Timely and accurate forecasting of storm surges can effectively prevent typhoon storm surges from causing large economic losses and casualties in coastal areas.At present,numerical model forecasting consumes too many ...Timely and accurate forecasting of storm surges can effectively prevent typhoon storm surges from causing large economic losses and casualties in coastal areas.At present,numerical model forecasting consumes too many resources and takes too long to compute,while neural network forecasting lacks regional data to train regional forecasting models.In this study,we used the DUAL wind model to build typhoon wind fields,and constructed a typhoon database of 75 processes in the northern South China Sea using the coupled Advanced Circulation-Simulating Waves Nearshore(ADCIRC-SWAN)model.Then,a neural network with a Res-U-Net structure was trained using the typhoon database to forecast the typhoon processes in the validation dataset,and an excellent storm surge forecasting effect was achieved in the Pearl River Estuary region.The storm surge forecasting effect of stronger typhoons was improved by adding a branch structure and transfer learning.展开更多
Coastal inundation results in many human casualties and significant economic losses.In this study,an inundation model with an unstructured mesh was developed using the ADvanced CIRCulation(ADCIRC)and Simulating WAves ...Coastal inundation results in many human casualties and significant economic losses.In this study,an inundation model with an unstructured mesh was developed using the ADvanced CIRCulation(ADCIRC)and Simulating WAves Nearshore(SWAN)models to simulate 43 inundation events from 1998 to 2018.A combined wind-pressure field derived from the assimilation windpressure model was used to drive the coupled ADCIRC-SWAN model.On the basis of the model results,a sensitivity study of the influence of land reclamation on coastal inundation was conducted.The results of the study showed that coastline changes caused by reclamation significantly influence the distribution of coastal inundation,particularly in areas where narrow waterways,bays,and peninsulas are newly formed.Combining the extreme inundation events calculated using the Gumbel and Weibull distributions,the 10-year,50-year,100-year,and 200-year return coastal inundations were obtained for the Pearl River Estuary in China.The risk of coastal inundation was analyzed according to the probability of the inundation depth exceeding 1 m.A hazard grade zoning map was drawn to guide disaster relief and mitigation in the reclamation area.展开更多
The Radial Sand Ridges(RSRs)area in the southern Yellow Sea are subject to tropical and extratropical cyclone activities frequently,in which the special geometry feature and moving stationary tidal system result in co...The Radial Sand Ridges(RSRs)area in the southern Yellow Sea are subject to tropical and extratropical cyclone activities frequently,in which the special geometry feature and moving stationary tidal system result in complex storm-induced hydrodynamic processes,especially the tide-surge interactions.We studied a rare weather event influenced simultaneously by an extratropical cyclone EX1410 and Typhoon Vongfong as an example to investigate the characteristics of storm surges,wave-surge,and tide-surge interaction in the RSRs area,and applied a high-resolution integrally-coupled ADCIRC+SWAN model,in which the meteorological forcing inputs are simulated by the WRF-ARW model.The model is validated by records from 4 tide gauges and 2 wave buoys along the Yellow Sea coast.Results show that the tide-surge interactions are of considerable regional heterogeneousness.The surge curves at Lüsi(in south RSRs)and Jianggang(in middle RSRs)have abrupt falls near the time of low tide,where the peak occurrence time of interaction residuals tend to shift towards the mid-ebb period.Significant increase of bed shear stress in shallow waters was proved the dominant factor to affect the tide-surge interaction in broad tidal flats of the RSRs area.Differently,the interaction pattern in the Xiyang Trough(in north RSRs),showed a unique rising in mid-flood period due to the phase advances of real surge waves in relatively deep waters.Therefore,we suggested to the local flood risk management that the tide-surge interaction tends to alleviate the flooding risk in the RSRs area around the time of high tide,but aggravate the risk on the rising tide in the Xiyang Trough and on the falling tide in large-scale tidal flats of the southem RSRs area.展开更多
