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Irrigation Water Demand Model as a Comparative Tool for Assessing Effects of Land Use Changes for Agricultural Crops in Fraser Valley, Canada 被引量:2
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作者 Skylar Kylstra Autumn D. Watkinson +1 位作者 Lewis Fausak Leslie M. Lavkulich 《Agricultural Sciences》 2021年第8期888-906,共19页
Available water for human needs and agriculture is a growing global concern. Agriculture uses approximately 70% of global freshwater, mainly for irrigation. The Lower Fraser Valley (LFV), British Columbia, is one of t... Available water for human needs and agriculture is a growing global concern. Agriculture uses approximately 70% of global freshwater, mainly for irrigation. The Lower Fraser Valley (LFV), British Columbia, is one of the most productive agricultural regions in Canada, supporting livestock production and a wide variety of crops. Water scarcity is a growing concern that threatens the long-term productivity, sustainability, and economic viability of the LFV’s agriculture. We used the BC Agriculture Water Demand Model as a tool to determine how crop choice, irrigation system, and land-use changes can affect predicted water requirements under these different conditions, which can aid stakeholders to formulate better management decisions. We conducted a comparative assessment of the irrigation water demand of seven major commercial crops, by distinct soil management groups, at nineteen representative sites, that use both sprinkler vs drip irrigation. Drip irrigation was consistently more water-efficient than sprinkler irrigation for all crops. Of the major commercial crops assessed, raspberries were the most efficient in irrigation water demand, while forage and pasture had the highest calculated irrigation water demand. Significant reductions in total irrigation water demand (up to 57%) can be made by switching irrigation systems and/or crops. This assessment can aid LFV growers in their land-use choices and could contribute to the selection of water management decisions and agricultural policies. 展开更多
关键词 Drip Irrigation Sprinkler Irrigation Water Management Water Resources Agricultural Water demand model
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An Induced Demand Model for High Speed 1 in UK 被引量:1
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作者 Francesca Pagliara John Preston 《Journal of Transportation Technologies》 2013年第1期44-51,共8页
Induced travel is an important component of travel demand and increasing attention has been paid to building analytical model to get more precise travel demand forecasting. In general, induced demand can be defined in... Induced travel is an important component of travel demand and increasing attention has been paid to building analytical model to get more precise travel demand forecasting. In general, induced demand can be defined in terms of additional trips that would be made if travel conditions improved (less congested, lower vehicle costs or tolls). In this paper the induced demand resulting from higher design speeds and, therefore by less travel time, for the High Speed 1 in UK will be modelled on the basis of the relationship between existing High Speed Rail demand (dependent variable) to existing High Speed Rail travel times and costs. The covariates include socioeconomic variables related to population and employment in the zones connected by the High Speed Rail services. This model has been calibrated by mean of a before and after study carried on the corridor, when the new High Speed Rail services was introduced. Elasticities of induced travel (trips and VMT) have been computed with respect to fares, travel time and service frequency. 展开更多
