial community characteristics.Among the altered intestinal bacteria,the relative abundance of Clostridium perfringens was significantly increased in the PEDV-infected group.A strain of C.perfringens type A,named DQ21,was successfully isolated from the intestines of healthy piglets.The metabolites of swine C.perfringens type A strain DQ21 significantly enhanced PEDV replication in porcine intestinal epithelial cell clone J2(IPEC-J2)cells,and PEDV infection and pathogenicity in suckling piglets.Palmitic acid(PA)was identified as one of those metabolites with metabolomic technology,and significantly enhanced PEDV replication in IPEC-J2 cells and PEDV infection and pathogenicity in suckling piglets.PA also increased the neutralizing antibody titer in the immune sera of mice.Furthermore,PA mediated the palmitoylation of the PEDV S protein,which improved virion stability and membrane fusion,thereby enhancing viral infection.Overall,our study demonstrates a novel mechanism of PEDV infection,with implications for PEDV pathogenicity.展开更多
The cross-species infection of coronaviruses has resulted in several major epidemics since 2003.Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus(PEDV)is a devastating swine enteric coronavirus,which targets pigs as the only natural re...The cross-species infection of coronaviruses has resulted in several major epidemics since 2003.Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus(PEDV)is a devastating swine enteric coronavirus,which targets pigs as the only natural reservoir.In this study,the nucleic acid of PEDV was detected in rat fecal samples collected from pig farms.Further animal tests showed that PEDV can cause systemic infections in neonatal mice and rats via intracranial inoculation.The brain,lung,intestine and spleen were all targets for PEDV in rodents in contrast to the intestine being targeted in pigs.Morbidity and mortality vary via different infection routes.PEDV was also detectable in feces after infection,suggesting that the infected rodents were potential infectious sources.Moreover,the cerebral tropism of PEDV was verified in piglets via orally inoculation,which had not been identified before.In conclusion,our findings demonstrate that PEDV could cross the species barrier to infect mice and rats through different routes in experimental settings.Although it is highly devastating to piglets,PEDV changes the target organs and turns to be milder when meeting with new hosts.Based on these findings,more attention should be paid to the potential cross-species infection of PEDV.展开更多
Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus(PEDV)infection causes acute watery diarrhea in neonatal piglets,leading to substantial economic losses within the pig farming industry.This study demonstrates that clofazimine(CFZ)signi...Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus(PEDV)infection causes acute watery diarrhea in neonatal piglets,leading to substantial economic losses within the pig farming industry.This study demonstrates that clofazimine(CFZ)significantly inhibits PEDV replication in a dose-dependent manner in vitro,with negligible cytotoxicity.Findings from our time-of-addition assays indicate that CFZ effectively disrupts multiple stages of the viral infection cycle.Using a CoV-RdRp-Gluc reporter system,we evaluated the potency of CFZ against PEDV RNA-dependent RNA polymerase(RdRp),and determined a low IC50 value of 0.1364μM.Molecular docking studies further confirmed that CFZ has high binding affinity at the active sites of the spike protein and RdRp protein in PEDV.Transcriptome analysis of Vero E6 cells,with and without CFZ treatment,revealed a significant change in transcriptional activity at 8 h postinfection(hpi).Moreover,the simultaneous application of CFZ and nucleoside analogs showed enhanced the anti-PEDV effect of CFZ in vitro.Our study underscores the potential of CFZ as a viable therapeutic agent against PEDV.展开更多
In this paper,based on the SVIQR model we develop a stochastic epidemic model with multiple vaccinations and time delay.Firstly,we prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution of the model,and co...In this paper,based on the SVIQR model we develop a stochastic epidemic model with multiple vaccinations and time delay.Firstly,we prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution of the model,and construct suitable functions to obtain sufficient conditions for disease extinction.Secondly,in order to effectively control the spread of the disease,appropriate control strategies are formulated by using optimal control theory.Finally,the results are verified by numerical simulation.展开更多
