An efficient computational method is suggested for the first-excursion reliability assessment of nonstationary process. In the proposed method, the nonlinear performance function is Linearized at the Hasofer-Lind poin...An efficient computational method is suggested for the first-excursion reliability assessment of nonstationary process. In the proposed method, the nonlinear performance function is Linearized at the Hasofer-Lind point obtained by an iterative algorithm. The problem of the nonstationary processes is solved by the discrete-time method, in which the precision can be controlled by choosing the steps of discretization. The derived formulae can be conveniently degraded to calculate both the first-excursion reliability with linear performance function of stationary processes and the time-independent reliability. The suggested method is useful for the analysis of components and systems with nonstationary responses in structural design where some uncertainties are represented by a vector of nonstationary processes. Examples are given to demonstrate the fast convergency and effectiveness of the presented method.展开更多
While parametric Software Reliability Growth Models(SRGMs)serve as a cornerstone in software reliability assessment,their reliance on known fault-detection time distributions often presents a significant limitation in...While parametric Software Reliability Growth Models(SRGMs)serve as a cornerstone in software reliability assessment,their reliance on known fault-detection time distributions often presents a significant limitation in practical software testing.In this study,the authors develop a novel shaperestricted spline estimator for quantifying software reliability.Compared with parametric SRGMs,the proposed estimator not only shares a key characteristic with parametric SRGMs,but also obviates the need for specifying fault-detection time distributions.More importantly,it effectively utilizes the critical shape information of the mean value function(MVF)of fault-detection process,a detail seldom considered in prior work.Moreover,the authors investigate the predictive performance of the proposed methods by employing the so-called one-step look-ahead prediction method.Furthermore,the authors show that under certain conditions,the shape-restricted spline estimator will attain the point-wise convergence rate O_P(n~(-3/7)).In numerical experiment,the authors show that spline estimators under restriction demonstrate competitive performance compared to parametric and certain non-parametric models.展开更多
This study examines the reliability and validity of AI-generated scoring for continuation writing tasks.By comparing GPT-4 with eight experienced human raters across 21 student responses,it evaluates AI’s consistency...This study examines the reliability and validity of AI-generated scoring for continuation writing tasks.By comparing GPT-4 with eight experienced human raters across 21 student responses,it evaluates AI’s consistency,severity,and alignment with human scoring criteria.Results show that AI exhibits high self-consistency and adapts effectively to different scoring roles(e.g.,teacher vs.highstakes rater).However,AI scores were more lenient than human raters and demonstrated divergent evaluation focuses—prioritizing narrative coherence and emotional depth,while teachers emphasized linguistic accuracy and richness of detail.The findings suggest AI’s potential as a supplementary assessment tool,offering rapid,holistic feedback,but highlight the need for further calibration to align with educational standards.Implications include exploring hybrid evaluation models that leverage the strengths of both AI and human raters to achieve more equitable,efficient,and pedagogically meaningful writing assessments.展开更多
A stochastic predator-prey system with Markov switching is explored.We have developed a new chasing technique to efficiently solve the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov and backward Kolmogorov equations.Dynamic balance and rel...A stochastic predator-prey system with Markov switching is explored.We have developed a new chasing technique to efficiently solve the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov and backward Kolmogorov equations.Dynamic balance and reliability of the switching system are evaluated via stationary probability density function and first-passage failure theory,taking into account factors such as switching frequencies,noise intensities,and initial conditions.Results reveal that Markov switching leads to stochastic P-bifurcation,enhancing dynamic balance and reducing white-noise-induced oscillations.But frequent switching can heighten initial value dependence,harming reliability.Further,the influence of the subsystem on the switching system is not proportional to its action probabilities.Monte Carlo simulations validate the findings,offering an in-depth exploration of these dynamics.展开更多
In this work,we demonstrated the InSnO(ITO)TFTs passivated with SiO_(2)via the PECVD process compatible with large-area production for the first time.The passivated ITO TFTs with various channel thicknesses(t_(ch)=4,5...In this work,we demonstrated the InSnO(ITO)TFTs passivated with SiO_(2)via the PECVD process compatible with large-area production for the first time.The passivated ITO TFTs with various channel thicknesses(t_(ch)=4,5,6 nm)exhibit excellent electrical performance and superior uniformity.The reliability properties of ITO TFTs were evaluated in detail under positive bias stress(PBS)conditions before and after passivation.Compared to the devices without passivation,the passivated devices have only 50%threshold voltage degradation(ΔV_(th))and 50%newly generated traps due to excellent isolation of the ambient atmosphere.The negligible performance degradation of ITO TFTs with passivation during negative bias stress(NBS)and negative bias temperature stress(NBTS)verifies the outstanding immunity to the water vapor of the SiO_(2)passivation layer.Overall,the ITO TFT with the t_(ch)of 6 nm and with SiO_(2)passivation exhibits the best performance in terms of electrical properties,uniformity,and reliability,which is promising in large-area production.展开更多
This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for ...This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for identifying critical failure modes and their root causes,while BN introduces flexibility in probabilistic reasoning,enabling dynamic updates based on new evidence.This dual methodology overcomes the limitations of static FTA models,offering a comprehensive framework for system reliability analysis.Critical failures,including External Leakage(ELU),Failure to Start(FTS),and Overheating(OHE),were identified as key risks.By incorporating redundancy into high-risk components such as pumps and batteries,the likelihood of these failures was significantly reduced.For instance,redundant pumps reduced the probability of ELU by 31.88%,while additional batteries decreased the occurrence of FTS by 36.45%.The results underscore the practical benefits of combining FTA and BN for enhancing system reliability,particularly in maritime applications where operational safety and efficiency are critical.This research provides valuable insights for maintenance planning and highlights the importance of redundancy in critical systems,especially as the industry transitions toward more autonomous vessels.展开更多
