[Objective] The aim was to study the Markov chain prediction method of first heavy rain in spring in Xi’an City.[Method] According to the dependent random variables of the occurrence of heavy rain,precipitation in sp...[Objective] The aim was to study the Markov chain prediction method of first heavy rain in spring in Xi’an City.[Method] According to the dependent random variables of the occurrence of heavy rain,precipitation in spring in seven meteorological stations in Xi’an City from 1959 to 2010 was selected.Its occurrence date was determined by the standard of first heavy rain in spring in meteorology.According to the length of the sequence of the problem and actual situation,six states were divided.And by dint of Markov chain,first heavy rain prediction model in spring was set up.[Result] The predicted occurrence time of first heavy rain in spring in Xi’an in 2009 and 2010 was consistent with the actual situation.The prediction effect was fine.The method had clear thought and was convenient for calculation,with certain dependence and practicality.[Conclusion] This method provided reference value for the actual forecast of first heavy rain in spring.展开更多
文摘[Objective] The aim was to study the Markov chain prediction method of first heavy rain in spring in Xi’an City.[Method] According to the dependent random variables of the occurrence of heavy rain,precipitation in spring in seven meteorological stations in Xi’an City from 1959 to 2010 was selected.Its occurrence date was determined by the standard of first heavy rain in spring in meteorology.According to the length of the sequence of the problem and actual situation,six states were divided.And by dint of Markov chain,first heavy rain prediction model in spring was set up.[Result] The predicted occurrence time of first heavy rain in spring in Xi’an in 2009 and 2010 was consistent with the actual situation.The prediction effect was fine.The method had clear thought and was convenient for calculation,with certain dependence and practicality.[Conclusion] This method provided reference value for the actual forecast of first heavy rain in spring.
