We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United State...We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States.In this study,we use the lat-est vintage of Divisia aggregates,maintained within CFS.We use monthly data,from January 1967 to December 2020,which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.We then make comparisons between narrow and broad Divisia money measures and find evidence of a nonlinear but reserved possible chaotic explanation of their origin.The application of RPs to broad Divisia monetary aggregates encompasses an additional drift structure around the global financial crisis in 2008.Applying the moving window RQA to the growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates,we identify periods of changes in data-generating processes and associate such changes to monetary policy regimes and financial innovations that occurred during those times.展开更多
The choice of liquidity indicators is a key issue in global liquidity management. Money supply statistics such as M2 are no longer able to reflect the true scale of global liquidity due to the effect of financial glob...The choice of liquidity indicators is a key issue in global liquidity management. Money supply statistics such as M2 are no longer able to reflect the true scale of global liquidity due to the effect of financial globalization. External bank liabilities, as an important indicator to measure global liquidity conditions, are omitted by many countries in their broad money statistics. Given that financial institutions＇ external liabilities serve as a major source of fiscal shock as well as an important cause for the accumulation of monetary risk, it is imperative to include these external liabilities into the global liquidity indicator system.展开更多
This study constructs and examines the dynamics of theoretical and atheoretical measures of global liquidity,using monthly data on the components of broad money over the period 2001 M12-2017 M12 for 39 high income cou...This study constructs and examines the dynamics of theoretical and atheoretical measures of global liquidity,using monthly data on the components of broad money over the period 2001 M12-2017 M12 for 39 high income countries.We group the countries into five regional blocks as categorized by the World Bank:East Asia and the Pacific,Europe and Central Asia,Latin America and the Caribbean,Middle East and North Africa,and North America.The atheoretical measures exploited by this study comprise of the simple-sum,GDP-weighted growth rates and PCA based aggregation methods;whereas theoretical measures include the currency equivalent and Divisia index techniques of monetary aggregation.We employ a graphical approach to investigate the trends and dynamics of the aggregates overtime,and a cross-correlation between cyclical components of global real economic activity and the lag of cyclical components of the measures of global liquidity to gauge the strength of their associations.The findings of this study reveal that theoretical measures outperform atheoretical ones in effective delineation of financial and liquidity conditions,and policy stance.Their cyclical components are also strongly associated with those of global real business activity.The currency equivalent measure,besides being a leading indicator of the shift in policy stance,has a sturdy association with global real business activity.Moreover,the theoretical measures,as noted by some empirical studies,contain some information content that the atheoretical lack.展开更多
Since the start of reform and opening in the late 1970s, China's monetary operation has undergone dramatic changes. The J-curve of Chinese monetary aggregate (total quantity growth) over the period between 1978 an...Since the start of reform and opening in the late 1970s, China's monetary operation has undergone dramatic changes. The J-curve of Chinese monetary aggregate (total quantity growth) over the period between 1978 and 2005 illustrates the changes in total quantity growth, while the changes in monetary structure are shown by an X-curve, and are attributed to the increased ratio of money in circulation to savings (money serving as a store of value) from 6:4 to 4:6. Therefore, the key factor in maintaining supply-and -demand equilibrium in monetary supply has shifted from the supply side to the demand side. The monetary aggregate has influenced the decrease in commodity prices. However, composite prices including assets, reflect the equilibrium of monetary supply and demand. In the face of the changes in Chinese monetary operation, attention should be given to inflation pressure and highly concentrated financial risks in the banking system, and the regulation of monetary demand should be emphasized. The regulation of monetary aggregate and monetary structure are both of vital importance.展开更多