Edo-period historical records and documents preserved a substantial number of images,many of which are related to epidemic outbreaks.Through systematic collation and categorical analysis,this study uses the chronologi...Edo-period historical records and documents preserved a substantial number of images,many of which are related to epidemic outbreaks.Through systematic collation and categorical analysis,this study uses the chronological and thematic characteristics of these images as a framework to examine the response mechanisms of the Japanese government and public during infectious disease pandemics in the Edo period,as well as the multidimensional impacts of epidemics on social economy,culture,and customs.Illustrations of smallpox in medical texts reveal the developmental trajectory of Japan’s traditional medical knowledge system,while drawings in essays and diaries reflect public fear and non-medical cognitive patterns during cholera outbreaks.Epidemic-themed paintings not only document cholera treatment protocols by the government and medical professionals,as well as grassroots prevention and treatment practices for measles,but also vividly depict social dynamics during crises.Images related to epidemics in advertising reflect the prosperity of the pharmaceutical industry in the Edo period,while depictions in folding screens,ukiyozoushi and the occupational illustrations demonstrate societal customs for epidemic response.Collectively,the Edo-period epidemic crises profoundly shaped Japan’s medical system,economic structure,cultural forms,folk traditions,and public psychology,prompting the government,medical professionals,and civilians to develop distinct era-specific social coping mechanisms.展开更多
This paper investigates a new SEIQR(susceptible–exposed–infected–quarantined–recovered) epidemic model with quarantine mechanism on heterogeneous complex networks. Firstly, the nonlinear SEIQR epidemic spreading d...This paper investigates a new SEIQR(susceptible–exposed–infected–quarantined–recovered) epidemic model with quarantine mechanism on heterogeneous complex networks. Firstly, the nonlinear SEIQR epidemic spreading dynamic differential coupling model is proposed. Then, by using mean-field theory and the next-generation matrix method, the equilibriums and basic reproduction number are derived. Theoretical results indicate that the basic reproduction number significantly relies on model parameters and topology of the underlying networks. In addition, the globally asymptotic stability of equilibrium and the permanence of the disease are proved in detail by the Routh–Hurwitz criterion, Lyapunov method and La Salle's invariance principle. Furthermore, we find that the quarantine mechanism, that is the quarantine rate(γ1, γ2), has a significant effect on epidemic spreading through sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction number and model parameters. Meanwhile, the optimal control model of quarantined rate and analysis method are proposed, which can optimize the government control strategies and reduce the number of infected individual. Finally, numerical simulations are given to verify the correctness of theoretical results and a practice application is proposed to predict and control the spreading of COVID-19.展开更多
This paper is devoted to investigating the spreading speed of a time-space periodic epidemic model with vital dynamics and standard incidence in discrete media. We establish the existence of the leftward and rightward...This paper is devoted to investigating the spreading speed of a time-space periodic epidemic model with vital dynamics and standard incidence in discrete media. We establish the existence of the leftward and rightward spreading speeds for the infective individuals, which can be used to estimate how fast the disease spreads. To overcome the difficulty arising from the lack of comparison principle for such time-space periodic nonmonotone systems, our proof is mainly based on constructing a series of scalar time-space periodic equations, establishing the spreading speeds for such auxiliary equations and using comparison methods. It may be the first work to study the spreading speed for time-space periodic non-monotone systems.展开更多
It is common to observe the epidemic risk perception(ERP)and a decline in subjective well-being(SWB)in the context of public health events,such as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19).However,there have been few studie...It is common to observe the epidemic risk perception(ERP)and a decline in subjective well-being(SWB)in the context of public health events,such as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19).However,there have been few studies exploring the impact of individuals’ERP within living space on their SWB,especially from a geographical and daily activity perspective after the resumption of work and other activities following a wave of the pandemic.In this paper,we conducted a study with 789 participants in urban China,measuring their ERP within living space and examining its influence on their SWB using path analysis.The results indicated that individuals’ERP within their living space had a significant negative effect on their SWB.The density of certain types of facilities within their living space,such as bus stops,subway stations,restaurants,fast food shops,convenience shops,hospitals,and public toilets,had a significantly negative impact on their SWB,mediated by their ERP within living space.Additionally,participation in out-of-home work and other activities not only increased individuals’ERP within living space,but also strengthened its negative effect on their SWB.展开更多
This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemi...This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.展开更多
Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingda...Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingdao City from 2010 to 2022.Descriptive epidemiologic,seasonal decomposition,spatial autocorrelation,and spatio-temporal cluster analyses were performed.Results A total of 2,220 patients with HFRS were reported over the study period,with an average annual incidence of 1.89/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 2.52%.The male:female ratio was 2.8:1.75.3%of patients were aged between 16 and 60 years old,75.3%of patients were farmers,and 11.6%had both“three red”and“three pain”symptoms.The HFRS epidemic showed two-peak seasonality:the primary fall-winter peak and the minor spring peak.The HFRS epidemic presented highly spatially heterogeneous,street/township-level hot spots that were mostly distributed in Huangdao,Pingdu,and Jiaozhou.The spatio-temporal cluster analysis revealed three cluster areas in Qingdao City that were located in the south of Huangdao District during the fall-winter peak.Conclusion The distribution of HFRS in Qingdao exhibited periodic,seasonal,and regional characteristics,with high spatial clustering heterogeneity.The typical symptoms of“three red”and“three pain”in patients with HFRS were not obvious.展开更多
During public health emergencies,the diffusion of negative information can exacerbate the transmission of adverse emotions,such as fear and anxiety.These emotions can adversely affect immune function and,consequently,...During public health emergencies,the diffusion of negative information can exacerbate the transmission of adverse emotions,such as fear and anxiety.These emotions can adversely affect immune function and,consequently,influence the spread of the epidemic.In this study,we established a coupled model incorporating environmental factors to explore the coevolution dynamic process of information-emotions-epidemic dynamics in activity-driven multiplex networks.In this model,environmental factors refer to the external conditions or pressures that affect the spread of information,emotions,and epidemics.These factors include media coverage,public opinion,and the prevalence of diseases in the neighborhood.These layers are dynamically cross-coupled,where the environmental factors in the information layer are influenced by the emotional layer;the higher the levels of anxious states among neighboring individuals,the greater the likelihood of information diffusion.Although environmental factors in the emotional layer are influenced by both the information and epidemic layers,they come from the factors of global information and the proportion of local infections among surrounding neighbors.Subsequently,we utilized the microscopic Markov chain approach to describe the dynamic processes,thereby obtaining the epidemic threshold.Finally,conclusions are drawn through numerical modeling and analysis.The conclusions suggest that when negative information increases,the probability of the transmission of anxious states across the population increases.The transmission of anxious states increases the final size of the disease and decreases its outbreak threshold.Reducing the impact of environmental factors at both the informational and emotional levels is beneficial for controlling the scale of the spread of the epidemic.Our findings can provide a reference for improving public health awareness and behavioral decision-making,mitigating the adverse impacts of anxious states,and ultimately controlling the spread of epidemics.展开更多
We investigate the impact of pairwise and group interactions on the spread of epidemics through an activity-driven model based on time-dependent networks.The effects of pairwise/group interaction proportion and pairwi...We investigate the impact of pairwise and group interactions on the spread of epidemics through an activity-driven model based on time-dependent networks.The effects of pairwise/group interaction proportion and pairwise/group interaction intensity are explored by extensive simulation and theoretical analysis.It is demonstrated that altering the group interaction proportion can either hinder or enhance the spread of epidemics,depending on the relative social intensity of group and pairwise interactions.As the group interaction proportion decreases,the impact of reducing group social intensity diminishes.The ratio of group and pairwise social intensity can affect the effect of group interaction proportion on the scale of infection.A weak heterogeneous activity distribution can raise the epidemic threshold,and reduce the scale of infection.These results benefit the design of epidemic control strategy.展开更多
The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining hall...The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining halls and dorms.They move from one place to another.To simulate such environments,we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks.In close environments,maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention.It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms,adopting staggered dining hours,decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on.Their real-world influence remains uncertain.With numerical simulations,we obtain epidemic thresholds.The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.展开更多
Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,a...Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,and to explore future interventions.Methods The epidemiological,behavioral,and population census data from multiple sources were analyzed to extract inputs for an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)epidemic model(AEM).Baseline curves,derived from historical trends in HIV prevalence,were used,and the AEM was employed to examine future intervention scenarios.Results In 2015,the modeled data suggested an adult HIV prevalence of 0.191%in Sichuan,with an estimated 128,766 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,983 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Considering current high-risk behaviors,the model predicts an increase in the adult prevalence to 0.306%by 2025,projecting an estimated 212,168 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,555 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Conclusion Heterosexual transmission will likely emerge as the primary mode of AIDS transmission in Sichuan.Furthermore,we anticipate a stabilization in the incidence of AIDS with a concurrent increase in prevalence.Implementing comprehensive intervention measures aimed at high-risk groups could effectively alleviate the spread of AIDS in Sichuan.展开更多
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe global disasters,highlighting the importance of understanding the details and trends of epidemic transmission in order to introduce efficient intervention measures.While the wid...The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe global disasters,highlighting the importance of understanding the details and trends of epidemic transmission in order to introduce efficient intervention measures.While the widely used deterministic compartmental models have qualitatively presented continuous “analytical” insight and captured some transmission features,their treatment usually lacks spatiotemporal variation.Here,we propose a stochastic individual dynamical(SID)model to mimic the random and heterogeneous nature of epidemic propagation.The SID model provides a unifying framework for representing the spatiotemporal variations of epidemic development by tracking the movements of each individual.Using this model,we reproduce the infection curves for COVID-19 cases in different areas globally and find the local dynamics and heterogeneity at the individual level that affect the disease outbreak.The macroscopic trend of virus spreading is clearly illustrated from the microscopic perspective,enabling a quantitative assessment of different interventions.Seemingly,this model is also applicable to studying stochastic processes at the “meter scale”,e.g.,human society’s collective dynamics.展开更多
Based on the biological characteristics of Solenopsis invicta and the structural characteristics of its ant nest,a fast and efficient closed treatment device was developed.Compared with the simple chemical treatment c...Based on the biological characteristics of Solenopsis invicta and the structural characteristics of its ant nest,a fast and efficient closed treatment device was developed.Compared with the simple chemical treatment commonly used at present,the developed treatment device(the ant nest control cover)is a fast and efficient method to exterminate S.invicta in 7 d,featured by short course,quick results and good effect.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Project No.2023YFC2307500).
文摘Influenza,an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by the influenza virus,exhibits distinct seasonal patterns in China,with peak activity occurring in winter and spring in northern regions,and in winter and summer in southern areas[1].The World Health Organization(WHO)emphasizes that early warning and epidemic intensity assessments are critical public health strategies for influenza prevention and control.Internet-based flu surveillance,with real-time data and low costs,effectively complements traditional methods.The Baidu Search Index,which reflects flu-related queries,strongly correlates with influenza trends,aiding in regional activity assessment and outbreak tracking[2].
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(61911530398,12231012)Consultancy Project by the Chinese Academy of Engineering(2022-JB-06,2023-JB-12)+3 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province of China(2021J01621)Special Projects of the Central Government Guiding Local Science and Technology Development(2021L3018)Royal Society of Edinburgh(RSE1832)Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council(EP/W522521/1).
文摘A stochastic epidemic model with two age groups is established in this study,in which the susceptible(S),the exposed(E),the infected(I),the hospitalized(H)and the recovered(R)are involved within the total population,the aging rates between two age groups are set to be constant.The existence-and-uniqueness of global positive solution is firstly showed.Then,by constructing several appropriate Lyapunov functions and using the high-dimensional Itô’s formula,the sufficient conditions for the stochastic extinction and stochastic persistence of the exposed individuals and the infected individuals are obtained.The stochastic extinction indicator and the stochastic persistence indicator are less-valued expressions compared with the basic reproduction number.Meanwhile,the main results of this study are modified into multi-age groups.Furthermore,by using the surveillance data for Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou COVID-19 epidemic is chosen to carry out the numerical simulations,which show that the age group of the population plays the vital role when studying infectious diseases.
基金supported and funded by the Deanship of Scientific Research at Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University(IMSIU)(grant number IMSIU-DDRSP2501).