关键词 High SPEED RAIL INDUCED demand Regression models ELASTICITIES
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Seismic fragility analysis of bridges by relevance vector machine based demand prediction model
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作者 Swarup Ghosh Subrata Chakraborty 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2022年第1期253-268,共16页
A relevance vector machine(RVM)based demand prediction model is explored for efficient seismic fragility analysis(SFA)of a bridge structure.The proposed RVM model integrates both record-to-record variations of ground ... A relevance vector machine(RVM)based demand prediction model is explored for efficient seismic fragility analysis(SFA)of a bridge structure.The proposed RVM model integrates both record-to-record variations of ground motions and uncertainties of parameters characterizing the bridge model.For efficient fragility computation,ground motion intensity is included as an added dimension to the demand prediction model.To incorporate different sources of uncertainty,random realizations of different structural parameters are generated using Latin hypercube sampling technique.Mean fragility,along with its dispersions,is estimated based on the log-normal fragility model for different critical components of a bridge.The effectiveness of the proposed RVM model-based SFA of a bridge structure is elucidated numerically by comparing it with fragility results obtained by the commonly used SFA approaches,while considering the most accurate direct Monte Carlo simulation-based fragility estimates as the benchmark.The proposed RVM model provides a more accurate estimate of fragility than conventional approaches,with significantly less computational effort.In addition,the proposed model provides a measure of uncertainty in fragility estimates by constructing confidence intervals for the fragility curves. 展开更多
关键词 bridge structure seismic fragility analysis seismic demand model relevance vector machine
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Prediction of primary energy demand in China based on AGAEDE optimal model 被引量:1
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作者 Lu Liu Junbing Huang Shiwei Yu 《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 2016年第1期16-29,共14页
In this article,we present an application of Adaptive Genetic Algorithm Energy Demand Estimation(AGAEDE) optimal model to improve the efficiency of energy demand prediction.The coefficients of the two forms of the mod... In this article,we present an application of Adaptive Genetic Algorithm Energy Demand Estimation(AGAEDE) optimal model to improve the efficiency of energy demand prediction.The coefficients of the two forms of the model(both linear and quadratic) are optimized by AGA using factors,such as GDP,population,urbanization rate,and R&D inputs together with energy consumption structure,that affect demand.Since the spurious regression phenomenon occurs for a wide range of time series analysis in econometrics,we also discuss this problem for the current artificial intelligence model.The simulation results show that the proposed model is more accurate and reliable compared with other existing methods and the China's energy demand will be 5.23 billion TCE in 2020 according to the average results of the AGAEDE optimal model.Further discussion illustrates that there will be great pressure for China to fulfill the planned goal of controlling energy demand set in the National Energy Demand Project(2014—2020). 展开更多
关键词 AGAEDE optimal model spurious regression artificial intelligence model energy demand