To study the durability of concrete in harsh environments in Northwest China,concrete was prepared with various durability-improving materials such as concrete anti-erosion inhibitor(SBT-TIA),acrylate polymer(AP),supe...To study the durability of concrete in harsh environments in Northwest China,concrete was prepared with various durability-improving materials such as concrete anti-erosion inhibitor(SBT-TIA),acrylate polymer(AP),super absorbent resin(SAP).The erosion mode and internal deterioration mechanism under salt freeze-thaw cycle and dry-wet cycle were explored.The results show that the addition of enhancing materials can effectively improve the resistance of concrete to salt freezing and sulfate erosion:the relevant indexes of concrete added with X-AP and T-AP are improved after salt freeze-thaw cycles;concrete added with SBTTIA shows optimal sulfate corrosion resistance;and concrete added with AP displays the best resistance to salt freezing.Microanalysis shows that the increase in the number of cycles decreases the generation of internal hydration products and defects in concrete mixed with enhancing materials and improves the related indexes.Based on the Wiener model analysis,the reliability of concrete with different lithologies and enhancing materials is improved,which may provide a reference for the application of manufactured sand concrete and enhancing materials in Northwest China,especially for the study of the improvement effects and mechanism of enhancing materials on the performance of concrete.展开更多
Reservoir-induced landslides in China's Three Gorges Reservoir area are prone to tensile cracks due to the influenceof their own weight and fluctuationsin water levels.The presence of cracks indicates that the ten...Reservoir-induced landslides in China's Three Gorges Reservoir area are prone to tensile cracks due to the influenceof their own weight and fluctuationsin water levels.The presence of cracks indicates that the tensile stress in the area has exceeded the tensile strength of the soil,leading to local instability.To explore the impact of tensile failure behavior on the stability and failure modes of reservoir landslides,the Huangtupo Riverside Slump#1 is taken as a case study.By considering local tensile failure,potential tensile cracks are incorporated into the analysis via the limit equilibrium method and reliability theory.The reliability of landslides under different tensile failure scenarios is quantified.Strain-softening characteristics of the soil are combined to further analyze the failure transmission path of the landslide.Finally,these potential failure modes were validated through physical model tests.The results show that cracks developing at rear positions reduce the stability of the slope and increase the probability of instability.During the destruction process,retrogressive failures with multiple sliding surfaces are likely to occur.However,tensile failure at the forefront reduces the likelihood of an individual slide mass descending.Progressive failure results in both regular and skip transmission patterns.Additionally,cracks and water level changes can also lead to shifts in the positions of the most dangerous blocks.Therefore,in practical landslide analysis and prevention,it is necessary to consider local tensile damage and identify potential tensile crack locations in advance to optimize prevention measures and accurately evaluate landslide risk.展开更多
In reliability analyses,the absence of a priori information on the most probable point of failure(MPP)may result in overlooking critical points,thereby leading to biased assessment outcomes.Moreover,second-order relia...In reliability analyses,the absence of a priori information on the most probable point of failure(MPP)may result in overlooking critical points,thereby leading to biased assessment outcomes.Moreover,second-order reliability methods exhibit limited accuracy in highly nonlinear scenarios.To overcome these challenges,a novel reliability analysis strategy based on a multimodal differential evolution algorithm and a hypersphere integration method is proposed.Initially,the penalty function method is employed to reformulate the MPP search problem as a conditionally constrained optimization task.Subsequently,a differential evolution algorithm incorporating a population delineation strategy is utilized to identify all MPPs.Finally,a paraboloid equation is constructed based on the curvature of the limit-state function at the MPPs,and the failure probability of the structure is calculated by using the hypersphere integration method.The localization effectiveness of the MPPs is compared through multiple numerical cases and two engineering examples,with accuracy comparisons of failure probabilities against the first-order reliability method(FORM)and the secondorder reliability method(SORM).The results indicate that the method effectively identifies existing MPPs and achieves higher solution precision.展开更多
The rapid development of wind energy in the power sectors raises the question about the reliability of wind turbines for power system planning and operation.The electrical subsystem of wind turbines(ESWT),which is one...The rapid development of wind energy in the power sectors raises the question about the reliability of wind turbines for power system planning and operation.The electrical subsystem of wind turbines(ESWT),which is one of the most vulnerable parts of the wind turbine,is investigated in this paper.The hygrothermal aging of power electronic devices(PEDs)is modeled for the first time in the comprehensive reliability evaluation of ESWT,by using a novel stationary“circuit-like”approach.First,the failure mechanism of the hygrothermal aging,which includes the solder layer fatigue damage and packaging material performance degradation,is explained.Then,a moisture diffusion resistance concept and a hygrothermal equivalent circuit are proposed to quantitate the hygrothermal aging behavior.A conditional probability function is developed to calculate the time-varying failure rate of PEDs.At last,the stochastic renewal process is simulated to evaluate the reliability for ESWT through the sequential Monte Carlo simulation,in which failure,repair,and replacement states of devices are all included.The effectiveness of our proposed reliability evaluation method is verified on an ESWT in a 2 MW wind turbine use time series data collected from a wind farm in China.展开更多
The performance degradation of micro light-emitting diodes(micro-LEDs)is closely associated with the deterioration of sidewall passivation layers under prolonged electrical bias.We investigate reliability improvements...The performance degradation of micro light-emitting diodes(micro-LEDs)is closely associated with the deterioration of sidewall passivation layers under prolonged electrical bias.We investigate reliability improvements in 20μm×20μm InGaN/GaN blue micro-LEDs by suppressing the formation of an unstable interfacial layer during sidewall passivation.SiO_(2)is deposited on the etched mesa sidewalls using either Sputtering or plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition(PECVD).Comparative analysis reveals that PECVD-passivated devices experience more severe performance degradation,primarily due to the increased leakage current.After 100 h of accelerated aging,external quantum efficiency decreases by 44%in PECVD-passivated samples,whereas Sputter-passivated devices exhibit only an11%reduction.This discrepancy is attributed to the formation of a thicker and chemically unstable gallium oxynitride(Ga-O_(X)-N_(1-X))interfacial layer at the SiO_(2)∕GaN-based interface,which facilitates the generation of sidewall defects.Suppressing the formation of this interlayer enhances the crystallinity and structural stability of the passivation layer,thereby mitigating the activation of point defects.Notably,Sputter deposition is more effective in minimizing the formation of Ga-O-N interlayer.These findings emphasize the critical role of achieving low-defect-density sidewall passivation to improve the reliability of micro-LEDs for next-generation high-resolution display applications.展开更多
