To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM （1,1） model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new ...To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM （1,1） model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new model and unbiased GM （1, 1 ） model are applied to predict the occurrence areas of rice blast during 2005 -2010. Predicting outcomes show that the prediction accuracy of five-point unbiased sliding optimized GM （1, 1 ） model is higher than the unbiased GM （1,1） model. Finally, combined with the prediction results, the author provides some suggestion for Enshi District in the prevention and control of rice blast in 2010.展开更多
In order to verify the feasibility and stability of a degree-day model on simulating the long time series of glacier mass balance, we apply a degree-day model to simulate the mass balance of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 for t...In order to verify the feasibility and stability of a degree-day model on simulating the long time series of glacier mass balance, we apply a degree-day model to simulate the mass balance of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 for the period 1987/1988-2007/2008 based on temperature and precipitation data from a nearby climate station. The model is calibrated by simulating point measurements of mass bal- ance, mass balance profiles, and mean specific mass balance during 1987/1988-1996/1997. The opti- mized parameters are obtained by using a least square method to make the model fit the measured mass balance through the model calibration. The model validation （1997/1998-2007/2008） indicates that the modeled results are in good agreement with the observations. The static mass balance sensitiv- ity of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is analyzed by computing the mass balance of the glacier for a temperature increase of 1℃, with and without a 5% precipitation increase, and the values for the east branch are -0.80 and -0.87 m w.e. a-1℃-1, respectively, and for the west branch, the values are -0.68 and -0.74 m w.e. a-1℃-1, respectively. Moreover, the analysis of the parameter stability indicates that the parame- ters in the model determined from the current climate condition can be applied in the prediction of the future mass balance changes for the glacier and provide a reference for extending the model to other small glaciers in western China.展开更多
Extensive iron deposition has been observed in the midbrain substantia nigra （SN） of Parkinson＇s disease （PD） patients, but the mechanisms of iron deposition in the SN remain poorly understood. The present study ...Extensive iron deposition has been observed in the midbrain substantia nigra （SN） of Parkinson＇s disease （PD） patients, but the mechanisms of iron deposition in the SN remain poorly understood. The present study investigated the relationship between dopaminergic neuronal damage, iron content changes, and divalent metal transporter 1 （DMT1） in the midbrain SN of PD rats to explore the relationship between time of iron deposition and DMT1 expression. Frozen midbrain SN sections from model rats were stained with Perls＇ iron. Results showed massive loss of tyrosine hydroxylase （TH）-positive cells in the SN and increased DMT1 expression in model group rats. No obvious iron deposition was observed in the SN during early stages after damage, but significant iron deposition was detected at 8 weeks post-injury. Results demonstrate that the loss of TH-positive cells in the SN appeared simultaneously with increased DMT1 expression. Extensive iron deposition occurred at 8 weeks post injury, which could be regarded as an early time window of iron deposition.展开更多
By studying the spectral properties of the underlying operator corresponding to the M/G/1 queueing model with optional second service we obtain that the time-dependent solution of the model strongly converges to its s...By studying the spectral properties of the underlying operator corresponding to the M/G/1 queueing model with optional second service we obtain that the time-dependent solution of the model strongly converges to its steady-state solution. We also show that the time-dependent queueing size at the departure point converges to the corresponding steady-state queueing size at the departure point.展开更多
This paper expresses the efficient outputs of decisionmaking unit（DMU） as the sum of ＂average outputs＂ forecasted by a GM（1,N） model and ＂increased outputs＂ which reflect the difficulty to realize efficient ou...This paper expresses the efficient outputs of decisionmaking unit（DMU） as the sum of ＂average outputs＂ forecasted by a GM（1,N） model and ＂increased outputs＂ which reflect the difficulty to realize efficient outputs.The increased outputs are solved by linear programming using data envelopment analysis efficiency theories,wherein a new sample is introduced whose inputs are equal to the budget in the issue No.n ＋ 1 and outputs are forecasted by the GM（1,N） model.The shortcoming in the existing methods that the forecasted efficient outputs may be less than the possible actual outputs according to developing trends of input-output rate in the periods of pre-n is overcome.The new prediction method provides decision-makers with more decisionmaking information,and the initial conditions are easy to be given.展开更多
基金Supported by Science Research Project of Department of Education of Hubei Province (B20092901)~~
文摘To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM （1,1） model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new model and unbiased GM （1, 1 ） model are applied to predict the occurrence areas of rice blast during 2005 -2010. Predicting outcomes show that the prediction accuracy of five-point unbiased sliding optimized GM （1, 1 ） model is higher than the unbiased GM （1,1） model. Finally, combined with the prediction results, the author provides some suggestion for Enshi District in the prevention and control of rice blast in 2010.