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Finite element modeling assumptions impact on seismic response demands of MRF-buildings 被引量:4
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作者 Shehata E Abdel Raheem Ahmed K Abdel Zaher Ahmed MA Taha 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2018年第4期821-834,共14页
Recent seismic events have raised concerns over the safety and vulnerability of reinforced concrete moment resisting frame "RC-MRF" buildings. The seismic response of such buildings is greatly dependent on the compu... Recent seismic events have raised concerns over the safety and vulnerability of reinforced concrete moment resisting frame "RC-MRF" buildings. The seismic response of such buildings is greatly dependent on the computational tools used and the inherent assumptions in the modelling process. Thus, it is essential to investigate the sensitivity of the response demands to the corresponding modelling assumption. Many parameters and assumptions are justified to generate effective structural finite element(FE) models of buildings to simulate lateral behaviour and evaluate seismic design demands. As such, the present study focuses on the development of reliable FE models with various levels of refinement. The effects of the FE modelling assumptions on the seismic response demands on the design of buildings are investigated. the predictive ability of a FE model is tied to the accuracy of numerical analysis; a numerical analysis is performed for a series of symmetric buildings in active seismic zones. The results of the seismic response demands are presented in a comparative format to confirm drift and strength limits requirements. A proposed model is formulated based on a simplified modeling approach, where the most refined model is used to calibrate the simplified model. 展开更多
关键词 RC-MRF buildings design codes provisions seismic design finite element modeling modeling assumptions response demands
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Forecast for the Cameroon’s Residential Electricity Demand Based on the Multilinear Regression Model
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作者 Serge Guefano Jean Gaston Tamba +1 位作者 Louis Monkam Beguide Bonoma 《Energy and Power Engineering》 2020年第5期182-192,共11页
The electricity needs of populations in Cameroon are increasing and are still very inadequate. Companies, public buildings and households are facing frequent blackout which constrain development and social well-being.... The electricity needs of populations in Cameroon are increasing and are still very inadequate. Companies, public buildings and households are facing frequent blackout which constrain development and social well-being. Therefore, the present work tried to forecast the electricity demand in the residential sector in Cameroon, in order to contribute significantly to the mastery of electricity consumption and highlight decision-makers in this sector. Six macroeconomics parameters covering the period 1994-2014 are used for these issues. Stationarity tests within gross domestic product, gross domestic product per capita, electricity consumption, population and numbers of subscribers and households respectively;reveal that all the series are I(1). Thus, the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model has been retained to forecast the electricity demand until 2020. The cusum test and the cusum of squared test attest the stability of that model with a margin of error of 0.02%. Previsions are then more reliable and show that the electric request will skip from 1721 GWh in 2014 to more than 2481 GWh in 2020 approximatively, following a growing yearly rate of 5.36%. In order to reach its emergence, Cameroon ought to speed up its production in the domain of hydroelectric and thermal grid in order to meet the requirements in electric power in short and long term. 展开更多