It is well recognized that Structural Health Monitoring(SHM)reliability evaluation is a key aspect that needs to be urgently addressed to promote the wide application of SHM methods.However,the existing studies typica...It is well recognized that Structural Health Monitoring(SHM)reliability evaluation is a key aspect that needs to be urgently addressed to promote the wide application of SHM methods.However,the existing studies typically transfer the Non-Destructive Testing/Evaluation(NDT/E)reliability metrics to SHM without a systematic analysis of where these metrics originated.Seldom attentions are paid to the evaluation conditions which are very important to apply these metrics.Aimed at this issue,a new condition control-based Dual-Reliability Evaluation(Dual-RE)method for SHM is proposed.This new method is proposed based on a systematic analysis of the whole framework of reliability evaluation from instrument to NDT,and emphasis is paid to the evaluation condition control.Based on these analyses,considering the special online application scenario of SHM,the proposed Dual-RE method contains two key components:Integrated Sensor-based SHM-RE(IS-SHM-RE)and Critical Service Condition-based SHM-RE(CSC-SHM-RE).ISSHM-RE evaluates the reliability of integrated SHM sensor and system themselves under approximate repeatability conditions,while CSC-SHM-RE assesses SHM reliability under the dominant uncertainties during service,namely intermediate conditions.To demonstrate the Dual-RE,crack monitoring by using the Guided Wave-based-SHM(GW-SHM)on aircraft lug structures is taken as a case study.Both the crack detection and sizing performance are evaluated from accuracy and uncertainty.展开更多
Dear Editor,This letter presents a new approach to developing interpretable and reliable soft sensors for Industry 5.0 applications.Although sophisticated machine learning methods have made remarkable strides in soft-...Dear Editor,This letter presents a new approach to developing interpretable and reliable soft sensors for Industry 5.0 applications.Although sophisticated machine learning methods have made remarkable strides in soft-sensor predictive accuracy,ensuring interpretability and reliable performance across varying industrial operating conditions remains a challenge[1]–[4].This is precisely what Industry 5.0,proposed by the European Commission in 2021,advocates[5],[6].It integrates various cutting-edge technologies,such as human-machine interaction,digital twins,cybersecurity and artificial intelligence,to facilitate the development of better soft sensors.展开更多
The reliability of information systems(IS)is a key factor in the sustainable operation of modern digital services.However,existing assessment methods remain fragmented and are often limited to individual indicators or...The reliability of information systems(IS)is a key factor in the sustainable operation of modern digital services.However,existing assessment methods remain fragmented and are often limited to individual indicators or expert judgments.This paper proposes a hybridmethodology for a comprehensive assessment of IS reliability based on the integration of the international standard ISO/IEC 25010:2023,multicriteria analysismethods(ARAS,CoCoSo,and TOPSIS),and theXGBoostmachine learning algorithmfor missing data imputation.Thestructure of the ISO/IEC 25010 standard is used to formalize reliability criteria and subcriteria,while theAHP method allows for the calculation of their weighting coefficients based on expert assessments.The XGBoost algorithm ensures the correct filling of gaps in the source data,increasing the completeness and reliability of the subsequent assessment.The resulting weighted indicators are aggregated using threeMCDMmethods,after which an integral reliability indicator is formed as a percentage.The methodology was tested on six real-world information systems with different architectures.The results demonstrated high consistency between the ARAS,CoCoSo,and TOPSISmethods,as well as the stability of the final rating when the criterion weights vary by±10%.The proposed approach provides a reproducible,transparent,and objective assessment of information system reliability and can be used to identify system bottlenecks,make modernization decisions,and manage the quality of digital infrastructure.展开更多
The probabilistic stability evolution analysis of reservoir bank slopes is a crucial aspect of risk assessment,with core challenges including the consideration of deformation mechanisms and accurate determination of m...The probabilistic stability evolution analysis of reservoir bank slopes is a crucial aspect of risk assessment,with core challenges including the consideration of deformation mechanisms and accurate determination of mechanical parameters.In this study,a novel time-varying reliability analysis framework based on sequential Bayesian updating of mechanical parameters is proposed.The inverse parameters account for damage time-dependent behavior,incorporating water effect and a strain-driven softening-hardening process that depends on sliding states.The likelihood function is enhanced to simultaneously consider observation error,surrogate model prediction error,and model structural error,with the introduction of physical penalty.Exploration of the high-dimensional parameter space is achieved via the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo(HMC)method and the physics knowledge-based time-dependent deformation surrogate model.The time-varying reliability analysis of the slope is performed using the multi-grid method.Taking a reservoir bank slope as a case study,the sequential updating of 12 mechanical parameters is conducted based on deformation time series from 16 monitoring points,thereby validating the proposed framework.The results indicate that the proposed framework effectively captures the posterior distribution of mechanical parameters,with the case slope remaining in a critically stable state after overall sliding,showing a high failure probability.Introducing model structural error can reduce parameter compensation,and a reasonable sequential updating step size can improve inversion accuracy.展开更多
Reliability-based design optimization （RBDO） is intrinsically a double-loop procedure since it involves an overall optimization and an iterative reliability assessment at each search point. Due to the double-loop pr...Reliability-based design optimization （RBDO） is intrinsically a double-loop procedure since it involves an overall optimization and an iterative reliability assessment at each search point. Due to the double-loop procedure, the computational expense of RBDO is normally very high. Current RBDO research focuses on problems with explicitly expressed performance functions and readily available gradients. This paper addresses a more challenging type of RBDO problem in which the performance functions are computation intensive. These computation intensive functions are often considered as a ＂black-box＂ and their gradients are not available or not reliable. On the basis of the reliable design space （RDS） concept proposed earlier by the authors, this paper proposes a Reliable Space Pursuing （RSP） approach, in which RDS is first identified and then gradually refined while optimization is performed. It fundamentally avoids the nested optimization and probabilistic assessment loop. Three well known RBDO problems from the literature are used for testing and demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed RSP method.展开更多
