The authors examine the effects of external forcing agents such as greenhouse gases （GHGs） and aerosols, as well as solar variability and ozone, on global land monsoon precipitation by using a coupled climate model ...The authors examine the effects of external forcing agents such as greenhouse gases （GHGs） and aerosols, as well as solar variability and ozone, on global land monsoon precipitation by using a coupled climate model HadGEM1, which was developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Research. The results indicate that HadGEM1 performs well in simulating the observed decreasing trend of global land monsoon precipitation over the past 50 years. This trend mainly occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and is significantly different from the trend of natural variability due to ocean-atmosphere-land interactions. The coherence between the simulation and the observations indicates that the specified external forcing agents, including GHGs and aerosols as well as solar variability and ozone, are important factors that have affected the decreasing trend of global land monsoon precipitation in the past 50 years.展开更多
A two-phase trend model is presented to investigate the turning-point signals of evolution trend in long-term series of a climatic element. Based on nonlinear fitting, the revised model brings out more evident improve...A two-phase trend model is presented to investigate the turning-point signals of evolution trend in long-term series of a climatic element. Based on nonlinear fitting, the revised model brings out more evident improvement of the linear model proposed by Solow et al. (1987). Both theoretical deduction and case calculation show that our version can search the turning point and period accurately and objectively. In particular it is fit for computer exploring the turning points in long-range records from stations covering a large area, thus avoiding subjective judgement by a usual drawing method.展开更多
Tremendous achievements of live pig industry in China are closely related to the industrialization of the industry,and development trend of the latter is essential for maintaining sustained and stable development of a...Tremendous achievements of live pig industry in China are closely related to the industrialization of the industry,and development trend of the latter is essential for maintaining sustained and stable development of animal husbandry.The paper,on the basis of defining the evolution of industrialized live pig breeding model,elaborated the industrialized operation models of live pig industry in China since 1978,i.e.household operation,large-scale operation,and industrialized operation.The external environment for the development of live pig industry was analyzed,such as global economic competition,development of experience economy,and stronger green consciousness of consumers.Then development trend of industrialized live pig breeding was analyzed as"expanding international market,consolidating domestic market,integrating resources of live pig industry for the integrated operation,promoting the industrialization model and breeding technology driven by live pig processing,applying animal welfare and the internet of things in live pig breeding industry".展开更多
The Extended Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(extended EWMA)control chart is one of the control charts and can be used to quickly detect a small shift.The performance of control charts can be evaluated with the a...The Extended Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(extended EWMA)control chart is one of the control charts and can be used to quickly detect a small shift.The performance of control charts can be evaluated with the average run length(ARL).Due to the deriving explicit formulas for the ARL on a two-sided extended EWMA control chart for trend autoregressive or trend AR(p)model has not been reported previously.The aim of this study is to derive the explicit formulas for the ARL on a two-sided extended EWMA con-trol chart for the trend AR(p)model as well as the trend AR(1)and trend AR(2)models with exponential white noise.The analytical solution accuracy was obtained with the extended EWMA control chart and was compared to the numer-ical integral equation(NIE)method.The results show that the ARL obtained