关键词 modeling of the ELECTRICITY demand FORECAST RESIDENTIAL SECTOR VAR model Cameroon
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A Study on an Extensive Hierarchical Model for Demand Forecasting of Automobile Components
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作者 Cisse Sory Ibrahima Jianwu Xue Thierno Gueye 《Journal of Management Science & Engineering Research》 2021年第2期40-48,共9页
Demand forecasting and big data analytics in supply chain management are gaining interest.This is attributed to the wide range of big data analytics in supply chain management,in addition to demand forecasting,and beh... Demand forecasting and big data analytics in supply chain management are gaining interest.This is attributed to the wide range of big data analytics in supply chain management,in addition to demand forecasting,and behavioral analysis.In this article,we studied the application of big data analytics forecasting in supply chain demand forecasting in the automotive parts industry to propose classifications of these applications,identify gaps,and provide ideas for future research.Algorithms will then be classified and then applied in supply chain management such as neural networks,k-nearest neighbors,time series forecasting,clustering,regression analysis,support vector regression and support vector machines.An extensive hierarchical model for short-term auto parts demand assess-ment was employed to avoid the shortcomings of the earlier models and to close the gap that regarded mainly a single time series.The concept of extensive relevance assessment was proposed,and subsequently methods to reflect the relevance of automotive demand factors were discussed.Using a wide range of skills,the factors and co-factors are expressed in the form of a correlation characteristic matrix to ensure the degree of influence of each factor on the demand for automotive components.Then,it is compared with the existing data and predicted the short-term historical data.The result proved the predictive error is less than 6%,which supports the validity of the prediction method.This research offers the basis for the macroeconomic regulation of the government and the production of auto parts manufacturers. 展开更多
关键词 demand forecasting Supply chain management Automobile components ALGORITHM Continuous time model demand forecasting Supply chain management Automobile components Algorithm Continuous time model
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Demand Elasticity for China's Major Imported Agriculture Textile Material Based on Restricted Version of Source Differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System Model
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作者 TIAN Congying XIAO Haifeng 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2018年第4期326-332,共7页
By comparing China's import of major imported agriculture textile material( cotton and wool),the characteristics of import are concluded. On this basis,a restricted version of source differentiated almost ideal de... By comparing China's import of major imported agriculture textile material( cotton and wool),the characteristics of import are concluded. On this basis,a restricted version of source differentiated almost ideal demand system( RSDAIDS) is used to estimate the income and price elasticity of major imported agriculture textile material from the major sources based on the data from 1992 to 2015. The results are shown as follows.