Changes in the energy price system will determine the direction of evolution of the energy industry structure.As a country where coal is the dominant energy source,what is the effect of coal price fluctuations on Chin...Changes in the energy price system will determine the direction of evolution of the energy industry structure.As a country where coal is the dominant energy source,what is the effect of coal price fluctuations on China’s industry development costs and energy consumption structure?To investigate this problem,this paper utilized an economy–energy–environment computable general equilibrium model.In this study,four aspects were analyzed:Energy supply side,proportion of renewable energy consumption,macroeconomy,and changes in CO_(2) emissions.The results of this study show that an increase of 10%–20%in coal prices contributes to a shift into using renewable energy,which leads to energy saving and emission reduction.Renewable energy and clean energy rose by 0.57%–4.47%in the energy structure,but this has a certain negative impact on the macroeconomy.The gross domestic product(GDP)fell by 0.07%–0.18%.As a result,the decline in coal prices became an obstacle to renewable energy substitution and energy conservation.In addition,we put forward policy suggestions according to the results in energy,economic,and environmental effects.展开更多
With the rise of coal price, the proportion of loss-making enterprises shows an upward trend in China＇s coal industry. This paper uses Altman Z-Score model to measure financial risk of 19 listed companies in the coal...With the rise of coal price, the proportion of loss-making enterprises shows an upward trend in China＇s coal industry. This paper uses Altman Z-Score model to measure financial risk of 19 listed companies in the coal industry in A-share market from 1995 to 2007. Empirical results show that Year-Based price index of coal price has a negative correlation with the financial risk but has no significance, and coal chain price has a significant negative correlation with the financial risk. Further research indicates that enterprises increase bad investment, and a lot of debts caused by short-term rise in coal prices. The results also show that the financial risk in the coal industry declines with the rise of GDP growth rate and increases with the rise of inflation rate.展开更多
It has long been postulated that a relationship exists between commodity price cycles and fatalities in the mining industry.Previous studies have found only weak correlations in this area.This study analyses the fatal...It has long been postulated that a relationship exists between commodity price cycles and fatalities in the mining industry.Previous studies have found only weak correlations in this area.This study analyses the fatalities recorded in coal mines over the period 1985-2016 in the State of Queensland as a function of thermal coal price variation.The study finds that the relationship between fatalities and coal prices is not linear.One to two fatalities occur in most years independent of the thermal coal price.When the price of coal falls below AUD 55/tonne(non-inflation adjusted),the likelihood of an incident involving multiple fatalities increases.The probability can be estimated at 2 in 18 events(equivalent to 11%).This paper postulates that in difficult economic times,mining companies react by downsizing direct employees.If not carefully managed,this can result in loss of knowledge around safety systems,and reduced effectiveness of safety supervision.Because of labour cost advantages,some jobs previously undertaken by direct employees will be replaced by contractors.Increased contractor numbers contribute to increased risk of fatalities occurring,as contractors are over-represented in accident categories involving vehicle accidents,tire handling and crushing incidents.Mine inspectorates,mining,and mining contractor companies need to be especially vigilant to enforce health and safety management systems during periods of low coal prices.展开更多
This paper investigates China's coal price volatility spreaders(CPVSs)from the supply side to locate the volatility source since coal price volatility may destabilize many downstream products'prices or even br...This paper investigates China's coal price volatility spreaders(CPVSs)from the supply side to locate the volatility source since coal price volatility may destabilize many downstream products'prices or even bring uncertainties to macroeconomic output.Especially in the carbon neutrality context,China's coal market is being reconstructed and responding to imbalances between supply and demand;identifying the CPVSs helps alleviate rising market instability and prevent energy-induced system risk.To achieve this objective,we explore causalities among 938 weekly coal prices reported by different coal-producing areas of China from 2006.9.4 to 2021.7.12 using the transfer entropy method.Then,coal price volatility influence is quantified to identify the CPVSs by conjointly using complex network theory and a rank aggregation method.The validity test demonstrates that the proposed hybrid method efficiently identifies the CPVSs as it correlates to many price determinants,e.g.,electricity and coal consumption and generation.The empirical results show that causalities among coal prices changed dramatically in 2016,2018,and 2020,affected by coal decapacity and carbon neutrality policies.Before 2018,coal-producing provinces with strong demand for coal and electricity,e.g.,Jiangxi,Chongqing,and Sichuan,were CPVSs;after 2019,those with comparative advantages in coal supply,e.g.,Gansu and Ningxia,were CPVSs.Overall,the coal market is unstable and sensitive to energy policy and external shocks.Policymakers and market participants are recommended to monitor and manage the CPVSs to improve energy security,avoid policy-induced instability and prevent risks caused by coal price fluctuations.展开更多