AIM: To assess the inter-observer agreement and reliability as well as intra-observer repeatability for lacrimal scintigraphy(LS) reports with and without considering the irrigation test results.METHODS: A prospective...AIM: To assess the inter-observer agreement and reliability as well as intra-observer repeatability for lacrimal scintigraphy(LS) reports with and without considering the irrigation test results.METHODS: A prospective, observational, cross sectional study. Two masked clinicians(lacrimal surgeon and nuclear medicine specialist) independently reported 100 LS images(50 patients of >6 years of age with unilateral anophthalmic socket) in a university hospital. The lacrimal surgeon performed a diagnostic irrigation test and repeated the report of the same LS images 2 y after the first report(intra-observer agreement). A weighted Kappa analysis was performed to determine inter-observer agreement and reliability as well as intra-observer repeatability for the type(normal, partial and complete obstruction) and location(presac, preduct, and intraduct) of the obstruction. Subgroup analysis was also performed with consideration of irrigation test results. RESULTS: A significantly moderate agreement was found between lacrimal surgeon and nuclear medicine specialist for both the type(Kappa=0.55) and location(Kappa=0.48) of obstruction. Agreement values were higher for the type(Kappa=0.61 vs 0.41) and location(Kappa=0.56 vs 0.31) of obstruction in cases with normal than abnormal irrigation test. Strong and significant intraobserver(lacrimal surgeon) repeatability was found for both the type(Kappa=0.66) and location(Kappa=0.69) of obstruction. LS showed no to slight reliability based on irrigation test.CONCLUSION: A moderate agreement is found between lacrimal surgeon and nuclear medicine specialist regarding the interpretation of LS suggesting the importance ofconsensus groups among nuclear medicine specialists and lacrimal surgeons to create a common language for interpretation of LS. Intra-observer repeatability is strong for the lacrimal surgeon.展开更多
Preventive maintenance(PM)enhances the reliability of an ultra-high-voltage DC(UHVDC)line.However,it introduces new states and complicates the task of determining the reliability parameters of the component with PM.Th...Preventive maintenance(PM)enhances the reliability of an ultra-high-voltage DC(UHVDC)line.However,it introduces new states and complicates the task of determining the reliability parameters of the component with PM.The hierarchical connection(HC)of the inverter improves the flexibility of UHVDC,but the state spaces of the inverter and UHVDC-HC are determined by capacity distribution between the high terminal(HT)and low terminal(LT),which has not been studied yet.In this paper,the reliability of UHVDC-HC with the PM is studied.First,with the impact of PM described by a nonlinear coefficient,the state space of the components with PM is aggregated.It is the same size as without PM.The only difference is the transition rate.Second,considering power distribution between the HT/LT and its dependence on the state of the rectifier,new capacity levels of HT/LT,e.g.,75%/2,50%/3,are defined.Third,with capacity levels of the HT/LT differentiated,2 existing reliability indices are extended,and 2 are newly defined.Finally,a sensitivity model of the reliability of the UHVDC-HC to its parameters and the PM period is proposed.展开更多
The dynamic avalanche effect is a critical factor influencing the performance and reliability of the field-stop insulated gate bipolar transistors(FS-IGBT).Unclamped inductive switching(UIS)is the primary method for t...The dynamic avalanche effect is a critical factor influencing the performance and reliability of the field-stop insulated gate bipolar transistors(FS-IGBT).Unclamped inductive switching(UIS)is the primary method for testing the dynamic avalanche capability of FS-IGBTs.Numerous studies have demonstrated that factors such as device structure,avalanche-generating current filaments,and electrical parameters influence the dynamic avalanche effect of the FS-IGBT.However,few studies have focused on enhancing the avalanche reliability of the FS-IGBT by adjusting circuit parameters during operation.In this paper,the dynamic avalanche effect of the FS-IGBT under UIS conditions is comprehensively investigated through a series of comparative experiments with varying circuit parameters,including bus voltage V_(DC),gate voltage V_(G),gate resistance R_(g),load inductance L,and temperature TC.Furthermore,a method to enhance the dynamic avalanche reliability of the FS-IGBT under UIS by optimizing circuit parameters is proposed.In practical applications,reducing gate voltage,increasing load inductance,and lowering temperature can effectively improve the dynamic avalanche capability of the FS-IGBT.展开更多
Purpose–This paper focuses on studying the reliability allocation for the railway system,aiming to improve the overall reliability of the railway system and ensure safety operation.Design/methodology/approach–In vie...Purpose–This paper focuses on studying the reliability allocation for the railway system,aiming to improve the overall reliability of the railway system and ensure safety operation.Design/methodology/approach–In view of the complex structure of the railway system,involving many subsystems,this paper analyzes the close dynamic coupling effect between railway subsystems.Based on this,taking the railway system failure as the top event,a fault tree is constructed in this paper.Then,a reliability allocation method based on the fault tree is employed to allocate the reliability index.Finally,a numerical experiment is implemented to show the performance of the reliability allocation method.Findings–The results showed that each subsystem needs to improve its reliability to meet the specified railway system reliability requirements,and the traction power supply system is the most important subsystem,which is the most efficient in improving the reliability of the railway system.Originality/value–For the first time,starting from a holistic perspective of the system,reliability allocation is carried out based on the importance of each railway subsystem.展开更多
基金The project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘An efficient computational method is suggested for the first-excursion reliability assessment of nonstationary process. In the proposed method, the nonlinear performance function is Linearized at the Hasofer-Lind point obtained by an iterative algorithm. The problem of the nonstationary processes is solved by the discrete-time method, in which the precision can be controlled by choosing the steps of discretization. The derived formulae can be conveniently degraded to calculate both the first-excursion reliability with linear performance function of stationary processes and the time-independent reliability. The suggested method is useful for the analysis of components and systems with nonstationary responses in structural design where some uncertainties are represented by a vector of nonstationary processes. Examples are given to demonstrate the fast convergency and effectiveness of the presented method.
