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Rockburst tendency prediction in a deeply buried tunnel based on numerical simulations
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作者 HUO Yuxiang HUANG Jian +3 位作者 JU Nengpan ZHANG Min WANG Qingwu HU Yong 《Journal of Mountain Science》 2025年第4期1261-1273,共13页
Deeply buried mountain tunnels are often exposed to the risk of rock bursts,which always cause serious damage to the supporting structures and threaten the safety of the engineers.Due to the limited data available,a s... Deeply buried mountain tunnels are often exposed to the risk of rock bursts,which always cause serious damage to the supporting structures and threaten the safety of the engineers.Due to the limited data available,a suitable approach to predict the rockburst tendency at the preliminary stage becomes very important.In this study,an integrated methodology combining 3D initial stress inversion and rockburst tendency prediction was developed and subsequently applied to a case study of the Sangzhuling Tunnel on the Sichuan–Tibet Railway.The numerical modelling involved inverting the initial stress field using a multiple linear regression method.The tunnel excavation was simulated separately by FDM and DEM,based on a stress boundary condition from the inverted stress field.The comparative analysis demonstrates that the rockburst ratio calculated using DEM(76.70%)exhibits a slight increase compared to FDM(75.38%),and the rockburst location is consistent with the actual situation.This suggests that DEM is more suitable for simulating the stress redistribution during excavation in a jointed rock mass.The numerical simulation combined with the deviatoric stress approach effectively predicts rockburst tendency,meeting the engineering requirements.Despite its limitations,numerical simulation remains a reliable method for predicting rock bursts. 展开更多
关键词 Geostress inversion Rockburst tendency Numerical simulation Deeply buried tunnel
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Analysis of the Rapid Intensification Mechanism for a Super Arctic Cyclone Based on a New Surface Pressure Tendency Equation
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作者 Wei ZHONG Qian QIAN +3 位作者 Yao YAO Deyuan ZHANG Yuan SUN Huadong DU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 2025年第5期842-854,共13页
The synoptic process of a super Arctic cyclone in August 2016(AC16)is investigated based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,and the key factors affecting the rapid intensification(RI)of AC16 and their r... The synoptic process of a super Arctic cyclone in August 2016(AC16)is investigated based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model,and the key factors affecting the rapid intensification(RI)of AC16 and their relative contributions are analyzed by diagnosing a new surface pressure tendency equation(SPTE).The major physical mechanisms behind the two RI stages of AC16 are revealed.The trajectory,intensity changes,and structural characteristics of AC16 are well simulated by the WRF model.A diagnosis based on the SPTE promisingly reproduces the two RI stages of AC16.The leading factor that influenced the intensity of AC16 was identified to be the air-column potential temperature tendency,while the pressure change at the upper boundary had less of an impact.Further analysis reveals that the horizontal potential temperature advection was the decisive factor in a warming of the air column.Specifically,the upper-level warm advection generated by the strong wind field of the upper-level jet played a dominant role in warming the air column,which caused the initial RI of AC16.The AC16 movement into a strong potential temperature gradient generated by tropopause polar vortices increased the upper-level warm advection,which warmed the air column and thereby induced the second RI of AC16.However,the net effect of vertical potential temperature advection and latent heating,as well as radiation processes,caused a cooling of the air column and thereby negatively contributed to the RI of AC16. 展开更多
关键词 Arctic cyclone rapid intensification surface pressure tendency equation tropopause polar vortices
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Mechanical response and impact tendency index correction of gangue-coal combined structure
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作者 WEN Zhi-jie XU Chang-long +2 位作者 GONG Feng-qiang ZUO Yu-jun SONG Zhen-qi 《Journal of Central South University》 2025年第6期2288-2306,共19页