Coal is essential to ensure China’s energy security.The sudden or gradual change of coal price reflects the degree of disequilibrium or expected disequilibrium of coal supply and demand,which will not be conducive to...Coal is essential to ensure China’s energy security.The sudden or gradual change of coal price reflects the degree of disequilibrium or expected disequilibrium of coal supply and demand,which will not be conducive to energy security.Therefore,it is important to analyze the change points of coal price and explore the reason of the price fluctuation.This paper analyses the coal price from January2008 to June 2019 as the perspective of the financial market.Firstly,the PPM-DBSCAN model is used to identify the mutation point of coal price fluctuation.Secondly,path analysis is used to extract the core driving factors that affect coal price.Thirdly,the authors construct a time-varying and time-lag effect analysis model for structural changes of coal price based on the TVP-VAR model.The results show that there are 11 mutation points of coal price fluctuation.Financial market factors,coal supply and demand and alternative factors are the reasons of coal price mutation.The authors find that the imbalance of coal supply and demand in traditional view cannot fully explain the fluctuation of coal price.The impact of the financial market and non-thermal power generation have more influence on the coal price.展开更多
If assortment priee parity of Clase coking coal and its qtalty price danrcnee is nonreasonable, it deren't gulde in Anprotrig tbe quallry metaliurgical coking coal and may be influence theeconomic benefit of me...If assortment priee parity of Clase coking coal and its qtalty price danrcnee is nonreasonable, it deren't gulde in Anprotrig tbe quallry metaliurgical coking coal and may be influence theeconomic benefit of metallurgical enterprises. This paper propose the principles and mathematicmodel for determination aseortment party of clean cokingcoal and its quality difference of ash content in clean coking coal in order to urge wasbenes into producing superior clean coking cleal whichis under condition of consideration both interest waskeries and interest metallurgicai industry. It canbe used as a method in theory to make price strategies under condition of socialism maket economicfor washeries of clean coking coal展开更多
In order to make power price truly reflect the cost of electric power and a reasonable profit without making the price unaffordable to the public, the government would have to adopt measures including tax reduction, s...In order to make power price truly reflect the cost of electric power and a reasonable profit without making the price unaffordable to the public, the government would have to adopt measures including tax reduction, surcharge reduction, debt relief and coal price reduction.展开更多
In this study, a coal pricing model for Turkey is developed employing Granger causality and cointegration analysis by using monthly data between January 2003 and April 2009. Empirical results based on Granger causalit...In this study, a coal pricing model for Turkey is developed employing Granger causality and cointegration analysis by using monthly data between January 2003 and April 2009. Empirical results based on Granger causality tests indicate that foreign coal futures prices and domestic consumer price index for energy sector can be used as the leading indica- tors for domestic coal prices for Turkey. An error correction model for Turkish coal pricing is specified by taking into account the results of Granger causality. The forecast of the coal prices based on error correction model is giving very successful results. It is observed that the coal prices and forecasted coal prices values are almost moving together or very close to each other.展开更多
基金financial support from the Humanities and Social Science Fund of Ministry of Education of China(Project No.18YJAZH138)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71403163)National Social Science Foundation of China(No.20BJL036).
文摘Changes in the energy price system will determine the direction of evolution of the energy industry structure.As a country where coal is the dominant energy source,what is the effect of coal price fluctuations on China’s industry development costs and energy consumption structure?To investigate this problem,this paper utilized an economy–energy–environment computable general equilibrium model.In this study,four aspects were analyzed:Energy supply side,proportion of renewable energy consumption,macroeconomy,and changes in CO_(2) emissions.The results of this study show that an increase of 10%–20%in coal prices contributes to a shift into using renewable energy,which leads to energy saving and emission reduction.Renewable energy and clean energy rose by 0.57%–4.47%in the energy structure,but this has a certain negative impact on the macroeconomy.The gross domestic product(GDP)fell by 0.07%–0.18%.As a result,the decline in coal prices became an obstacle to renewable energy substitution and energy conservation.In addition,we put forward policy suggestions according to the results in energy,economic,and environmental effects.
文摘With the rise of coal price, the proportion of loss-making enterprises shows an upward trend in China＇s coal industry. This paper uses Altman Z-Score model to measure financial risk of 19 listed companies in the coal industry in A-share market from 1995 to 2007. Empirical results show that Year-Based price index of coal price has a negative correlation with the financial risk but has no significance, and coal chain price has a significant negative correlation with the financial risk. Further research indicates that enterprises increase bad investment, and a lot of debts caused by short-term rise in coal prices. The results also show that the financial risk in the coal industry declines with the rise of GDP growth rate and increases with the rise of inflation rate.