文摘While parametric Software Reliability Growth Models(SRGMs)serve as a cornerstone in software reliability assessment,their reliance on known fault-detection time distributions often presents a significant limitation in practical software testing.In this study,the authors develop a novel shaperestricted spline estimator for quantifying software reliability.Compared with parametric SRGMs,the proposed estimator not only shares a key characteristic with parametric SRGMs,but also obviates the need for specifying fault-detection time distributions.More importantly,it effectively utilizes the critical shape information of the mean value function(MVF)of fault-detection process,a detail seldom considered in prior work.Moreover,the authors investigate the predictive performance of the proposed methods by employing the so-called one-step look-ahead prediction method.Furthermore,the authors show that under certain conditions,the shape-restricted spline estimator will attain the point-wise convergence rate O_P(n~(-3/7)).In numerical experiment,the authors show that spline estimators under restriction demonstrate competitive performance compared to parametric and certain non-parametric models.
文摘This study examines the reliability and validity of AI-generated scoring for continuation writing tasks.By comparing GPT-4 with eight experienced human raters across 21 student responses,it evaluates AI’s consistency,severity,and alignment with human scoring criteria.Results show that AI exhibits high self-consistency and adapts effectively to different scoring roles(e.g.,teacher vs.highstakes rater).However,AI scores were more lenient than human raters and demonstrated divergent evaluation focuses—prioritizing narrative coherence and emotional depth,while teachers emphasized linguistic accuracy and richness of detail.The findings suggest AI’s potential as a supplementary assessment tool,offering rapid,holistic feedback,but highlight the need for further calibration to align with educational standards.Implications include exploring hybrid evaluation models that leverage the strengths of both AI and human raters to achieve more equitable,efficient,and pedagogically meaningful writing assessments.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12472033)。
文摘A stochastic predator-prey system with Markov switching is explored.We have developed a new chasing technique to efficiently solve the Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov and backward Kolmogorov equations.Dynamic balance and reliability of the switching system are evaluated via stationary probability density function and first-passage failure theory,taking into account factors such as switching frequencies,noise intensities,and initial conditions.Results reveal that Markov switching leads to stochastic P-bifurcation,enhancing dynamic balance and reducing white-noise-induced oscillations.But frequent switching can heighten initial value dependence,harming reliability.Further,the influence of the subsystem on the switching system is not proportional to its action probabilities.Monte Carlo simulations validate the findings,offering an in-depth exploration of these dynamics.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62404110,62274033)Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(BK20221453)+1 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central UniversitiesNatural Science Research Start-up Foundation of Recruiting Talents of Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications(NY223159)。
文摘In this work,we demonstrated the InSnO(ITO)TFTs passivated with SiO_(2)via the PECVD process compatible with large-area production for the first time.The passivated ITO TFTs with various channel thicknesses(t_(ch)=4,5,6 nm)exhibit excellent electrical performance and superior uniformity.The reliability properties of ITO TFTs were evaluated in detail under positive bias stress(PBS)conditions before and after passivation.Compared to the devices without passivation,the passivated devices have only 50%threshold voltage degradation(ΔV_(th))and 50%newly generated traps due to excellent isolation of the ambient atmosphere.The negligible performance degradation of ITO TFTs with passivation during negative bias stress(NBS)and negative bias temperature stress(NBTS)verifies the outstanding immunity to the water vapor of the SiO_(2)passivation layer.Overall,the ITO TFT with the t_(ch)of 6 nm and with SiO_(2)passivation exhibits the best performance in terms of electrical properties,uniformity,and reliability,which is promising in large-area production.
基金supported by Istanbul Technical University(Project No.45698)supported through the“Young Researchers’Career Development Project-training of doctoral students”of the Croatian Science Foundation.
文摘This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for identifying critical failure modes and their root causes,while BN introduces flexibility in probabilistic reasoning,enabling dynamic updates based on new evidence.This dual methodology overcomes the limitations of static FTA models,offering a comprehensive framework for system reliability analysis.Critical failures,including External Leakage(ELU),Failure to Start(FTS),and Overheating(OHE),were identified as key risks.By incorporating redundancy into high-risk components such as pumps and batteries,the likelihood of these failures was significantly reduced.For instance,redundant pumps reduced the probability of ELU by 31.88%,while additional batteries decreased the occurrence of FTS by 36.45%.The results underscore the practical benefits of combining FTA and BN for enhancing system reliability,particularly in maritime applications where operational safety and efficiency are critical.This research provides valuable insights for maintenance planning and highlights the importance of redundancy in critical systems,especially as the industry transitions toward more autonomous vessels.