To investigate the mechanical response during failure and the impact tendency characteristics of gangue-coal combined structure,uniaxial compression tests were conducted on nine groups of combined structures,each with... To investigate the mechanical response during failure and the impact tendency characteristics of gangue-coal combined structure,uniaxial compression tests were conducted on nine groups of combined structures,each with varying gangue thicknesses and positions.The response patterns of compressive strength,elastic modulus,pre-peak accumulated energy,elastic energy index,and impact energy index were systematically analyzed.Furthermore,a new index for evaluating the impact tendency of gangue-containing coal was proposed,and its effectiveness was verified.The findings are as follows:(1)As the gangue thickness increases,both the compressive strength and the pre-peak energy of the combined structure decrease,whereas the elastic modulus increases accordingly.When the gangue is located in the lower middle position,the combined structure exhibits the lowest compressive strength and elastic modulus but the highest pre peak energy.(2)As the gangue shifts toward the middle position of the combined structure,the failure mode gradually transitions from comple te“crushing”failure to an incomplete“point-type”failure.As gangue thickness further increases,the failure region evolves from overall failure to localized failure,with the degree of failure shifting from complete to incomplete.The K_(crc)value corresponding to“crushing”complete failure is higher and has a stronger impact tendency compared to“point-type”incomplete failure.(3)The proposed comprehensive impact instability evaluation index K_(crc)for the gangue-coal combined structure has shown a significant positive correlation with compressive strength(R_(c))and impact energy index(K_(E)),further verifyi ng its rationality in comprehensively assessing the impact tendency of gangue-containing coal bodies.Applying this index to the evaluation of gangue-containing coal seams provides a more accurate reflection of their impact tendency compared with the residual energy index,which has a wide range of potential applications and practical significance. 展开更多
关键词 gangue-coal combined structure mechanical response peak elastic energy density difference impact tendency comprehensive impact instability index
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Effect of rare earth and differential low frequency pulsed magnetic field on hot cracking tendency of large-scale ZK61 alloy ingots
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作者 Gang Zeng Hong Liu +2 位作者 Jianlong Li Jintao Xiong Yong Liu 《Journal of Rare Earths》 2025年第12期2799-2811,I0007,共14页
During direct chilling(DC)casting of ZK61 alloys,the primary and secondary cooling causes strong thermal gradients,which leads to the uneven crystallization rate and thermal contraction in different positions of the i... During direct chilling(DC)casting of ZK61 alloys,the primary and secondary cooling causes strong thermal gradients,which leads to the uneven crystallization rate and thermal contraction in different positions of the ingot.The consequences manifested appearance of heterogeneous grains,huge casting stresses,and even hot cracking flaws.In this paper,chemical and physical methods were integrated to produce large-scale magnesium(Mg)alloy ingots.A φ525 mm ZK61-RE alloy ingot that was refined,homogeneous,and free from hot cracking was obtained via the DC process coupled with a differential low frequency pulsed magnetic field(DLPM).The effects of rare earth(RE)and DLPM on the hot cracking tendency were investigated,and the mechanism of hot cracking formation and modification in largescale ingots was revealed.The findings indicate that the addition of moderate amounts of RE lessens the tendency of hot cracking in large-scale ZK61 alloy ingots.This is mainly attributed to the addition of RE increases the content of the second phase,thus enhancing the ability of the eutectic liquid phase to feed the cracking.With the introduction of DLPM,the grain sizes are significantly refined and homogenized,and there is no obvious hot cracking observed in the ingot.This is because the coupling of the DLPM provides a more homogeneous temperature field,leading to the synchronization of the solidification process,and the consequent reduction of the casting stress,thus reducing the driving force for the formation of hot cracking.In addition,the casting conditions are modified to enhance the ability of solidification feeding and the resistance to hot cracking.This work provides theoretical and practical references for the preparation of large-scale high-quality Mg alloy ingots. 展开更多
关键词 Large-scale Mg alloy ingots Direct chilling casting Rare earths Differential low frequency pulsed magnetic field Hot cracking tendency
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Applicability of existing criteria of rockburst tendency of sandstone in coal mines
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作者 Tianqi Nan Linming Dou +3 位作者 Piotr Małkowski Wu Cai Haobing Li Shun Liu 《International Journal of Mining Science and Technology》 2025年第3期417-431,共15页
