摘要
学术界围绕最优货币中介目标的选择,在利率、简单加总货币量、迪维西亚货币量之间争论不休。本文基于DAG-SVAR模型,分别对美国、欧元区、英国的银行间隔夜拆借利率R、简单加总货币量M2、迪维西亚货币量D2对物价P、产出Y影响的相对重要性进行实证比较。结果发现,在美国,M2对Y的影响最大,R对P的影响最大;在欧元区,D2对Y的影响最大,M2对P的影响最大;在英国,M2对Y和P的影响都最大。总的来说,若货币最终目标是经济增长,则美国、英国的最优中介目标是简单加总货币量,欧元区的最优中介目标是迪维西亚货币量;若货币最终目标是物价稳定,则美国的最优中介目标是利率,欧元区、英国的最优中介目标是简单加总货币量。由此可见,对于不同的经济体或者不同的货币最终目标,最优中介目标的选择可能有所不同。本文的研究结论在一定程度上是对"利率普遍优于货币量,迪维西亚货币量普遍优于简单加总货币量"学术共识的反向补充。
The academia have an ongoing debate about the choice of the optimal monetary intermediate target among interest rates, simple-sum monetary aggregates and Divisia monetary aggregates. This paper compares empirically the relative importance of the overnight interbank interest rate R, simple-sum mone- tary aggregate M2, Divisia monetary aggregate D2 to price P, output Y in the US, the euro zone and the UK respectively based on a DAG-SVAR model. The results show that M2 has the largest impact on Y and R has the largest impact on P in the US. In the euro zone, D2 has the largest impact on Y and M2 has the largest impact on P. In the UK, M2 has the largest impact on both Y and P. In summary, if the monetary ultimate target is economic growth, the optimal intermediate targets of the US and the UK are simple-sum monetary aggregates, the euro zone＇s optimal intermediate target is the Divisia monetary aggregate. If the monetary ultimate target is price stability, the optimal intermediate target of the US is the interest rate, the optimal intermediate target of the euro zone and the UK are simple-sum monetary aggregates. Thus, for different economies or monetary ultimate targets, the choice of the optimal intermediate target may be different. The conclusion of this paper is to some extent to the contradictory supplement of the academic consensus interest rates generally perform better than the monetary aggregates and Divisia monetary aggregates are generally perform better than simple-sum monetary aggregates.
出处
《经济理论与经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期71-82,共12页
Economic Theory and Business Management
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(12&ZD046)的资助