( 1) Although the dependency on imported cotton is lower than wool, the fluctuation of cotton import is much more drastic; China's demand for cotton is relatively price elastic with higher expenditure elasticity compared with wool; besides,the existence of complementarity is proved between imported cotton and wool.( 2) According to the import elasticity of cotton,demand for cotton imported from India shows priority over cotton from other sources; demand for cotton imported from America is the most price-sensitive one; substitution among cotton from different sources is weak.( 3) According to the import elasticity of wool,wool imported from Uruguay has bright market prospects. In addition,wool imported from Australia has irreplaceable advantage than that from New Zealand. 展开更多
关键词 AGRICULTURE TEXTILE MATERIAL retricted VERSION of sourcedifferentiated almost ideal demand system (RSDA1DS) model importdemand estimation
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Optimization Model for School Transportation Based on Supply-Demand Analyses
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作者 Jairo Ortega János Tóth +1 位作者 Juan Palaguachi Imad Sabbani 《Journal of Software Engineering and Applications》 2019年第6期215-225,共11页
This paper presents a new conception model of school transportation supply-demand ratio (STSDR) in order to define the number of school buses needed in a limited area and to describe the conditions of school transport... This paper presents a new conception model of school transportation supply-demand ratio (STSDR) in order to define the number of school buses needed in a limited area and to describe the conditions of school transport system. For this purpose, a mathematical equation was elaborated to simulate the real system based on the school transport conditions and on the estimated results of STSDR from 15 zones of Cuenca city in Ecuador. The data used in our model was collected from several diverse sources (i.e. administrative data and survey data). The estimated results have shown that our equation has described efficiently the school transport system by reaching an accuracy of 96%. Therefore, our model is suitable for statistical estimation given adequate data and will be useful in school transport planning policy. Given that, it is a support model for making decisions which seek efficiency in supply and demand balance. 展开更多
关键词 SCHOOL TRANSPORT model Optimization Supply-demand TRAVEL to SCHOOL
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The 3D simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems based on eco-environmental water demand
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作者 Zhang Guang-xin Deng Wei He Yan 《Journal of Geographical Sciences》 SCIE CSCD 2002年第2期103-112,共10页
Through the study of mutual process between groundwater systems and eco-environmental water demand, the eco-environmental water demand is brought into groundwater systems model as the important water consumption item ... Through the study of mutual process between groundwater systems and eco-environmental water demand, the eco-environmental water demand is brought into groundwater systems model as the important water consumption item and unification of groundwater抯 economic, environmental and ecological functions were taken into account. Based on eco-environmental water demand at Da抋n in Jilin province, a three-dimensional simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems was established. All water balance components of groundwater systems in 1998 and 1999 were simulated with this model and the best optimal exploitation scheme of groundwater systems in 2000 was determined, so that groundwater resource was efficiently utilized and good economic, ecologic and social benefits were obtained. 展开更多