To evaluate the accuracy of rockburst tendency classification in coal-bearing sandstone strata,this study conducted uniaxial compression loading and unloading tests on sandstone samples with four distinct grain sizes.... To evaluate the accuracy of rockburst tendency classification in coal-bearing sandstone strata,this study conducted uniaxial compression loading and unloading tests on sandstone samples with four distinct grain sizes.The tests involved loading the samples to 60%,70%,and 80%of their uniaxial compressive strength,followed by unloading and reloading until failure.Key parameters such as the elastic energy index and linear elasticity criteria were derived from these tests.Additionally,rock fragments were collected to calculate their initial ejection kinetic energy,serving as a measure of rockburst tendency.The classification of rockburst tendency was conducted using grading methods based on burst energy index(WET),pre-peak stored elastic energy(PES)and experimental observations.Multi-class classification and regression analyses were applied to machine learning models using experimental data to predict rockburst tendency levels.A comparative analysis of models from two libraries revealed that the Random Forest model achieved the highest accuracy in classification,while the Ada Boost Regressor model excelled in regression predictions.This study highlights that on a laboratory scale,integrating ejection kinetic energy with the unloading ratio,failure load,W_(ET)and PES through machine learning offers a highly accurate and reliable approach for determining rockburst tendency levels. 展开更多
关键词 Burst energy index Pre-peak stored elastic energy Ejection energy of rock fragments Machine learning Rockburst tendency classification
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Self-heating tendency evaluation of sulfide ores based on nonlinear multi-parameters fusion 被引量:1
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作者 潘伟 吴超 +1 位作者 李孜军 杨月平 《Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第2期582-589,共8页
In order to reveal the nonlinear dynamics characteristics of unsteady self-heating process of sulfide ores, nine different kinds of sulfide ore samples from a pyrite mine in China were taken as experimental materials ... In order to reveal the nonlinear dynamics characteristics of unsteady self-heating process of sulfide ores, nine different kinds of sulfide ore samples from a pyrite mine in China were taken as experimental materials and their self-heating characteristics were measured in laboratory. Furthermore, the measured temperature was studied by integrating wavelet transform, nonlinear characteristic parameters extraction and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The results indicate that only the ore samples 1, 2, 6 and 9 have obvious self-heating phenomenon, and their self-heating initiative temperatures are 220 ℃, 239 ℃, 220 ℃ and 220 ℃, respectively, which means that they are difficult to produce self-heating under normal mining conditions. The correlation dimension of self-heating process is fraction and the maximum Lyapunov exponent is positive, which means that it is feasible to study the self-heating process based on chaotic dynamics theory. The nonlinearities of self-heating process of these four samples (ore samples 1, 2, 6 and 9) are 0.8227, 0.7521, 0.9401 and 0.8827 respectively and the order of the samples according to these results is: sample 6, sample 9, sample 1, sample 2, which is consistent with the measured results of self-heating characteristics. Therefore, the nonlinearity method can be used to evaluate the self-heating tendency of sulfide ores, and it is an effective verification of the reliability of measured results. 展开更多
关键词 sulfide ores self-heating process nonlinear characteristic parameter NONLINEARITY self-heating tendency
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The Feminist Tendency in Hotel du Lac
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作者 朱晓静 《海外英语》 2019年第24期225-226,共2页
It is true that some important feminist literary theories apply to Hotel du Lac,which illustrates clearly Brookner’s deep concern over modern women’s predicament in favor of their interests,and thus proves her stron... It is true that some important feminist literary theories apply to Hotel du Lac,which illustrates clearly Brookner’s deep concern over modern women’s predicament in favor of their interests,and thus proves her strong tendency to feminism.And then it is pointed out that the reason for Brookner’s perverse attitude toward feminism mainly lies in her unwillingness to confine herself to the category of feminism and actually Brookner has transcended the more stereotypical feminism. 展开更多
关键词 FEMINIST tendency TRANSCENDENCE
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A Study of Romantic Tendency in Jane Austen's works——A Comparison between Sense and Sensibility and Persuasion
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作者 具东梅 《疯狂英语(理论版)》 2017年第4期165-166,共2页
Sense and Sensibility and Persuasion is Jane Austen's first and last published works respectively, which are read widely all over the world. Austen proclaims that feeling should be governed by reason in Sense and ... Sense and Sensibility and Persuasion is Jane Austen's first and last published works respectively, which are read widely all over the world. Austen proclaims that feeling should be governed by reason in Sense and Sensibility and that reason should be compatible with feeling in Persuasion. This paper attempts to explore romantic tendency in Austen's works according to the comparison and contrast between her two novels. Through comparison and contrast, we can see the transformation of Marianne from a lady of sensibility to a sensible lady and the growth of Anne into a lady with romance. 展开更多