The great expansionary policies undertaken by the main central banks of the world since the outbreak of the world financial and economic crisis in 2008 did not produce a satisfying recovery of the real economy especia...The great expansionary policies undertaken by the main central banks of the world since the outbreak of the world financial and economic crisis in 2008 did not produce a satisfying recovery of the real economy especially in Europe. In order to identify the causes of this failure, it became necessary to deepen the analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and to investigate if there are some obstacles hampering the functioning of this mechanism. The scope of the present papers to analyze some short comings of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy is conducted by the European Central Bank （ECB） in the euro area. After a close examination of the relationship between the monetary base and the supply of money, transmission through the credit channel and through the interestrate channel will be taken into consideration. The analysis shows that loans to nonfinancial corporations were not affected by the huge amount of liquidity created by the ECB, while a very slow growth is shown by loans to private households during the whole period.展开更多
Economic cycles are not economic evils but rather healing agents for returning to equilibrium,just as inflation and deflation are not economic misfortunes but the sign of bad governance and a bitter medicine for retur...Economic cycles are not economic evils but rather healing agents for returning to equilibrium,just as inflation and deflation are not economic misfortunes but the sign of bad governance and a bitter medicine for returning to calm monetary.Unfortunately,signs of poor governance are mistaken for unfortunate events,but are instead tools offered to restore economic systems.Politics seeks consensus and does not accept the bitter cure of recession.Monetary policy is therefore called into question even if monetary anomalies also depend on errors in the management of the economy;the result is the gradual increase in interest rates.Is the idea that we can achieve the goal of complete neutrality with nature acceptable in a global economic framework pervaded by inflation and denunciation?Can we similarly argue that economic problems can coexist once the goal of neutrality has been achieved?The answer is negative.We must correct these anomalies and dysfunctions of the economy,which cannot coexist in the new context of complete and indefinite equilibrium of tomorrow.And not even the idea that conflicts can be resolved with war seems to find a place in the renewed scenario of neutrality.In this regard we can remember that,when we have reached the economic optimum of complete neutrality,or at least we are close to it,the most socially and economically advanced territories and continents will benefit from an acceleration of productivity and development.Scarcity itself will give way to the new,long-awaited reality.A condition that approaches the state of abundance and which will produce surpluses to be allocated to countries and territories that are struggling towards the condition of neutrality.The acceleration of lagging continents and the recovery of altered economic systems are therefore preconditions that can allow us to access the state of global neutrality.As we get closer to the great objective,it is to be believed that the pretense of regulating conflicts through war will also disappear.With the new reality of abundance,the economic reason for war disappears,while the aspiration of peoples-inscribed in their DNA-for solidarity and peaceful aggregation towards substantial unity becomes clear.展开更多
文摘We construct recurrence plots(RPs)and conduct recurrence quantification analysis(RQA)to investigate the dynamic properties of the new Center for Financial Stability(CFS)Divisia monetary aggregates for the United States.In this study,we use the lat-est vintage of Divisia aggregates,maintained within CFS.We use monthly data,from January 1967 to December 2020,which is a sample period that includes the extreme economic events of the 2007–2009 global financial crisis.We then make comparisons between narrow and broad Divisia money measures and find evidence of a nonlinear but reserved possible chaotic explanation of their origin.The application of RPs to broad Divisia monetary aggregates encompasses an additional drift structure around the global financial crisis in 2008.Applying the moving window RQA to the growth rates of narrow and broad Divisia monetary aggregates,we identify periods of changes in data-generating processes and associate such changes to monetary policy regimes and financial innovations that occurred during those times.
文摘The choice of liquidity indicators is a key issue in global liquidity management. Money supply statistics such as M2 are no longer able to reflect the true scale of global liquidity due to the effect of financial globalization. External bank liabilities, as an important indicator to measure global liquidity conditions, are omitted by many countries in their broad money statistics. Given that financial institutions＇ external liabilities serve as a major source of fiscal shock as well as an important cause for the accumulation of monetary risk, it is imperative to include these external liabilities into the global liquidity indicator system.