文摘The numerical approximation of stochastic partial differential equations(SPDEs),particularly those including q-diffusion,poses considerable challenges due to the requirements for high-order precision,stability amongst random perturbations,and processing efficiency.Because of their simplicity,conventional numerical techniques like the Euler-Maruyama method are frequently employed to solve stochastic differential equations;nonetheless,they may have low-order accuracy and lower stability in stiff or high-resolution situations.This study proposes a novel computational scheme for solving SPDEs arising from a stochastic SEIR model with q-diffusion and a general incidence rate function.A proposed computational scheme can be used to solve stochastic partial differential equations.For spatial discretization,a compact scheme is chosen.The compact scheme can provide a sixth-order accurate solution.The proposed scheme can be considered an extension of the Euler Maruyama method.Stability and consistency in the mean square sense are also provided.For application purposes,the stochastic SEIR model is considered using q-diffusion effects.The scheme is used to solve the stochastic model and compared with the Euler-Maruyama method.The scheme is also compared with nonstandard finite difference method for solving deterministic models.In both cases,it performs better than existing schemes.Incorporating q-diffusion further enhanced the model’s ability to represent realistic spatial-temporal disease dynamics,especially in scenarios where classical diffusion is insufficient.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 72174121)the Program for Professor of Special Appointment (Eastern Scholar) at Shanghai Institutions of Higher Learning, and the Soft Science Research Project of Shanghai (Grant No. 22692112600)。
文摘Information plays a crucial role in guiding behavioral decisions during public health emergencies. Individuals communicate to acquire relevant knowledge about an epidemic, which influences their decisions to adopt protective measures.However, whether to disseminate specific information is also a behavioral decision. In light of this understanding, we develop a coupled information–vaccination–epidemic model to depict these co-evolutionary dynamics in a three-layer network. Negative information dissemination and vaccination are treated as separate decision-making processes. We then examine the combined effects of herd and risk motives on information dissemination and vaccination decisions through the lens of game theory. The microscopic Markov chain approach(MMCA) is used to describe the dynamic process and to derive the epidemic threshold. Simulation results indicate that increasing the cost of negative information dissemination and providing timely clarification can effectively control the epidemic. Furthermore, a phenomenon of diminishing marginal utility is observed as the cost of dissemination increases, suggesting that authorities do not need to overinvest in suppressing negative information. Conversely, reducing the cost of vaccination and increasing vaccine efficacy emerge as more effective strategies for outbreak control. In addition, we find that the scale of the epidemic is greater when the herd motive dominates behavioral decision-making. In conclusion, this study provides a new perspective for understanding the complexity of epidemic spreading by starting with the construction of different behavioral decisions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U23A20236)the Key Research and Development Program,Guidance Projects of Heilongjiang Province,China(GZ20220029)。
文摘The host intestinal microbiota has emerged as the third element in the interactions between hosts and enteric viruses,and potentially affects the infection processes of enteric viruses.However,the interaction of porcine enteric coronavirus with intestinal microorganisms during infection remains unclear.In this study,we used 16S-rRNA-based Illumina NovaSeq high-throughput sequencing to identify the changes in the intestinal microbiota of piglets mediated by porcine epidemic diarrhea virus(PEDV)infection and the effects of the alterations in intestinal bacteria on PEDV infection and its molecular mechanisms.The intestinal microbiota of PEDV-infected piglets had significantly less diversity than the healthy group and different bacterial community characteristics.Among the altered intestinal bacteria,the relative abundance of Clostridium perfringens was significantly increased in the PEDV-infected group.A strain of C.perfringens type A,named DQ21,was successfully isolated from the intestines of healthy piglets.The metabolites of swine C.perfringens type A strain DQ21 significantly enhanced PEDV replication in porcine intestinal epithelial cell clone J2(IPEC-J2)cells,and PEDV infection and pathogenicity in suckling piglets.Palmitic acid(PA)was identified as one of those metabolites with metabolomic technology,and significantly enhanced PEDV replication in IPEC-J2 cells and PEDV infection and pathogenicity in suckling piglets.PA also increased the neutralizing antibody titer in the immune sera of mice.Furthermore,PA mediated the palmitoylation of the PEDV S protein,which improved virion stability and membrane fusion,thereby enhancing viral infection.Overall,our study demonstrates a novel mechanism of PEDV infection,with implications for PEDV pathogenicity.
基金supported by the Basic Research Innovation Group Project of Gansu Province(No.25JRRA434)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U22A20522).
文摘The cross-species infection of coronaviruses has resulted in several major epidemics since 2003.Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus(PEDV)is a devastating swine enteric coronavirus,which targets pigs as the only natural reservoir.In this study,the nucleic acid of PEDV was detected in rat fecal samples collected from pig farms.Further animal tests showed that PEDV can cause systemic infections in neonatal mice and rats via intracranial inoculation.The brain,lung,intestine and spleen were all targets for PEDV in rodents in contrast to the intestine being targeted in pigs.Morbidity and mortality vary via different infection routes.PEDV was also detectable in feces after infection,suggesting that the infected rodents were potential infectious sources.Moreover,the cerebral tropism of PEDV was verified in piglets via orally inoculation,which had not been identified before.In conclusion,our findings demonstrate that PEDV could cross the species barrier to infect mice and rats through different routes in experimental settings.Although it is highly devastating to piglets,PEDV changes the target organs and turns to be milder when meeting with new hosts.Based on these findings,more attention should be paid to the potential cross-species infection of PEDV.
