The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 advocated the reduction of maternal mortality rates significantly by 2015, however, maternal mortality rates continue to rise. Here, we modelled maternal mortality data for the ...The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 advocated the reduction of maternal mortality rates significantly by 2015, however, maternal mortality rates continue to rise. Here, we modelled maternal mortality data for the years 2000 to 2013 obtained from a public hospital in Kumasi, Ghana. We applied the Box-Jenkins approach of univariate form of time series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The output revealed that the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was most appropriate to model and predict monthly maternal cases with Akaike information criterion (AIC) value of 117.02 and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) value of 125.91. The Shapiro-Wilk normality test confirmed normality of the residuals. The Ljung-Box test on the residuals showed no serial correlation. The model was then validated based on the measures of accuracy. The results showed that the maternal mortality cases for the years 2000 to 2011 are high: minimum 3, median 11, mean 12 and maximum cases of 26 per month. The predicted mortality cases were 10 to 11 monthly for years 2012 to 2013, indicating that the target of MDG 5 could not be achieved by 2015. Fresh and perceptive strategies are urgently needed to arrest the unacceptably high death rates.展开更多
In this paper,we consider the maximal positive definite solution of the nonlinear matrix equation.By using the idea of Algorithm 2.1 in ZHANG(2013),a new inversion-free method with a stepsize parameter is proposed to ...In this paper,we consider the maximal positive definite solution of the nonlinear matrix equation.By using the idea of Algorithm 2.1 in ZHANG(2013),a new inversion-free method with a stepsize parameter is proposed to obtain the maximal positive definite solution of nonlinear matrix equation X+A^(*)X|^(-α)A=Q with the case 0<α≤1.Based on this method,a new iterative algorithm is developed,and its convergence proof is given.Finally,two numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
In this paper,a novel method for investigating the particle-crushing behavior of breeding particles in a fusion blanket is proposed.The fractal theory and Weibull distribution are combined to establish a theoretical m...In this paper,a novel method for investigating the particle-crushing behavior of breeding particles in a fusion blanket is proposed.The fractal theory and Weibull distribution are combined to establish a theoretical model,and its validity was verified using a simple impact test.A crushable discrete element method(DEM)framework is built based on the previously established theoretical model.The tensile strength,which considers the fractal theory,size effect,and Weibull variation,was assigned to each generated particle.The assigned strength is then used for crush detection by comparing it with its maximum tensile stress.Mass conservation is ensured by inserting a series of sub-particles whose total mass was equal to the quality loss.Based on the crushable DEM framework,a numerical simulation of the crushing behavior of a pebble bed with hollow cylindrical geometry under a uniaxial compression test was performed.The results of this investigation showed that the particle withstands the external load by contact and sliding at the beginning of the compression process,and the results confirmed that crushing can be considered an important method of resisting the increasing external load.A relatively regular particle arrangement aids in resisting the load and reduces the occurrence of particle crushing.However,a limit exists to the promotion of resistance.When the strain increases beyond this limit,the distribution of the crushing position tends to be isotropic over the entire pebble bed.The theoretical model and crushable DEM framework provide a new method for exploring the pebble bed in a fusion reactor,considering particle crushing.展开更多
Effective partitioning is crucial for enabling parallel restoration of power systems after blackouts.This paper proposes a novel partitioning method based on deep reinforcement learning.First,the partitioning decision...Effective partitioning is crucial for enabling parallel restoration of power systems after blackouts.This paper proposes a novel partitioning method based on deep reinforcement learning.First,the partitioning decision process is formulated as a Markov decision process(MDP)model to maximize the modularity.Corresponding key partitioning constraints on parallel restoration are considered.Second,based on the partitioning objective and constraints,the reward function of the partitioning MDP model is set by adopting a relative deviation normalization scheme to reduce mutual interference between the reward and penalty in the reward function.The soft bonus scaling mechanism is introduced to mitigate overestimation caused by abrupt jumps in the reward.Then,the deep Q network method is applied to solve the partitioning MDP model and generate partitioning schemes.Two experience replay buffers are employed to speed up the training process of the method.Finally,case studies on the IEEE 39-bus test system demonstrate that the proposed method can generate a high-modularity partitioning result that meets all key partitioning constraints,thereby improving the parallelism and reliability of the restoration process.Moreover,simulation results demonstrate that an appropriate discount factor is crucial for ensuring both the convergence speed and the stability of the partitioning training.展开更多
The application of nitrogen fertilizers in agricultural fields can lead to the release of nitrogen-containing gases(NCGs),such as NO_(x),NH_(3) and N_(2)O,which can significantly impact regional atmospheric environmen...The application of nitrogen fertilizers in agricultural fields can lead to the release of nitrogen-containing gases(NCGs),such as NO_(x),NH_(3) and N_(2)O,which can significantly impact regional atmospheric environment and con-tribute to global climate change.However,there remain considerable research gaps in the accurate measurement of NCGs emissions from agricultural fields,hindering the development of effective emission reduction strategies.We improved an open-top dynamic chambers(OTDCs)system and evaluated the performance by comparing the measured and given fluxes of the NCGs.The results showed that the measured fluxes of NO,N_(2)O and NH_(3)were 1%,2%and 7%lower than the given fluxes,respectively.For the determination of NH_(3) concentration,we employed a stripping coil-ion chromatograph(SC-IC)analytical technique,which demonstrated an absorption efficiency for atmospheric NH_(3) exceeding 96.1%across sampling durations of 6 to 60 min.In the summer maize season,we utilized the OTDCs system to measure the exchange fluxes of NO,NH_(3),and N_(2)O from the soil in the North China Plain.Substantial emissions of NO,NH_(3) and N_(2)O were recorded following fertilization,with peaks of 107,309,1239 ng N/(m^(2)·s),respectively.Notably,significant NCGs emissions were observed following sus-tained heavy rainfall one month after fertilization,particularly with NH_(3) peak being 4.5 times higher than that observed immediately after fertilization.Our results demonstrate that the OTDCs system accurately reflects the emission characteristics of soil NCGs and meets the requirements for long-term and continuous flux observation.展开更多