文摘This study constructs and examines the dynamics of theoretical and atheoretical measures of global liquidity,using monthly data on the components of broad money over the period 2001 M12-2017 M12 for 39 high income countries.We group the countries into five regional blocks as categorized by the World Bank:East Asia and the Pacific,Europe and Central Asia,Latin America and the Caribbean,Middle East and North Africa,and North America.The atheoretical measures exploited by this study comprise of the simple-sum,GDP-weighted growth rates and PCA based aggregation methods;whereas theoretical measures include the currency equivalent and Divisia index techniques of monetary aggregation.We employ a graphical approach to investigate the trends and dynamics of the aggregates overtime,and a cross-correlation between cyclical components of global real economic activity and the lag of cyclical components of the measures of global liquidity to gauge the strength of their associations.The findings of this study reveal that theoretical measures outperform atheoretical ones in effective delineation of financial and liquidity conditions,and policy stance.Their cyclical components are also strongly associated with those of global real business activity.The currency equivalent measure,besides being a leading indicator of the shift in policy stance,has a sturdy association with global real business activity.Moreover,the theoretical measures,as noted by some empirical studies,contain some information content that the atheoretical lack.
文摘Since the start of reform and opening in the late 1970s, China's monetary operation has undergone dramatic changes. The J-curve of Chinese monetary aggregate (total quantity growth) over the period between 1978 and 2005 illustrates the changes in total quantity growth, while the changes in monetary structure are shown by an X-curve, and are attributed to the increased ratio of money in circulation to savings (money serving as a store of value) from 6:4 to 4:6. Therefore, the key factor in maintaining supply-and -demand equilibrium in monetary supply has shifted from the supply side to the demand side. The monetary aggregate has influenced the decrease in commodity prices. However, composite prices including assets, reflect the equilibrium of monetary supply and demand. In the face of the changes in Chinese monetary operation, attention should be given to inflation pressure and highly concentrated financial risks in the banking system, and the regulation of monetary demand should be emphasized. The regulation of monetary aggregate and monetary structure are both of vital importance.
文摘The great expansionary policies undertaken by the main central banks of the world since the outbreak of the world financial and economic crisis in 2008 did not produce a satisfying recovery of the real economy especially in Europe. In order to identify the causes of this failure, it became necessary to deepen the analysis of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and to investigate if there are some obstacles hampering the functioning of this mechanism. The scope of the present papers to analyze some short comings of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy is conducted by the European Central Bank （ECB） in the euro area. After a close examination of the relationship between the monetary base and the supply of money, transmission through the credit channel and through the interestrate channel will be taken into consideration. The analysis shows that loans to nonfinancial corporations were not affected by the huge amount of liquidity created by the ECB, while a very slow growth is shown by loans to private households during the whole period.
文摘Economic cycles are not economic evils but rather healing agents for returning to equilibrium,just as inflation and deflation are not economic misfortunes but the sign of bad governance and a bitter medicine for returning to calm monetary.Unfortunately,signs of poor governance are mistaken for unfortunate events,but are instead tools offered to restore economic systems.Politics seeks consensus and does not accept the bitter cure of recession.Monetary policy is therefore called into question even if monetary anomalies also depend on errors in the management of the economy;the result is the gradual increase in interest rates.Is the idea that we can achieve the goal of complete neutrality with nature acceptable in a global economic framework pervaded by inflation and denunciation?Can we similarly argue that economic problems can coexist once the goal of neutrality has been achieved?The answer is negative.We must correct these anomalies and dysfunctions of the economy,which cannot coexist in the new context of complete and indefinite equilibrium of tomorrow.And not even the idea that conflicts can be resolved with war seems to find a place in the renewed scenario of neutrality.In this regard we can remember that,when we have reached the economic optimum of complete neutrality,or at least we are close to it,the most socially and economically advanced territories and continents will benefit from an acceleration of productivity and development.Scarcity itself will give way to the new,long-awaited reality.A condition that approaches the state of abundance and which will produce surpluses to be allocated to countries and territories that are struggling towards the condition of neutrality.The acceleration of lagging continents and the recovery of altered economic systems are therefore preconditions that can allow us to access the state of global neutrality.As we get closer to the great objective,it is to be believed that the pretense of regulating conflicts through war will also disappear.With the new reality of abundance,the economic reason for war disappears,while the aspiration of peoples-inscribed in their DNA-for solidarity and peaceful aggregation towards substantial unity becomes clear.