基金supported by a grant from the National Key Research and Development Plans of China(No.2021YFD1800401)to Zhe Wangthe National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.32070128)to Zhe Wang+5 种基金the Shanghai Biomedical Science and Technology Support Special Project(No.21S11900200)to Zhe Wangthe National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.31472211)to ZhiBiao Yangthe Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(No.21ZR1433900)to Zhibiao Yangthe National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFD1800805)to Yanjun Zhouthe Pinduoduo-China Agricultural University Research Fund(PC2024A01003)to Xiangfeng Wangthe Biomedicine and Technology Supporting Project of the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Plan(Grant No.22S11902200,China)to Tao Sun.
文摘Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus(PEDV)infection causes acute watery diarrhea in neonatal piglets,leading to substantial economic losses within the pig farming industry.This study demonstrates that clofazimine(CFZ)significantly inhibits PEDV replication in a dose-dependent manner in vitro,with negligible cytotoxicity.Findings from our time-of-addition assays indicate that CFZ effectively disrupts multiple stages of the viral infection cycle.Using a CoV-RdRp-Gluc reporter system,we evaluated the potency of CFZ against PEDV RNA-dependent RNA polymerase(RdRp),and determined a low IC50 value of 0.1364μM.Molecular docking studies further confirmed that CFZ has high binding affinity at the active sites of the spike protein and RdRp protein in PEDV.Transcriptome analysis of Vero E6 cells,with and without CFZ treatment,revealed a significant change in transcriptional activity at 8 h postinfection(hpi).Moreover,the simultaneous application of CFZ and nucleoside analogs showed enhanced the anti-PEDV effect of CFZ in vitro.Our study underscores the potential of CFZ as a viable therapeutic agent against PEDV.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.3122025090)。
文摘In this paper,based on the SVIQR model we develop a stochastic epidemic model with multiple vaccinations and time delay.Firstly,we prove the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution of the model,and construct suitable functions to obtain sufficient conditions for disease extinction.Secondly,in order to effectively control the spread of the disease,appropriate control strategies are formulated by using optimal control theory.Finally,the results are verified by numerical simulation.
基金financed by the grant from the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China(No.20&ZD222).
文摘Edo-period historical records and documents preserved a substantial number of images,many of which are related to epidemic outbreaks.Through systematic collation and categorical analysis,this study uses the chronological and thematic characteristics of these images as a framework to examine the response mechanisms of the Japanese government and public during infectious disease pandemics in the Edo period,as well as the multidimensional impacts of epidemics on social economy,culture,and customs.Illustrations of smallpox in medical texts reveal the developmental trajectory of Japan’s traditional medical knowledge system,while drawings in essays and diaries reflect public fear and non-medical cognitive patterns during cholera outbreaks.Epidemic-themed paintings not only document cholera treatment protocols by the government and medical professionals,as well as grassroots prevention and treatment practices for measles,but also vividly depict social dynamics during crises.Images related to epidemics in advertising reflect the prosperity of the pharmaceutical industry in the Edo period,while depictions in folding screens,ukiyozoushi and the occupational illustrations demonstrate societal customs for epidemic response.Collectively,the Edo-period epidemic crises profoundly shaped Japan’s medical system,economic structure,cultural forms,folk traditions,and public psychology,prompting the government,medical professionals,and civilians to develop distinct era-specific social coping mechanisms.
基金Project supported the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province, China (Grant No. LQN25F030011)the Fundamental Research Project of Hangzhou Dianzi University (Grant No. KYS065624391)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 61573148)the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province, China (Grant No. 2019A050520001)。
文摘This paper investigates a new SEIQR(susceptible–exposed–infected–quarantined–recovered) epidemic model with quarantine mechanism on heterogeneous complex networks. Firstly, the nonlinear SEIQR epidemic spreading dynamic differential coupling model is proposed. Then, by using mean-field theory and the next-generation matrix method, the equilibriums and basic reproduction number are derived. Theoretical results indicate that the basic reproduction number significantly relies on model parameters and topology of the underlying networks. In addition, the globally asymptotic stability of equilibrium and the permanence of the disease are proved in detail by the Routh–Hurwitz criterion, Lyapunov method and La Salle's invariance principle. Furthermore, we find that the quarantine mechanism, that is the quarantine rate(γ1, γ2), has a significant effect on epidemic spreading through sensitivity analysis of basic reproduction number and model parameters. Meanwhile, the optimal control model of quarantined rate and analysis method are proposed, which can optimize the government control strategies and reduce the number of infected individual. Finally, numerical simulations are given to verify the correctness of theoretical results and a practice application is proposed to predict and control the spreading of COVID-19.