by the explicit formula and the NIE method is hardly different,but the explicit for-mula can help decrease the computational(CPU)time.Furthermore,this is also expanded to comparative performance with the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(EWMA)control chart.The performance of the extended EWMA control chart is better than the EWMA control chart for all situations,both the trend AR(1)and trend AR(2)models.Finally,the analytical solution of ARL is applied to real-world data in the healthfield,such as COVID-19 data in the United Kingdom and Sweden,to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to create and present a new archaeological predictive model via GIS,incorporating what archaeologists consider the most important criterion absent of similar past models,that of critical think...The aim of this paper is to create and present a new archaeological predictive model via GIS,incorporating what archaeologists consider the most important criterion absent of similar past models,that of critical thinking.The new model suggested in this paper is named habitation Model Trend Calculation(MTC)and is not only integrates the archaeological questions with a critical view,but it can be easily adjusted,according to the conditions or the questions concerning the archaeological community.Furthermore,it uses new topographical and geomorphological indexes such as Topographical Index(TPI),Hillslope and Landform Classification that give a new sense of the topographical and geomorphological characteristics of the examined area;therefore this model is a more powerful tool compared to older models that did not use new topographical and geomorphological indexes.The success of the created model is checked as a case study in the region of Messenia,Greece during the Mycenaean era.The region of Messenia is considered as one of the most important Mycenaean regions of Greece due to the great number and the importance of Mycenaean sites identified.For the present paper,140 habitation sites were divided into four hierarchical categories(centers,large villages,villages,and farms)based on the extent and the plurality of the tholos tombs that exist in the broader region and according to the hierarchical categorization used by the archaeologists who have studied the area.The new predictive model presented in this work can assist in solving a series of criticisms that have been expressed in the previous studies regarding such models.Additionally,in the case of Mycenaean Messenia,the model shows excellent results in relation to the habitats of the time.展开更多
Integrated with GIS and remote sensing(RS) technology,a systematic analysis and its methodology for human-settlements social environment has been introduced.This methodology has been called spatial trend field model(S...Integrated with GIS and remote sensing(RS) technology,a systematic analysis and its methodology for human-settlements social environment has been introduced.This methodology has been called spatial trend field model(STFM).STFM's application history in the field of human-settlements social environment has been discussed at first.Then,some index data models have been created through STFM,which include population density trend field,human activity strength trend field,city-town spatial density trend field,urbanization ratio trend field,road density trend field,GDP spatial density trend field and PER-GDP spatial density trend field.With all above-mentioned indexes as input data,through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Techniques Algorithm(ISODATA),this paper makes a verification study of Chongqing municipality.The result of the case study confirms that STFM methodology is credible and has high efficiency for regional human-settlements study.展开更多