Marine thin plates are susceptible to welding deformation owing to their low structural stiffness.Therefore,the efficient and accurate prediction of welding deformation is essential for improving welding quality.The t...Marine thin plates are susceptible to welding deformation owing to their low structural stiffness.Therefore,the efficient and accurate prediction of welding deformation is essential for improving welding quality.The traditional thermal elastic-plastic finite element method(TEP-FEM)can accurately predict welding deformation.However,its efficiency is low because of the complex nonlinear transient computation,making it difficult to meet the needs of rapid engineering evaluation.To address this challenge,this study proposes an efficient prediction method for welding deformation in marine thin plate butt welds.This method is based on the coupled temperature gradient-thermal strain method(TG-TSM)that integrates inherent strain theory with a shell element finite element model.The proposed method first extracts the distribution pattern and characteristic value of welding-induced inherent strain through TEP-FEM analysis.This strain is then converted into the equivalent thermal load applied to the shell element model for rapid computation.The proposed method-particularly,the gradual temperature gradient-thermal strain method(GTG-TSM)-achieved improved computational efficiency and consistent precision.Furthermore,the proposed method required much less computation time than the traditional TEP-FEM.Thus,this study lays the foundation for future prediction of welding deformation in more complex marine thin plates.展开更多
At present,there is currently a lack of unified standard methods for the determination of antimony content in groundwater in China.The precision and trueness of related detection technologies have not yet been systema...At present,there is currently a lack of unified standard methods for the determination of antimony content in groundwater in China.The precision and trueness of related detection technologies have not yet been systematically and quantitatively evaluated,which limits the effective implementation of environmental monitoring.In response to this key technical gap,this study aimed to establish a standardized method for determining antimony in groundwater using Hydride Generation–Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry(HG-AFS).Ten laboratories participated in inter-laboratory collaborative tests,and the statistical analysis of the test data was carried out in strict accordance with the technical specifications of GB/T 6379.2—2004 and GB/T 6379.4—2006.The consistency and outliers of the data were tested by Mandel's h and k statistics,the Grubbs test and the Cochran test,and the outliers were removed to optimize the data,thereby significantly improving the reliability and accuracy.Based on the optimized data,parameters such as the repeatability limit(r),reproducibility limit(R),and method bias value(δ)were determined,and the trueness of the method was statistically evaluated.At the same time,precision-function relationships were established,and all results met the requirements.The results show that the lower the antimony content,the lower the repeatability limit(r)and reproducibility limit(R),indicating that the measurement error mainly originates from the detection limit of the method and instrument sensitivity.Therefore,improving the instrument sensitivity and reducing the detection limit are the keys to controlling the analytical error and improving precision.This study provides reliable data support and a solid technical foundation for the establishment and evaluation of standardized methods for the determination of antimony content in groundwater.展开更多
Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been success...Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been successfully used in a number of problem domains in time series forecasting. Due to power and flexibility, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model has gained enormous popularity in many areas and research practice for the last three decades. More recently, the neural networks have been shown to be a promising alternative tool for modeling and forecasting owing to their ability to capture the nonlinearity in the data. However, despite the popularity and the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models, the empirical forecasting performance has been rather mixed so that no single method is best in every situation. In this study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural networks model to time series forecasting is proposed. The basic idea behind the model combination is to use each model’s unique features to capture different patterns in the data. With three real data sets, empirical results evidently show that the hybrid model outperforms ARIMA and ANN model noticeably in terms of forecasting accuracy used in isolation.展开更多
In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitt...In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.展开更多
文摘The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 advocated the reduction of maternal mortality rates significantly by 2015, however, maternal mortality rates continue to rise. Here, we modelled maternal mortality data for the years 2000 to 2013 obtained from a public hospital in Kumasi, Ghana. We applied the Box-Jenkins approach of univariate form of time series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The output revealed that the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was most appropriate to model and predict monthly maternal cases with Akaike information criterion (AIC) value of 117.02 and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) value of 125.91. The Shapiro-Wilk normality test confirmed normality of the residuals. The Ljung-Box test on the residuals showed no serial correlation. The model was then validated based on the measures of accuracy. The results showed that the maternal mortality cases for the years 2000 to 2011 are high: minimum 3, median 11, mean 12 and maximum cases of 26 per month. The predicted mortality cases were 10 to 11 monthly for years 2012 to 2013, indicating that the target of MDG 5 could not be achieved by 2015. Fresh and perceptive strategies are urgently needed to arrest the unacceptably high death rates.