基金supported by the Natural Science Basic Research Program of Shanxi(Grant No.2024JC-YBMS-025)the Innovation Capability Support Program of Shanxi(Grant No.2024RS-CXTD-88)。
文摘This paper is devoted to investigating the spreading speed of a time-space periodic epidemic model with vital dynamics and standard incidence in discrete media. We establish the existence of the leftward and rightward spreading speeds for the infective individuals, which can be used to estimate how fast the disease spreads. To overcome the difficulty arising from the lack of comparison principle for such time-space periodic nonmonotone systems, our proof is mainly based on constructing a series of scalar time-space periodic equations, establishing the spreading speeds for such auxiliary equations and using comparison methods. It may be the first work to study the spreading speed for time-space periodic non-monotone systems.
基金Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42271234,42101246,42101223)Hong Kong Research Grants Council General Research Fund Grant(No.14605920,14611621,14606922)+1 种基金Hong Kong Research Grants Council Collaborative Research Fund Grant(No.C4023-20GF)Hong Kong Research Grants Council Research Matching Grants RMG(No.8601219,8601242)。
文摘It is common to observe the epidemic risk perception(ERP)and a decline in subjective well-being(SWB)in the context of public health events,such as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19).However,there have been few studies exploring the impact of individuals’ERP within living space on their SWB,especially from a geographical and daily activity perspective after the resumption of work and other activities following a wave of the pandemic.In this paper,we conducted a study with 789 participants in urban China,measuring their ERP within living space and examining its influence on their SWB using path analysis.The results indicated that individuals’ERP within their living space had a significant negative effect on their SWB.The density of certain types of facilities within their living space,such as bus stops,subway stations,restaurants,fast food shops,convenience shops,hospitals,and public toilets,had a significantly negative impact on their SWB,mediated by their ERP within living space.Additionally,participation in out-of-home work and other activities not only increased individuals’ERP within living space,but also strengthened its negative effect on their SWB.
基金the support of Prince Sultan University for paying the article processing charges(APC)of this publication.
文摘This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.
基金supported by the Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program,the Research and Development of Standards and Standardization of Nomenclature in the Field of Public Health-Research Project on the Development of the Disciplines of Public Health and Preventive Medicine[242402]the Shandong Medical and Health Science and Technology Development Plan[202112050731].
文摘Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingdao City from 2010 to 2022.Descriptive epidemiologic,seasonal decomposition,spatial autocorrelation,and spatio-temporal cluster analyses were performed.Results A total of 2,220 patients with HFRS were reported over the study period,with an average annual incidence of 1.89/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 2.52%.The male:female ratio was 2.8:1.75.3%of patients were aged between 16 and 60 years old,75.3%of patients were farmers,and 11.6%had both“three red”and“three pain”symptoms.The HFRS epidemic showed two-peak seasonality:the primary fall-winter peak and the minor spring peak.The HFRS epidemic presented highly spatially heterogeneous,street/township-level hot spots that were mostly distributed in Huangdao,Pingdu,and Jiaozhou.The spatio-temporal cluster analysis revealed three cluster areas in Qingdao City that were located in the south of Huangdao District during the fall-winter peak.Conclusion The distribution of HFRS in Qingdao exhibited periodic,seasonal,and regional characteristics,with high spatial clustering heterogeneity.The typical symptoms of“three red”and“three pain”in patients with HFRS were not obvious.