Storm surge inundation is a major concern in marine hazard risk assessment during extreme weather conditions.In this study,a high-resolution coupled model(the ADVanced CIRCulation model+the Simulating WAves Nearshore ...Storm surge inundation is a major concern in marine hazard risk assessment during extreme weather conditions.In this study,a high-resolution coupled model(the ADVanced CIRCulation model+the Simulating WAves Nearshore model)was used to investigate the storm surge inundation in the southwestern Hangzhou Bay region during Typhoon Chan-hom in 2015.The simulated hydrodynamic processes(sea surface wave and storm tide)were validated with measured data from wave buoys and tide gauges,indicating that the overall performance of the model was satisfactory.The storm surge inundation in the coastal area was simulated for several idealized control experiments,including different wave effects(wave-enhanced wind stress,wave-enhanced bottom stress,and wave radiation stress).Dike overflowing cases with different dike heights and dike breaking cases with different dike breach lengths were considered in the simulation.The results highlight the necessity of incorporating wave effects in the accurate simulation of storm surge inundation.Dike height significantly influences the magnitude and phase of the maximum inundation area in the dike overflowing cases,and dike breach length is an important factor impacting the magnitude of the maximum inundation area in the dike breaking cases.This study may serve as a useful reference for accurate coastal inundation simulation and risk assessment.展开更多
The current storm wave hazard assessment tends to rely on a statistical method using wave models and fewer historical data which do not consider the effects of tidal and storm surge.In this paper,the wave-current coup...The current storm wave hazard assessment tends to rely on a statistical method using wave models and fewer historical data which do not consider the effects of tidal and storm surge.In this paper,the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN was used to hindcast storm events in the last 30 years.We simulated storm wave on the basis of a large set of historical storms in the North-West Pacific Basin between 1985 and 2015 in Houshui Bay using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN to obtain the storm wave level maps.The results were used for the statistical analysis of the maximum significant wave heights in Houshui Bay and the behavior of wave associated with storm track.Comparisons made between observations and simulated results during typhoon Rammasun(2014)indicate agreement.In addition,results demonstrate that significant wave height in Houshui Bay is dominated by the storm wind velocity and the storm track.Two groups of synthetic storm tracks were designed to further investigate the worst case of typhoon scenarios.The storm wave analysis method developed for the Houshui Bay is significant in assisting government's decision-making in rational planning of deep sea net-cage culture.The method can be applied to other bays in the Hainan Island as well.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42076214)Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant No.ZR2024QD057).
文摘Timely and accurate forecasting of storm surges can effectively prevent typhoon storm surges from causing large economic losses and casualties in coastal areas.At present,numerical model forecasting consumes too many resources and takes too long to compute,while neural network forecasting lacks regional data to train regional forecasting models.In this study,we used the DUAL wind model to build typhoon wind fields,and constructed a typhoon database of 75 processes in the northern South China Sea using the coupled Advanced Circulation-Simulating Waves Nearshore(ADCIRC-SWAN)model.Then,a neural network with a Res-U-Net structure was trained using the typhoon database to forecast the typhoon processes in the validation dataset,and an excellent storm surge forecasting effect was achieved in the Pearl River Estuary region.The storm surge forecasting effect of stronger typhoons was improved by adding a branch structure and transfer learning.
基金Data listed in Section 2 are available from the public platforms.The authors are thankful to those public platforms for providing the data.This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2016YFC1402000).The numerical work is supported by the High-Performance Computing Center,Institution of Oceanology,CAS.