基金Supported in part by Natural Science Foundation of Guangxi(2023GXNSFAA026246)in part by the Central Government's Guide to Local Science and Technology Development Fund(GuikeZY23055044)in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62363003)。
文摘In this paper,we consider the maximal positive definite solution of the nonlinear matrix equation.By using the idea of Algorithm 2.1 in ZHANG(2013),a new inversion-free method with a stepsize parameter is proposed to obtain the maximal positive definite solution of nonlinear matrix equation X+A^(*)X|^(-α)A=Q with the case 0<α≤1.Based on this method,a new iterative algorithm is developed,and its convergence proof is given.Finally,two numerical examples are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金supported by Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation(2408085QA030)Natural Science Research Project of Anhui Educational Committee,China(2022AH050825)+3 种基金Medical Special Cultivation Project of Anhui University of Science and Technology(YZ2023H2C008)the Excellent Research and Innovation Team of Anhui Province,China(2022AH010052)the Scientific Research Foundation for High-level Talents of Anhui University of Science and Technology,China(2021yjrc51)Collaborative Innovation Program of Hefei Science Center,CAS,China(2019HSC-CIP006).
文摘In this paper,a novel method for investigating the particle-crushing behavior of breeding particles in a fusion blanket is proposed.The fractal theory and Weibull distribution are combined to establish a theoretical model,and its validity was verified using a simple impact test.A crushable discrete element method(DEM)framework is built based on the previously established theoretical model.The tensile strength,which considers the fractal theory,size effect,and Weibull variation,was assigned to each generated particle.The assigned strength is then used for crush detection by comparing it with its maximum tensile stress.Mass conservation is ensured by inserting a series of sub-particles whose total mass was equal to the quality loss.Based on the crushable DEM framework,a numerical simulation of the crushing behavior of a pebble bed with hollow cylindrical geometry under a uniaxial compression test was performed.The results of this investigation showed that the particle withstands the external load by contact and sliding at the beginning of the compression process,and the results confirmed that crushing can be considered an important method of resisting the increasing external load.A relatively regular particle arrangement aids in resisting the load and reduces the occurrence of particle crushing.However,a limit exists to the promotion of resistance.When the strain increases beyond this limit,the distribution of the crushing position tends to be isotropic over the entire pebble bed.The theoretical model and crushable DEM framework provide a new method for exploring the pebble bed in a fusion reactor,considering particle crushing.
基金funded by the Beijing Engineering Research Center of Electric Rail Transportation.
文摘Effective partitioning is crucial for enabling parallel restoration of power systems after blackouts.This paper proposes a novel partitioning method based on deep reinforcement learning.First,the partitioning decision process is formulated as a Markov decision process(MDP)model to maximize the modularity.Corresponding key partitioning constraints on parallel restoration are considered.Second,based on the partitioning objective and constraints,the reward function of the partitioning MDP model is set by adopting a relative deviation normalization scheme to reduce mutual interference between the reward and penalty in the reward function.The soft bonus scaling mechanism is introduced to mitigate overestimation caused by abrupt jumps in the reward.Then,the deep Q network method is applied to solve the partitioning MDP model and generate partitioning schemes.Two experience replay buffers are employed to speed up the training process of the method.Finally,case studies on the IEEE 39-bus test system demonstrate that the proposed method can generate a high-modularity partitioning result that meets all key partitioning constraints,thereby improving the parallelism and reliability of the restoration process.Moreover,simulation results demonstrate that an appropriate discount factor is crucial for ensuring both the convergence speed and the stability of the partitioning training.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Develop-ment Program(No.2022YFC3701103)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42130714 and 41931287).