Trend forecasting is an important aspect in fault diagnosis and work state supervision. The principle, where Grey theory is applied in fault forecasting, is that the forecast system is considered as a Grey system; the...Trend forecasting is an important aspect in fault diagnosis and work state supervision. The principle, where Grey theory is applied in fault forecasting, is that the forecast system is considered as a Grey system; the existing known information is used to infer the unknown information's character, state and development trend in a fault pattern, and to make possible forecasting and decisions for future development. It involves the whitenization of a Grey process. But the traditional equal time interval Grey GM (1,1) model requires equal interval data and needs to bring about accumulating addition generation and reversion calculations. Its calculation is very complex. However, the non equal interval Grey GM (1,1) model decreases the condition of the primitive data when establishing a model, but its requirement is still higher and the data were pre processed. The abrasion primitive data of plant could not always satisfy these modeling requirements. Therefore, it establishes a division method suited for general data modeling and estimating parameters of GM (1,1), the standard error coefficient that was applied to judge accuracy height of the model was put forward; further, the function transform to forecast plant abrasion trend and assess GM (1,1) parameter was established. These two models need not pre process the primitive data. It is not only suited for equal interval data modeling, but also for non equal interval data modeling. Its calculation is simple and convenient to use. The oil spectrum analysis acted as an example. The two GM (1,1) models put forward in this paper and the new information model and its comprehensive usage were investigated. The example shows that the two models are simple and practical, and worth expanding and applying in plant fault diagnosis.展开更多
时间序列预测在能源管理、交通流量和气象分析等多个实际场景中具有重要应用价值。然而,时间序列数据中存在的分布漂移(Distribution Shift)与长程依赖(Long-term Dependency)仍限制了传统方法与现有深度学习模型在长期预测中的表现。为...时间序列预测在能源管理、交通流量和气象分析等多个实际场景中具有重要应用价值。然而,时间序列数据中存在的分布漂移(Distribution Shift)与长程依赖(Long-term Dependency)仍限制了传统方法与现有深度学习模型在长期预测中的表现。为此,提出了一种名为D-LINet(Dual-Normalization and Linear Integration Network)的创新模型。该模型结合了Dish-TS(Distribution Shift in Time Series Forecasting)框架的分布归一化能力与线性映射的高效性,并采用双向归一化与双线性层的设计,有效缓解输入与输出空间的分布偏移,增强了对周期性与趋势性特征的捕捉能力。在多个真实数据集上对D-LINet的预测性能进行了全面评估。结果显示,在短期与长期预测中,D-LINet的均方误差和平均绝对误差均显著优于主流模型(如Transformer,Informer,Autoformer和DLinear)。此外,实验还探讨了输入窗口长度及先验知识的引入对预测性能的影响,为后续模型优化提供了重要指导。该研究针对复杂分布漂移问题提出了新的解决思路,并有助于提升时间序列预测的精度与稳健性。展开更多
目的系统分析1990—2021年全球及中美两国归因于空气污染的气管、支气管和肺癌(tracheal,bronchus,and lung cancer,TBL)疾病负担的时空分布特征与流行病学趋势,并基于预测模型评估2022—2031年疾病负担变化规律,为制定针对性的TBL防控...目的系统分析1990—2021年全球及中美两国归因于空气污染的气管、支气管和肺癌(tracheal,bronchus,and lung cancer,TBL)疾病负担的时空分布特征与流行病学趋势,并基于预测模型评估2022—2031年疾病负担变化规律,为制定针对性的TBL防控策略提供科学依据。方法基于全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)2021数据库,分析全球及中美两国1990—2021年归因于空气污染的TBL疾病负担数据,利用R Studio 4.3.2软件分析相应的变化趋势,并通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(Bayesian age-period-cohort,BAPC)预测模型预测2022—2031年全球和中美两国归因于空气污染的TBL疾病负担状况。结果2021年,归因于空气污染的TBL死亡数和伤残调整寿命年数最高的国家是中国(21.14万例和489.47万人年),其次是美国(0.60万例和12.43万人年)。全球和中美两国归因于空气污染的TBL年龄标准化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rate,ASMR)和年龄标准化伤残调整寿命年率(age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate,ASDR)呈下降趋势。1990—2021年中国归因于空气污染的TBL的ASMR和ASDR远高于美国和全球平均水平。从性别上看,1990—2021年全球和中美两国归因于空气污染的TBL男性患者的疾病负担远高于女性患者。BAPC预测模型显示,2022—2031年全球归因于空气污染的TBL的ASMR和ASDR呈上升趋势,中美两国呈下降趋势。结论近30年全球及中美空气污染相关TBL疾病负担持续下降,但中国仍显著高于全球平均水平。男性的疾病负担远超女性,男性及≥50岁群体为高危人群。未来10年全球疾病趋势或逆转上升,而中美有望连续下降,但针对高危人群的精准防控仍是关键挑战。展开更多
辽河口湿地是东亚-澳大利西亚候鸟迁飞通道上重要的水鸟栖息地,已有的研究主要集中在区域水鸟分布、栖息地面积和质量的时空变化上,对于关键种的识别、季节分布及种群长期变化特征鲜有报道。利用2010—2023年辽河口湿地水鸟监测数据,通...辽河口湿地是东亚-澳大利西亚候鸟迁飞通道上重要的水鸟栖息地,已有的研究主要集中在区域水鸟分布、栖息地面积和质量的时空变化上,对于关键种的识别、季节分布及种群长期变化特征鲜有报道。利用2010—2023年辽河口湿地水鸟监测数据,通过国际重要意义湿地标准和监测数据的趋势与指数模型(Trends and Indices for Monitoring data,TRIM),识别了区域分布的关键水鸟物种、季节性分布的重要地点,分析了关键种的种群长期变化特征。结果显示,辽河口湿地共记录到133种水鸟,隶属于9目18科,其中鸻形目水鸟种类最多。在满足国际重要意义湿地标准的区域,共发现54种关键水鸟物种,分布在188个重要地点。不同种类水鸟的栖息地分布和出现频次存在显著的季节性差异,辽河口湿地南小河、三角洲水库、酒壶嘴、二界沟桥、三道沟和滩海站是多数水鸟重要的春秋停歇地,部分鸥类水鸟的夏季繁殖地和部分鹤鹳类、雁类水鸟的越冬地。2010—2023年,满足国际重要意义湿地标准的水鸟栖息地数量呈显著上升趋势。不同类别的水鸟数量总体呈上升趋势,部分物种如白额雁(Anser albifrons)、白鹤(Leucogeranus leucogeranus)、丹顶鹤(Grus japonensis)和灰斑鸻(Pluvialis squatarola)等种群数量呈下降趋势。研究结果显示,在保护区面积不变的前提下,水鸟数量不断增加可能导致未来辽河口湿地资源承载力不足。展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under GrantNos. 40625014, 40821092, and 90711004the National Basic Research Program of China (2006CB403603)the China Meteorological Administration (GYHY200706010,GYHY200706005)