关键词 Jane Austen FEELING REASON romantic tendency
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Variation Characteristics and Tendency of Precipitation in Chaoyang Area between 1908 and 2008 被引量:3
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作者 周国华 谭明军 +1 位作者 穆春华 常忠波 《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 CAS 2010年第1期26-29,共4页
According to the precipitation sequence of Beijing City from 1900 to 1958,the precipitation sequence of Chengde City were revised and extended.Then the precipitation sequence of Chaoyang City were revised and extended... According to the precipitation sequence of Beijing City from 1900 to 1958,the precipitation sequence of Chengde City were revised and extended.Then the precipitation sequence of Chaoyang City were revised and extended with the precipitation sequence of Chengde City to form 100-years precipitation sequence of Chaoyang.The results showed that the 100-years precipitation sequence of Chaoyang indicated a decreasing trend and obvious periodic variation with the change of age.That is,a 10-year rainy period (approximately 525.0 mm) appeared every 30 a,while the 30-year drought period was approximately 460.0 mm,65.0 mm lower than the former.Moreover,an obviously heavy drought lasting for 2-4 a appeared every 20 a. 展开更多
关键词 100-years precipitation Sequence revision Periodic variation Characteristics tendency China
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Development Tendency in Main Fields of Reading Researches
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作者 石晶 《中国校外教育》 2011年第9期89-89,106,共2页
The last few decades have witnessed the publication of a considerable amount of empirical evidence supporting what Krashen has called "the power of reading"(Krashen,1993).There is a widespread approval that ... The last few decades have witnessed the publication of a considerable amount of empirical evidence supporting what Krashen has called "the power of reading"(Krashen,1993).There is a widespread approval that reading itself leads to better reading,better vocabulary,better writing,and better control of grammar in both first and second languages.In this article,the following research areas will be discussed,which can be mainly divided into the following 20 categories. 展开更多
关键词 英语教学 教学方法 大学英语 英语翻译
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Sensitivity to Tendency Perturbations of Tropical Cyclone Short-range Intensity Forecasts Generated by WRF 被引量:10
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作者 Xiaohao QIN Wansuo DUAN Hui XU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2020年第3期291-306,共16页
The present study uses the nonlinear singular vector(NFSV)approach to identify the optimally-growing tendency perturbations of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for tropical cyclone(TC)intensity forecasts... The present study uses the nonlinear singular vector(NFSV)approach to identify the optimally-growing tendency perturbations of the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for tropical cyclone(TC)intensity forecasts.For nine selected TC cases,the NFSV-tendency perturbations of the WRF model,including components of potential temperature and/or moisture,are calculated when TC intensities are forecasted with a 24-hour lead time,and their respective potential temperature components are demonstrated to have more impact on the TC intensity forecasts.The perturbations coherently show barotropic structure around the central location of the TCs at the 24-hour lead time,and their dominant energies concentrate in the middle layers of the atmosphere.Moreover,such structures do not depend on TC intensities and subsequent development of the TC.The NFSV-tendency perturbations may indicate that the model uncertainty that is represented by tendency perturbations but associated with the inner-core of TCs,makes larger contributions to the TC intensity forecast uncertainty.Further analysis shows that the TC intensity forecast skill could be greatly improved as preferentially superimposing an appropriate tendency perturbation associated with the sensitivity of NFSVs to correct the model,even if using a WRF with coarse resolution. 展开更多
关键词 sensitivity tendency perturbation tropical cyclone INTENSITY forecasts
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Symmetry and tendency judgment of Ms≥8. 0 strong earthquakes in Chile 被引量:12
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作者 Jin Junfang Yin Shuyan Yan Junping 《Geodesy and Geodynamics》 2014年第1期34-40,共7页