文摘The application of nitrogen fertilizers in agricultural fields can lead to the release of nitrogen-containing gases(NCGs),such as NO_(x),NH_(3) and N_(2)O,which can significantly impact regional atmospheric environment and con-tribute to global climate change.However,there remain considerable research gaps in the accurate measurement of NCGs emissions from agricultural fields,hindering the development of effective emission reduction strategies.We improved an open-top dynamic chambers(OTDCs)system and evaluated the performance by comparing the measured and given fluxes of the NCGs.The results showed that the measured fluxes of NO,N_(2)O and NH_(3)were 1%,2%and 7%lower than the given fluxes,respectively.For the determination of NH_(3) concentration,we employed a stripping coil-ion chromatograph(SC-IC)analytical technique,which demonstrated an absorption efficiency for atmospheric NH_(3) exceeding 96.1%across sampling durations of 6 to 60 min.In the summer maize season,we utilized the OTDCs system to measure the exchange fluxes of NO,NH_(3),and N_(2)O from the soil in the North China Plain.Substantial emissions of NO,NH_(3) and N_(2)O were recorded following fertilization,with peaks of 107,309,1239 ng N/(m^(2)·s),respectively.Notably,significant NCGs emissions were observed following sus-tained heavy rainfall one month after fertilization,particularly with NH_(3) peak being 4.5 times higher than that observed immediately after fertilization.Our results demonstrate that the OTDCs system accurately reflects the emission characteristics of soil NCGs and meets the requirements for long-term and continuous flux observation.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.51975138the High-Tech Ship Scientific Research Project from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology under Grant No.CJ05N20the National Defense Basic Research Project under Grant No.JCKY2023604C006.
文摘Marine thin plates are susceptible to welding deformation owing to their low structural stiffness.Therefore,the efficient and accurate prediction of welding deformation is essential for improving welding quality.The traditional thermal elastic-plastic finite element method(TEP-FEM)can accurately predict welding deformation.However,its efficiency is low because of the complex nonlinear transient computation,making it difficult to meet the needs of rapid engineering evaluation.To address this challenge,this study proposes an efficient prediction method for welding deformation in marine thin plate butt welds.This method is based on the coupled temperature gradient-thermal strain method(TG-TSM)that integrates inherent strain theory with a shell element finite element model.The proposed method first extracts the distribution pattern and characteristic value of welding-induced inherent strain through TEP-FEM analysis.This strain is then converted into the equivalent thermal load applied to the shell element model for rapid computation.The proposed method-particularly,the gradual temperature gradient-thermal strain method(GTG-TSM)-achieved improved computational efficiency and consistent precision.Furthermore,the proposed method required much less computation time than the traditional TEP-FEM.Thus,this study lays the foundation for future prediction of welding deformation in more complex marine thin plates.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Project No.42307555).
文摘At present,there is currently a lack of unified standard methods for the determination of antimony content in groundwater in China.The precision and trueness of related detection technologies have not yet been systematically and quantitatively evaluated,which limits the effective implementation of environmental monitoring.In response to this key technical gap,this study aimed to establish a standardized method for determining antimony in groundwater using Hydride Generation–Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry(HG-AFS).Ten laboratories participated in inter-laboratory collaborative tests,and the statistical analysis of the test data was carried out in strict accordance with the technical specifications of GB/T 6379.2—2004 and GB/T 6379.4—2006.The consistency and outliers of the data were tested by Mandel's h and k statistics,the Grubbs test and the Cochran test,and the outliers were removed to optimize the data,thereby significantly improving the reliability and accuracy.Based on the optimized data,parameters such as the repeatability limit(r),reproducibility limit(R),and method bias value(δ)were determined,and the trueness of the method was statistically evaluated.At the same time,precision-function relationships were established,and all results met the requirements.The results show that the lower the antimony content,the lower the repeatability limit(r)and reproducibility limit(R),indicating that the measurement error mainly originates from the detection limit of the method and instrument sensitivity.Therefore,improving the instrument sensitivity and reducing the detection limit are the keys to controlling the analytical error and improving precision.This study provides reliable data support and a solid technical foundation for the establishment and evaluation of standardized methods for the determination of antimony content in groundwater.
文摘Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been successfully used in a number of problem domains in time series forecasting. Due to power and flexibility, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model has gained enormous popularity in many areas and research practice for the last three decades. More recently, the neural networks have been shown to be a promising alternative tool for modeling and forecasting owing to their ability to capture the nonlinearity in the data. However, despite the popularity and the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models, the empirical forecasting performance has been rather mixed so that no single method is best in every situation. In this study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural networks model to time series forecasting is proposed. The basic idea behind the model combination is to use each model’s unique features to capture different patterns in the data. With three real data sets, empirical results evidently show that the hybrid model outperforms ARIMA and ANN model noticeably in terms of forecasting accuracy used in isolation.
文摘In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.