基金partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72174121)the Program for Professor of Special Appointment(Eastern Scholar)at Shanghai Institutions of Higher Learningthe Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(Grant No.21ZR1444100)。
文摘During public health emergencies,the diffusion of negative information can exacerbate the transmission of adverse emotions,such as fear and anxiety.These emotions can adversely affect immune function and,consequently,influence the spread of the epidemic.In this study,we established a coupled model incorporating environmental factors to explore the coevolution dynamic process of information-emotions-epidemic dynamics in activity-driven multiplex networks.In this model,environmental factors refer to the external conditions or pressures that affect the spread of information,emotions,and epidemics.These factors include media coverage,public opinion,and the prevalence of diseases in the neighborhood.These layers are dynamically cross-coupled,where the environmental factors in the information layer are influenced by the emotional layer;the higher the levels of anxious states among neighboring individuals,the greater the likelihood of information diffusion.Although environmental factors in the emotional layer are influenced by both the information and epidemic layers,they come from the factors of global information and the proportion of local infections among surrounding neighbors.Subsequently,we utilized the microscopic Markov chain approach to describe the dynamic processes,thereby obtaining the epidemic threshold.Finally,conclusions are drawn through numerical modeling and analysis.The conclusions suggest that when negative information increases,the probability of the transmission of anxious states across the population increases.The transmission of anxious states increases the final size of the disease and decreases its outbreak threshold.Reducing the impact of environmental factors at both the informational and emotional levels is beneficial for controlling the scale of the spread of the epidemic.Our findings can provide a reference for improving public health awareness and behavioral decision-making,mitigating the adverse impacts of anxious states,and ultimately controlling the spread of epidemics.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12072340)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2022M720727)the Jiangsu Funding Program for Excellent Postdoctoral Talent(Grant No.2022ZB130).
文摘We investigate the impact of pairwise and group interactions on the spread of epidemics through an activity-driven model based on time-dependent networks.The effects of pairwise/group interaction proportion and pairwise/group interaction intensity are explored by extensive simulation and theoretical analysis.It is demonstrated that altering the group interaction proportion can either hinder or enhance the spread of epidemics,depending on the relative social intensity of group and pairwise interactions.As the group interaction proportion decreases,the impact of reducing group social intensity diminishes.The ratio of group and pairwise social intensity can affect the effect of group interaction proportion on the scale of infection.A weak heterogeneous activity distribution can raise the epidemic threshold,and reduce the scale of infection.These results benefit the design of epidemic control strategy.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.61871234).
文摘The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining halls and dorms.They move from one place to another.To simulate such environments,we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks.In close environments,maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention.It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms,adopting staggered dining hours,decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on.Their real-world influence remains uncertain.With numerical simulations,we obtain epidemic thresholds.The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.
基金funded by the Humanities and Social Sciences Research Project of Ministry of Education of China[Grant ID:18YJA840018].
文摘Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,and to explore future interventions.Methods The epidemiological,behavioral,and population census data from multiple sources were analyzed to extract inputs for an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)epidemic model(AEM).Baseline curves,derived from historical trends in HIV prevalence,were used,and the AEM was employed to examine future intervention scenarios.Results In 2015,the modeled data suggested an adult HIV prevalence of 0.191%in Sichuan,with an estimated 128,766 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,983 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Considering current high-risk behaviors,the model predicts an increase in the adult prevalence to 0.306%by 2025,projecting an estimated 212,168 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,555 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Conclusion Heterosexual transmission will likely emerge as the primary mode of AIDS transmission in Sichuan.Furthermore,we anticipate a stabilization in the incidence of AIDS with a concurrent increase in prevalence.Implementing comprehensive intervention measures aimed at high-risk groups could effectively alleviate the spread of AIDS in Sichuan.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.22273034)the Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling of Nanjing University。
文摘The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe global disasters,highlighting the importance of understanding the details and trends of epidemic transmission in order to introduce efficient intervention measures.While the widely used deterministic compartmental models have qualitatively presented continuous “analytical” insight and captured some transmission features,their treatment usually lacks spatiotemporal variation.Here,we propose a stochastic individual dynamical(SID)model to mimic the random and heterogeneous nature of epidemic propagation.The SID model provides a unifying framework for representing the spatiotemporal variations of epidemic development by tracking the movements of each individual.Using this model,we reproduce the infection curves for COVID-19 cases in different areas globally and find the local dynamics and heterogeneity at the individual level that affect the disease outbreak.The macroscopic trend of virus spreading is clearly illustrated from the microscopic perspective,enabling a quantitative assessment of different interventions.Seemingly,this model is also applicable to studying stochastic processes at the “meter scale”,e.g.,human society’s collective dynamics.
基金Science and Technology Research Program of Xiamen Customs(2020XK08).
文摘Based on the biological characteristics of Solenopsis invicta and the structural characteristics of its ant nest,a fast and efficient closed treatment device was developed.Compared with the simple chemical treatment commonly used at present,the developed treatment device(the ant nest control cover)is a fast and efficient method to exterminate S.invicta in 7 d,featured by short course,quick results and good effect.