基金supported by the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-EW-311)the National Basic Research Program of China (No. 2007CB411501)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 1141001040, J0930003/J0109)
文摘In order to verify the feasibility and stability of a degree-day model on simulating the long time series of glacier mass balance, we apply a degree-day model to simulate the mass balance of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 for the period 1987/1988-2007/2008 based on temperature and precipitation data from a nearby climate station. The model is calibrated by simulating point measurements of mass bal- ance, mass balance profiles, and mean specific mass balance during 1987/1988-1996/1997. The opti- mized parameters are obtained by using a least square method to make the model fit the measured mass balance through the model calibration. The model validation （1997/1998-2007/2008） indicates that the modeled results are in good agreement with the observations. The static mass balance sensitiv- ity of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 is analyzed by computing the mass balance of the glacier for a temperature increase of 1℃, with and without a 5% precipitation increase, and the values for the east branch are -0.80 and -0.87 m w.e. a-1℃-1, respectively, and for the west branch, the values are -0.68 and -0.74 m w.e. a-1℃-1, respectively. Moreover, the analysis of the parameter stability indicates that the parame- ters in the model determined from the current climate condition can be applied in the prediction of the future mass balance changes for the glacier and provide a reference for extending the model to other small glaciers in western China.
基金the Scientific Research Common Program of Beijing Municipal Commission of Education,No.KM200610025008
文摘Extensive iron deposition has been observed in the midbrain substantia nigra （SN） of Parkinson＇s disease （PD） patients, but the mechanisms of iron deposition in the SN remain poorly understood. The present study investigated the relationship between dopaminergic neuronal damage, iron content changes, and divalent metal transporter 1 （DMT1） in the midbrain SN of PD rats to explore the relationship between time of iron deposition and DMT1 expression. Frozen midbrain SN sections from model rats were stained with Perls＇ iron. Results showed massive loss of tyrosine hydroxylase （TH）-positive cells in the SN and increased DMT1 expression in model group rats. No obvious iron deposition was observed in the SN during early stages after damage, but significant iron deposition was detected at 8 weeks post-injury. Results demonstrate that the loss of TH-positive cells in the SN appeared simultaneously with increased DMT1 expression. Extensive iron deposition occurred at 8 weeks post injury, which could be regarded as an early time window of iron deposition.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11371303)Natural Science Foundation of Xinjiang(2012211A023)Science Foundation of Xinjiang University(XY110101)
文摘By studying the spectral properties of the underlying operator corresponding to the M/G/1 queueing model with optional second service we obtain that the time-dependent solution of the model strongly converges to its steady-state solution. We also show that the time-dependent queueing size at the departure point converges to the corresponding steady-state queueing size at the departure point.
基金supported by the Research Start Funds for Introducing High-level Talents of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
文摘This paper expresses the efficient outputs of decisionmaking unit（DMU） as the sum of ＂average outputs＂ forecasted by a GM（1,N） model and ＂increased outputs＂ which reflect the difficulty to realize efficient outputs.The increased outputs are solved by linear programming using data envelopment analysis efficiency theories,wherein a new sample is introduced whose inputs are equal to the budget in the issue No.n ＋ 1 and outputs are forecasted by the GM（1,N） model.The shortcoming in the existing methods that the forecasted efficient outputs may be less than the possible actual outputs according to developing trends of input-output rate in the periods of pre-n is overcome.The new prediction method provides decision-makers with more decisionmaking information,and the initial conditions are easy to be given.