文摘The authors examine the effects of external forcing agents such as greenhouse gases （GHGs） and aerosols, as well as solar variability and ozone, on global land monsoon precipitation by using a coupled climate model HadGEM1, which was developed by the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Research. The results indicate that HadGEM1 performs well in simulating the observed decreasing trend of global land monsoon precipitation over the past 50 years. This trend mainly occurred in the Northern Hemisphere and is significantly different from the trend of natural variability due to ocean-atmosphere-land interactions. The coherence between the simulation and the observations indicates that the specified external forcing agents, including GHGs and aerosols as well as solar variability and ozone, are important factors that have affected the decreasing trend of global land monsoon precipitation in the past 50 years.
基金This wirk is supported jointly National Natural Science Foundation of China and China Meteoroloical Administration 8th-Five-year Major Project Foundation.
文摘A two-phase trend model is presented to investigate the turning-point signals of evolution trend in long-term series of a climatic element. Based on nonlinear fitting, the revised model brings out more evident improvement of the linear model proposed by Solow et al. (1987). Both theoretical deduction and case calculation show that our version can search the turning point and period accurately and objectively. In particular it is fit for computer exploring the turning points in long-range records from stations covering a large area, thus avoiding subjective judgement by a usual drawing method.
基金Supported by Business Management Cultivated Discipline of Rongchang Campus,Southwest University(RCQG207001)
文摘Tremendous achievements of live pig industry in China are closely related to the industrialization of the industry,and development trend of the latter is essential for maintaining sustained and stable development of animal husbandry.The paper,on the basis of defining the evolution of industrialized live pig breeding model,elaborated the industrialized operation models of live pig industry in China since 1978,i.e.household operation,large-scale operation,and industrialized operation.The external environment for the development of live pig industry was analyzed,such as global economic competition,development of experience economy,and stronger green consciousness of consumers.Then development trend of industrialized live pig breeding was analyzed as"expanding international market,consolidating domestic market,integrating resources of live pig industry for the integrated operation,promoting the industrialization model and breeding technology driven by live pig processing,applying animal welfare and the internet of things in live pig breeding industry".
基金Thailand Science ResearchInnovation Fund,and King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok Contract No.KMUTNB-FF-65-45.
文摘The Extended Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(extended EWMA)control chart is one of the control charts and can be used to quickly detect a small shift.The performance of control charts can be evaluated with the average run length(ARL).Due to the deriving explicit formulas for the ARL on a two-sided extended EWMA control chart for trend autoregressive or trend AR(p)model has not been reported previously.The aim of this study is to derive the explicit formulas for the ARL on a two-sided extended EWMA con-trol chart for the trend AR(p)model as well as the trend AR(1)and trend AR(2)models with exponential white noise.The analytical solution accuracy was obtained with the extended EWMA control chart and was compared to the numer-ical integral equation(NIE)method.The results show that the ARL obtained by the explicit formula and the NIE method is hardly different,but the explicit for-mula can help decrease the computational(CPU)time.Furthermore,this is also expanded to comparative performance with the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average(EWMA)control chart.The performance of the extended EWMA control chart is better than the EWMA control chart for all situations,both the trend AR(1)and trend AR(2)models.Finally,the analytical solution of ARL is applied to real-world data in the healthfield,such as COVID-19 data in the United Kingdom and Sweden,to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method.