The Ms ≥ 8.0 strong earthquakes occurring in Chile since 1800 were analyzed using the ternary, quaternary, and quinary commensurability methods and the butterfly structure diagram, and it was believed that the earthq... The Ms ≥ 8.0 strong earthquakes occurring in Chile since 1800 were analyzed using the ternary, quaternary, and quinary commensurability methods and the butterfly structure diagram, and it was believed that the earthquake signal in Chile in 2014 is relatively strong, a large earthquake is likely to occur in Chile in 2014. An analysis of spatial epicenter migrations showed that the longitudinal and latitudinal epicenter migra- tions have symmetry and synchronism, and there were five obvious northward migrations and four southward migrations. The symmetry axis of the longitudinal migrations is at about 71.7°W and that of the latitudinal mi- grations is at about 30°S; these spatial symmetry axes are located at the subduction zone on the western margin of South America, where two major plates (the Nazca Plate and the South American Plate) converge. 展开更多
关键词 SYMMETRY tendency judgment COMMENSURABILITY butterfly structure Chile
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Lowering ash slagging and fouling tendency of high-alkali coal by hydrothermal pretreatment 被引量:5
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作者 Mingshun Yang Qiang Xie +3 位作者 Xin Wang He Dong Hao Zhang Chunqi Li 《International Journal of Mining Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CSCD 2019年第3期521-525,共5页
High-alkali species in coal are notorious for causing ash slagging and fouling incidents.In this paper,four high-alkali coals were individually subject to hydrothermal pretreatment(HTP),within a batch-type autoclave a... High-alkali species in coal are notorious for causing ash slagging and fouling incidents.In this paper,four high-alkali coals were individually subject to hydrothermal pretreatment(HTP),within a batch-type autoclave at 300 -C for 1 h,and the treated coals were analyzed,along with the oxygen-containing functional groups determined by Fourier transform infrared spectrometer(FT-IR).Then the alkali species and other components in the coal ash were quantified by X-ray fluorescence(XRF)for evaluating the ash slagging and fouling tendency.Apart from this,FactSage was adopted to simulate the occurrence and transformation of alkali species during coal thermal conversion ending at various temperatures.The findings indicate that the treated coals are superior to the parent ones in terms of certain remarkable changes via HTP.The moisture,oxygen and sulfur of the hydrothermally treated coals decline obviously,while the calorific value rises sharply.HTP could reduce the alkali species to less than 2%(%,by weight,equivalent to Na2O in dry ash),with a maximum removal ratio of 88.9%,lowering the ash slagging and fouling tendency.The proposed mechanism of HTP was that the alkali species in coal matrix became released due to the breakage of the coal functional groups and micropores during HTP. 展开更多
关键词 HYDROTHERMAL PRETREATMENT High-alkali COAL ASH SLAGGING and fouling tendency Lowering FactSage
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Effect of Zn/Mg/Cu Additions on Hot Cracking Tendency and Performances of Al-Cu-Mg-Zn Alloys for Liquid Forging 被引量:4
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作者 孙永根 杜之明 +2 位作者 SU Yanni CHENG Yuansheng LIU Yongwang 《Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Materials Science)》 SCIE EI CAS 2020年第1期176-182,共7页
During the process of liquid forging, a host of hot cracking defects were found in the Al-CuMg-Zn aluminum alloy. Therefore, mechanical tests and analyses by optical microscope, scanning electron microscope, and X-ray... During the process of liquid forging, a host of hot cracking defects were found in the Al-CuMg-Zn aluminum alloy. Therefore, mechanical tests and analyses by optical microscope, scanning electron microscope, and X-ray diffraction were performed to research the influences of zinc, magnesium, and copper(three main alloying elements) on hot cracking tendency and mechanical properties. It was concluded that all the three alloying elements exerted different effects on the performances of newly designed alloys. And the impact of microstructures on properties of alloys was stronger than that of solution strengthening. Among new alloys, Al-5 Cu-4.5 Mg-2.5 Zn alloy shows better properties as follows: σb=327 MPa, δ=2.7%, HB=107 N/mm^2, and HCS=40. 展开更多
关键词 liquid FORGING Al-Cu-Mg-Zn alloys mechanical properties hot CRACKING tendency
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Evaluation of spontaneous combustion tendency of sulfide ore heap based on nonlinear parameters 被引量:4
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作者 PAN Wei WU Chao +2 位作者 LI Zi-jun WU Zhi-wei YANG Yue-ping 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2017年第10期2431-2437,共7页