文摘Coastal inundation results in many human casualties and significant economic losses.In this study,an inundation model with an unstructured mesh was developed using the ADvanced CIRCulation(ADCIRC)and Simulating WAves Nearshore(SWAN)models to simulate 43 inundation events from 1998 to 2018.A combined wind-pressure field derived from the assimilation windpressure model was used to drive the coupled ADCIRC-SWAN model.On the basis of the model results,a sensitivity study of the influence of land reclamation on coastal inundation was conducted.The results of the study showed that coastline changes caused by reclamation significantly influence the distribution of coastal inundation,particularly in areas where narrow waterways,bays,and peninsulas are newly formed.Combining the extreme inundation events calculated using the Gumbel and Weibull distributions,the 10-year,50-year,100-year,and 200-year return coastal inundations were obtained for the Pearl River Estuary in China.The risk of coastal inundation was analyzed according to the probability of the inundation depth exceeding 1 m.A hazard grade zoning map was drawn to guide disaster relief and mitigation in the reclamation area.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Nos.2016YFC1402000,2018YFC0407503)the Fundamental Research Fund for Central Public-interest Scientific Institution(No.Y218009)
文摘The Radial Sand Ridges(RSRs)area in the southern Yellow Sea are subject to tropical and extratropical cyclone activities frequently,in which the special geometry feature and moving stationary tidal system result in complex storm-induced hydrodynamic processes,especially the tide-surge interactions.We studied a rare weather event influenced simultaneously by an extratropical cyclone EX1410 and Typhoon Vongfong as an example to investigate the characteristics of storm surges,wave-surge,and tide-surge interaction in the RSRs area,and applied a high-resolution integrally-coupled ADCIRC+SWAN model,in which the meteorological forcing inputs are simulated by the WRF-ARW model.The model is validated by records from 4 tide gauges and 2 wave buoys along the Yellow Sea coast.Results show that the tide-surge interactions are of considerable regional heterogeneousness.The surge curves at Lüsi(in south RSRs)and Jianggang(in middle RSRs)have abrupt falls near the time of low tide,where the peak occurrence time of interaction residuals tend to shift towards the mid-ebb period.Significant increase of bed shear stress in shallow waters was proved the dominant factor to affect the tide-surge interaction in broad tidal flats of the RSRs area.Differently,the interaction pattern in the Xiyang Trough(in north RSRs),showed a unique rising in mid-flood period due to the phase advances of real surge waves in relatively deep waters.Therefore,we suggested to the local flood risk management that the tide-surge interaction tends to alleviate the flooding risk in the RSRs area around the time of high tide,but aggravate the risk on the rising tide in the Xiyang Trough and on the falling tide in large-scale tidal flats of the southem RSRs area.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Nos.2016YFC140 2000,2016YFC1401002,and 2018YFC1407003)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(NosU1706216,41606024,and 41506023)+3 种基金the CAS(Chinese Academy of Sciences)Strategic Priority Project(No.XDA 19060202)the CAS Innovative Foundation(No.CXJJ-16M111)the NSFC Innovative Group(No.41421005)the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(No.U1406402)
文摘Storm surge inundation is a major concern in marine hazard risk assessment during extreme weather conditions.In this study,a high-resolution coupled model(the ADVanced CIRCulation model+the Simulating WAves Nearshore model)was used to investigate the storm surge inundation in the southwestern Hangzhou Bay region during Typhoon Chan-hom in 2015.The simulated hydrodynamic processes(sea surface wave and storm tide)were validated with measured data from wave buoys and tide gauges,indicating that the overall performance of the model was satisfactory.The storm surge inundation in the coastal area was simulated for several idealized control experiments,including different wave effects(wave-enhanced wind stress,wave-enhanced bottom stress,and wave radiation stress).Dike overflowing cases with different dike heights and dike breaking cases with different dike breach lengths were considered in the simulation.The results highlight the necessity of incorporating wave effects in the accurate simulation of storm surge inundation.Dike height significantly influences the magnitude and phase of the maximum inundation area in the dike overflowing cases,and dike breach length is an important factor impacting the magnitude of the maximum inundation area in the dike breaking cases.This study may serve as a useful reference for accurate coastal inundation simulation and risk assessment.
基金supported by the Technology Development Foundation for Research Institutes of Hainan Province(No.TV45987)
文摘The current storm wave hazard assessment tends to rely on a statistical method using wave models and fewer historical data which do not consider the effects of tidal and storm surge.In this paper,the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN was used to hindcast storm events in the last 30 years.We simulated storm wave on the basis of a large set of historical storms in the North-West Pacific Basin between 1985 and 2015 in Houshui Bay using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC+SWAN to obtain the storm wave level maps.The results were used for the statistical analysis of the maximum significant wave heights in Houshui Bay and the behavior of wave associated with storm track.Comparisons made between observations and simulated results during typhoon Rammasun(2014)indicate agreement.In addition,results demonstrate that significant wave height in Houshui Bay is dominated by the storm wind velocity and the storm track.Two groups of synthetic storm tracks were designed to further investigate the worst case of typhoon scenarios.The storm wave analysis method developed for the Houshui Bay is significant in assisting government's decision-making in rational planning of deep sea net-cage culture.The method can be applied to other bays in the Hainan Island as well.