基金Funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52178216)the Research on the Durability and Application of High-performance Concrete for Highway Engineering in the Cold and Arid Salt Areas of Northwest China(No.2022-24)the Construction Project of the Scientific Research Platform of Provincial Enterprises Supported by the Capital Operating Budget of Gansu Province(No.2023GZ018)。
文摘To study the durability of concrete in harsh environments in Northwest China,concrete was prepared with various durability-improving materials such as concrete anti-erosion inhibitor(SBT-TIA),acrylate polymer(AP),super absorbent resin(SAP).The erosion mode and internal deterioration mechanism under salt freeze-thaw cycle and dry-wet cycle were explored.The results show that the addition of enhancing materials can effectively improve the resistance of concrete to salt freezing and sulfate erosion:the relevant indexes of concrete added with X-AP and T-AP are improved after salt freeze-thaw cycles;concrete added with SBTTIA shows optimal sulfate corrosion resistance;and concrete added with AP displays the best resistance to salt freezing.Microanalysis shows that the increase in the number of cycles decreases the generation of internal hydration products and defects in concrete mixed with enhancing materials and improves the related indexes.Based on the Wiener model analysis,the reliability of concrete with different lithologies and enhancing materials is improved,which may provide a reference for the application of manufactured sand concrete and enhancing materials in Northwest China,especially for the study of the improvement effects and mechanism of enhancing materials on the performance of concrete.
基金supported by the Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42090055)the National Key ScientificInstruments and Equipment Development Projects of China(Grant No.41827808)the National Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42207216).
文摘Reservoir-induced landslides in China's Three Gorges Reservoir area are prone to tensile cracks due to the influenceof their own weight and fluctuationsin water levels.The presence of cracks indicates that the tensile stress in the area has exceeded the tensile strength of the soil,leading to local instability.To explore the impact of tensile failure behavior on the stability and failure modes of reservoir landslides,the Huangtupo Riverside Slump#1 is taken as a case study.By considering local tensile failure,potential tensile cracks are incorporated into the analysis via the limit equilibrium method and reliability theory.The reliability of landslides under different tensile failure scenarios is quantified.Strain-softening characteristics of the soil are combined to further analyze the failure transmission path of the landslide.Finally,these potential failure modes were validated through physical model tests.The results show that cracks developing at rear positions reduce the stability of the slope and increase the probability of instability.During the destruction process,retrogressive failures with multiple sliding surfaces are likely to occur.However,tensile failure at the forefront reduces the likelihood of an individual slide mass descending.Progressive failure results in both regular and skip transmission patterns.Additionally,cracks and water level changes can also lead to shifts in the positions of the most dangerous blocks.Therefore,in practical landslide analysis and prevention,it is necessary to consider local tensile damage and identify potential tensile crack locations in advance to optimize prevention measures and accurately evaluate landslide risk.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52375236)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(No.23D110316)。
文摘In reliability analyses,the absence of a priori information on the most probable point of failure(MPP)may result in overlooking critical points,thereby leading to biased assessment outcomes.Moreover,second-order reliability methods exhibit limited accuracy in highly nonlinear scenarios.To overcome these challenges,a novel reliability analysis strategy based on a multimodal differential evolution algorithm and a hypersphere integration method is proposed.Initially,the penalty function method is employed to reformulate the MPP search problem as a conditionally constrained optimization task.Subsequently,a differential evolution algorithm incorporating a population delineation strategy is utilized to identify all MPPs.Finally,a paraboloid equation is constructed based on the curvature of the limit-state function at the MPPs,and the failure probability of the structure is calculated by using the hypersphere integration method.The localization effectiveness of the MPPs is compared through multiple numerical cases and two engineering examples,with accuracy comparisons of failure probabilities against the first-order reliability method(FORM)and the secondorder reliability method(SORM).The results indicate that the method effectively identifies existing MPPs and achieves higher solution precision.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 52022016China Postdoctoral Science Foundation under grant 2021M693711Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under grant 2021CDJQY-037.
文摘The rapid development of wind energy in the power sectors raises the question about the reliability of wind turbines for power system planning and operation.The electrical subsystem of wind turbines(ESWT),which is one of the most vulnerable parts of the wind turbine,is investigated in this paper.The hygrothermal aging of power electronic devices(PEDs)is modeled for the first time in the comprehensive reliability evaluation of ESWT,by using a novel stationary“circuit-like”approach.First,the failure mechanism of the hygrothermal aging,which includes the solder layer fatigue damage and packaging material performance degradation,is explained.Then,a moisture diffusion resistance concept and a hygrothermal equivalent circuit are proposed to quantitate the hygrothermal aging behavior.A conditional probability function is developed to calculate the time-varying failure rate of PEDs.At last,the stochastic renewal process is simulated to evaluate the reliability for ESWT through the sequential Monte Carlo simulation,in which failure,repair,and replacement states of devices are all included.The effectiveness of our proposed reliability evaluation method is verified on an ESWT in a 2 MW wind turbine use time series data collected from a wind farm in China.