关键词 groundwater systems eco-environmental water demand three-dimensional simulation model optimized management model ecologically fragile area
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A New Perspective on the Demand of the Cross-cultural Audiences:Lacuna and Universal Model
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作者 Zhang Hang 《学术界》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第11期316-322,共7页
Lacuna and Universal Model provides a new terminology and classification for the factors behind the success and failure of cross-cultural media content,and thus forms an analysis framework for the study of the cross-c... Lacuna and Universal Model provides a new terminology and classification for the factors behind the success and failure of cross-cultural media content,and thus forms an analysis framework for the study of the cross-cultural audiences'need.According to this model,the audience will dislike or not select foreign media content under these circumstances:(1)audiences find that the content is irrelevant or unsuitable;(2)audiences cannot comprehend the content;3)they do not like the style of such content.This model also argues that cross-cultural media content is successfully spread under these circumstances:(1)the media content shows attractive attribute to cross-cultural audience;(2)the media content is open to alternative readings. 展开更多
关键词 外国媒体 跨文化受众 发展现状 文化研究
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Application of a Bayesian Network Complex System Model Examining the Importance of Customer-Industry Engagement to Peak Electricity Demand Reduction
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作者 Desley Vine Laurie Buys +1 位作者 Jim Lewis Peter Morris 《Open Journal of Energy Efficiency》 2016年第2期31-47,共17页
This paper explores the importance of customer-industry engagement (CIE) to peak energy demand by means of a newly developed Bayesian Network (BN) complex systems model entitled the Residential Electricity Peak Demand... This paper explores the importance of customer-industry engagement (CIE) to peak energy demand by means of a newly developed Bayesian Network (BN) complex systems model entitled the Residential Electricity Peak Demand Model (REPDM). The REPDM is based on a multi-disciplinary perspective designed to solve the complex problem of residential peak energy demand. The model provides a way to conceptualise and understand the factors that shift and reduce consumer demand in peak times. To gain insight into the importance of customer-industry engagement in affecting residential peak demand, this research investigates intervention impacts and major influences through testing five scenarios using different levels of customer-industry engagement activities. Scenario testing of the model outlines the dependencies between the customer-industry engagement interventions and the probabilities that are estimated to govern the dependencies that influence peak demand. The output from the model shows that there can be a strong interaction between the level of CIE activities and interventions. The influence of CIE activity can increase public and householder support for peak reduction and the model shows how the economic, technical and social interventions can achieve greater peak demand reductions when well-designed with appropriate levels of CIE activities. 展开更多
关键词 Peak Electricity demand Residential Electricity Complex Systems modelling Customer-Industry-Engagement
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基于Kano模型的老龄居民智慧健康管理需求分析
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作者 韩伟 陈英 +4 位作者 胡屹 秦彦 燕照熙 张明敏 谢杨 《健康教育与健康促进》 2026年第1期60-64,共5页