文摘It has long been postulated that a relationship exists between commodity price cycles and fatalities in the mining industry.Previous studies have found only weak correlations in this area.This study analyses the fatalities recorded in coal mines over the period 1985-2016 in the State of Queensland as a function of thermal coal price variation.The study finds that the relationship between fatalities and coal prices is not linear.One to two fatalities occur in most years independent of the thermal coal price.When the price of coal falls below AUD 55/tonne(non-inflation adjusted),the likelihood of an incident involving multiple fatalities increases.The probability can be estimated at 2 in 18 events(equivalent to 11%).This paper postulates that in difficult economic times,mining companies react by downsizing direct employees.If not carefully managed,this can result in loss of knowledge around safety systems,and reduced effectiveness of safety supervision.Because of labour cost advantages,some jobs previously undertaken by direct employees will be replaced by contractors.Increased contractor numbers contribute to increased risk of fatalities occurring,as contractors are over-represented in accident categories involving vehicle accidents,tire handling and crushing incidents.Mine inspectorates,mining,and mining contractor companies need to be especially vigilant to enforce health and safety management systems during periods of low coal prices.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72401207 and 42101300)Beijing Municipal Education Commission,China(Grant No.SM202110038001).
文摘This paper investigates China's coal price volatility spreaders(CPVSs)from the supply side to locate the volatility source since coal price volatility may destabilize many downstream products'prices or even bring uncertainties to macroeconomic output.Especially in the carbon neutrality context,China's coal market is being reconstructed and responding to imbalances between supply and demand;identifying the CPVSs helps alleviate rising market instability and prevent energy-induced system risk.To achieve this objective,we explore causalities among 938 weekly coal prices reported by different coal-producing areas of China from 2006.9.4 to 2021.7.12 using the transfer entropy method.Then,coal price volatility influence is quantified to identify the CPVSs by conjointly using complex network theory and a rank aggregation method.The validity test demonstrates that the proposed hybrid method efficiently identifies the CPVSs as it correlates to many price determinants,e.g.,electricity and coal consumption and generation.The empirical results show that causalities among coal prices changed dramatically in 2016,2018,and 2020,affected by coal decapacity and carbon neutrality policies.Before 2018,coal-producing provinces with strong demand for coal and electricity,e.g.,Jiangxi,Chongqing,and Sichuan,were CPVSs;after 2019,those with comparative advantages in coal supply,e.g.,Gansu and Ningxia,were CPVSs.Overall,the coal market is unstable and sensitive to energy policy and external shocks.Policymakers and market participants are recommended to monitor and manage the CPVSs to improve energy security,avoid policy-induced instability and prevent risks caused by coal price fluctuations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.71874133“Special Support Program for High-Level Talents”Youth Top Talent Program of Shaanxi Province,China。
文摘Coal is essential to ensure China’s energy security.The sudden or gradual change of coal price reflects the degree of disequilibrium or expected disequilibrium of coal supply and demand,which will not be conducive to energy security.Therefore,it is important to analyze the change points of coal price and explore the reason of the price fluctuation.This paper analyses the coal price from January2008 to June 2019 as the perspective of the financial market.Firstly,the PPM-DBSCAN model is used to identify the mutation point of coal price fluctuation.Secondly,path analysis is used to extract the core driving factors that affect coal price.Thirdly,the authors construct a time-varying and time-lag effect analysis model for structural changes of coal price based on the TVP-VAR model.The results show that there are 11 mutation points of coal price fluctuation.Financial market factors,coal supply and demand and alternative factors are the reasons of coal price mutation.The authors find that the imbalance of coal supply and demand in traditional view cannot fully explain the fluctuation of coal price.The impact of the financial market and non-thermal power generation have more influence on the coal price.
文摘If assortment priee parity of Clase coking coal and its qtalty price danrcnee is nonreasonable, it deren't gulde in Anprotrig tbe quallry metaliurgical coking coal and may be influence theeconomic benefit of metallurgical enterprises. This paper propose the principles and mathematicmodel for determination aseortment party of clean cokingcoal and its quality difference of ash content in clean coking coal in order to urge wasbenes into producing superior clean coking cleal whichis under condition of consideration both interest waskeries and interest metallurgicai industry. It canbe used as a method in theory to make price strategies under condition of socialism maket economicfor washeries of clean coking coal
文摘In order to make power price truly reflect the cost of electric power and a reasonable profit without making the price unaffordable to the public, the government would have to adopt measures including tax reduction, surcharge reduction, debt relief and coal price reduction.
文摘In this study, a coal pricing model for Turkey is developed employing Granger causality and cointegration analysis by using monthly data between January 2003 and April 2009. Empirical results based on Granger causality tests indicate that foreign coal futures prices and domestic consumer price index for energy sector can be used as the leading indica- tors for domestic coal prices for Turkey. An error correction model for Turkish coal pricing is specified by taking into account the results of Granger causality. The forecast of the coal prices based on error correction model is giving very successful results. It is observed that the coal prices and forecasted coal prices values are almost moving together or very close to each other.