To explore a new evaluation method for spontaneous combustion tendency of different areas in sulfide ore heap, ore samples from a pyrite mine in China were taken as experimental materials, and the temperature variatio... To explore a new evaluation method for spontaneous combustion tendency of different areas in sulfide ore heap, ore samples from a pyrite mine in China were taken as experimental materials, and the temperature variations of the measuring points of simulated ore heap were measured. Combined with wavelet transform and nonlinear parameters extraction, a new method for spontaneous combustion tendency of different areas in sulfide ore heap based on nonlinear parameters was proposed and its reliability was verified by field test. The results indicate that temperature field evolution of the simulated ore heap presents significant spatial difference during self-heating process. Area with the maximum increasing extent of temperature in sulfide ore heap changes notably with the proceeding of self-heating reaction. Self-heating of sulfide ore heap is a chaotic evolution process, which means that it is feasible to evaluate spontaneous combustion tendency of different areas by nonlinear analysis method. There is a relatively strong correlation between the maximum Lyapunov exponent and spontaneous combustion tendency with the correlation coefficient of 0.9792. Furthermore, the sort of the maximum Lyapunov exponent is consistent with that of spontaneous combustion tendency. Therefore, spontaneous combustion tendency of different areas in sulfide ore heap can be evaluated by means of the maximum Lyapunov exponent method. 展开更多
关键词 SULFIDE ore HEAP spontaneous combustion tendency SELF-HEATING process nonlinear parameters maximum LYAPUNOV EXPONENT
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Hot cracking tendency test and simulation of 7075 semi-solid aluminium alloy 被引量:9
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作者 Bing ZHOU Shuai LU +3 位作者 Kai-le XU Chun XU Zhan-yong WANG Bin-jun WANG 《Transactions of Nonferrous Metals Society of China》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第2期318-332,共15页
The hot cracking tendency of 7075 semi-solid alloy under different conditions was studied by critical diameter method.The experiment and simulation results show that the dendrite arms of the rod grow from the edge to ... The hot cracking tendency of 7075 semi-solid alloy under different conditions was studied by critical diameter method.The experiment and simulation results show that the dendrite arms of the rod grow from the edge to the center.The smaller the diameter of the rod is,the more obvious the directional growth of dendrite is,and the greater the tendency of hot cracking is.Compared with ordinary melt,for semi-solid slurry,increasing mould temperature or decreasing pouring temperature can significantly decrease hot cracking tendency of 7075 alloy,decreasing hot cracking grade from 256 to 100 mm^2.Furthermore,based on the RDG criterion,the effects of solidification conditions on the hot cracking tendency were discussed combined with simulation.At the same time,the application and development of RDG criterion were also researched. 展开更多
关键词 hot cracking tendency semi-solid slurry 7075 aluminium alloy RDG criterion numerical simulation
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The effect of electronic orbital interactions on p-type doping tendency in ZnO series: First-principles calculations 被引量:2
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作者 张芳英 游建强 +1 位作者 曾雉 钟国华 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2007年第12期3815-3819,共5页
The electronic structures and optical properties of B3 ZnO series of Zn4X4-yMy(X :O, S, Se or Te; M = N, Sb, C1 or I; y = 0 or 1) are studied by first-principles calculations using a pseudopotential plane-wave meth... The electronic structures and optical properties of B3 ZnO series of Zn4X4-yMy(X :O, S, Se or Te; M = N, Sb, C1 or I; y = 0 or 1) are studied by first-principles calculations using a pseudopotential plane-wave method. The results show that Zn d-X p orbital interactions play an important role in the p-type doping tendency in zinc-based Ⅱ-Ⅵ semiconductors. In ZnX, with increasing atomic number of X, Zn d-X p orbital interactions decrease and Zn s-X p orbital interactions increase. Additionally, substituting group-V elements for X will reduce the Zn d-X p orbital interactions while substituting group-VII elements for X will increase the Zn d-X p orbital interactions. The results also show that group-V-doped ZnX and group-Ⅷ-doped ZnX exhibit different optical behaviours due to their different orbital interaction effects. 展开更多
关键词 electronic structures optical properties pseudopotential plane-wave method p-type doping tendency
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ENSEMBLE PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF TYPHOON TRACK BASED ON THE STOCHASTIC TOTAL TENDENCY PERTURBATION 被引量:1
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作者 王晨稀 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2016年第3期305-317,共13页