基金supported by the Samsung Research Funding&Incubation Center of Samsung Electronics under Project No.SRFC-MA2402-05supported by the KENTECH Center for Shared Research Facilities。
文摘The performance degradation of micro light-emitting diodes(micro-LEDs)is closely associated with the deterioration of sidewall passivation layers under prolonged electrical bias.We investigate reliability improvements in 20μm×20μm InGaN/GaN blue micro-LEDs by suppressing the formation of an unstable interfacial layer during sidewall passivation.SiO_(2)is deposited on the etched mesa sidewalls using either Sputtering or plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition(PECVD).Comparative analysis reveals that PECVD-passivated devices experience more severe performance degradation,primarily due to the increased leakage current.After 100 h of accelerated aging,external quantum efficiency decreases by 44%in PECVD-passivated samples,whereas Sputter-passivated devices exhibit only an11%reduction.This discrepancy is attributed to the formation of a thicker and chemically unstable gallium oxynitride(Ga-O_(X)-N_(1-X))interfacial layer at the SiO_(2)∕GaN-based interface,which facilitates the generation of sidewall defects.Suppressing the formation of this interlayer enhances the crystallinity and structural stability of the passivation layer,thereby mitigating the activation of point defects.Notably,Sputter deposition is more effective in minimizing the formation of Ga-O-N interlayer.These findings emphasize the critical role of achieving low-defect-density sidewall passivation to improve the reliability of micro-LEDs for next-generation high-resolution display applications.
基金the support from National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52275153)the Frontier Technologies R&D Program of Jiangsu,China(No.BF2024068)+1 种基金The Fund of Prospective Layout of Scientific Research for Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,ChinaResearch Fund of State Key Laboratory of Mechanics and Control for Aerospace Structures(Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics),China(Nos.MCAS-I-0425K01,MCAS-I-0423G01)。
文摘It is well recognized that Structural Health Monitoring(SHM)reliability evaluation is a key aspect that needs to be urgently addressed to promote the wide application of SHM methods.However,the existing studies typically transfer the Non-Destructive Testing/Evaluation(NDT/E)reliability metrics to SHM without a systematic analysis of where these metrics originated.Seldom attentions are paid to the evaluation conditions which are very important to apply these metrics.Aimed at this issue,a new condition control-based Dual-Reliability Evaluation(Dual-RE)method for SHM is proposed.This new method is proposed based on a systematic analysis of the whole framework of reliability evaluation from instrument to NDT,and emphasis is paid to the evaluation condition control.Based on these analyses,considering the special online application scenario of SHM,the proposed Dual-RE method contains two key components:Integrated Sensor-based SHM-RE(IS-SHM-RE)and Critical Service Condition-based SHM-RE(CSC-SHM-RE).ISSHM-RE evaluates the reliability of integrated SHM sensor and system themselves under approximate repeatability conditions,while CSC-SHM-RE assesses SHM reliability under the dominant uncertainties during service,namely intermediate conditions.To demonstrate the Dual-RE,crack monitoring by using the Guided Wave-based-SHM(GW-SHM)on aircraft lug structures is taken as a case study.Both the crack detection and sizing performance are evaluated from accuracy and uncertainty.
文摘Dear Editor,This letter presents a new approach to developing interpretable and reliable soft sensors for Industry 5.0 applications.Although sophisticated machine learning methods have made remarkable strides in soft-sensor predictive accuracy,ensuring interpretability and reliable performance across varying industrial operating conditions remains a challenge[1]–[4].This is precisely what Industry 5.0,proposed by the European Commission in 2021,advocates[5],[6].It integrates various cutting-edge technologies,such as human-machine interaction,digital twins,cybersecurity and artificial intelligence,to facilitate the development of better soft sensors.
基金the financial support of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan,grant No.AP25793823.
文摘The reliability of information systems(IS)is a key factor in the sustainable operation of modern digital services.However,existing assessment methods remain fragmented and are often limited to individual indicators or expert judgments.This paper proposes a hybridmethodology for a comprehensive assessment of IS reliability based on the integration of the international standard ISO/IEC 25010:2023,multicriteria analysismethods(ARAS,CoCoSo,and TOPSIS),and theXGBoostmachine learning algorithmfor missing data imputation.Thestructure of the ISO/IEC 25010 standard is used to formalize reliability criteria and subcriteria,while theAHP method allows for the calculation of their weighting coefficients based on expert assessments.The XGBoost algorithm ensures the correct filling of gaps in the source data,increasing the completeness and reliability of the subsequent assessment.The resulting weighted indicators are aggregated using threeMCDMmethods,after which an integral reliability indicator is formed as a percentage.The methodology was tested on six real-world information systems with different architectures.The results demonstrated high consistency between the ARAS,CoCoSo,and TOPSISmethods,as well as the stability of the final rating when the criterion weights vary by±10%.The proposed approach provides a reproducible,transparent,and objective assessment of information system reliability and can be used to identify system bottlenecks,make modernization decisions,and manage the quality of digital infrastructure.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41961134032).
文摘The probabilistic stability evolution analysis of reservoir bank slopes is a crucial aspect of risk assessment,with core challenges including the consideration of deformation mechanisms and accurate determination of mechanical parameters.In this study,a novel time-varying reliability analysis framework based on sequential Bayesian updating of mechanical parameters is proposed.The inverse parameters account for damage time-dependent behavior,incorporating water effect and a strain-driven softening-hardening process that depends on sliding states.The likelihood function is enhanced to simultaneously consider observation error,surrogate model prediction error,and model structural error,with the introduction of physical penalty.Exploration of the high-dimensional parameter space is achieved via the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo(HMC)method and the physics knowledge-based time-dependent deformation surrogate model.The time-varying reliability analysis of the slope is performed using the multi-grid method.Taking a reservoir bank slope as a case study,the sequential updating of 12 mechanical parameters is conducted based on deformation time series from 16 monitoring points,thereby validating the proposed framework.The results indicate that the proposed framework effectively captures the posterior distribution of mechanical parameters,with the case slope remaining in a critically stable state after overall sliding,showing a high failure probability.Introducing model structural error can reduce parameter compensation,and a reasonable sequential updating step size can improve inversion accuracy.