目的研究老龄居民应用智慧驿站开展健康管理的需求情况,为设计对应的健康管理方案提供依据。方法采用整群随机抽样方法,随机抽取386名60岁以上老龄居民开展智慧健康管理需求问卷调查。利用Kano模型分析方法,对老龄居民智慧健康管理的需... 目的研究老龄居民应用智慧驿站开展健康管理的需求情况,为设计对应的健康管理方案提供依据。方法采用整群随机抽样方法,随机抽取386名60岁以上老龄居民开展智慧健康管理需求问卷调查。利用Kano模型分析方法,对老龄居民智慧健康管理的需求层次进行分析,确定项目的优先顺序。结果在18个智慧健康管理需求项目中,6项为期望型需求,属于重点优化区域;12项为魅力型需求,属于待改进区域。其中,慢性疾病的康复指导与健康饮食的指导和建议是优先关注项目。结论老龄居民智慧健康管理工作中,要以智慧驿站为平台,以老年人慢性疾病的康复指导为重点,给予健康饮食的指导和建议;深入社区定期开展健康讲座,内容涵盖疾病预防知识并提供中医药健康服务,如有异常病例及时发出健康风险提示,从而有效提高老年人群智慧健康管理的满意度。 展开更多
关键词 老龄居民 健康管理 需求分析 卡诺模型
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An entropy-based multi-criteria approach for intensity measure selection in seismic resilience of structures
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作者 Junzhi Liao Davide Forcellini +1 位作者 Jason Fang Lizhi Sun 《Resilient Cities and Structures》 2026年第1期1-13,共13页
Seismic resilience(SR)has emerged as a critical focus in earthquake engineering to evaluate the ability of structures to endure,recover from,and adapt to seismic events.This study presents an entropy-based multicriter... Seismic resilience(SR)has emerged as a critical focus in earthquake engineering to evaluate the ability of structures to endure,recover from,and adapt to seismic events.This study presents an entropy-based multicriteria approach for selecting optimal intensity measures(IMs)to assess SR of structures.Eight representative IMs,derived from time histories and response spectrum are evaluated.Incremental dynamic analysis is con-ducted on a reinforced concrete structure,using engineering demand parameters such as the maximum interstory drift and floor acceleration to generate fragility curves via a probabilistic seismic demand model.The optimal IMs are identified through a multi-criteria decision-making process,with scores calculated using the entropy weight method to incorporate factors such as efficiency,proficiency,and uncertainty based on infor-mation entropy.An effective SR framework is derived from fragility results.The findings indicate that peak ground velocity and spectral IMs are the most effective,while energy-related IMs underestimate SR.The study highlights the importance of optimizing IMs for more accurate seismic resilience assessments.The proposed entropy-based multi-criteria approach is shown to be both reliable and effective for selecting optimal IMs in this context. 展开更多
关键词 Intensity measure Seismic resilience Multi-criteria decision making Probabilistic seismic demand model ENTROPY Uncertainty quantification
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基于组合预测模型的福建省卫生人力资源需求预测研究
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作者 赵晓东 林修全 吴生根 《卫生软科学》 2026年第2期69-73,88,共6页
[目的]研究当前福建省卫生人力资源供给现状,预测卫生人员变化趋势,为推动福建省卫生人力资源供需平衡提供参考。[方法]采用组合预测方法,分别运用灰色GM(1,1)、二次回归、Holt-Winters线性和ARIMA模型进行单项预测,再以预测误差平方和... [目的]研究当前福建省卫生人力资源供给现状,预测卫生人员变化趋势,为推动福建省卫生人力资源供需平衡提供参考。[方法]采用组合预测方法,分别运用灰色GM(1,1)、二次回归、Holt-Winters线性和ARIMA模型进行单项预测,再以预测误差平方和倒数法确定各模型权重构建组合模型,经误差对比验证其有效性。[结果]组合模型预测精度最优,稳定性最佳,卫技人员、执业(助理)医师、注册护士3类卫生人力的RMSE分别为0.25、0.45、0.09,MAE分别为0.19、0.34、0.07。2024—2028年3类卫生人力将持续增长,预计卫生技术人员数从33.98万人增至39.45万人、执业(助理)医师数从13.25万人增至15.62万人、注册护士数从16.87万人增至19.91万人,年均增长率分别为4.28%、5.80%、4.33%,均低于2009—2023年历史增长率。[结论]组合预测模型适用于区域卫生人力资源的中长期预测,福建省卫生人力需求仍处于增长期,需从优化结构、提升素质和完善政策等方面加强人才队伍建设。 展开更多
关键词 卫生人力资源 组合模型 需求预测 福建省
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鸭绿江跨境流域生态系统服务供需时空演变
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作者 王耕 苏芝榕 《水土保持研究》 北大核心 2026年第2期414-424,共11页
[目的]探究跨境流域生态系统服务供给与需求的变化,阐明鸭绿江流域生态系统服务的供需均衡关系,为全境可持续发展及国际合作提供科学参考。[方法]借助InVEST模型、ArcGIS等工具,评估鸭绿江全流域1990—2020年固碳、生境质量和土壤保持... [目的]探究跨境流域生态系统服务供给与需求的变化,阐明鸭绿江流域生态系统服务的供需均衡关系,为全境可持续发展及国际合作提供科学参考。[方法]借助InVEST模型、ArcGIS等工具,评估鸭绿江全流域1990—2020年固碳、生境质量和土壤保持生态系统服务供需量,研究了其时空演变规律和供需比,再基于SWAT划分子流域,分析了各流域子单元的差异。[结果](1)研究期内,固碳和生境质量服务供给量均呈下降趋势,空间分布相似;土壤保持服务在研究期内呈波动上升,高值区由流域西部扩散到东部。(2)生态系统各项服务需求量的变化趋势基本一致,呈上升趋势;固碳与生境质量空间分布基本一致,土壤保持需求量高值向流域东部与中上游扩散。(3)各项服务的空间分布在栅格尺度上呈现供需不平衡的特征;子流域尺度上,供需比空间变化较小,固碳与生境质量高值集中于流域东部;土壤保持服务高值集中于流域西部。[结论]鸭绿江流域的生态系统服务供需现象错配突出,供需匹配不平衡,中朝两国应建立跨境生态管理合作机制共同推动鸭绿江流域生态保护。 展开更多