The GRAPES-TCM is used to make ensemble prediction experiments for typhoon track.Three kinds of ensemble schemes are designed for the experiments.A total of 109 experiments are made for the nine typhoons in 2011 and t... The GRAPES-TCM is used to make ensemble prediction experiments for typhoon track.Three kinds of ensemble schemes are designed for the experiments.A total of 109 experiments are made for the nine typhoons in 2011 and the integral time is 72 h.The experiment results are shown as follows.In the three ensemble schemes,on the whole,scheme 1 has the best track prediction.Its average absolute track error and overall deviations of typhoon moving speed and moving direction are all the smallest in the three schemes.For both scheme 1 and scheme 2,they are all smaller than those of their control predictions.Both of their ensemble predictions show superiority to their deterministic predictions.Overall,compared with the observations,the typhoon moving directions of the three schemes mainly skew to the right,and in the late integration they mainly tend to be relatively slow.In the three schemes,the track dispersion of scheme 1 is the largest and that of scheme 3 the smallest.In scheme 1 it is much larger than in schemes 2 and 3.The difference of dispersion between scheme 2 and scheme 3 is small.The track dispersions of the three schemes are all much smaller than their rational dispersions.Compared with the eight domestic and overseas operational numerical weather prediction(NWP) models,scheme 1 has better predictions than the other seven operational models except ECMWF NWP model.Scheme 1 has the value of operational application. 展开更多
关键词 typhoon track ensemble scheme STOCHASTIC TOTAL tendency PERTURBATION
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Effect of condensation latent heat release on the relative vorticity tendency in extratropical cyclones:a case study 被引量:3
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作者 SHEN Yang SUN Yana LIU Duanyang 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 CSCD 2020年第4期275-285,共11页
Taking an extratropical cyclone that produced extreme precipitation as the research object,this paper calculates the contribution of condensation latent heat release(LHR)to relative vorticity tendency based on the com... Taking an extratropical cyclone that produced extreme precipitation as the research object,this paper calculates the contribution of condensation latent heat release(LHR)to relative vorticity tendency based on the complete-form vertical vorticity tendency equation.The results show that the heating rate of convectional condensation LHR can reach up to about 40 times that of stable condensation LHR.Both the stable and convectional heating centers are higher than 700 hPa,which would cause∂Q/∂z>0 and a positive vorticity source in the lower troposphere.The vertical gradient of stable condensation LHR contributes little to the growth of relative vorticity,while the relative vorticity tendency associated with the vertical gradient of convectional condensation LHR can be an order of magnitude higher than the former.The positive vorticity source is always located right below the latent heating center,and its maximum value can always be found in the lower troposphere.Convectional LHR is the primary factor for cyclone development from the perspective of diabatic heating.The horizontal gradient of total condensation LHR can contribute about 65%of the actual vorticity growth,but the effect of the vertical gradient of convectional condensation(LHR)can reach twice as much.The adiabatic heating from LHR can cause vorticity tendency directly.However,it can also change the vertical and horizontal gradient of potential temperature,which can further induce vorticity tendency. 展开更多
关键词 Complete-form vertical vorticity tendency equation stable condensation latent heat convectional condensation latent heat vorticity tendency
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Deformation and Development Tendency of Shiliushubao Landslide by Numerical Modeling 被引量:1
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作者 LI Xiuzhen KONG Jiming XU Qiang 《Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences》 EI CAS 2006年第4期840-846,共7页
On the basis of analysing basic features of Shiliushubao landslide, the landslide's deformation and development tendency are quantitatively studied by using FLA^3D program. The results accord with monitoring results.... On the basis of analysing basic features of Shiliushubao landslide, the landslide's deformation and development tendency are quantitatively studied by using FLA^3D program. The results accord with monitoring results. The results are indicated that resevoir impounding accelerates the landslide's deformation, and the variation of reservoir water level is key factor of affecting the deformation; The landslide has the characters of pull-behind move ment according to the displacement of the landslide body gradually reducing from leading edge to trailing edge; Excavating and deloading slow down the landslide's deformation in the certain degree. On the basis, the deformation developmental tendency of Shiliushubao landslide is predicted by the established simulating model. 展开更多
关键词 Shiliushubao landslide deformation rule develop ment tendency numerical modeling
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