文摘The aim of this paper is to create and present a new archaeological predictive model via GIS,incorporating what archaeologists consider the most important criterion absent of similar past models,that of critical thinking.The new model suggested in this paper is named habitation Model Trend Calculation(MTC)and is not only integrates the archaeological questions with a critical view,but it can be easily adjusted,according to the conditions or the questions concerning the archaeological community.Furthermore,it uses new topographical and geomorphological indexes such as Topographical Index(TPI),Hillslope and Landform Classification that give a new sense of the topographical and geomorphological characteristics of the examined area;therefore this model is a more powerful tool compared to older models that did not use new topographical and geomorphological indexes.The success of the created model is checked as a case study in the region of Messenia,Greece during the Mycenaean era.The region of Messenia is considered as one of the most important Mycenaean regions of Greece due to the great number and the importance of Mycenaean sites identified.For the present paper,140 habitation sites were divided into four hierarchical categories(centers,large villages,villages,and farms)based on the extent and the plurality of the tholos tombs that exist in the broader region and according to the hierarchical categorization used by the archaeologists who have studied the area.The new predictive model presented in this work can assist in solving a series of criticisms that have been expressed in the previous studies regarding such models.Additionally,in the case of Mycenaean Messenia,the model shows excellent results in relation to the habitats of the time.
基金supported by National 11th Five-Year Technology Support Program (Grant No 2008BAH31B06)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No50738007)
文摘Integrated with GIS and remote sensing(RS) technology,a systematic analysis and its methodology for human-settlements social environment has been introduced.This methodology has been called spatial trend field model(STFM).STFM's application history in the field of human-settlements social environment has been discussed at first.Then,some index data models have been created through STFM,which include population density trend field,human activity strength trend field,city-town spatial density trend field,urbanization ratio trend field,road density trend field,GDP spatial density trend field and PER-GDP spatial density trend field.With all above-mentioned indexes as input data,through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Techniques Algorithm(ISODATA),this paper makes a verification study of Chongqing municipality.The result of the case study confirms that STFM methodology is credible and has high efficiency for regional human-settlements study.
文摘Trend forecasting is an important aspect in fault diagnosis and work state supervision. The principle, where Grey theory is applied in fault forecasting, is that the forecast system is considered as a Grey system; the existing known information is used to infer the unknown information's character, state and development trend in a fault pattern, and to make possible forecasting and decisions for future development. It involves the whitenization of a Grey process. But the traditional equal time interval Grey GM (1,1) model requires equal interval data and needs to bring about accumulating addition generation and reversion calculations. Its calculation is very complex. However, the non equal interval Grey GM (1,1) model decreases the condition of the primitive data when establishing a model, but its requirement is still higher and the data were pre processed. The abrasion primitive data of plant could not always satisfy these modeling requirements. Therefore, it establishes a division method suited for general data modeling and estimating parameters of GM (1,1), the standard error coefficient that was applied to judge accuracy height of the model was put forward; further, the function transform to forecast plant abrasion trend and assess GM (1,1) parameter was established. These two models need not pre process the primitive data. It is not only suited for equal interval data modeling, but also for non equal interval data modeling. Its calculation is simple and convenient to use. The oil spectrum analysis acted as an example. The two GM (1,1) models put forward in this paper and the new information model and its comprehensive usage were investigated. The example shows that the two models are simple and practical, and worth expanding and applying in plant fault diagnosis.