基金supported by Natural Science and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) of Canada
文摘Reliability-based design optimization （RBDO） is intrinsically a double-loop procedure since it involves an overall optimization and an iterative reliability assessment at each search point. Due to the double-loop procedure, the computational expense of RBDO is normally very high. Current RBDO research focuses on problems with explicitly expressed performance functions and readily available gradients. This paper addresses a more challenging type of RBDO problem in which the performance functions are computation intensive. These computation intensive functions are often considered as a ＂black-box＂ and their gradients are not available or not reliable. On the basis of the reliable design space （RDS） concept proposed earlier by the authors, this paper proposes a Reliable Space Pursuing （RSP） approach, in which RDS is first identified and then gradually refined while optimization is performed. It fundamentally avoids the nested optimization and probabilistic assessment loop. Three well known RBDO problems from the literature are used for testing and demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed RSP method.
文摘AIM: To assess the inter-observer agreement and reliability as well as intra-observer repeatability for lacrimal scintigraphy(LS) reports with and without considering the irrigation test results.METHODS: A prospective, observational, cross sectional study. Two masked clinicians(lacrimal surgeon and nuclear medicine specialist) independently reported 100 LS images(50 patients of >6 years of age with unilateral anophthalmic socket) in a university hospital. The lacrimal surgeon performed a diagnostic irrigation test and repeated the report of the same LS images 2 y after the first report(intra-observer agreement). A weighted Kappa analysis was performed to determine inter-observer agreement and reliability as well as intra-observer repeatability for the type(normal, partial and complete obstruction) and location(presac, preduct, and intraduct) of the obstruction. Subgroup analysis was also performed with consideration of irrigation test results. RESULTS: A significantly moderate agreement was found between lacrimal surgeon and nuclear medicine specialist for both the type(Kappa=0.55) and location(Kappa=0.48) of obstruction. Agreement values were higher for the type(Kappa=0.61 vs 0.41) and location(Kappa=0.56 vs 0.31) of obstruction in cases with normal than abnormal irrigation test. Strong and significant intraobserver(lacrimal surgeon) repeatability was found for both the type(Kappa=0.66) and location(Kappa=0.69) of obstruction. LS showed no to slight reliability based on irrigation test.CONCLUSION: A moderate agreement is found between lacrimal surgeon and nuclear medicine specialist regarding the interpretation of LS suggesting the importance ofconsensus groups among nuclear medicine specialists and lacrimal surgeons to create a common language for interpretation of LS. Intra-observer repeatability is strong for the lacrimal surgeon.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51877061).
文摘Preventive maintenance(PM)enhances the reliability of an ultra-high-voltage DC(UHVDC)line.However,it introduces new states and complicates the task of determining the reliability parameters of the component with PM.The hierarchical connection(HC)of the inverter improves the flexibility of UHVDC,but the state spaces of the inverter and UHVDC-HC are determined by capacity distribution between the high terminal(HT)and low terminal(LT),which has not been studied yet.In this paper,the reliability of UHVDC-HC with the PM is studied.First,with the impact of PM described by a nonlinear coefficient,the state space of the components with PM is aggregated.It is the same size as without PM.The only difference is the transition rate.Second,considering power distribution between the HT/LT and its dependence on the state of the rectifier,new capacity levels of HT/LT,e.g.,75%/2,50%/3,are defined.Third,with capacity levels of the HT/LT differentiated,2 existing reliability indices are extended,and 2 are newly defined.Finally,a sensitivity model of the reliability of the UHVDC-HC to its parameters and the PM period is proposed.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant 62071073in part by the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities under Grant 2023CDJXY-041in part by the Foundation from Guangxi Key Laboratory of Optoelectronic Information Processing under Grant GD20201.
文摘The dynamic avalanche effect is a critical factor influencing the performance and reliability of the field-stop insulated gate bipolar transistors(FS-IGBT).Unclamped inductive switching(UIS)is the primary method for testing the dynamic avalanche capability of FS-IGBTs.Numerous studies have demonstrated that factors such as device structure,avalanche-generating current filaments,and electrical parameters influence the dynamic avalanche effect of the FS-IGBT.However,few studies have focused on enhancing the avalanche reliability of the FS-IGBT by adjusting circuit parameters during operation.In this paper,the dynamic avalanche effect of the FS-IGBT under UIS conditions is comprehensively investigated through a series of comparative experiments with varying circuit parameters,including bus voltage V_(DC),gate voltage V_(G),gate resistance R_(g),load inductance L,and temperature TC.Furthermore,a method to enhance the dynamic avalanche reliability of the FS-IGBT under UIS by optimizing circuit parameters is proposed.In practical applications,reducing gate voltage,increasing load inductance,and lowering temperature can effectively improve the dynamic avalanche capability of the FS-IGBT.
基金supported by the Research Project of China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited under Grant 2023YJ252.
文摘Purpose–This paper focuses on studying the reliability allocation for the railway system,aiming to improve the overall reliability of the railway system and ensure safety operation.Design/methodology/approach–In view of the complex structure of the railway system,involving many subsystems,this paper analyzes the close dynamic coupling effect between railway subsystems.Based on this,taking the railway system failure as the top event,a fault tree is constructed in this paper.Then,a reliability allocation method based on the fault tree is employed to allocate the reliability index.Finally,a numerical experiment is implemented to show the performance of the reliability allocation method.Findings–The results showed that each subsystem needs to improve its reliability to meet the specified railway system reliability requirements,and the traction power supply system is the most important subsystem,which is the most efficient in improving the reliability of the railway system.Originality/value–For the first time,starting from a holistic perspective of the system,reliability allocation is carried out based on the importance of each railway subsystem.