关键词 鸭绿江流域 生态系统服务 供需关系 InVEST模型 子流域
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中国乳制品进口需求弹性及市场格局研究——基于Rotterdam模型的实证分析
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作者 贺蕾 李书阳 甄小榆 《中国乳业》 2026年第1期2-8,共7页
中国作为全球最大的乳制品进口国和消费国,乳制品进口贸易呈现逆差不断扩大、进口市场集中度高等显著特点。本文利用2015—2023年中国乳制品进口月度数据,对乳制品的进口来源国、进口总量、进口产品结构等现状及趋势进行分析,运用Rotter... 中国作为全球最大的乳制品进口国和消费国,乳制品进口贸易呈现逆差不断扩大、进口市场集中度高等显著特点。本文利用2015—2023年中国乳制品进口月度数据,对乳制品的进口来源国、进口总量、进口产品结构等现状及趋势进行分析,运用Rotterdam模型测算乳制品进口需求弹性。结果显示:中国对乳制品进口需求刚性,对新西兰和澳大利亚的乳制品进口具有显著偏好。据此,应强化质量规制与关税调控,推进进口来源多元化与监管精细化,完善国际议价机制与规则话语权,并提出应对进口贸易激增及乳制品进口规制的相应措施。 展开更多
关键词 乳制品 进口需求 需求弹性 Rotterdam模型
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知信行模式下弹性按需探视对ICU患者谵妄发生的影响
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作者 方业香 韩江英 +3 位作者 杜小玲 伍珊珊 李娟 杨雪 《中华急危重症护理杂志》 2026年第2期148-154,共7页
目的探究知信行模式下弹性按需探视干预模式对ICU患者谵妄发生的影响。方法选取2024年12月—2025年3月在合肥市某三级甲等医院ICU治疗的80例患者为研究对象,将其随机分为试验组和对照组各40例。试验组实施知信行模式下弹性按需探视干预... 目的探究知信行模式下弹性按需探视干预模式对ICU患者谵妄发生的影响。方法选取2024年12月—2025年3月在合肥市某三级甲等医院ICU治疗的80例患者为研究对象,将其随机分为试验组和对照组各40例。试验组实施知信行模式下弹性按需探视干预模式,对照组实施常规护理,干预前14 d及干预后3、7、14 d后采用ICU谵妄量表比较两组患者的谵妄水平,并在干预前后14 d评估两组患者的护理满意度评分、依从性评分,比较两组患者的护理满意度水平、依从性水平。结果干预后,试验组患者谵妄得分低于对照组(P<0.001),护理依从性高于对照组(P<0.05);两组患者谵妄得分均下降,且试验组患者满意度得分高于对照组(P<0.001)。两组患者依从性及护理满意度水平均较干预前有所上升。结论基于知信行模式下的弹性按需探视干预应用于ICU患者中,可降低其谵妄水平,提高治疗依从性,提升患者及家属的护理满意度。 展开更多
关键词 重症监护病房 知信行模式 弹性按需探视 谵妄
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基于卡诺模型的功能楼宇人群家庭医生签约服务需求特征研究
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作者 蔡丞俊 徐昕 +6 位作者 邵洁 周路路 张胜冰 黄蛟灵 石建伟 密一恺 黄倩 《中国全科医学》 北大核心 2026年第9期1187-1193,共7页
背景随着家庭医生签约服务制度持续深入,如何将有效的家庭医生签约服务覆盖到功能楼宇人群成为关注焦点之一,切实了解该类人群的需求特征是制订有效策略的重要手段。目的 了解功能楼宇人群的家庭医生签约服务需求,为完善和优化功能楼宇... 背景随着家庭医生签约服务制度持续深入,如何将有效的家庭医生签约服务覆盖到功能楼宇人群成为关注焦点之一,切实了解该类人群的需求特征是制订有效策略的重要手段。目的 了解功能楼宇人群的家庭医生签约服务需求,为完善和优化功能楼宇的家庭医生签约服务提供参考。方法 于2024年3—4月,采用典型抽样法在课题组所在辖区选取功能楼宇3个,采用整群随机抽样法在功能社区抽取中青年396名进行问卷调查。问卷内容包括一般人口学信息、对家庭医生签约服务需求的KANO问卷、过去6个月接受家庭医生签约服务最多的时间段及支付意愿等。对家庭医生签约服务需求的KANO问卷进行信效度分析,构建Better-Worse矩阵对19个服务条目进行KANO需求特征分析,根据不同服务时段和支付意愿进行敏感性分析。结果 共回收396份有效问卷,19个签约服务条目形成的量表Cronbach's α系数为0.991。按KANO模型对条目进行初步归类,19个条目均属于无差异属性项目,构建BetterWorse矩阵对需求属性进行进一步划分,诊疗服务中的“代配药服务”“专家坐诊服务”2个条目,健康管理服务中的“体检报告解读和健康咨询”“眼症防治”“颈椎病防治”等9个条目归属为“期望属性”项目,诊疗服务中的“延伸处方”服务归属为魅力属性项目,其余为无差异属性项目。敏感性分析显示:“长处方”服务在上班前1 h、周末时段的SR值最高,“中医体质辨识/推拿/艾灸/拔罐/刮痧/针灸”服务在午间1 h服务的SR值最高;支付意愿在0~50元·人^(-1)·年^(-1)和≥201元·人^(-1)·年^(-1)时“专家坐诊”服务的SR值最高,支付意愿在151~200元·人^(-1)·年^(-1)时“中医体质辨识/推拿/艾灸/拔罐/刮痧/针灸”服务的SR值最高。结论 功能楼宇人群对家庭医生签约下的专项化健康管理服务需求度较高,需求内容多元化,家庭医生提供的长处方、代配药、专家坐诊等签约诊疗服务是满足中青年人群服务需求的基石,应进一步优化和完善针对此类人群的服务内容设计。 展开更多
关键词 家庭医生签约服务 功能楼宇 卫生服务需求 KANO模型
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欧盟碳边境调节机制对中国出口贸易的影响:基于量化贸易结构模型的评估
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作者 程时雄 孙雨辰 韩孝 《国际经贸探索》 北大核心 2026年第2期4-21,共18页
2023年10月,欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)正式生效,这将对依赖高碳排放产品出口的中国制造业构成严峻挑战。文章基于量化贸易结构模型,模拟分析欧盟实施CBAM背景下中国出口贸易的动态变化,考察技术进步与国家间消费需求变动对双边贸易成本... 2023年10月,欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)正式生效,这将对依赖高碳排放产品出口的中国制造业构成严峻挑战。文章基于量化贸易结构模型,模拟分析欧盟实施CBAM背景下中国出口贸易的动态变化,考察技术进步与国家间消费需求变动对双边贸易成本和出口规模的影响。结果表明,技术进步虽能有效降低双边贸易成本,但国家间消费需求扩张却通过抬升CBAM税负推高了双边贸易成本,且该推升效应往往超过技术降本的抵消效应;即便技术持续提升,多数行业出口量仍呈收缩趋势,其中高碳排放行业的出口量下滑更为明显。进一步分析发现,在欧盟实施CBAM背景下高碳排放行业面临经济与就业损失,而低碳排放行业则获得比较优势,实现就业、利润与环境绩效的协同提升。基于此,文章建议加快中国碳交易市场向高碳排放行业扩容,实施定向技术补贴,并通过与欧盟加强沟通推动碳交易市场规则建立,以协调贸易竞争力提升与低碳转型目标。 展开更多
关键词 欧盟碳边境调节机制 出口贸易 技术进步 国家间消费需求 量化贸易结构模型
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