文摘时间序列预测在能源管理、交通流量和气象分析等多个实际场景中具有重要应用价值。然而,时间序列数据中存在的分布漂移(Distribution Shift)与长程依赖(Long-term Dependency)仍限制了传统方法与现有深度学习模型在长期预测中的表现。为此,提出了一种名为D-LINet(Dual-Normalization and Linear Integration Network)的创新模型。该模型结合了Dish-TS(Distribution Shift in Time Series Forecasting)框架的分布归一化能力与线性映射的高效性,并采用双向归一化与双线性层的设计,有效缓解输入与输出空间的分布偏移,增强了对周期性与趋势性特征的捕捉能力。在多个真实数据集上对D-LINet的预测性能进行了全面评估。结果显示,在短期与长期预测中,D-LINet的均方误差和平均绝对误差均显著优于主流模型(如Transformer,Informer,Autoformer和DLinear)。此外,实验还探讨了输入窗口长度及先验知识的引入对预测性能的影响,为后续模型优化提供了重要指导。该研究针对复杂分布漂移问题提出了新的解决思路,并有助于提升时间序列预测的精度与稳健性。
文摘目的系统分析1990—2021年全球及中美两国归因于空气污染的气管、支气管和肺癌(tracheal,bronchus,and lung cancer,TBL)疾病负担的时空分布特征与流行病学趋势,并基于预测模型评估2022—2031年疾病负担变化规律,为制定针对性的TBL防控策略提供科学依据。方法基于全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)2021数据库,分析全球及中美两国1990—2021年归因于空气污染的TBL疾病负担数据,利用R Studio 4.3.2软件分析相应的变化趋势,并通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(Bayesian age-period-cohort,BAPC)预测模型预测2022—2031年全球和中美两国归因于空气污染的TBL疾病负担状况。结果2021年,归因于空气污染的TBL死亡数和伤残调整寿命年数最高的国家是中国(21.14万例和489.47万人年),其次是美国(0.60万例和12.43万人年)。全球和中美两国归因于空气污染的TBL年龄标准化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rate,ASMR)和年龄标准化伤残调整寿命年率(age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate,ASDR)呈下降趋势。1990—2021年中国归因于空气污染的TBL的ASMR和ASDR远高于美国和全球平均水平。从性别上看,1990—2021年全球和中美两国归因于空气污染的TBL男性患者的疾病负担远高于女性患者。BAPC预测模型显示,2022—2031年全球归因于空气污染的TBL的ASMR和ASDR呈上升趋势,中美两国呈下降趋势。结论近30年全球及中美空气污染相关TBL疾病负担持续下降,但中国仍显著高于全球平均水平。男性的疾病负担远超女性,男性及≥50岁群体为高危人群。未来10年全球疾病趋势或逆转上升,而中美有望连续下降,但针对高危人群的精准防控仍是关键挑战。
文摘辽河口湿地是东亚-澳大利西亚候鸟迁飞通道上重要的水鸟栖息地,已有的研究主要集中在区域水鸟分布、栖息地面积和质量的时空变化上,对于关键种的识别、季节分布及种群长期变化特征鲜有报道。利用2010—2023年辽河口湿地水鸟监测数据,通过国际重要意义湿地标准和监测数据的趋势与指数模型(Trends and Indices for Monitoring data,TRIM),识别了区域分布的关键水鸟物种、季节性分布的重要地点,分析了关键种的种群长期变化特征。结果显示,辽河口湿地共记录到133种水鸟,隶属于9目18科,其中鸻形目水鸟种类最多。在满足国际重要意义湿地标准的区域,共发现54种关键水鸟物种,分布在188个重要地点。不同种类水鸟的栖息地分布和出现频次存在显著的季节性差异,辽河口湿地南小河、三角洲水库、酒壶嘴、二界沟桥、三道沟和滩海站是多数水鸟重要的春秋停歇地,部分鸥类水鸟的夏季繁殖地和部分鹤鹳类、雁类水鸟的越冬地。2010—2023年,满足国际重要意义湿地标准的水鸟栖息地数量呈显著上升趋势。不同类别的水鸟数量总体呈上升趋势,部分物种如白额雁(Anser albifrons)、白鹤(Leucogeranus leucogeranus)、丹顶鹤(Grus japonensis)和灰斑鸻(Pluvialis squatarola)等种群数量呈下降趋势。研究结果显示,在保护区面积不变的前提下,水鸟数量不断增加可能导致未来辽河口湿地资源承载力不足。
