Purpose-This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the Brazilian freight railway system,examining the efficacy of the current concession renewal model in light of persistent structural problems such as market con...Purpose-This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the Brazilian freight railway system,examining the efficacy of the current concession renewal model in light of persistent structural problems such as market concentration,cargo dependence on export commodities and underutilization of the network.Situating Brazil within the broader international debate on railway reforms,the paper evaluates whether the ongoing early renewal of concessions can deliver a more diversified and competitive freight system.Design/methodology/approach-The study adopts a sequential mixed-methods research design that integrates longitudinal quantitative analysis with qualitative institutional and policy evaluation.The quantitative component examines time-series indicators published by ANTT,DNIT and INFRA S.A.from 1999 to 2023 to identify structural patterns in traffic growth,investment,safety and market concentration.The qualitative component employs a process-tracing logic to reconstruct the evolution of concession renewals and the implementation of Railway Law 14.273/2021,drawing on concepts from regulatory economics,institutional theory and industrial organization.These empirical streams are synthesized through an analytical framework that connects three dimensions-regulatory design,market structure and system performance-allowing for a systematic assessment of how Brazil’s institutional configuration shapes incentives,competitive dynamics and network utilization.Findings-The analysis confirms that the early renewal of concessions has successfully secured substantial private investment for capacity expansion on existing trunk lines.However,it has perpetuated the vertically integrated model,reinforcing the market power of incumbent operators and failing to significantly promote intramodal competition or cargo diversification.The system remains dominated by iron ore and agricultural commodities,with general cargo representing a minuscule share.The new authorization regime and short-line railway policies present a viable pathway for market opening but face significant operational and institutional barriers to implementation.Originality/value-This research offers a timely and critical assessment of a pivotal moment in Brazilian railway policy.It moves beyond a simplistic evaluation of volume growth to a structural analysis of market failures and the interplay between concession renewal and regulatory innovation.The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers in Brazil and other emerging economies seeking to balance private investment with public interest goals in railway infrastructure,highlighting the necessity of complementary,pro-competitive measures alongside financial investment.展开更多
光伏储能接入铁路牵引供电系统对推动节能减排、提升系统效能具有重要意义,然而当前全国铁路沿线光储项目虽投资潜力巨大,却尚未形成成熟的商业模式。为此,本文旨在研究适用于牵引供电光储系统的合同能源管理机制及其收益分配方法,以促...光伏储能接入铁路牵引供电系统对推动节能减排、提升系统效能具有重要意义,然而当前全国铁路沿线光储项目虽投资潜力巨大,却尚未形成成熟的商业模式。为此,本文旨在研究适用于牵引供电光储系统的合同能源管理机制及其收益分配方法,以促进该领域的商业化推广。本文提出将节能效益分享型合同能源管理应用于牵引供电光储系统,明确铁路部门(railroad department,RD)与节能服务公司(energy service company,ESCo)作为核心利益相关方。ESCo负责项目投资建设与运营,并通过分享节能收益回收成本并盈利;RD则以低风险方式使用清洁电力,实现能效提升目标。在此基础上,构建基于风险系数修正的Stackelberg收益分配模型,以ESCo初始投资成本和节能效益分享比例为变量,引入风险修正因子反映双方在管理、技术及市场等方面的风险差异,从而优化收益分配的合理性与可接受性。通过对某牵引所算例进行仿真分析,验证模型的有效性。仿真结果表明,所提出的收益分配方法能够在满足RD用电经济性需求的同时,确保ESCo获得预期的投资回报,验证了该模型在实践中的可行性与有效性。此外,研究还分析了储能单元及变流器等接口设备成本变动对合同能源管理项目经济效益的敏感度,为成本优化及政策支持提供了重要参考。研究表明,基于风险修正的合同能源管理模式能够有效推动铁路牵引供电光储系统的商业化应用。未来可通过设备成本优化与政策引导,进一步提升项目的经济性与推广价值。展开更多
文摘Purpose-This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the Brazilian freight railway system,examining the efficacy of the current concession renewal model in light of persistent structural problems such as market concentration,cargo dependence on export commodities and underutilization of the network.Situating Brazil within the broader international debate on railway reforms,the paper evaluates whether the ongoing early renewal of concessions can deliver a more diversified and competitive freight system.Design/methodology/approach-The study adopts a sequential mixed-methods research design that integrates longitudinal quantitative analysis with qualitative institutional and policy evaluation.The quantitative component examines time-series indicators published by ANTT,DNIT and INFRA S.A.from 1999 to 2023 to identify structural patterns in traffic growth,investment,safety and market concentration.The qualitative component employs a process-tracing logic to reconstruct the evolution of concession renewals and the implementation of Railway Law 14.273/2021,drawing on concepts from regulatory economics,institutional theory and industrial organization.These empirical streams are synthesized through an analytical framework that connects three dimensions-regulatory design,market structure and system performance-allowing for a systematic assessment of how Brazil’s institutional configuration shapes incentives,competitive dynamics and network utilization.Findings-The analysis confirms that the early renewal of concessions has successfully secured substantial private investment for capacity expansion on existing trunk lines.However,it has perpetuated the vertically integrated model,reinforcing the market power of incumbent operators and failing to significantly promote intramodal competition or cargo diversification.The system remains dominated by iron ore and agricultural commodities,with general cargo representing a minuscule share.The new authorization regime and short-line railway policies present a viable pathway for market opening but face significant operational and institutional barriers to implementation.Originality/value-This research offers a timely and critical assessment of a pivotal moment in Brazilian railway policy.It moves beyond a simplistic evaluation of volume growth to a structural analysis of market failures and the interplay between concession renewal and regulatory innovation.The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers in Brazil and other emerging economies seeking to balance private investment with public interest goals in railway infrastructure,highlighting the necessity of complementary,pro-competitive measures alongside financial investment.
文摘光伏储能接入铁路牵引供电系统对推动节能减排、提升系统效能具有重要意义,然而当前全国铁路沿线光储项目虽投资潜力巨大,却尚未形成成熟的商业模式。为此,本文旨在研究适用于牵引供电光储系统的合同能源管理机制及其收益分配方法,以促进该领域的商业化推广。本文提出将节能效益分享型合同能源管理应用于牵引供电光储系统,明确铁路部门(railroad department,RD)与节能服务公司(energy service company,ESCo)作为核心利益相关方。ESCo负责项目投资建设与运营,并通过分享节能收益回收成本并盈利;RD则以低风险方式使用清洁电力,实现能效提升目标。在此基础上,构建基于风险系数修正的Stackelberg收益分配模型,以ESCo初始投资成本和节能效益分享比例为变量,引入风险修正因子反映双方在管理、技术及市场等方面的风险差异,从而优化收益分配的合理性与可接受性。通过对某牵引所算例进行仿真分析,验证模型的有效性。仿真结果表明,所提出的收益分配方法能够在满足RD用电经济性需求的同时,确保ESCo获得预期的投资回报,验证了该模型在实践中的可行性与有效性。此外,研究还分析了储能单元及变流器等接口设备成本变动对合同能源管理项目经济效益的敏感度,为成本优化及政策支持提供了重要参考。研究表明,基于风险修正的合同能源管理模式能够有效推动铁路牵引供电光储系统的商业化应用。未来可通过设备成本优化与政策引导,进一步提升项目的经济性与推广价值。
